Tag: CFP prediction

Post-spring College Football Playoff predictions

We project five SEC teams including the Georgia Bulldogs to make the College Football Playoff in our 12-team playoff predictions

The College Football Playoff will have a new 12-team format for the 2024 college football season. The playoff will be more inclusive. Each of the winners of the Power Four conferences will receive a bye week. Additionally, the highest-ranked non-Power Four conference champion will receive a bid to the playoff. The rest of the playoff will be filled with the other seven-most highly ranked teams.

The Georgia Bulldogs are among the favorites to make the playoff. Georgia returns an elite core surrounding starting quarterback Carson Beck. Georgia is frequently penciled in as the No. 1 team in the country along with Ohio State. Other national championship contenders include Texas, Oregon and Alabama. We’d be surprised if any team outside this group won a national title, but not many folks were predicting Michigan to win the playoff a year ago. You never know what will happen in college football.

What 12 teams do we project to make the playoff? How will the playoff unfold? We use betting odds to aid our conference champion picks.

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The Memphis Tigers return star quarterback Seth Henigan, so we are picking Memphis to be the non-Power Four at-large bid for the playoff over Boise State and Liberty, who have the same national title odds. Henigan is one of the nation’s leading returning passers.

The Tigers are coming off a 10-3 season and are ready to make some noise in 2024. Memphis isn’t built to win at Texas in the opening round of the playoff.

National championship odds: +50,000

Michigan makes the playoff over Notre Dame, who has similar national title odds at +2,200. The Wolverines lost over 10 players to the 2024 NFL draft including quarterback J.J. McCarthy. Michigan also lost head coach Jim Harbaugh to the NFL.

The Wolverines have games against Ohio State, Texas and Oregon this fall. Michigan probably has to win one of those three to make the playoff. We think the Wolverines’ defense is good enough for Michigan to handle most opponents it faces.

National championship odds: +2,500

The 12-team playoff is built to reward a team like Penn State that is consistently solid. However, quarterback Drew Allar and company aren’t going to win a road game at Alabama, so we have the Nittany Lions losing in the first round.

National championship odds: +2,000

It is a bit surprising to see LSU as such a high seed. The Tigers will be playing better on the defensive side of the ball if they end up making the playoff. LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier could be the Tigers next Heisman candidate.

National championship odds: +1,700

Ole Miss or Missouri could both sneak into the playoff out of the SEC. The Rebels have better odds than the Tigers and only face three SEC powers in 2024 (Georgia, LSU and Oklahoma). Ole Miss has two of these games at home and we think the Rebels will finish the year 10-2 and will host LSU in a playoff game.

National championship odds: +1,500

Alabama is the team that none of the top two seed wants to be matched up against. The Crimson Tide have more talent than many of the teams seeded ahead of them. Quarterback Jalen Milroe is capable of leading this Alabama team to a title.

National championship odds: +1,400

Oregon’s opening round match-up at home against Michigan would be a fun one to watch. The Ducks have a challenging schedule in their first season in the Big Ten, but we think quarterback Dillon Gabriel and Oregon are up to the task.

National championship odds: +850

Whoever ends up being the No. 5 seed will waltz over the No. 12 seed in a home game. That’s just the reality of how the playoff is structured now. Quarterback Quinn Ewers and Texas will be a tough out for anyone in the playoff. The Texas-Georgia game on Oct. 19 could go a long ways in deciding who wins the SEC.

National championship odds: +800

Utah and Kansas State (+7,000) have the similar national title odds. We like the Utes to win the Big 12 due to the return of quarterback Cam Rising. Kansas State’s starting quarterback Will Howard transferred to Ohio State, so the Wildcats don’t have quite as much continuity as Utah.

National championship odds: +6,000

Florida State finally makes the playoff after being snubbed a year ago. The Seminoles win the ACC over Clemson, but aren’t as talented as they were a year ago. The 2024 edition of Florida State is probably not a national championship contender, but will be well-positioned with a bye week as the ACC’s top team.

National championship odds: +2,800

Ohio State is the only other team outside of Georgia that we’ve seen as a preseason No. 1. The Buckeyes return a stacked defense and are our pick to win the Big Ten. We think Ohio State will have best defense in the country. The only question is can the Buckeyes get consistent play out of Kansas State transfer quarterback Will Howard?

National championship odds: +440

Georgia has arguably the top returning quarterback in the country in Carson Beck. Beck returns a deep wide receiver core. The Dawgs have plenty of prowess in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Georgia is looking to win its third national championship in four years and has playmakers at every position on offense and defense.

National championship odds: +300

  1. Georgia vs. Winner of (No. 8) Ole Miss vs. (No. 9) LSU
  2. Ohio State vs. Winner of (No. 7) Alabama vs. (No. 10) Penn State
  3. Florida State vs. Winner of (No. 6) Oregon vs. (No. 11) Michigan
  4. Utah vs. Winner of (No. 5) Texas vs. (No. 12) Memphis

First round

No. 8 Ole Miss 34, No. 9 LSU 28

No. 7 Alabama 31, No. 10 Penn State 10

No. 6 Oregon 24, No. 11 Michigan 17

No. 5 Texas 48, No. 12 Memphis 20

Note: The quarterfinals and on will be played at neutral sites

No. 1 Georgia 30, No. 8 Ole Miss 20

No. 2 Ohio State 28, No. 7 Alabama 24

No. 6 Oregon 38, No. 3 Florida State 17

No. 5 Texas 34, No. 4 Utah 23

Semifinals

No. 1 Georgia 31, No. 5 Texas 28

No. 2 Ohio State 37, No. 6 Oregon 24

National championship

No. 1 Georgia 30, No. 2 Ohio State 24

College Football Playoff Rankings: How The Committee Should Rank The Top 25, Week 2

College Football Playoff rankings – How should the committee rank the next top 25?

The second College Football Playoff rankings of 2022 will come out Tuesday night, November 8th. How should the committee put together the top 25?

The College Football Playoff committee didn’t do a horrible job with the first round of rankings.

There might have been a misfire when it came to the Pac-12 teams – USC was too high, UCLA too low – and there are a few other minor tweaks, but putting Tennessee No. 1 was the right move at the time, and it all was relatively fine from there.

Remember, the College Football Playoff rankings are a snapshot of the moment until the final batch. The committee goes through each spot pick by pick debating the merits of all the teams available, and in the end the top 25 was at least thought out, even if it doesn’t always seem right.

And then it’s all wiped away and everything starts from scratch the next week.

Since the committee obviously doesn’t have the Pac-12 Network and hasn’t actually watched USC’s defense or most of the late night games – I’m joking, of course … sort of – I’ll give everyone a little bit of help.

Go here for what we expect the next round of rankings to be. Here’s how the College Football Playoff committee should put together the top 25.

College Football Playoff Rankings: How The Top 25 Should Be Done, November 8

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College Football Playoff: Helping The Committee With The Top 25
Top 4 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25
Bowl Projections | CFN Rankings 1-131 | Rankings by Conference
AP Poll | Coaches Poll | Predicting CFP Top 25
Bowl Bubble: Bowl eligible teams, who needs a win?
Ranking the 12 teams realistically in the CFP hunt

25. UCF Knights (7-2)

College Football Playoff Ranking, Week 1: 25

The Case For This Spot: The 41-19 win over SMU looks better and better, the win over Cincinnati was great, and getting by Memphis on the road offsets an ugly 34-13 loss to East Carolina a little bit. Don’t worry about this ranking. Beat Tulane this week, go on to win the AAC championship, get a spot in a New Year’s Six bowl.

Win That Matters: UCF 25, Cincinnati 21

Loss (or bad performance) That Matters: East Carolina 34, UCF 13

Up Next: at Tulane

24. Liberty Flames (8-1)

College Football Playoff Ranking, Week 1: Not Ranked

The Case For This Spot: This will be interesting. How much credit does Liberty get for beating Arkansas? Heck, Texas A&M did that, too. The 37-36 loss to Wake Forest is good, and the 41-14 win over BYU is great, but there’s a TON of fluff on the slate to get up to eight wins.

Win That Matters: Liberty 21, Arkansas 19

Loss (or bad performance) That Matters: Liberty 21, Gardner-Webb 20

Up Next: at UConn

23. Kansas State Wildcats (6-3)

College Football Playoff Ranking, Week 1: 13

The Case For This Spot: The committee putting Kansas State six spots ahead of Tulane – the Green Wave won 17-10 in Manhattan – was sort of wrong, but that will be changed this week. Losing at TCU isn’t bad, and dropping a date to Texas is okay. Blowouts over Missouri and Oklahoma State are enough to keep the Wildcats from falling too far, but they shouldn’t be in the top 20.

Win That Matters: Kansas State 48, Oklahoma State 0

Loss (or bad performance) That Matters: Tulane 17, Kansas State 10

Up Next: at Baylor

22. Texas Longhorns (6-3)

College Football Playoff Ranking, Week 1: 24

The Case For This Spot: Basically, the College Football Playoff committee watched the Alabama game, saw Texas beat Oklahoma 49-0, and it seems like it didn’t notice much else. The Oklahoma State loss a few weeks ago now looks really, really rough, and losing to Texas Tech isn’t okay. However, beating Kansas State should be enough to bump up closer to the top 20. Beat TCU this week, and Texas will prove to be as good as the CFP thinks it is.

Win That Matters: Texas 34, Kansas State 27

Loss (or bad performance) That Matters: Texas Tech 37, Texas 34

Up Next: TCU

21. Washington Huskies (7-2)

College Football Playoff Ranking, Week 1: Not Ranked

The Case For This Spot: Since the committee proved last week that it doesn’t watch the Pac-12, it might miss that the Huskies have been very, very shaky. However, the win over Oregon State – then ranked 23rd in the CFP – was a good one, losing at UCLA was fine, and beating Michigan State is okay. The loss to Arizona State hurts, but beat Oregon this week, and the ranking shoots up.

Win That Matters: Washington 39, Michigan State 28

Loss (or bad performance) That Matters: Arizona State 45, Washington 38

Up Next: at Oregon

College Football Playoff: Helping The Committee With The Top 25
Top 4 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25
Bowl Projections | CFN Rankings 1-131 | Rankings by Conference
AP Poll | Coaches Poll | Predicting CFP Top 25
Bowl Bubble: Bowl eligible teams, who needs a win?
Ranking the 12 teams realistically in the CFP hunt

NEXT: College Football Playoff Rankings: How The Top 25 Should Be Done, Top 20

Pages: Page 1, Page 2, Page 3, Page 4, Page 5

College Football Playoff Rankings: How The Committee Should Rank The Top 25

The first batch of College Football Playoff rankings are coming out Tuesday night. How should the committee rank the top 25?

The first College Football Playoff rankings of 2022 will come out Tuesday night, November 1st. How should the committee rank the top 25?

College Football Playoff Rankings: How The Top 25 Should Be Done, November 2

The College Football Playoff committee will release its first round of rankings on Tuesday night.

It’ll spend the day debating the merits of each of the 25 spots, there will be a few arguments, and the spread of delightful meats, cheeses, and other snacks will be adequate.

I know, because I’ve been through the process in Grapevine, Texas. I know how this works, and I know how this should all go.

And I know that this group could use a little bit of help.

These rankings are meticulous. The committee will debate the merits of the teams that should be in the No. 25 slot, come to an agreement, and then go to 24, then 23, and so on. There’s a proprietary stat system to help the cause, strength of schedule matters, and after all the data and all the facts, this group will still mostly go by the old eye test.

Remember …

1. This is just an exercise. It’s practice, and not really. The College Football Playoff committee is doing this to get up to speed, generate national interest, and provide ESPN some sweet programming candy for those who need a break from the World Series. However, it’s like practicing for a Par 3 hole for some tournament without knowing the distance or configuration needed because …

2. If precedent holds, go unbeaten or 12-1, win your Power 5 championship, and you’re in. The only time that didn’t get you into the CFP was in 2018 when 12-1 Ohio State was left out for 12-0 Notre Dame. No way, no how, no chance an unbeaten Power Five team is left out, so Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, TCU, and Clemson win out and you’re in.

3. There aren’t any rules. The committee can pick anyone it wants to. And …

4. RELAX after these first rankings, and the second version, and the third. All that matters is that final top 25 that comes out after the conference championships.

For now, the goal here is to break down how the committee needs to put together this first batch of rankings. I’ll be fair and go by what they like, which means big wins matter more than losses, and there won’t be enough credit given to a good loss over a strong team.

So here’s how the College Football Playoff committee should put together the top 25 rankings.

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College Football Playoff: Helping The Committee With The Top 25
Top 4 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25
Bowl Projections | CFN Rankings 1-131 | Rankings by Conference
AP Poll | Coaches Poll | Predicting CFP Top 25
Bowl Bubble: Bowl eligible teams, who needs a win? 

25. UCF Knights (6-2)

The Case For This Spot: The Knights took control of the race to get the New Year’s Six bowl slot as the top Group of Five champion with a great win over Cincinnati. Rolling by Georgia Tech helps, and the loss to Louisville isn’t that bad. The East Carolina loss will bring down the ranking.

Win That Matters: UCF 25, Cincinnati 21

Loss (or bad performance) That Matters: East Carolina 34, UCF 13

Up Next: at Memphis

24. Liberty Flames (7-1)

The Case For This Spot: The only loss was in a 37-36 fight at Wake Forest. There isn’t a win over a Power Five program, and there aren’t many great victories over anyone who’ll do much on the bowl scene, but 7-1 at this point is 7-1.

Win That Matters: Liberty 41, BYU 14

Loss (or bad performance) That Matters: Liberty 21, Gardner-Webb 20

Up Next: at Arkansas

23. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-2)

The Case For This Spot: The great battle in the 51-45 win over Clemson will do the job for the committee’s eye test, but the turnover-fest loss to Louisville last week was a killer. Beating Florida State matters, and giving Liberty its only loss is a big deal.

Win That Matters: Wake Forest 31, Florida State 21

Loss (or bad performance) That Matters: Louisville 48, Wake Forest 21

Up Next: at NC State

22. NC State Wolfpack (6-2)

The Case For This Spot: The losses to Clemson and Syracuse were acceptable in the ACC big picture, and the wins over Florida State and Texas Tech will be just enough to put the Pack safely in the top 25. However, there are too many close call wins over mediocre teams.

Win That Matters: NC State 19, Florida State 17

Loss (or bad performance) That Matters: Syracuse 24, NC State 9

Up Next: Wake Forest

21. Syracuse Orange (6-2)

The Case For This Spot: The Orange might struggle to push for the top 20 with a slew of injuries – that matters to the committee – but a blowout win over Louisville and victories over NC State and Purdue were strong. The close fight against Clemson will be a boost.

Win That Matters: Syracuse 24, NC State 9

Loss (or bad performance) That Matters: Notre Dame 41, Syracuse 24

Up Next: at Pitt

College Football Playoff: Helping The Committee With The Top 25
Top 4 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25
Bowl Projections | CFN Rankings 1-131 | Rankings by Conference
AP Poll | Coaches Poll | Predicting CFP Top 25
Bowl Bubble: Bowl eligible teams, who needs a win? 

NEXT: College Football Playoff Rankings: How The Top 25 Should Be Done, Top 20

Pages: Page 1, Page 2, Page 3, Page 4, Page 5

Former Georgia Bulldog star David Pollack makes CFP prediction

Georgia Bulldogs legend and ESPN College GameDay analyst David Pollack correctly predicted the CFP national title game and SEC championship last August. Can he do it again?

Georgia Bulldogs legend and ESPN “College GameDay” analyst David Pollack correctly predicted the 2022 College Football Playoff national championship and the result of the SEC championship. Impressively, Pollack made those predictions ahead of the season.

Now, Pollack projects Alabama, Ohio State, Utah and Clemson to make the 2023 CFP. He thinks Alabama will knock off Ohio State to win the national title.

Pollack made his prediction on ESPN’s “College GameDay”:

Can David Pollack correctly pick the national championship game in back-to-back years? Alabama-Ohio State is a very popular preseason national title matchup. The Buckeyes and Crimson Tide return their respective starting quarterbacks.

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College Football Playoff Rankings: Helping The Committee With The Top 25

The first batch of College Football Playoff rankings are coming out Tuesday night. How should the committee rank the top 25?

The first College Football Playoff rankings of 2021 will come out Tuesday night, November 2nd. How should the committee rank the top 25?

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College Football Playoff: Helping The Committee With The Top 25
Top 4 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20
Predicting the first CFP Top 25
College Football Playoff Chase: Who’s alive?

The College Football Playoff rankings season is finally here.

The committee will get together, there will be snacks, they’ll do what they do – all without the slightest bit of transparency – and then the top 25 will be unveiled.

Finally, these are the rankings that matter … sort of. This is all just a fun exercise until the final College Football Playoff rankings come out right after the conference championships.

I’ve been in the room in Grapevine, Texas, I’ve been through the process, and I’ve worked with this operation and know how this group makes the sausage. For all the criticism, and hollering, and anger from the fan bases, start with this …

The process is meticulous, and everyone is 100% totally sincere in trying to create the best ranking possible.

This isn’t like the other ranking systems that are thrown together on a late Saturday night. The committee debates and discusses each and every one of the spots, starting at 25 all the way down to No. 1. There will be mistakes, and there will be inconsistencies, but at the very least there’s a rationale behind every slot.

No, there is no agenda like some think there is. They legitimately want the four best teams in the College Football Playoff, no matter what.

Now, is this silly that college football bases its playoff system on the whims of a panel of judges? Of course. But for now, this is what we’ve got.

I’m going to tell the College Football Playoff committee what the top 25 should be – by the way, it’s beyond ridiculous that there’s no media member or someone who follows college football for a living on the panel.

Before getting going and before these come out for real, remember …

1. These rankings are just a snapshot. They’re thrown out and done all over again next week.

2. There aren’t any rules. The committee can pick anyone it wants to. And …

3. And I can’t stress this enough, DON’T GET INTO A TWIST over the rankings. Again, wait until the entire season is done. At that point the committee cares about two things – did you win your Power Five conference championship, and did you do it with no more than one loss? That’s the baseline for everything else.

These isn’t the prediction and projection of the first round of College Football Playoff rankings – that’s this. This is me telling the committee what to do – no, this group hasn’t seen all the teams and all the games because they have real lives and jobs that actually matter.

I do, however, try to keep this within the framework of how the commitee rolls. It LOVES big wins, and while it doesn’t punish losses to great teams, it doesn’t give enough credit to Team A for playing Alabama on the same day that Team B played Central Cupcake Tech.

One last thing – the committee uses its own proprietary stat system. Other rankings and other metrics don’t exist in their world.

So if I may be so forward, College Football Playoff committee, this is what your first top 25 should be.

College Football Playoff Rankings: How The Top 25 Should Be Done, November 2

25. Pitt Panthers (6-2)

The Case For This Spot: There actually isn’t anything that great to point to, and the 44-41 loss to Western Michigan is an anchor, but there’s something to be said for being the first team since 2014 Georgia Tech to beat Clemson by double-digits in the regular season.

The Panthers also won at Tennessee, and the wins at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech are good enough to matter.

Win That Matters: Pitt 27, Clemson 17

Loss (or bad performance) That Matters: Western Michigan 44, Pitt 41

Up Next: at Duke

24. Houston Cougars (7-1)

The Case For This Spot: Here’s the deal I’ll make with you, College Football Playoff committee. I’ll indulge your love of rewarding teams with one big win – Houston just handed SMU its first loss of the season – if you’ll at least listen to my argument about 17, 19, and 20.

The Cougars lost to Texas Tech by 17 and haven’t beaten anyone other than an SMU team that beat absolutely no one other than a bad TCU.

Win That Matters: Houston 44, SMU 37

Loss (or bad performance) That Matters: Texas Tech 38, Houston 21

Up Next: at USF

23. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-2)

The Case For This Spot: There’s enough there with wins over Iowa State and Maryland on the road and the home victory over Penn State to put the Hawkeyes somewhere in the top 25.

However, the offense is bad when the defense isn’t taking the ball away, and losing to Purdue and Wisconsin by a combined score of 51-14 over the last two weeks is the sort of trend-down thing the committee doesn’t dig.

Win That Matters: Iowa 23, Penn State 20

Loss (or bad performance) That Matters: Purdue 24, Iowa 7

Up Next: at Northwestern

22. Wisconsin Badgers (5-3)

The Case For This Spot: The Badger offense has been BRUTAL at times, but the committee is going to give credit to the nation’s No. 1 defense – at least statistically – against, technically, one of the nation’s toughest schedules.

The losses to Notre Dame, Michigan, and Penn State will be slightly forgivable, and the wins over Army, Purdue, and Iowa will trend the team up just enough that it should slip into the top 25.

Win That Matters: Wisconsin 27, Iowa 7

Loss (or bad performance) That Matters: Penn State 16, Wisconsin 10

Up Next: at Rutgers

21. Fresno State Bulldogs (7-2)

The Case For This Spot: This is my ultra-pretentious How Much Does The College Football Playoff Committee Actually Know test, Part 1

Fresno State lost at Hawaii – which in and of itself is always a quirky road game, finishing about 3 am ET – but it was way banged up before getting a two-week break. The other loss? At Oregon 31-24.

That loss, though, to the Rainbow Warriors with a backup quarterback is enough to put Fresno State a bit lower. However, it just handed San Diego State its first loss of the season, and it beat a fabulous Nevada team the week before that. Throw in the win over UCLA on the road, and this is a sneaky-good top 20ish team.

Win That Matters: Fresno State 30, San Diego State 20

Loss (or bad performance) That Matters: Hawaii 27, Fresno State 24

Up Next: Boise State

NEXT: College Football Playoff Rankings: How The Top 25 Should Be Done – Top 20

Pages: Page 1, Page 2, Page 3, Page 4, Page 5

Ohio State vs Alabama: CFP National Championship Final Thoughts, What Will Happen

The final thoughts, a few predictions, and some investment advice for Ohio State vs Alabama College Football Playoff National Championship.

The final thoughts, a few predictions, and some investment advice for the Ohio State vs Alabama College Football Playoff National Championship to make your life a heck of a lot better than it currently is. 

[jwplayer CaVao6EW]

– Contact/Follow @PeteFiutak

This is all just for spits, giggles, and entertainment purposes only. However, just in case you dabble …

In any normal time I’m in Miami right now doing this either 15 minutes before hitting the bar or way, way after in the wee hours of the AM. Either way, I’d be warm instead of being stuck in this snow-infested place I’m forced to live in because of various people in my house who don’t leave, and …

By the way, tonight I’m doing my annual Stream of Consciousness Game Notes as it all goes on. Check back, be entertained, and then move on.

– 2017 Georgia vs. Alabama Game Comments
– 2018 Clemson vs. Alabama Game Comments
– 2019 LSU vs Clemson Game Comments

I’ve been obnoxious about this, and I’m going to keep bringing it up until the College Football Gods hear my cries. We need a good game.

No, we need an epic national championship, because the bowl season was SO awful and SO boring and SO worthless – at least to the general public – compared to how amazing the NFL Wild Card weekend was. This is our chance to take the big sports narrative back. Ohio State and Alabama, save our 2020-2021 college football bowl season.

By my rough count, 15 of the last 16 radio/video/TV appearances I’ve done ended up devolving into an argument about talent level, as if Alabama is about to take on Akron.

This is OHIO FREAKING STATE. You know, tons of superstars, beats Michigan every year, joyless fan base … OHIO STATE. This isn’t some rising star program or Little Engine That Could story. This is one of the baddest of the bad boys on the block, and it has every bit as much talent across the board as Bama.

There aren’t any excuses. If the Tide lose, I don’t want to hear Alabama fans whining about Ohio State only playing seven games before this. This is really Game 2 for the Buckeyes – the team was never right all season, and it still isn’t. It’s still getting used to playing with all of its parts – I’ll rephrase that … nah. Alabama go win this.

If Ohio State loses, I don’t want to hear about Justin Fields’ ribs, or that Player X couldn’t go, or because there was some sort of delay, or there should’ve been one, or whatever. Ohio State, go win this.

What are we missing? LSU over Clemson last year was obvious. Notre Dame getting whacked around by Bama in this season’s CFP semifinal was obvious. Clemson obliterating Alabama in Santa Clara … not obvious. Ohio State rolling past Clemson in this season’s CFP semifinal … not obvious, but we should’ve seen that coming.

What’s one thing we’re missing? Ohio State is going to be every bit as laser-focused – if not more so – than lives-on-process-and-focus Alabama.

Give Ryan Day this as a head coach. Since he started, he has made certain that his team doesn’t let up for a moment – he wasn’t going to let the Buckeyes suffer the types of letdowns that were so costly in the two years before he took over.

That’s been rougher to do this year, but be shocked if Ohio State doesn’t look and play with the same Sugar Bowl attitude it had against Clemson.

What’s the one thing we might not see coming? Alabama has yet to have any semblance of a clunker. What happens if and when Mac Jones gets rattled around a bit? What happens if Ohio State’s Shaun Wade really is able to show off his NFL corner skills on DeVonta Smith and slow him down? Bama handled a little adversity against Florida, but not really.

I feel like we’re all prepared for anything but Ohio State rolling with a dominant performance. No matter what, I feel like my postgame column will start, “How Did We All Possibly Miss (blank)?”

A 9-6 defensive slugfest. I’m not prepare for that. I demand 52-46. I want a repeat of the SEC Championship.

The line opened at Bama -7, and it got hammered almost instantly to get it up to -8.5. I’ll be shocked if it doesn’t start rolling back down to about 7.5 before game time.

I like the over on the 75. You like the over on the 75. We all love the over on the 75 because it’s what we want. It’s what we expect out of these two offenses. That’s still a massive number to hit no matter what. This could be a whole lot of fun and still finish 38-34.

Back to what we’re all missing … Alabama vs both Ole Miss and Florida. It’s not like the Tide faced a ton of high-powered offenses. Sure, LSU had its moments, and Georgia had a certain charm before JT Daniels took over, and Texas A&M had its style and talent, but Ole Miss and Florida were the two teams with some firepower, and they each put up good numbers against the Tide.

The Ohio State defense doesn’t get enough credit. Yes, the pass defense is statistically bad. The run defense has been terrific, and this group can apply a whole lot of pressure, even if it doesn’t bring the sacks.

Trivia time, and almost no one gets this outside of the most die-hard of Bama types. Name the star winning quarterbacks in each of the College Football Playoff national championships.

Going backwards … Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, I’ll allow for Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa, Deshaun Watson, and then … there’s your road block.

Jacob Coker. He took Alabama to the national title to end the 2015 season, and Cardale Jones did it the year before for Ohio State. The point?

Justin Fields is the best player on the field. Argue this all you want, but he’s almost certainly the first guy from this game to be taken in the NFL Draft. This has to be his moment. He has to be The Guy. He has to be Joe, and Trevor, and Tua, and Deshaun.

Alabama can win this with Mac Jones being Jacob Coker, even though Jones really is good enough to be The Guy.

By the way, that’s not fair. Coker threw for 335 yards and two touchdowns with no picks in the national title win over Clemson in Glendale – he made big play after big play. He had some Derrick Henry guy to hand off to, but he was still fantastic. Cardale Jones only threw for 242 against Oregon, and Tua and Jalen combined for 187 against Georgia.

Alabama should be so lucky for Jones to have the day Coker had. However, Jones might have to hit 400 to win this.

Gut feeling … the big underdog role works with this Ohio State team. As if being in the national championship isn’t enough, after that emotional win over Clemson, this is just the sort of thing that can be that oomph to keep that all going.

The SEC Championship spooked me. That Ole Miss game spooked me. I think Bama is way overdue for a letdown that’s not Santa Clara, but enough to be on the wrong side of the fight.

I won’t argue in any way, shape or form if you think Alabama is going to win. There’s no real argument in the toughest call for a national championship in the College Football Playoff era. Even the ones I missed – Clemson over Bama for its two titles – didn’t have a whole lot of drama in the decision, even though the picks were wrong.

I can be swung either way, and I won’t be shocked by any outcome at this point. So my oh-too-tortured call …

Ohio State wins outright in a showcase of offensive fireworks that will make this the new standard of fun national championships.

I hope … at least on the fun national championship side. I just want a really, really, really good game. We all deserve it.

– CFN Ohio State vs Alabama Preview, Prediction

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Alabama vs Ohio State: CFP National Championship Early Prediction, First Thoughts

Alabama vs Ohio State: CFP National Championship early prediction and first thoughts

Alabama vs Ohio State: CFP National Championship early prediction and first thoughts.

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Alabama vs Ohio State CFP National Championship Broadcast

Date: Monday, January 11
Time: 8:00 ET
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Network: ESPN

– All of the CFN Fearless Predictions

Alabama (12-0) vs Ohio State (7-0)

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CFP National Championship First Thoughts

– It’s really sort of weird that it’s Alabama vs Ohio State for the College Football Playoff National championship, and yet it seems sort of … fresh?

– These are hardly two Little Engine That Could programs, but Ohio State hasn’t been in the national championship since the end of the 2014 season, and Alabama didn’t make the CFP last year and got destroyed by Clemson the year before in Santa Clara. Nothing against Clemson, but the idea of Tide vs. Tigers yet again just didn’t seem to have a whole lot of national sizzle. This will.

– Just a guess … Nick Saban won’t be talking about how Ohio State only played seven games and might be the 11th best team in college football.

– The seven-game season, though, might be a thing. It shouldn’t be – personally, I think it was far more negative for the Buckeye squad that didn’t jell until it arrived in New Orleans – but that looked like one fresh team against Clemson. It looked and played way, way faster.

– Totally anecdotal and in a for-what-it’s-worth sort of way, the Alabama people I know – not with the team, but close to it – are a bit spooked. Clemson was the devil they knew and expected. They knew Bama was better than this Tiger team, and they still think Bama is better than Ohio State. However, the Buckeye team that showed up against Clemson is a whole different animal.

– It’s going to be really, really hard for Ohio State to keep that same intensity and energy through January 11th. While everyone says the national championship is and was the goal, beating Clemson was the thing after the way last season ended.

– This is written before Indiana plays Ole Miss in the Outback. It shouldn’t be this way, but if Indiana wins big – the Rebels pushed Bama a bit earlier in the year – watch for the Ohio State love to start gushing. Wisconsin and Northwestern took care of their respective bowl games – maybe the Big Ten starts to get more respect.

– In terms of motivation, watch what happens on Heisman night this Tuesday. It’ll be DeVonta Smith or Mac Jones winning it, and Justin Fields might find that extra little bit of juice that seemed to take him to another level against Clemson.

– How bad is he hurt? That didn’t look like any old shot Fields took to the midsection/ribs, but he was able to play through it and be more than fine.

– Lost in the amazing performance by Ohio State was Trevor Lawrence and the 400 yards he bombed away for. They mostly came in comeback/desperation mode, but he also spread the ball around a ton. Mac Jones will need to use all of his options – and will have to use Najee Harris even more as a receiver – after the Buckeyes spend the next ten days figuring out how to stop DeVonta Smith.

– Ohio State only came up with two sacks against Clemson, but it provided a whole lot of pressure on Lawrence and battered him around a bit. The Alabama line won’t let the Buckeyes get to Jones all that often, but everything will have to go a half-click faster than it has all year.

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– Jones didn’t force anything against Notre Dame. His job was to not take chances or give the Irish any easy opportunities in a game the Tide had in hand right out of the gate. He’s going to have to press a bit more against the Buckeyes.

– The Florida game is important. The Gators were able to keep pressing Bama with the deep passes to the NFL-caliber receivers, and Ohio State should be able to do the same. The Tide got into a track meet, and Florida really did have a chance to win if the defense wasn’t so completely miserable.

– Florida showed potential flaws in Alabama … defensively. So did Ole Miss. However, there hasn’t been so much as a speed bump for this Bama offense all year. Ohio State is going to have to gear up the O and keep pressing.

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– Note: I almost just typed that Ohio State will have to outscore Alabama. I apologize for the flirtation with disaster. As a warning, that I was even thinking the phrase shows how things might not be working right.

– Here’s the freaky part about this matchup. Justin Fields can hit 22-of-28 passes for 385 yards and six touchdowns against Bama – just like he did against Clemson – and it still might not be enough.

– Honestly, I’m torn. I’ll need this entire layoff to try figuring out if the Clemson win was the be-all-end-all for Ohio State, or if that’s a sign that this is the hot team at the right time.

– Alabama always does this. It always looks and plays in a business-like fashion in the CFP semifinals, going 5-0 in them since losing to Ohio State in the 2015 version. But …

– No one saw the 44-16 clunker in the 2018 season CFP National Championship coming. However, Alabama needed a minor miracle to get out of the SEC Championship alive against Georgia, and it turned the machine off in the 45-34 Orange Bowl win over Kyler Murray and Oklahoma. There were signs that not everything was running right.

Alabama vs Ohio State CFP National Title Early Prediction

– The 2017 Bama team was the 4 seed and came into the national championship roaring after a dominant win over Clemson. The 2016 team was a bit off in the 24-7 win over Washington in the Peach, and then lost to Clemson. The 2015 team was humming in a blowout over Michigan State and then got past Clemson. What does any of this mean?

– Alabama has struggled in SEC Championships before and went on to win the national title. In the CFP era, when there’s been something off in the semis, it has lost the national championship. When it rips through the semis, it wins the title.

– There was hardly anything more than a yawn in the go-through-the-motions win over Notre Dame.

– By the way, the Ohio State 42-35 win over Alabama in the 2015 College Football Playoff has NOTHING to do with anything that’s about to happen.

– Don’t get hung up on Ohio State holding Clemson to 44 rushing yards. The Tigers and Travis Etienne struggled a bit all year to get the ground game rolling. When and if Alabama wants to pound away with Najee Harris, it will.

– Alabama hasn’t faced anyone who’s running like Trey Sermon. Texas A&M can run, and Georgia could pound a bit, but Sermon has been otherworldly over the last two games for the Buckeyes.

– Alabama has an under-appreciated pass rush, but Clemson came into the Sugar Bowl averaging four sacks per game – the most in the Dabo Swinney era – and it didn’t matter all that much against an Ohio State offensive line that was close to flawless.

– I know, the College Football Playoff needs to expand. I know, I want there to be a way for everyone to have a shot to play into the tournament, too. However, at the end of the day, no sport takes the fluke factor out of its championship better than college football.

– You can’t Cinderella your way into this game. You can’t get hot from three and get into the Final Four, you can’t be one of 14 teams in an any-given-Sunday NFL that finds the right magic, and you can’t get here because of a hot pitcher or goalie who stands on his head. There’s no such thing as a cheap or questionable College Football Playoff national champion.

NEXT: CFP National Championship Early Line, Prediction

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College Football Playoff Top 25 Rankings: Who Made The Top 4?

The final 2020 College Football Playoff rankings. Who’s No. 4? Who’s in the CFP?

The final 2020 College Football Playoff rankings. Who’s No. 4? Who’s in the CFP?

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Rest of the top 25 to come as it’s released.

6. Oklahoma Sooners 9-2 (10)

5. Texas A&M Aggies 8-1 (5)

4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 10-1 (2

3. Ohio State Buckeyes 6-0 (4)

2. Clemson Tigers 10-1 (3)

1. Alabama Crimson Tide 11-0 (1)

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College Football Playoff Rankings Projection, Final Top 25 Prediction

What will the College Football Playoff rankings be on Sunday? Here’s the final projection and top 25 prediction.

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What will the College Football Playoff rankings be on Sunday? Here’s the best guess.

Okay, so we’re here. It’s top for the College Football Playoff final top 25 rankings to come out, and it’s time to finally know who gets to play in the big four-team tournament. The best projection and top 25 prediction is …

25. NC State Wolfpack 8-3 (22)

The eight wins stand out. It was the only team to beat Liberty, it hung tough with Miami, and it ended up being one of the five or six beat teams in the ACC.

24. Tulsa Golden Hurricane 6-2 (23)

The 27-24 loss to Cincinnati should be enough to earn more respect than this, but the loss to Oklahoma State to start the season will be what keeps the Golden Hurricane down this far. It was still a magnificent year.

23. Oklahoma State Cowboys 7-3 (21)

The Cowboys died down the stretch … sort of. They lost three of their last six games and beat up the Big 12’s bad teams, but they won’t bounce out of the top 25 after being firmly in it the week before.

22. Texas Longhorns 6-3 (20)

Texas deserves a better ranking than this. The loss at home to TCU hurts, but the other losses were to Oklahoma and Iowa State, and all three defeats were this close to going the other way.

21. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns 9-1 (19)

Louisiana gets the shaft in all of this. It beat Iowa State, the one loss is to unbeaten Coastal Carolina, and there wasn’t a chance to prove that it might actually be the Sun Belt’s best team with the rematch with the Chanticleers called off.

20. USC Trojans 5-1 (13)

There weren’t any great wins, and the loss to Oregon was devastating. Had USC won in a blowout in the Pac-12 Championship, it would’ve had an interesting case for the fourth spot considering ow everything shook out.

19. Oregon Ducks 4-2 (NR)

This will tidy everything up. The losses to Oregon and Oregon State won’t exactly be brushed aside, but what amounted to a road win at USC for the Pac-12 champion will move the Ducks up hither than the Trojans to make it all easy to put everything in order.

18. Miami Hurricanes 8-2 (18)

This might be a little low. The blowout loss to North Carolina still hurts, but wins over NC State and Pitt are solid, and the 31-14 victory over Conference USA champion UAB looks a lot better now.

17. BYU Cougars 9-1 (17)

The Cougars are off to the Boca Raton Bowl to face UCF after a very fun and very exciting season. There aren’t a ton of massive wins, but there are enough  good ones to be ranked a bit higher than this. It doesn’t matter – the Cougars are already settled into a bowl game.

16. Iowa Hawkeyes 6-2 (16)

The losses to Purdue and Northwestern happened to start the season, but a six-game winning streak to close things out was impressive. However, there wasn’t a win over anyone with a winning regular-season record. Even so, there were enough good victories to be in the top 16.

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15. North Carolina Tar Heels 8-3 (15)

The Tar Heels were impressive enough against Miami last week to hang around the top 15, and the loss to Notre Dame wasn’t awful. The losses to Florida State and Virginia might push the Tar Heels lower, but nothing much happened to knock the team down too much.

14. San Jose State Spartans 7-0 (24)

Call this a wish ranking, because it’s the right thing to do. San Jose State not only went unbeaten with a Mountain West Championship, but it won all seven games by double-digit. Beating Nevada and Boise State should help earn the Spartans top 15 consideration.

13. Northwestern Wildcats 6-2 (14)

The Cats fought the good fight in the Big Ten Championship loss to Ohio State, and the win over Iowa now looks terrific, but the loss to Michigan State stings. It was a terrific season to get to the second Big Ten title game in three years.

12. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 11-0 (12)

The committee still won’t get this right. It should put one-loss Louisiana ahead of Iowa State – the Ragin’ Cajuns beat the Cyclones – but it’ll get the unbeaten Chanticleers up higher since it’s the one team that beat the team that beat the team. There will be some call that they should be in the top ten, but being this high will be terrific.

11. Indiana Hoosiers 6-1 (11)

It’s going to be one of the biggest drama aspects of the rankings – will Indiana get ahead of Iowa State to be in the New Year’s Six? There’s no fantastic win, but there also aren’t the three losses like the Cyclones have.

NEXT: College Football Playoff Final Projection, Top 25 Prediction

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College Football Playoff Top 25: Penultimate Rankings. Who’s Sneaking Up?

The results from the penultimate round of the College Football Playoff top 25 rankings, released December 15th.

The results from the penultimate round of the College Football Playoff top 25 rankings, released December 15th.

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25. Colorado Buffaloes 4-1 (NR)

24. San Jose State Spartans 6-0 (NR)

23. Tulsa Golden Hurricane 5-1 (24)

22. NC State Wolfpack 8-3 (23)

21. Oklahoma State Cowboys 7-3 (24)

20. Texas Longhorns 6-3 (20)

19. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns 9-1 (19)

18. Miami Hurricanes 8-2 (10)

17. BYU Cougars 9-1 (18)

16. Iowa Hawkeyes 6-2 (16)

15. North Carolina Tar Heels 8-3 (17)

14. Northwestern Wildcats 6-1 (14)

13. USC Trojans 5-0 (15)

12. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 11-0 (13)

11. Indiana Hoosiers 6-1 (12)

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10. Oklahoma Sooners 8-2 (11)

9. Cincinnati Bearcats 8-0 (8)

8. Georgia Bulldogs 7-2 (9)

7. Florida Gators 8-1 (6)

6. Iowa State Cyclones 8-2 (7)

5. Texas A&M Aggies 7-1 (5)

4. Ohio State Buckeyes 5-0 (4)

3. Clemson Tigers 9-1 (3)

2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 10-0 (2)

1. Alabama Crimson Tide 10-0 (1)

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