Tag: Cincinnati Reds odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Los Angeles Dodgers (94-53) travel to the Great American Ball Park Friday to begin a three-game series with the Cincinnati Reds (76-71) at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Dodgers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Reds lead 2-1.

RHP Walker Buehler is L.A.’s projected starter. Buehler is 14-3 with a 2.32 ERA (186 IP, 48 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 across 29 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 5-4, with 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 5 K Saturday vs. the San Diego Padres.
  • Buehler got a no-decision against Cincy with 6 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 10 K in L.A.’s 6-5 loss April 27.
  • vs. Reds on the current roster (70 PA): 2.73 FIP with a .227 batting average (BA), .269 wOBA, .398 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 28.6 K% and 88.0 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Luis Castillo makes his 31st start for the Reds. Castillo is 7-15 with a 4.24 ERA (170 IP, 80 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision in Cincy’s 6-4 loss at the St. Louis Cardinals Saturday with 7 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
  • vs. Dodgers on the current roster: (37 PA): 2.47 FIP with a .188 BA, .265 wOBA, .296 xSLG, 37.8 K% and 84.6 mph EV.

Dodgers at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Dodgers -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Reds +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (+100) | Reds +1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -108 | U:-112)

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Prediction

Reds 4, Dodgers 2

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Reds (+140) because I like them on the run line and Castillo has been at his best in September throughout his career while Buehler’s September numbers have been subpar.

September is Castillo’s best month by winning percentage (62.5%), ERA (2.60) and WHIP (0.97) of any monthly split throughout his career. On the other hand, September is Buehler’s second-worst month by ERA (3.52) and WHIP (1.09) and worst by K/BB (3.2).

Ultimately, Cincy’s run line is the better play because the Reds are playing their standard fall baseball (5-9 in September) and L.A. is heating up as the postseason nears (10-4 in September).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the REDS +1.5 (-120) since there’s an obvious “line freeze” in the betting market but Cincy is just 3-9 ATS as a home underdog.

Roughly 95% of the action is on L.A.’s run line according to pregame.com, but the consensus price hasn’t budged, which is a red flag. You’d think oddsmakers would be making the Dodgers a little more expensive but sportsbooks seem to be enticing more L.A. action. Let’s jump on the same side as the house.

Over/Under (O/U)

GIMME UNDER 8.5 (-112) because Cincy has struggled at the plate in September, but has been the best bullpen in baseball this month and Buehler is a pitcher I’ve been high on for years now.

Cincy’s bullpen is leading the majors in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB% in September. However, Reds hitters rank in the bottom 10 of wRC+, WAR, wOBA and hard-hit rate over that span. Also, Buehler has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 23 of his 29 starts this season and has 25 quality starts.

Furthermore, there’s more money on the Under but more bets placed on the Over so the Under feels like the sharper play. That said, the Over is more expensive, which suggests the House is trying to goad more pro-Under bets.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Pittsburgh Pirates (53-91) host the Cincinnati Reds (75-70) Wednesday for the second game of their three-game series at PNC Park with the first pitch scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Reds vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Pittsburgh took Tuesday’s series opener 6-5 as the Pirates’ 6-run lead after the fifth inning was too much for the Reds to overcome.

Also see: 2021 World Series odds for all teams

Season series: Reds lead 9-2.

RHP Vladimir Gutiérrez is Cincinnati’s projected starter. He is 9-6 with a 4.05 ERA (104 1/3 IP, 47 ER), 3.3 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 across 19 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in Cincy’s 4-1 loss at the Chicago Cubs Sept. 8, with a stat line of 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 2 BB and 6 K.
  • Gutiérrez beat Pittsburgh, 11-3, Aug. 7, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 6 K.

RHP Mitch Keller gets the nod for the Pirates. He is 4-11 with a 6.29 ERA (83 IP, 58 ER), 1.77 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 over 19 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5-1, with 5 IP, 4 ER, 10 H, 1 BB and 6 K Sept. 8 against the Detroit Tigers.
  • Keller is 0-2 with 8 1/3 IP, 11 ER, 14 H, 6 BB and 6 K in two starts against the Reds this season.
  • vs. Reds on the current roster (73 PA): 8.53 FIP with a .345 average, .465 wOBA, .465 xSLG, 24.7 K% and 91.8 mph exit velocity.

Reds at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Pirates +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds -1.5 (+110) | Pirates +1.5 (-135)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Reds 9, Pirates 4

Money line (ML)

The “reverse line movement” headed in Pittsburgh’s direction gives this contest a “trap game” feel so I’ll just “LEAN” to the REDS (-145) for a half unit.

According to Pregame.com at the time of writing, more than 85% of the action is on the Reds but the Pirates have gone from a +143 consensus underdog to the listed price. It’s always a red flag in sports betting when the House makes the more popular side cheaper.

However, it’s hard to figure out how the Pirates win this game against a Cincinnati team motivated by still being in the playoff hunt and that has owned Pittsburgh this season.

Furthermore, Gutiérrez is more effective away from Cincy’s notoriously hitter-friendly ballpark and Keller has gotten raked in Pittsburgh. Gutiérrez has a 3.43 road ERA (4.91 ERA at home), 1.21 road WHIP (1.43 WHIP at home) and a .672 opponent OPS (.889 opponent’s OPS at home).

Keller is 2-8 at home with an 8.19 ERA (3.63 road ERA), 2.05 WHIP (1.39 road WHIP) and 1.6 K/BB (3.2 K/BB on the road).

Lastly, Cincy’s lineup is significantly more productive than Pittsburgh’s and the Reds bullpen has hovered around the top-10 of several advanced pitching metrics following the All-Star break, whereas Pirates relievers have gotten roughed up all season.

“LEAN” REDS (-145) for a half unit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because we have a “pros vs. joes” situation in the betting market with the presumed “sharp” money backing the Pirates +1.5 (-135) and the public is betting on the Reds -1.5 (+110).

Oddsmakers have reacted to the money column and have made Pittsburgh’s run line more expensive since the opener.

In sports betting, it’s not very profitable to fade the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.

Plus, the Reds are 8-20 ATS as road favorites and the lowly Pirates are still 34-29 ATS as home underdogs.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-130) for a half unit because eight of the last 10 Reds-Pirates meeting went Over the projected total and Pittsburgh is sending out one of the most poorly graded starting pitchers in the NL.

Keller grades in the second percentile in hard-hit rate, third percentile in exit velocity, 21st percentile in xSLG, 11th percentile in xwOBA and 19th percentile in chase rate.

If Cincy’s lineup cannot rake Keller then it’ll have plenty of chances against this bottom rung Pittsburgh bullpen.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (74-67) visit the St. Louis Cardinals (71-68) Friday to start a three-game series at Busch Stadium with first pitch scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Reds vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Reds lead 9-7.

RHP Tyler Mahle is on the rubber for the Reds. Mahle is 11-5 with a 3.76 ERA (153 1/3 IP, 64 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 over 28 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 7-4, with 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 5 BB and 8 K Saturday vs. the Detroit Tigers.
  • Mahle is 2-0 this season against St. Louis with a 3.18 ERA (17 IP, 6 ER), 14 H, 7 BB and 22 K in three starts.
  • vs. Cardinals on the current roster (171 PA): 4.53 FIP with a .234 batting average (BA), .308 wOBA, .412 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 24.6 K% and 87.4 mph exit velocity (EV).

LHP Jon Lester is St. Louis’s projected starter. Lester is 5-6 with a 4.89 ERA (112 1/3 IP, 61 ER), 1.58 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 5.6 K/9 in 23 starts for the Cardinals and the Washington Nationals.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 2 K in St. Louis’s 6-5 loss at the Milwaukee Brewers Sunday.
  • Lester beat Cincy, 3-1, Aug. 30 with a stat line of 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 5 K.
  • vs. Reds on the current roster (253 PA): 4.78 FIP with a .249 BA, .324 wOBA, .439 xSLG, 20.6 K% and 87.2 mph EV.

Reds at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:57 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Cardinals +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds -1.5 (+133) | Cardinals +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Prediction

Cardinals 5, Reds 2

Money line (ML)

There was a heavy discrepancy between the “pros” and “joes” in the early morning action report that shaped the line most of us are looking at currently.

Two-thirds of the cash was on the Cardinals’ money line but nearly 60% of all bets placed were with the Reds, according to Pregame.com.

However, the oddsmakers sided with the presumed “sharp” money and have moved the line slightly in St. Louis’s direction, which started with the Reds laying -135 on the consensus money line.

I’d guess the sharp line movement is due to the fact that Cincy’s lineup ranks 28th in wRC+, 26th in wOBA and the sixth-highest K% against left-handed pitching.

St. Louis’s lineup has hit much better than Cincy’s recently. The Cardinals have a 111 wRC+ (ranked seventh in MLB), 3.6 WAR (ranked fourth) and .334 wOBA (ranked eighth) over the last two weeks. Whereas the Reds rank 21st or 22nd in each of those metrics in that timespan.

BET 1 unit on the CARDINALS (+102).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Cardinals +1.5 (-165) because I like St. Louis’s money line and would love to get some insurance for that bet.

However, the Cardinals are 13-11 ATS as home underdogs and the Reds are 7-17 ATS as road favorites so I’d entertain throwing St. Louis’s run line in a parlay with a similarly priced side. But, as a standalone wager at this price point, PASS.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-122) for a tiny wager only because I much prefer the Cardinals outright than the total in this contest.

That said, Cincy’s lineup struggles to produce against lefties, St. Louis’s lineup is below-average across several advanced hitting categories and Mahle is a lot more effective on the road than at home.

For example, Mahle is 7-2 in 15 road starts this season with a 1.90 ERA (6.09 home ERA), 0.98 WHIP (1.50 home WHIP) and 3.6 K/BB (3.2 K/BB at home). In fact, Mahle has given up 4 home runs in his two home starts against the Cardinals this year and no homer in his start in St. Louis.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (64-75) host the Cincinnati Reds (73-66) Tuesday for the second game of their three-game series at Wrigley Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Reds vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Chicago upset Cincy in the series opener 4-3. The Cubs came out the gate with a 3-run bottom of the 1st before the Reds tied the game with a 3-run top of the 6th but Chicago 1B Frank Schwindel‘s go-ahead RBI single in the bottom of the 8th was the difference-maker.

Season series: Reds lead 10-7.

LHP Wade Miley gets the nod for the Reds. Miley is 11-5 with a 2.97 ERA (148 2/3 IP, 49 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 25 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5-4, with 4 IP, 5 ER, 12 H, 1 BB and 2 K vs. the St. Louis Cardinals Wednesday.
  • Miley is 2-0 against Chicago this season with a 2.74 ERA (23 IP, 7 ER), 1.52 WHIP and 1.7 K/BB in four starts.
  • vs. Cubs on the current roster (120 PA): 2.58 FIP with a .239 batting average (BA), .284 wOBA, .338 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 15.8 K% and 85.4 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Adrian Sampson is Chicago’s projected starter. Sampson is 0-1 with a 1.59 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 2 ER) with 10 H, 2 BB and 11 K across one start and four relief appearances.

  • Sampson got a no-decision in Chicago’s 7-1 win in Cincy Aug. 18 in his only start this season. He had 4 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 2 K in the outing.

Reds at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:30 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Cubs +133 (bet $100 to win $133)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds -1.5 (-105) | Cubs +1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Prediction

Cubs 6, Reds 5

Money line (ML)

If anyone has guesses as to how the tanking Chicago Cubs are on a seven-game win streak I’m all ears. Chicago moved its championship core and three best relief pitchers at the trade deadline but have been three games better over the past 20 than a Cincy team in the NL Wild Card hunt.

Over the past two weeks, Chicago’s lineup is in the top 10 of wRC+, wOBA and WAR while Cincy’s has ranked 24th or worse in each metric. Also, we are getting a substantial “line freeze” in the betting market.

According to Pregame.com, nearly 80% of the cash wagered is on the Reds but their price hasn’t budged since the opening number. It’s pretty sketchy that four of five bettors are taking Cincy but the line hasn’t moved. Hmmmmm.

Slight “LEAN” to the CUBS (+133) for a tiny wager because Chicago’s run line has more value in my opinion.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Definitely BET the CUBS +1.5 (-115) heavier than or instead of their money line because of the aforementioned analysis.

We have the same “line freeze” situation with the run line as the money line market. Also, Cincy’s bullpen has been its biggest question mark all season. Chicago’s lineup could certainly “sneak in the backdoor” and cover against the Reds relievers if this game doesn’t go the way we expect it.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the UNDER 9.5 (-115) because both sides of the market are hammering the Under for reasons I’m not very clear on. Since I cannot find any Under-friendly angles, I’ll stick with the Cubs’ sides wagers.

However, the sportsbooks have reacted by bringing the Reds-Cubs total down from the 10.5-run opener to the current price so the House is leery about all the pro-Under money.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Detroit Tigers (64-73) face off with the Cincinnati Reds (73-64) at Great American Ball Park Sunday in the finale of their three-game interleague series. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Tigers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

This is the rubber match for the Tigers and Reds as Detroit won Friday’s game 15-5 and Cincinnati evened the set with a 7-4 victory Saturday.

Season series: Tied 1-1.

RHP Casey Mize is Detroit’s projected starter. He is 7-7 with a 3.59 ERA (135 1/3 IP, 54 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 25 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 3-2, with 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 4 K Monday against the Minnesota Twins.
  • 2021 road stats: 4-3 with a 3.50  ERA (74 2/3 IP, 29 ER), 1.09 WHIP and 3.1 K/BB across 13 starts.

RHP Luis Castillo is on the hill for the Reds. He is 7-14 with a 4.30 ERA (157 IP, 75 ER), 1.38 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 through 28 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 3-1, with 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 8 K Monday against the St. Louis Cardinals.
  • 2021 home stats: 5-6 with a 3.57 ERA (80 2/3 IP, 32 ER), 1.38 WHIP and 2.8 K/BB over 14 starts.

Tigers at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:55 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Tigers +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Reds -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Tigers +1.5 (-112) | Reds -1.5 (-108)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Tigers 5, Red 4

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the TIGERS (+180) for a tiny wager because there’s some value in Detroit’s run line and there’s a solid chance the Tigers could steal this game outright.

Detroit is 7-5 as a road underdog when Mize gets the start with a plus-48.9% return on investment (ROI). Whereas Cincy is just 10-18 straight up in games Castillo starts.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Definitely BET the TIGERS +1.5 (-110) heavier than or instead of Detroit’s money line. The Tigers are 9-3 ATS as road underdogs with Mize starting and have a plus-29.4% ROI in those spots. The Reds are 4-6 ATS as home favorites with Castillo starting and have a minus-13.8% ROI.

Detroit is also 9-5 ATS in interleague games and 34-30 ATS as a road underdog while Cincinnati is 6-11 ATS in interleague games.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 8.5 (-102) since both the “pros” and “joes” are backing the Under in the early-morning action report, according to Pregame.com, even though there are several pro-Over trends.

I’d assume this is “sharp” action because how many recreational bettors are wagering on Tigers-Reds in September?

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (52-69) play the second game of a three-game set with the Cincinnati Reds (65-55) Tuesday at  Great American Ball Park with a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cubs vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cincinnati clubbed Chicago 14-5 in Monday’s series opener as Reds’ NL Rookie of the Year favorite 3B Jonathan India went 3-for-6 with a home run, a double and 5 RBIs.

Season series: Reds lead 10-4.

RHP Kyle Hendricks is on the mound for the Cubs. He is 13-5 with a 4.15 ERA (138 2/3 IP, 64 ER), 1.34 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 through 24 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 17-4, with 4 IP, 9 ER, 11 H, 1 BB and 3 K Thursday against the Milwaukee Brewers.
  • Hendricks has earned two no-decisions against the Reds this season with a 5.23 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 14 H, 2 BB and 9 K.
    •  vs. Reds on current roster (230 PA): 5.24 FIP with a .297 batting average (BA), .371 wOBA, .415 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 21.7 K% and 87.1 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Vladimir Gutiérrez gets the nod for the Reds. He is 8-3 with a 3.95 ERA (79 2/3 IP, 35 ER), 1.33 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 through 14 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 12-3, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 6 K Thursday at the Atlanta Braves.
  • Gutiérrez is 1-1 this season against Chicago with a 2.38 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 7 H, 5 BB and 8 K.
    • vs. Cubs on current roster (20 PA): 9.76 FIP with a .313 BA, .452 wOBA, .462 xSLG, 10.0 K% and 85.6 mph EV.

Cubs at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:25 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cubs +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Reds -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cubs +1.5 (-140) | Reds -1.5 (+111)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Prediction

Reds 9, Cubs 4

Money line (ML)

PASS with a “lean” on the Reds (-180) even though Cincinnati is getting “sharp” line movement and Chicago is in the midst of a 12-game losing skid.

At this price point, I’d be more interested in parlaying Cincy’s money line with another similarly priced favorite for a plus- or even-money payout.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the REDS -1.5 (+111) for a half unit only because Cincy is just 19-28 ATS as a home favorite, Chicago is 28-18 ATS as a road underdog and there’s “reverse line movement” (RLM) in the Cubs’ direction.

However, the Reds are 31-22 ATS against NL Central foes, the Cubs are 23-31 ATS in divisional games and Hendricks has been terrible in his last five starts against the Reds and in Cincy’s home ballpark.

Hendricks is 0-3 with a 9.26 ERA (23 1/3 IP, 24 ER) and 20/4 K/BB with 8 home runs allowed over his last five starts against the Reds. Also, Hendricks is 2-5 with a 6.16 ERA (61 1/3 IP, 42 ER) and 1.45 WHIP across 11 starts in Cincinnati’s home park.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-107) for a half unit because there are so many Over-friendly trends in this matchup, Cincinnati’s lineup is tied with the best WAR in August and Chicago’s pitching staff has the worst WAR this month.

That said, all of the previous information is baked into the line and nearly 70% of the action is on the Over but there’s RLM heading towards the Under, according to Pregame.com. This is why I only “LEAN” OVER 9.5 (-107) for a half unit.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (62-54) visit Citizens Bank Park Friday to start a three-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies (60-55). First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Reds vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cincy snapped a three-game losing streak by clubbing the Atlanta Braves 12-3 in the series finale of their set and is 6-4 in its last 10 games.

Philly has stormed to the front of the NL East thanks to an 8-2 record in their last 10 games and a 13-7 mark across the last 20. However, they did just lose two of three games against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Season series: Reds lead 2-1.

RHP Tyler Mahle is Cincinnati’s projected starter. Mahle is 9-3 with a 3.78 ERA (123 2/3 IP, 52 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 23 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 3-2, with 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 10 K Sunday against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
  • 2021 road splits: 6-1 with a 2.06 ERA (65 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.05 WHIP and 3.1 K/BB in 12 starts.

RHP Zack Wheeler makes his 24th start for the Phillies. Wheeler is 10-6 with a 2.42 ERA (156 IP, 42 ER), 0.99 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9.

  • Last outing: Win, 3-0, CG with 9 IP, 2 H, 1 BB and 11 K Sunday against the New York Mets.
  • 2021 home splits: 6-3 with a 2.02 ERA (98 IP, 22 ER), 0.83 WHIP and a 7.7 K/BB in 14 starts.

Reds at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:28 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Phillies -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-150) | Phillies -1.5 (+120)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Prediction

Reds 5, Phillies 2

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the REDS (+140) because I’m taking Cincy’s run line, Mahle has been terrific on the road this year, Cincy’s lineup is more productive against right-handed pitching and the Reds relievers have pitched much better than Philly’s since the All-Star Game.

For instance, the Reds rank sixth wRC+, seventh in hard-hit rate and first in wOBA vs. righties. While the Phillies are 21st in wRC+, 16th in wOBA and 23rd in hard-hit rate.

Also, Cincy’s bullpen has been mediocre to above average in the second half of the season (10th in xFIP and 13th in SIERA) while Philly’s bullpen has been awful (27th in both SIERA and K-BB% and 25th in xFIP).

Wheeler is coming off perhaps his best pitching performance of the year with a 108-pitch CG shutout so I’m banking on slight regression or at least a lesser workload.

Furthermore, according to pregame.com, there’s a “line freeze” in the betting market as nearly 70% of the cash and action is on the Phillies. However, the line hasn’t adjusted much from Tipico’s opener and most sportsbooks have stuck near their original price despite the one-sided action.

I’m okay putting a LIGHT WAGER on the REDS (+140) and fade the market because Wheeler is the favorite to win the NL Cy Young on most sportsbooks who’s coming off an amazing start so all the public action adds up.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Definitely BET the REDS +1.5 (-150) heavier than or instead of their money line because of Cincy’s bullpen, pitching and hitting edges described above. On top of that, Philly is 14-23 ATS as a home favorite and Cincy is 28-13 ATS as a road underdog.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET the UNDER 8.5 (-110) because we have a “pros vs. joes” situation in the betting market as, per pregame.com, nearly 90% of the cash wagered on the total is with the Under and more than 70% of the bets placed are on the Over.

Typically in sports betting it’s sharper to follow the money when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the masses.

Lastly, the Phillies are 8-14 O/U when Wheeler gets the start and the Reds are 4-6-2 O/U in Mahle’s 12 road starts.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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