Tag: Celtics Heat odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Boston Celtics at Miami Heat Game 4 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Boston Celtics at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The top-seeded Boston Celtics meet the 8-seed Miami Heat in Game 4 of a best-of-7 Western Conference, 1st-round series Monday. The Celtics lead the series 2-1. Tip-off from Kaseya Center is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Celtics vs. Heat odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Celtics bounced back from their Game 2 loss at home with a dominant 104-84 Game 3 victory over the Heat. F Jayson Tatum and G Jaylen Brown each had 22 points in the victory. Tatum also added 10 rebounds and 6 assists for Boston, which led Game 3 wire-to-wire and reclaimed the home-court edge.

C Bam Adebayo scored 20 or more points for the 3rd time this series, which is surprising given the fact that Boston outscored the Heat 42-36 in the paint. Miami also got 15 points each from G Tyler Herro and F Nikola Jovic in the loss.

The Heat need to protect the ball better and someone to help Adebayo on the offensive end or this series will end back in Boston in Game 5.

Celtics at Heat odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:52 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Celtics -550 (bet $550 to win $100) | Heat
    +400 (bet $100 to win $400)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Celtics -10.5 (-110) | Heat +10.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 203.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Celtics at Heat key injuries

Celtics

  • None

Heat

  • F Jimmy Butler (knee) out
  • G Terry Rozier (neck) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Celtics at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 110, Heat 97

Moneyline

The Celtics (-550) will win this game, but no way am I betting over 5 units to win 1 back. I’ll be saving my wager for the spread in this one.

PASS.

Against the spread

Take the CELTICS -10.5 (-110) in this one. Boston got its wake-up call in Game 2 and took care of business in Game 3. The Heat don’t have the depth to keep up with this well-oiled machine in Boston.

The scary thing is, Boston won by 20 and did not really play all that well in Game 3. The Celtics have won 8 of their last 10 straight up against the Heat and covered the spread in 2 of 3 games in this series thus far.

Over/Under

I really want to take the Under, but this number has gotten too low for me. If it were 205 or higher, I’d jump on it. The Under has gone 2-1 in this series, but this is the lowest number we’ve seen.

I’m going to PASS.

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Boston Celtics at Miami Heat Game 3 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Boston Celtics at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The top-seeded Boston Celtics battle the 8th-seeded Miami Heat in Game 3 of a best-of-7 Eastern Conference, 1st-round series Saturday. The series is tied 1-1. Tip-off from Kaseya Center is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET (TNT). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Celtics vs. Heat odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

Boston was upset 111-101 against the Heat in Game 2 Wednesday while failing to cover as a 14-point home favorite. G Jaylen Brown scored a game-high 33 points, while only 2 other Celtics players scored in double figures. The Celtics shot 46.3% from the field in the loss.

G Tyler Herro scored a team-high 24 points on 6 of 11 from 3, while all 5 Heat starters scored in double figures. The Heat shot 49.3% from the field in the win.

Celtics at Heat odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:50 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Celtics -450 (bet $450 to win $100) | Heat +333 (bet $100 to win $333)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Celtics -9.5 (-110) | Heat +9.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 204.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Celtics at Heat key injuries

Celtics

  • None

Heat

  • F Jimmy Butler (knee) out
  • F Haywood Highsmith (arm) available
  • F Kevin Love (arm) available
  • F Duncan Robinson (back) available
  • G Terry Rozier (neck) out
  • G Delon Wright (personal reasons) questionable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Celtics at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 109, Heat 103

Moneyline

PASS.

There is no value on the top-ranked Celtics (-450), who are 27-14 on the road this season, to take down the Heat, who are 23-19 at home.

Against the spread

LEAN HEAT +9.5 (-110).

Miami is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games, including 2-1 ATS in its last 3 as an underdog, while Boston is just 3-5-2 ATS in its last 10. With the Heat stealing a game on the road, expect them to keep it close in Game 3.

Over/Under

BET OVER 204.5 (-105).

Both the Celtics and Heat have hit the Over in 7 of their last 10 games, including the 1st 2 in this series.

Boston has scored 101 or more points in 9 of its last 10 games, including 114 or more in 6 of its last 10.

Miami has scored 111 or more points in 7 of its last 10 games. With this low of a total, hammer the Over.

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Boston Celtics at Miami Heat Game 3 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Boston Celtics at Miami Heat Game 3 odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Boston Celtics take on the Miami Heat Sunday at Kaseya Center for Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Miami leads 2-0. Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Celtics vs. Heat odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Heat are in the driver’s seat. They stole 2 games from the Celtics in Boston and have all the momentum. The Celtics were leading by 8 heading into the 4th quarter and led by 9 points with less than 7 minutes to go.

And yet the Heat pulled it out winning 111-105, thanks to 4 fewer turnovers and 10 more rebounds. Boston was favored in both games and they will need to win as a road favorite in Miami if they want to capture this series.

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Celtics at Heat odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:38 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Celtics -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Heat +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Celtics -3.5 (-110) | Heat +3.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 213.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Celtics at Heat key injuries

Celtics

  • F Danilo Gallinari (knee) out

Heat

  • G Tyler Herro (hand) out
  • G Victor Oladipo (knee) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Celtics at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 117, Heat 109

Moneyline

Remember last round when the Celtics traveled to Philadelphia trailing 3-2 in the series for Game 6 and pulled it out? And their following blow-out win in Game 7? Yes, the Celtics have the lowest winning percentage in the playoffs (53%) of the remaining 4 teams, but when it matters they come to play.

If they fall 0-3 they will not advance, and frankly even down 2-1 is a sizable hole but one step at a time.

BET CELTICS (-160).

Against the spread

The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after an ATS loss. Also, in these playoffs the Celtics lowest margin of victory is 8 points. I like the increased value in the spread.

LEAN CELTICS -3.5 (-110).

Over/Under

Trends point toward a relatively high-scoring game. Boston has gone Over in 10 of their last 12 road games. The Heat pair that perfectly with their recent home record where they are 10-2 in their last 12 in Miami.

LEAN OVER 213.5 (-110).

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Boston Celtics at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Boston Celtics at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Boston Celtics (35-13) wrap up a 3-game road trip at the Miami Heat (26-22) Tuesday. Tip-off from Miami-Dade Arena is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Celtics vs. Heat odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Celtics are coming off a blowout 113-98 loss at the Orlando Magic Monday. F Jayson Tatum and G Jaylen Brown each scored 26 points, but the teams’ 18 turnovers proved to be too much to overcome. Boston has split the first 2 games of its 3-game road trip.

Miami is coming off a 100-96 win vs. New Orleans Sunday in an uncharacteristically sloppy game. Both teams committed more than 20 turnovers and shot worse than 27% from beyond the arc. Miami will need to be more polished against one of the best teams in the NBA Tuesday.

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Celtics at Heat odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:38 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Celtics +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Heat -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Celtics +2.5 (-115) | Heat -2.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 219.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Celtics at Heat key injuries

Celtics

  • Not yet submitted

Heat

  • None

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Celtics at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 108, Heat 106

Moneyline

LEAN CELTICS (+115).

The Celtics and Heat are two solid teams with lots of experience playing against each other which is why the line is so close. The Celtics are one of the best road teams in the Association with a 17-8 road record, but this will be a tough matchup. The loss to the Magic snapped their 9-game win streak, but Boston should get back on track with a victory in a winnable game Tuesday.

Against the spread

LEAN CELTICS +2.5 (-115).

The Celtics are phenomenal when playing on back-to-back nights. Boston is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games on 0 days’ rest. The Celtics have also been good ATS in recent meetings with the Heat, going 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Miami and 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings overall.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 219.5 (-112).

Recent trends suggest the Under will be the much safer bet Tuesday. The under is 4-1 in the Celtics’ last 5 games overall and is 5-1 in the Heat’s last 6 home games. The Under is 12-4 in the Heat’s last 16 games playing on 1 day of rest and is 5-2 the last 7 times these squads have met in Miami.

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Boston Celtics at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Boston Celtics at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Heat (0-1) welcome the Boston Celtics (1-0) to FTX Arena Friday. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Celtics vs. Heat odds, and our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Celtics come into this battle after opening the entire NBA season up Tuesday with a 126-117 home win over the Philadelphia 76ers as 3-point favorites. Boston was after the 1st quarter but rallied to take the lead by winning the 2nd and 3rd quarters.

The Celtics were able to use a combined 70 points from F Jayson Tatum and G Jaylen Brown to pull ahead. Newcomer G Malcolm Brogdon chipped in well with 16 points in his Celtics debut.

The Heat lost their opener Wednesday 116-108 as 7.5-point favorites to the visiting Chicago Bulls who were without G Zach LaVine.

Miami had 3 players top 20 points as F Jimmy Butler led the way with 24 points and 8 rebounds. The Heat will ask more of C Bam Adebayo, who scored just 12 points and had 9 rebounds in their opener.

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Celtics at Heat odds

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:08 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Celtics -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Heat +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Celtics -2.5 (-110) | Heat +2.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 219.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Celtics at Heat key injuries

Celtics

  • C Robert Williams III (knee) out

Heat

  • G Victor Oladipo (knee) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Celtics at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 108, Celtics 106

Moneyline

SPRINKLE HEAT (+110).

The Heat being home underdogs is criminal, and although the Celtics did beat the 76ers, it seems unlikely they will get a similar level of production from Brown and Tatum.

Also, Butler abused the Celtics in a 7-game playoff series last season. The Heat are 0-1 and the Celtics are 1-0, and considering how each played, this is a perfect buy-low opportunity for Miami.

Against the spread

BET HEAT +2.5 (-110).

The Heat had the 4th-best defensive rating and 6th-best net rating last season. With a roster that mimics that of last season, the offensive ceiling is capped for Miami, but it should still thrive defensively.

The Heat played well Wednesday despite losing. Miami had 19 turnovers, but that isn’t how the Boston defense thrives, ranking 13th in turnovers forced last season.

The Heat did shoot 46.3% from the field. If the Celtics don’t create those turnovers and their stars regress as expected, the Heat should be able to cover as home ‘dogs.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 219.5 (-112).

Both teams ranked in the top 4 in defensive rating last season. There’s not much reason to believe Tatum or Brown will top 35 points against Butler and Adebayo.

That was far above their average, and regression for Boston is expected. Similarly, the Heat shot well and may not have that same success as Boston led the league in opponents’ field goal percentage last season.

Expect a low-scoring primetime game.

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Boston Celtics at Miami Heat Game 7 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Boston Celtics at Miami Heat Game 7 odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 2 seed Boston Celtics meet the No. 1 seed Miami Heat Sunday in the decisive Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals at FTX Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Celtics vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

The Heat kept their season alive by upsetting the Celtics 111-103 in Boston in Game 6 as 9-point underdogs. Miami outscored Boston in three of the four quarters and outperformed the Celtics in three of the “four factors.”

Miami SF Jimmy Butler had a game for the ages. He scored 47 points on 55.2% shooting (16-for-29) and a perfect 11-for-11 from the line with 9 rebounds and 8 assists.

Each team covered the spread 3 times in this series, but the Celtics have a plus-5.9 net rating. The Over//Under (O/U) is 4-2.

Celtics at Heat odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:50 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Celtics -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Heat +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Celtics -3.5 (-108) | Heat +3.5 (-112)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 196.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Celtics at Heat key injuries

Celtics

  • PG Marcus Smart (ankle) questionable
  • C Robert Williams III (knee) questionable

Heat

  • PG Tyler Herro (groin) questionable
  • PG Kyle Lowry (hamstring) questionable
  • SG Max Strus (hamstring) questionable
  • PF P.J. Tucker (knee) questionable
  • PG Gabe Vincent (hamstring) questionable

[tipico]

Celtics at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 101, Celtics 96

Money line

LEAN HEAT (+130) . Their spread is the sharper play even though the first 6 games of this series have been decided by at least 6 points.

Miami has the edge for Game 7 because it has the best player in the series (Butler), more depth, big-game experience and continuity and, obviously, home-court advantage.

More importantly, the Heat are winning the possession battle for this series, outperforming the Celtics in both rebounding and turnover rates.

The other two “four factors” — effective-field goal shooting and free-throw attempt rate — can be highly variant. Those areas tend to favor the home side because role players shoot better at home and home teams typically get the benefit of the whistle.

Also, Boston struggled to win close games during the regular season, partially due to its lack of a true point guard. The Celtics were 13-22 in the “clutch” with a minus-9.5 net rating. “Clutch” is defined by games within a 5-point margin inside of 5 minutes to play.

Boston’s absence of a floor general leads to the Celtics relying on contested long 2-pointers or 3-pointers. Boston is 2nd in 3-point attempt rate for the playoffs and Miami was 2nd in defensive 3-point shooting percentage this season. The Celtics could waste possessions with poor shot selection.

The bottom line is that the HEAT (+130) have more value in Game 7 because they are home, will have more possessions and get easier looks.

I’ll take whatever points I can get with Miami.

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Against the spread

BET HEAT +3.5 (-112) instead of or heavier than their ML based on the previous analysis.

Miami’s spread has a contrarian angle since most of the market is betting the Celtics -3.5 (-108), according to VegasInsider.com and Pregame.com.

I’d rather be on the same side as the oddsmakers in these high-stakes games since the markets are tight and these teams are evenly matched. It’s typically profitable being on the same side as the House.

HEAT +3.5  (-112) is my favorite wager in Game 7.

Something to consider: If you take Miami’s spread pregame and the Heat get up double digits early, then you can take a “middle” or “hedge” position by betting the Celtics in-game.

Over/Under

PASS. 

This is a sharp total and Game 7’s typically play Under the total. But both teams chuck 3-pointers, the Over has cashed in 4 of 6 games this series and the Over is 11-5 in the last 16 Celtics-Heat meetings.

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Boston Celtics at Miami Heat Game 5 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Boston Celtics at Miami Heat Game 5 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The top-seeded Miami Heat host the No. 2 seed Boston Celtics Wednesday for a pivotal Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals at FTX Arena. The series is tied 2-2 and tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Celtics vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Boston evened the series Monday with a 102-82 Game 4 beatdown at home. The Heat missed their first 14 field goals and the starting 5 scored the fewest points (18) by a playoff team’s starting lineup since 1970-71.

Celtics All-Star SF Jayson Tatum lit up the Heat for 31 points on 8-for-16 shooting with 8 rebounds, 5 assists and 2 blocks, and Boston outperformed Miami in three of the “four factors” Monday.

Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: Boston Celtics, Miami Heat Game 5

Celtics at Heat odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:04 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Celtics -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Heat +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
  • Against the spread: Celtics -2.5 (-115) | Heat +2.5 (-107)
  • Over/Under: 203.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Celtics at Heat key injuries

Celtics

  • PG Marcus Smart (ankle) questionable
  • C Robert Williams III (knee) questionable

Heat

  • PG Tyler Herro (groin) questionable
  • PG Kyle Lowry (hamstring) questionable
  • SG Max Strus (hamstring) questionable
  • PF P.J. Tucker (knee) questionable
  • PG Gabe Vincent (hamstring) questionable

[tipico]

Celtics at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 107, Celtics 102

Money line

PASS with a strong lean toward the Heat (+120).

I like Miami getting points and will generally sprinkle on an underdog’s ML when betting it to cover.

Money is pouring in on the Celtics, so the Heat’s ML will get fatter if they get bad injury news. Wait until closer to the tip-off to get a better price for Miami, both ATS and on the ML.

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Against the spread

BET HEAT +2.5 (-107).

This sharper side of the market favors Miami while the public is betting the Celtics.

According to Tipico Sportsbook, 75% of the cash is on Miami, but roughly that same percentage of the bets are on Boston. It’s wiser to follow the money when it’s counter to the public because professional bettors put up more dough than your average Joe.

This is a profitable spot for the Heat, who are 4-1 ATS as home underdogs with a plus-7.5 ATS margin, 21-11-1 ATS following a loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after a loss.

Miami also has a significant coaching edge since Erik Spoelstra has “been there and done that,” while Celtics coach Ime Udoka is in his first year on the job. Boston’s offense has the second-highest 3-point attempt rate in these playoffs and Spoelstra can out-scheme a predictable offense.

BET HEAT +2.5 (-107).

Over/Under

BET OVER 203.5 (-112).

Miami’s offense will bounce back from an all-time playoff clunker. This could turn into a 3-point shootout since Boston’s 3-point attempt rate is through the roof and the Heat had the best 3-point shooting percentage in the NBA during the regular season.

Furthermore, the total has been steamed up by sharp action, Miami is 9-2 O/U in the last 11 games vs. teams with a winning record, Boston is 8-2-1 O/U in the last 11 games as a road favorite and the Over has cashed in 10 of the last 14 Celtics-Heat meetings.

Miami plus the points (+2.5) is my preferred wager because the coaching edge and market movement are my strongest handicapping angles for Game 5. Plus, the Heat could try to muck up the game depending on who suits up for them.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors Game 2 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors Game 2 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 3 seed Golden State Warriors host the No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks Friday at Chase Center for Game 2 of their Western Conference Finals series. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Golden State routed Dallas 112-87 in Game 1 Wednesday as the Warriors outshot the Mavs from everywhere on the floor and held Dallas to a 14-to-13 assist-to-turnover rate.

The Warriors defended Mavs All-Star PG Luka Doncic very well in Game 1, holding him to just 20 points on 6-for-17 (33.3%) shooting and forcing him into 7 turnovers.

Dallas is 3-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) vs. Golden State this season with the Over/Under (O/U going 2-3.

Mavericks at Warriors odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:50 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Mavericks +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Warriors -280 (bet $280 to win $100)
  • Against the spread: Mavericks +6.5 (-112) | Warriors -6.5 (-108)
  • Over/Under: 213.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Mavericks at Warriors key injuries

Mavericks

  • None

Warriors

  • F Andre Iguodala (back) out
  • SG Gary Payton II (elbow) out

[tipico]

Mavericks at Warriors picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 107, Mavericks 103

Money line

SPRINKLE on MAVERICKS (+220) if at all

They are just 10-19 SU as road underdogs, while the Warriors are 36-9 SU as home favorites.

Dallas’ spread is a sharp play and this ML’s payout is juicy. It’s hard to disregard Game 1’s lopsided result but that’s what you have to do in backing the Mavericks Friday.

Game 1 was a lot more of a toss-up than the final score indicates, according to ShotQuality.com. The win probability was 50/50 and Dallas actually had a better “shot quality score” than Golden State, which is ShotQuality.com’s proprietary stat.

If the Mavs hit some of their 3-pointers, Game 1 looks a lot different. A few more Dallas 3’s would cause Golden State’s defense to close out harder on shooters and open up driving lanes for the Mavs’ ball-handlers.

The Warriors obviously have edges over the Mavs in coaching, continuity, big-game experience and depth.

Again, Dallas’ spread is my preferred wager, but there’s some value in MAVERICKS (+220).

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Against the spread

BET MAVERICKS +6.5 (-112) heavier than or instead of their ML based on the previous analysis. There’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” situation in the betting market and Dallas bounces back well from losses.

According to Tipico Sportsbook, 60% of the action is on the Warriors -6.5 (-108), but more than 85% of the money is on the Mavs. Typically, it’s wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public since professional bettors put up more dough than your average Joe.

Dallas is 26-9 ATS following a loss with a plus-6.6 ATS margin and Mavs coach Jason Kidd has proven thus far in these playoffs that he can make in-series, and in-game, adjustments.

Dallas was in a tough spot for Game 1 playing just two days after beating the No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns in Game 7 of their Western Conference semifinals series.

Another reason to back Dallas: We saw the Boston Celtics rally back from a loss to smash the Miami Heat in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

DALLAS +6.5 (-112) is my favorite wager in this game.

Over/Under

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 213.5 (-107).

It’s the cheaper side of the total and a vast majority of the market is betting the Over 213.5 (-115). But I don’t have a strong grasp on the total, so let’s stick with Dallas’s spread.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Additional NBA sports coverage:
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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Boston Celtics at Miami Heat Game 2 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Boston Celtics at Miami Heat Game 2 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 1 seed Miami Heat (1-0) host the No. 2 seed Boston Celtics (0-1) Thursday for Game 2 of their Eastern Conference Finals with the tip-off scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Celtics vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Miami won and covered Game 1, 118-107, despite an 8-point first-half deficit because the Heat outscored the Celtics by 25 points (39-14) in the third quarter. The Heat outperformed the Celtics in all “four factors” even though Boston won three of the four quarters.

Miami SF Jimmy Butler scorched Boston for 41 points on 63.2% shooting with 9 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 steals and 3 blocks.

The Celtics were missing two starters for Game 1. PG Marcus Smart who was sidelined by a foot injury and C Al Horford who entered the NBA’s health and safety protocols.

Celtics at Heat odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:05 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Celtics +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Heat -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Against the spread: Celtics +3.5 (-110) | Heat -3.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 207.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Celtics at Heat key injuries

Celtics

  • C Al Horford (health and safety protocols) doubtful
  • PG Marcus Smart (foot) probable

Heat

  • PG Kyle Lowry (hamstring) out
  • SG Max Strus (hamstring) questionable
  • PG Gabe Vincent (hamstring) questionable

[tipico]

Celtics at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 109, Celtics 102

Money line

PASS with a heavy “lean” towards the Heat (-170) because Miami should win by margin but this ML is a little out of my price range.

The bottom line is the loss of Horford would hurt the Celtics more than the return of Smart helps them because Butler feasted on Boston’s small interior defense with Horford missing.

Butler attacked the basket Tuesday, attempting just two 3-pointers compared to 19 2-pointers and hitting 17-of-18 free throws.

Horford has Boston’s second-best adjusted on/off net rating in these playoffs (plus-14.8) according to CleaningTheGlass.com, whereas the Celtics are scoring 3.1 fewer points per 100 possessions when Smart is on the floor.

Money is coming in on Boston and I’d opt for Miami’s ML if it lowers to -150 or below but, for now, PASS.

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Against the spread

BET the HEAT -3.5 (-110) because Butler can be aggressive again with Horford most likely missing Thursday. If Butler bullies the Celtics again in Game 2, that should collapse Boston’s perimeter defense and get wide-open looks for Miami’s elite 3-point shooters.

Celtics All-Star wings Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown also make it easy for the Heat to defend them since they take far too many long, contested 2-pointers.

Miami PF Bam Adebayo was a Defensive Player of the Year finalist, SF P.J. Tucker won a title last season as the Milwaukee Bucks’ primary wing defender and Butler made his bones in the NBA based on his defense.

This is a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario in the betting market according to VegasInsider.com. Roughly 60% of the bets are on the Celtics but nearly two-thirds of the cash is on the Heat.

Since professional bettors put up more dough than your average Joe, the money column of the betting splits is considered the sharper side of the market.

BET the HEAT -3.5 (-110).

Over/Under

Slight LEAN OVER 207.5 (-107) only because both teams have great defenses and the total is suspiciously low considering Game 1 soared Over by 21.5 points.

However, both teams attempted at least 30 3-pointers and 32 free throws in Game 1 and if those rates continue in Game 2 then the OVER 207.5 (-107) will cash regardless of the pace.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional NBA sports coverage:
HoopsHype | Celtics Wire | LeBron Wire | Lonzo Wire | Nets Wire | Rockets Wire | Sixers Wire | Thunder Wire | Warriors Wire | Rookie Wire | List Wire

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors Game 1 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors Game 1 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks head to Chase Center Monday for Game 1 of their Western Conference finals series with the No. 3 seed Golden State Warriors at 9 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Dallas upset the No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns with a humiliating 123-90 Game 7 whooping Sunday in the Western Conference semifinal round.

Mavs All-Star PG Luka Doncic has taken his game to another level this postseason, averaging the 2nd-most points per game (31.5) and has the 3rd-best PER (30.1) in the playoffs.

Golden State beat the No. 2 seed Memphis Grizzlies 4-2 to advance to the conference finals.

The Warriors got a vintage Game 6 performance from SG Klay Thompson to close out the series who scored 30 points on 50.0% shooting (8-for-14 from behind the arc).

The Mavs beat the Warriors 3-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) this season and the total was 2-2 Over/Under (O/U) in those meetings.

Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA conference finals Game 1s

Mavericks at Warriors odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:41 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Mavericks +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Warriors -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
  • Against the spread: Mavericks +5.5 (-112) | Warriors -5.5 (-108)
  • Over/Under: 213.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Mavericks at Warriors key injuries

Mavericks

  • None

Warriors

  • SG Gary Payton II (elbow) out

[tipico]

Mavericks at Warriors picks and predictions

Prediction

Mavericks 108, Warriors 103

Money line

SPRINKLE on the MAVERICKS (+180) because their true price should be closer to +150 in Game 1, Dallas’s spread is a sharp play, Luka is the best player in this series and Doncic balls out vs. the Warriors.

In 9 career head-to-head meetings with Warriors’ former 2-time MVP Steph Curry, Luka and the Mavs are 5-4 SU and Doncic is putting up 31.0 points on 49.2% shooting (44.3% 3-point shooting), 7.1 rebounds and 6.3 assists. Luka outperforms Curry in all these stats in those meetings.

Payton’s absence is also a factor in this series. Payton is Golden State’s best perimeter defender and Dallas’s isolation offense featuring its 3-guard lineup should light up the Warriors’ backcourt.

The Mavs have played the highest frequency of isolation offense thus far in the playoffs and the Warriors have the 3rd-worst defensive efficiency vs. isolation offense and the two worse teams against iso-offense have been eliminated.

Luka’s numbers are a given but, if Mavs guards Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie are able to “get theirs”, the Warriors are losing this series.

Dallas has a massive strength-on-weakness edge over Golden State in the ball-security department.

The Mavs were 7th in offensive turnover rate (TOV%) during the regular season and 2nd in points off of turnovers allowed per game. While the Warriors had the second-worst in TOV% in the NBA and were 21st in points off of turnovers allowed per game.

We saw Golden State’s ball-security issues surface in their previous series and, if that continues vs. Dallas, then Luka and the Mavs will dictate the pace in these games.

Again, the play is to hit Dallas’s spread harder and too only SPRINKLE on the MAVERICKS (+180) if at all.

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Against the spread

Definitely BET the MAVERICKS +5.5 (-112) instead of or heavier than their ML based on the previous analysis and because there’s a line freeze in the betting market.

According to Pregame.com, 70% of the money and 64% of the bets are on the Warriors but the line hasn’t budged and Golden State suspiciously has a cheaper price.

Dallas is also 6-1 ATS in the last 7 visits to Golden State and 33-18 ATS vs. teams with a winning record.

The MAVERICKS +5.5 (-112) is my favorite bet in this game.

Over/Under

Slight LEAN to the UNDER 213.5 (-108) because the presumed sharp side of the market is betting the Under whereas the public is betting the Over.

More money is on the Under (per Pregame.com) but more bets have been placed on the Over and the cash column is typically considered the sharper side since professional bettors wager more money than your average Joe.

However, Dallas has an absurdly-high 3-point attempt rate during these playoffs and Golden State has the two greatest 3-point shooters ever.

The UNDER 213.5 (-108) is probably the right side but I don’t love it.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional NBA sports coverage:
HoopsHype | Celtics Wire | LeBron Wire | Lonzo Wire | Nets Wire | Rockets Wire | Sixers Wire | Thunder Wire | Warriors Wire | Rookie Wire | List Wire

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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