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Florida Loses To LSU: What Does It Mean For The College Football Playoff? Who’s The Big Winner?

LSU beat Florida 37-34 in one of the biggest shockers of 2020. What does it all mean for the College Football Playoff? Who’s the big winner?

LSU beat Florida 37-34 in one of the biggest shockers of the season. What does it all mean for the College Football Playoff? Who’s the big winner?

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LSU hit its kick, Florida didn’t, and it turned into a shocking 37-34 Tiger win to throw the College Football Playoff situation into a tailspin.

So …

What Does It All Mean For Florida?

Florida is out of the College Football Playoff.

Maybe.

There might be a way the Gators could slide on into the CFP if they annihilate Alabama in the SEC Championship, and if Notre Dame blows out Clemson in the ACC Championship and/or Northwestern shocks Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship.

No, Cincinnati isn’t getting in, and no, a two-loss Big 12 champion wouldn’t get in over a two-loss Florida that beats the one of ones in Alabama.

The Gators blew it. All they had to do was win this against a mediocre-to-bad LSU, and the CFP was there for the taking against Bama. That’s all but gone.

The big winner is …

The ACC.

Florida’s loss all but locks Notre Dame into the College Football Playoff no matter what – check that; barring some 41-3ish wipeout, and then things get crazy – and it allows for Clemson to possibly sneak in at the 4 seed if it loses to the Irish in a replica of the earlier season classic.

Notre Dame’s big fear was a loss to Clemson, an Ohio State win, and a Florida upset over Alabama. If that happened, the Irish would’ve almost certainly have been out. That’s off the table now.

– Week 15 Scoreboard, Results, Predictions

The other big winner is …

Texas A&M.

The Aggies need to clear up the traffic ahead of them, and that included Florida – even though the Gators, because they controlled their own destiny, were a spot lower in the College Football Playoff rankings.

They still have that win over Florida, so now they need 1) Florida to beat Alabama in a close game – making that win over the Gators to be that much stronger, and/or 2) Notre Dame to obliterate Clemson – knocking out a two-loss Tiger team – and/or 3) a Northwestern win over Ohio State.

It’s not an easy path, but the Florida loss takes away the likelihood of it being Alabama, Clemson, Florida, and Ohio State or Notre Dame if the Gators beat Bama.

Besides the ACC and Texas A&M, the other big winner is …

USC.

No, it’s not going to happen, but with the big comeback win over UCLA, the Trojans are still somewhat alive in the College Football Playoff hunt.

It would take a whole lot of minor miracles, and a philosophical debate in the CFP committee room, but there still might be some love and respect thrown USC’s way if Alabama, Notre Dame and Ohio State win to make it possible for four unbeaten Power Five champs to be in.

Florida losing makes it easy to move USC up from 15 to around 9ish – at least there will be some movement.

Besides Florida, the big loser is …

The SEC.

The conference had a chance of getting two teams into the College Football Playoff, but now it’ll likely be just one.

More than that, though, the SEC Championship becomes a bit of an exhibition. Alabama is in the College Football Playoff as long as it doesn’t get destroyed, and Florida winning probably doesn’t matter.

What does it all mean for the College Football Playoff?

Actually … nothing.

The original projection was that Florida was going to lose to Alabama and go to the Orange Bowl. The bigger change is that it’s going to be against North Carolina and not Miami playing in Hard Rock Stadium.

If the Gators don’t go to the Orange, they’re still going to end up in a New Year’s Six game, and so will Georgia and Texas A&M. All three were originally likely to be in, anyway.

So after all of that, the original call still stands. Assume it’s Alabama vs. Notre Dame in the Sugar, and Ohio State and Clemson in the Rose.

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College Football Playoff Rankings: Alabama Still No. 1, Iowa State Moves Way Up

The results from the third round of the College Football Playoff top 25 rankings, released December 8th

The results from the third round of the College Football Playoff top 25 rankings, released December 8th.

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25. Missouri Tigers 6-3 (NR)

24. Tulsa Golden Hurricane 6-1 (24)

23. NC State Wolfpack 8-3 (NR)

22. Oklahoma State Cowboys 6-3 (15)

21. Colorado Buffaloes 4-0 (NR)

20. Texas Longhorns 6-3 (20)

19. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns 9-1 (25)

18. BYU Cougars 9-1 (13)

17. North Carolina Tar Heels 7-3 (17)

16. Iowa Hawkeyes 5-2 (19)

15. USC Trojans 4-0 (20)

14. Northwestern Wildcats 5-1 (14)

13. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 10-0 (18)

12. Indiana Hoosiers 6-1 (12)

11. Oklahoma Sooners 8-2 (11)

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10. Miami Hurricanes 8-1 (10)

9. Georgia Bulldogs 7-2 (8)

8. Cincinnati Bearcats 8-0 (7)

7. Iowa State Cyclones 8-2 (9)

6. Florida Gators 8-1 (6)

5. Texas A&M Aggies 7-1 (5)

4. Ohio State Buckeyes 5-0 (4)

3. Clemson Tigers 9-1 (3)

2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 10-0 (2)

1. Alabama Crimson Tide 9-0 (1)

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College Football Playoff Top 25 Rankings Prediction: What Will Round 3 Be On Tuesday?

What will the 2020 College Football Playoff top 25 rankings be when the third round is released on Tuesday night?

What will the 2020 College Football Playoff top 25 rankings be when the third round is released on Tuesday night?

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Just a few more of these to go, and this week should be relatively easy.

Remember, as always, the committee is giving its thoughts for right now, and not projecting for when the final rankings come out. Wait and see what happens after the conference championships, but for this week, there should be a whole lot of movement down low, a whole lot of new teams in the middle, and not much going on up top.

These are College Football Playoff ranking predictions. This isn’t how we’d do it – that’s what the CFN rankings are for – this is us projecting what they’ll be.

We’re trying to read the room.

College Football Playoff Rankings Prediction Top 25 Projection

25. Wisconsin Badgers 2-2

Last Week College Football Playoff Ranking: 16

The Case For This Spot: There really isn’t any, other than that the defense is No. 1 in the nation in a few categories and the wins over Illinois and Michigan were totally dominant. This is the Not A Lot Of Other Options No. 25 token ranking.

Up Next: at Iowa

24. Liberty Flames 9-1

Last Week College Football Playoff Ranking: Not Ranked

The Case For This Spot: The only loss was to a decent NC State team by one in the final moments on a blocked kick. The wins over Virginia Tech and Syracuse aren’t great, but they’re stronger than what a whole lot of other teams on this list have done.

Up Next: Possible Bowl Game

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23. NC State Wolfpack 8-3

Last Week College Football Playoff Ranking: Not Ranked

The Case For This Spot: It was a very quietly nice season with a four-game winning streak to close things out. The Wolfpack aren’t going to pass any eye test, but they handed Liberty its only loss, and they’ll get some great for a 44-41 fight against Miami.

Up Next: Possible Bowl Game

22. Texas Longhorns 6-3

Last Week College Football Playoff Ranking: Not Ranked

The Case For This Spot: 69-31 over Kansas State on the road. It was silly that the Longhorns were dropped out of the top 25 last week after a tight 23-20 loss to an Iowa State team that the committee loves with an undying passion, and now they’re back in after a blowout in Manhattan.

Up Next: at Kansas

21. North Carolina Tar Heels 7-3

Last Week College Football Playoff Ranking: Not Ranked

The Case For This Spot: There are warts. The loss to Florida State is unforgivable, and losing to Virginia hurts, but the committee’s version of the eye test should work, the performance against Notre Dame was solid, and there are enough wins to get the Heels just up against the top 20.

Up Next: at Miami

NEXT: Top 20 College Football Playoff Rankings Prediction

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College Football Playoff Rankings: Who Made The Big Move In The 2nd CFP Top 25?

The results from the second round of the College Football Playoff top 25 rankings, released December 1st.

The results from the second round of the College Football Playoff top 25 rankings, released December 1st.

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25. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns 8-1 (NR)

24. Tulsa Golden Hurricane 5-1 (25)

23. Oregon Ducks 3-1 (15)

22. Washington Huskies 3-0 (NR)

21. Marshall Thundering Herd 7-0 (21)

20. USC Trojans 3-0 (NR)

19. Iowa Hawkeyes 4-2 (24)

18. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 9-0 (20)

17. North Carolina Tar Heels 6-3 (19)

16. Wisconsin Badgers 2-1 (16)

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15. Oklahoma State Cowboys 6-2 (23)

14. Northwestern Wildcats 5-1 (8)

13. BYU Cougars 9-0 (14)

12. Indiana Hoosiers 5-1 (12)

11. Oklahoma Sooners 7-2 (11)

10. Miami Hurricanes 7-1 (10)

9. Iowa State Cyclones 7-2 (13)

8. Georgia Bulldogs 6-2 (9)

7. Cincinnati Bearcats 8-0 (7)

6. Florida Gators 7-1 (6)

5. Texas A&M Aggies 6-1 (5)

4. Ohio State Buckeyes 4-0 (4)

3. Clemson Tigers 8-1 (3)

2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 9-0 (2)

1. Alabama Crimson Tide 8-0 (1)

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Path To The Playoff: Ranking The 16 Teams Still In College Football Playoff Hunt

What 16 teams still have a realistic shot at getting into the 2020-2021 College Football Playoff? Here’s our ranking of who’s still in it.

What 16 teams still have a realistic shot at getting into the 2020-2021 College Football Playoff? Here’s our ranking of who’s still in it.

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What teams are realistically in the College Football Playoff hunt?

All unbeaten Power Five programs still have a shot, and several one-loss teams do, but lose two games, and no. Pac-12 teams with one loss … no. Group of Five programs with one loss … no, and being unbeaten doesn’t do much, either.

Below is a ranking of teams that have the best chances to get one of the final four spots, and who has the best path to the playoff. This isn’t a prediction of the College Football Playoff rankings – it’s a ranking who has the best shot to get in.

16. Marshall Thundering Herd (7-0)

CFP Week 1 Ranking: 21

Remaining Schedule: Rice, FIU, Conference USA Championship vs. UAB or UTSA

Path To The Playoff: There isn’t one, and it stinks that there’s no real path to a New Year’s Six game considering the Thundering Herd have been as dominant as any Group of Five program. The 17-7 win over Appalachian State is more impressive than it appears, and they handed Florida Atlantic its only loss of the year. However, even with an amazing D and seven double-digit point wins in seven games – the rest of the schedule stinks.

14. BYU Cougars (9-0)

CFP Week 1 Ranking: 14

Remaining Schedule: San Diego State

Path To The Playoff: There isn’t one unless BYU can somehow schedule a few Pac-12 teams who won’t want to take the chance on a loss. The entire world would have to melt down, and even then it would be a tough call to put in a team with one strong win over Boise State on the road – there aren’t any Power Five wins.

14. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (8-0)

CFP Week 1 Ranking: 20

Remaining Schedule: Liberty, at Troy, Sun Belt Championship vs. Louisiana

Path To The Playoff: It might seem crazy, but the College Football Playoff committee can twist this to potentially get Coastal Carolina close.

If the Chanticleers blow out a Liberty team that beat Virginia Tech and Syracuse – especially with the GameDay hype this weekend – and if they can win a rematch against Louisiana – who rocked Iowa State 31-14 in Ames – for the Sun Belt title, and if those are the only two losses Louisiana suffers all year, and if Iowa State is the Big 12 champion, there’s a far, far, far better resumé argument than Cincinnati or BYU could make.

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13. Cincinnati Bearcats (8-0)

CFP Week 1 Ranking: 7

Remaining Schedule: at Tulsa, American Athletic Conference Championship vs. Tulsa

Path To The Playoff: There really isn’t one, and it’s not helped by needing to beat Tulsa twice just to go undefeated – there won’t be any real credit for that second win. The Bearcats have been dominant, but there aren’t any Power Five wins, and taking down UCF by three isn’t as impressive as it seems.

However, if they go unbeaten and Florida loses to Alabama, and if Notre Dame beats Clemson, and if Ohio State doesn’t play in or win the Big Ten Championship, and if Miami loses to North Carolina, and if Texas A&M loses to Auburn, and if the Pac-12 champion has one loss … then maybe.

12. Colorado Buffaloes (3-0)

CFP Week 1 Ranking: Not Ranked

Remaining Schedule: at Arizona, Utah

Path To The Playoff: The easy path would be for USC to lose one of its last two games and for Colorado to win out. If that happens, the Buffaloes will be 5-0 in the Pac-12 Championship with a shot at being an unbeaten Power Five champ.

The only reason they’re lower on this list than USC and Washington is the tie-breaker scenario. If they win their last two, and USC wins its last two, USC goes to the Pac-12 Championship because it’ll be 5-0 against all Pac-12 teams, and the Buffs will have a win over San Diego State on its resumé and just three wins over teams from the Pac-12 South.

This goes for Washington and USC, too – they also need Clemson to lose, and an A&M loss would help, too. A Florida loss to Alabama could also be a must.

NEXT: Path To The Playoff: Teams that have a more likely shot at the College Football Playoff

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College Football Playoff Top 25 Rankings Prediction: What Will Round 2 Be On Tuesday?

What will the 2020 College Football Playoff top 25 rankings be when the second round is released on Tuesday night?

What will the 2020 College Football Playoff top 25 rankings be when the second round is released on Tuesday night?

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The first go-round of the 2020 College Football Playoff rankings were fine. There was one massive misfire that called into question the entire process, but for the most part there wasn’t a whole lot to get into a twist over.

Remember, 1) these rankings are just a snapshot – they get thrown out and the process starts over next week. 2) Every spot is debated and agreed to, and 3) there aren’t any rules – the committee can pick anyone it wants to.

With that said, don’t get into a twist over where the teams are for now. Win your Power Five conference championship, go unbeaten or lose one game along the way – unless you’re the Pac-12 this year, or potentially the Big Ten champ – and you’ll be in.

One last thing – these are College Football Playoff ranking predictions. This isn’t how we’d do it – that’s what the CFN rankings are for – so don’t honk at us if you have. beef.

College Football Playoff Rankings Prediction Top 25 Projection

25. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns 8-1

Last Week College Football Playoff Ranking: Not Ranked

The Case For This Spot: The committee totally blew it in its first rankings. Louisiana ripped Iowa State 31-14 in Ames in the opener, its only loss is 30-27 against Coastal Carolina, and it’s coming off a 70-10 win over ULM. The Ragin’ Cajuns should be ranked higher than Iowa State and Oklahoma, but won’t be. This will be a token ranking in case the committee has to boost them higher after next week.

Up Next: at Appalachian State

24. Oregon Ducks 3-1

Last Week College Football Playoff Ranking: 15

The Case For This Spot: The committee won’t want to push the Ducks totally out of the top 25, but it could be close considering the loss at Oregon State isn’t all that great. The CFP will still like the talent level and the 3-0 start – the win over UCLA, though, isn’t enough to warrant too much more respect than this.

Up Next: at Cal

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23. Colorado Buffaloes 3-0

Last Week College Football Playoff Ranking: Not Ranked

The Case For This Spot: Colorado will suffer from brand name. The unbeaten Buffaloes have a better body of work than USC, but it won’t matter too much since the committee probably hasn’t payed enough attention to any of their games. The 20-10 win over San Diego State in a last-minute matchup should receive more credit than it’ll get.

Up Next: at Arizona

22. Tulsa Golden Hurricane 5-1

Last Week College Football Playoff Ranking: 25

The Case For This Spot: It should actually be higher, but this is about as high as the committee will likely be prepared to go. The Gulden Hurricane beat UCF and SMU, and the only loss was 16-7 to Oklahoma State on the road.

Up Next: at Navy

21. Washington Huskies 3-0

Last Week College Football Playoff Ranking: Not Ranked

The Case For This Spot: The committee will make sure all the unbeaten teams are in the mix, and Washington’s good start, strong comeback win over Utah, and opening day better-than-it-looked-then win over an Oregon State team that just beat Oregon is enough to push for close to the top 20.

Up Next: Stanford

NEXT: Top 20 College Football Playoff Rankings Prediction

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College Football Playoff Rankings: Alabama No. 1 In First CFP Top 25

The results from the first round of the College Football Playoff top 25 rankings, released November 24th.

The results from the first round of the College Football Playoff top 25 rankings, released November 24th.

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25. Tulsa Golden Hurricane 5-1

24. Iowa Hawkeyes 3-2

23. Oklahoma State Cowboys 5-2

22. Auburn Tigers 5-2

21. Marshall Thundering Herd 7-0

20. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 8-0

19. North Carolina Tar Heels 6-2

18. USC Trojans 3-0

17. Texas Longhorns 5-2

16. Wisconsin Badgers 2-1

15. Oregon Ducks 3-0

14. BYU Cougars 9-0

13. Iowa State Cyclones 6-2

12. Indiana Hoosiers 4-1

11. Oklahoma Sooners 6-2

10. Miami Hurricanes 7-1

9. Georgia Bulldogs 5-2

8. Northwestern Wildcats 5-0

7. Cincinnati Bearcats 8-0

6. Florida Gators 6-1

5. Texas A&M Aggies 5-1

4. Ohio State Buckeyes 4-0

3. Clemson Tigers 7-1

2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 8-0

1. Alabama Crimson Tide 7-0

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Path To The Playoff: 20 Teams In The College Football Playoff Hunt. Who Will Make It?

Going into Thanksgiving week, what 20 teams still have a shot at getting into the 2020-2021 College Football Playoff? Who will make the CFP?

Going into Thanksgiving week, what 20 teams still have a shot at getting into the 2020-2021 College Football Playoff? Who will make the CFP?

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Right about now in most college football seasons, we all have a handle on the teams realistically in the national championship and the College Football Playoff chase. This year it’s a whole lot more complicated.

The Pac-12 is just getting going – and yet, its season is almost over.

The SEC is winding down, the Big Ten is in the meat of its slate, and without the normal array of non-conference games, there are more Group of Five programs than ever with a crazy dream of slipping into the top four.

What 20 teams still have a path to the playoff?

A few ground rules here the apply to everyone on this list.

1. Talk COVID out of the equation. Any one of these programs could take a severe hit with an outbreak, and to be gross, several teams on this list only have a realistic shot if others aren’t able to go. But for now, for the sake of fun, let’s just assume – and hope, and pray – that everyone is safe and this all goes off without a hitch.

2. Even in this crazy year, let’s just stick with the norms. Go unbeaten and win your Power Five conference, and you’re a mortal lock to be in. This year, though, that’s not a sure thing for the Pac-12 champion. More on that in a bit.

3. No two-loss team has ever made it into the top four. Let’s assume that it’s not happening this year, either, which wipes out the Big 12. Also, any one loss team from a Group of Five conference – a team from the American Athletic Conference, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West and Sun Belt – realistically has no chance, either.

4. Realistically, no MAC team has any shot, either. This year it’s an all-MAC slate, so with no non-conference wins to go by, unbeaten Buffalo, Kent State, and Western Michigan teams were eliminated before the season even started.

Ranked by who has the lowest chance to make the College Football Playoff to who has the most realistic shot of getting in, here’s the path to the playoff for 20 teams still in the hunt.

CFN Rankings 1-127 | CFN Bowl Projections
20 Most Important College Football Thoughts Ever
College Football Playoff Top 25 Projection
10 Best Games of Week 12: Highlights, Top Plays

Path To The Playoff
– Teams that will be told they can make the CFP (but really can’t)
– Teams that can make the CFP … with a LOT of help
– Teams that can make the CFP … with a little help
– Teams that control their CFP destiny
– 4 most likely teams to make the CFP

Path To The Playoff: The desperate long shots

20. Washington State Cougars (1-1)

This is crazy-town, but …

– Get healthy. the Cougars already missed one game and the Apple Cup against Washington is off.

– Schedule a few non-conference games to fit in. Playing anyone to get a win would be good, playing – and beating – someone like BYU would be a huge help.

– Win at USC in convincing fashion, rock Cal, and hope for Oregon and Washington to each lose twice.

– Somehow, through all of the madness, get to the Pac-12 Championship and win in a blowout.

– There have to be several multi-loss Power Five conference champions, and Wazzu has to be beyond amazing down the stretch.

Will Washington State Make The College Football Playoff? If this happens, that means we’ll have experienced the most insane next month of college football ever. (So, to answer the question, very, very no.)

19. Maryland Terrapins (2-1)

Even with the 43-3 loss at Northwestern, the Terps still technically have a shot … sort of.

– Get healthy. The Terps can’t miss another game, or it won’t be eligible for the Big Ten Championship.

– Blowout Indiana in Bloomington, and then blowout Michigan and Rutgers.

– Ohio State has to lose two of its last three games – at Illinois, at Michigan State, Michigan – or (sorry, but breaking one of the rules here) it has to miss two more games and not be eligible to play in the Big Ten Championship.

– The Terps have to get to and win the Big Ten Championship – impressively. So …

Will Maryland Make The College Football Playoff? Hard no.

NEXT: Path To The Playoff: Teams that will be told they can make the College Football Playoff (but really can’t)

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College Football Playoff Top 25 Projection, Rankings Prediction: What Will They Be On Tuesday?

What will the 2020 College Football Playoff top 25 rankings be when they’re first released on Tuesday night?

What will the 2020 College Football Playoff top 25 rankings be when they’re first released on Tuesday night?

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The first round of College Football Playoff rankings will be released on Tuesday night. What will they be? In this crazy year when some teams have played almost a full season, and some others are just getting started, how will a top 25 be put together?

A few ground rules when it comes to the College Football Playoff process.

1. The rankings are meant to capture the moment. Every week’s rankings are unique. When they come out, they’ll be a snapshot. They’ll then be thrown out, and the whole process will start over next week.

2. The committee tends to like big wins, hates awful losses, and in general over the last six years, it hasn’t punished teams that suffer losses to the elite teams.

3. Every spot in the rankings is debated. The committee argues and discusses the No. 24 spot, and then the No. 24, and so on up until No. 1. This is a meticulous process. If you don’t like the ranking, at least know there was a whole lot of thought put into it.

Most of all …

4. There aren’t any rules except for one – no other ranking system matters. The AP and Coaches polls don’t exist here. These are the rankings of record, and they’re based on the whims of a panel of judges. They have their own stats and their own ideas, but they can do whatever they want to.

College Football Playoff Rankings Prediction Top 25 Projection

25. Auburn Tigers 5-2

The Case For This Spot: The Tigers have five wins in the SEC. Say what you will about the conference being overrated and overloved, going 5-2 in the conference is good no matter what. Best of all, the team is quietly getting better over the last three games.

Should Be Higher: One of the two losses is at Georgia, losing 27-6 when the Bulldog defense played one of its better games of the year. The 48-11 win over LSU was impressive – even if it’s not the same LSU – and stuffing Kentucky, Tennessee, and even Ole Miss and Arkansas is a more impressive body of work than what most of the teams on this list have done.

Should Be Lower: South Carolina 30, Auburn 22. Combine that with no wins over anyone currently with a winning record, and several other teams not on this list have a beef.

Up Next: Alabama

24. Wisconsin Badgers 2-1

The Case For This Spot: When this team is fully healthy, fully functional, and with everyone okay, it’s as effective and as deadly as any in college football for what it does. Illinois and Michigan might not be that great, but what the Badgers did were two of the more impressive back-to-back performances by any Power Five team.

Should Be Higher: The loss at Northwestern was weird and ugly, but lost in the 17-7 loss was a dominant performance by the defense. The offense was without most of its top receivers, and it was a road loss against an unbeaten team.

Should Be Lower: Northwestern 17, Wisconsin 7. Combine the horrible offensive game with just three games of sample size, and being just inside the top 25 is good enough.

Up Next: Minnesota

23. North Carolina Tar Heels 6-2

The Case For This Spot: The offense is a blast, the defense is … the offense is a blast. The Tar Heels haven’t and won’t play Miami, but a case could be made that they’re the third-best team in the ACC. With 56 points against Duke and 59 against Wake Forest, the offense is getting better and better.

Should Be Higher: The offense is the real deal. It’s balanced, it’s devastating, and it’s the type of team no one wants to face. We’ll know a whole lot more after the Notre Dame game this weekend.

Should Be Lower: Florida State 31, North Carolina 28. Virginia 41. No one else expected to be in the top 25 will have two losses this bad.

Up Next: Notre Dame

22. Tulsa Golden Hurricane 5-1

The Case For This Spot: The Golden Hurricane are on a five-game winning streak with a magical quality to its run, coming up with thrillers over SMU and Tulane over the last two weeks.

Should Be Higher: The resumé, is far, far, far, far better than BYU’s and Marshall’s, and – it could be argued – is better than Cincinnati’s. The lone loss was on the road to Oklahoma State in a 16-7 fight that went down to the wire.

Should Be Lower: It shouldn’t be. Tulsa deserves to be somewhere around the top 15 – especially with a 34-26 win over UCF.

Up Next: at Houston

21. Texas Longhorns 5-2

The Case For This Spot: On one side, Texas has just two losses to TCU and Oklahoma in games that could’ve gone either way. On the other side, it has wins over Texas Tech. Oklahoma State and West Virginia that also could’ve gone the other way.

Should Be Higher: The Longhorns are good enough to have come this close to beating Oklahoma, and they were able to get by Oklahoma State in Stillwater despite not playing all that well, but …

Should Be Lower: Again, they should’ve lost to Texas Tech and the defeat to TCU looks awful now.

Up Next: Iowa State

NEXT: Top 20 First College Football Playoff Rankings Prediction

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College Football Playoff Top 25 Projection, Rankings Prediction: What Will They Be On Nov. 24?

What will the College Football Playoff rankings be when they’re first released on Tuesday, November 24th?

What will the College Football Playoff rankings be when they’re first released on Tuesday, November 24th?

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In this craziest of INSANE years, how do you possibly put together a proper College Football Playoff Top 25? The committee is going to try doing it next week, to be released on Tuesday, November 24th.

Here’s the drill. We’re going to try protecting what the initial College Football Playoff Top 25 will be after next Saturday’s games. That means some calls have to be made on who’ll win, to go along with trying to read the minds of the committee.

A few ground rules when it comes to the College Football Playoff process.

1. The rankings are meant to capture the moment. They’re not set in stone, meaning the whole thing gets thrown out and everything starts all over again the following week. So if a team is ranked, say, 15th, it’s not a sure thing that it moves up with a win or down with a loss.

2. To generalize after six years of College Football Playoff rankings, the committee tends to like big wins, hates awful losses, and it doesn’t really penalize defeats to big teams. When they’re arguing in that room – again, in general – the big win gets the most attention.

3. Every spot in the rankings is argued over. There’s a debate over the No. 25 team, there’s an agreement, and then there’s a debate over the No. 24 spot, there’s an agreement, and so on. You might not agree with the rankings, but be secure in the knowledge that at least there was a discussion and thought process into every aspect.

And finally …

4. There are no hard rules. The committee can pick any teams it wants to. It goes by its own set of proprietary stats, strength of schedule is huge, and there’s a premium on head-to-head wins. After all of that, throw in the eye test to go along with the resumé.

And remember, the AP and Coaches polls don’t exist. The College Football Playoff rankings are their own separate world, and they’re the ones that matter.

So what will they be? Here’s the best guess for the first run of College Football Playoff rankings – again, for Tuesday the 24th, not this week …

College Football Playoff Rankings Prediction Top 25 Projection

25. North Carolina Tar Heels 6-2

The Tar Heels are going to be get crushed for the loss to Florida State – arguably the worst defeat by anyone in the top 25. There’s a decent win over Virginia Tech, but there isn’t one win to get fired up about. The Notre Dame game comes in two weeks.
Up Next: Notre Dame (Nov. 27)

24. Texas Longhorns 5-2

The overall resumé isn’t all that great, and a loss to TCU will sting, but the win at Oklahoma State and the close loss to Oklahoma will be just enough to sneak into the top 25.
Up Next: at Kansas

23. USC Trojans 2-0

MASSIVE assumption – there won’t be enough games to go off of to give USC a whole lot of credit. However, again, these rankings start over next week, so the more wins, the bigger the body of work to get credit for.

The committee won’t like the eye test of the first two wins over Arizona and Arizona State, and the overall metrics won’t work because Utah won’t have played anyone when it hosts USC next week. However, if the Trojans win, that will be the excuse needed to get close to the top 20.
Up Next: at Utah

22. Liberty Flames 8-0

This is a complete and total guess – even more than any of the other teams on this list. If Liberty loses to NC State this week, it’ll start around 22ish. If it wins, it won’t be crazy to assume it’ll be in the top ten with road wins over Virginia Tech, NC State, and – scoff, but it’s an ACC team – Syracuse. That would be three road wins over Power Five teams, while BYU and Cincinnati won’t have any.

So again, this ranking is the most fluid of the bunch – don’t get into a twist one way or another here.
Up Next: at NC State

21. Iowa State Cyclones 5-2

The College Football Playoff committee will catch the one glaring error in the other polls – Louisiana 31, Iowa State 14. The win over Oklahoma is big, but that’s offset by the loss to Oklahoma State. there won’t be any impressive wins past the one over the Sooners.
Up Next: Kansas State

NEXT: Top 20 First College Football Playoff Rankings Prediction

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