Tag: Cardinals Pirates odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Pittsburgh Pirates (47-81) host the St. Louis Cardinals (64-62) Friday for the second game of their four-game series at PNC Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Pittsburgh rallied back from a 4-run deficit with an 8-run 7th-inning outburst to win the series opener Thursday 11-7. Pirates batters four through six (1B Colin Moran, 3B Wilmer Difo and RF Gregory Polanco) combined to hit 10-for-15 with a home run, 2 doubles and 6 RBIs.

Season series: Cardinals lead 10-6.

LHP J.A. Happ is St. Louis’s projected starter. Happ is 7-6 with a 5.88 ERA (121 IP, 79 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 23 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 8 K in St. Louis’s 5-4 loss Saturday against Pittsburgh.
  • Happ is 2-0 against Pittsburgh this season with a 1.40 ERA (19 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 8 H, 5 BB and 16 K in three starts.
  • vs. the Pirates on the current roster (62 PA): 4.32 FIP with a .190 batting average (BA), .272 wOBA, .391 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 27.4 K% and 89.8 mph exit velocity (EV).

LHP Dillon Peters makes his third start for the Pirates. Peters is 0-1 with a 1.86 ERA (9 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 8 H, 4 BB and 6 K across two starts.

  • .Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 3 K in Pittsburgh’s 5-4 win Saturday at St. Louis.
  • vs. Cardinals on the current roster (22 PA): 5.75 FIP with a .200 BA, .290 wOBA, .580 xSLG, 13.6 K% and 88.3 mph EV.

Cardinals at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:55 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Pirates +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (+100) | Pirates +1.5 (-125)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Cardinals 7, Pirates 3

Money line (ML)

Happ is a starter I typically like to fade but he’s been very good since joining the Cardinals at the trade deadline. Happ is 2-0 with a 1.99 ERA (22 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in four starts since arriving in St. Louis.

Pittsburgh’s lineup has the second-worst wRC+ and wOBA against left-handed pitching and fifth-worst hard-hit rate. St. Louis’s lineup ranks 13th in wRC+ but has the sixth-best hard-hit rate vs. lefties.

The Cardinals are 6-1 overall as road favorites of -130 or more with a plus-43.5% return on investment (ROI) and an average score of 6.1-3.0. On the flip side, the Pirates are 3-9 overall as home underdogs of +120 or greater with a minus-29.0% ROI and an average score of 6.0-4.2.

GIMME the CARDINALS (-160).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because St. Louis’s bullpen is not dependable enough to lay it with the Cardinals -1.5 (+100). For instance, St. Louis’s bullpen has the worst SIERA and K-BB% in the majors and the second-worst xFIP.

Also, the Cardinals are just 22-28 ATS against divisional foes and the Pirates are 29-27 ATS as a home underdog.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-125) for a tiny wager – if at all – because I much prefer betting St. Louis’s money line instead of the total. However, both ball clubs have played more to the Over in division games and Happ’s teams are 13-8-2 O/U in his starts.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The  St. Louis Cardinals (64-61) are still holding on to slim playoff hopes as they begin a four-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates (46-81) Thursday. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET at PNC Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cardinals RHP Miles Mikolas (0-1, 1.00 ERA) makes his third start. He has allowed 5 H and 3 BB with 8 K through 9 IP.

  • Mikolas squared off against Keller and the Pirates last week in his first big-league start in three months. He surrendered 2 unearned runs in 5 innings while allowing 2 hits and recording 5 punch-outs.
  • He has recorded a 3.82 ERA and 7.9 K/9 with just 2 HR allowed in six career games at PNC Park.

Pirates RHP Mitch Keller (4-10, 6.35 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.82 WHIP, 4.7 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through 66 2/3 IP.

  • Keller had been struggling heading into his last start but held the Cardinals scoreless across 5 IP while recording 6 K.
  • He has a 7.82 ERA over 38 IP at home this season. While a .424 BABIP has worked against him he hasn’t done himself any favors with a 5.4 BB/9.

Cardinals at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:07 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals -170 (bet $170 to win $100) | Pirates +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals -1.5 (+100) | Pirates +1.5 (-125)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Prediction

Cardinals 5, Pirates 4

Money line (ML)

Keller had one of his best starts of the year against the Cardinals last time out but he has been very inconsistent throughout the season with more bad starts than good ones.

Mikolas’ velocity was way down in his first start of the season in May and it was encouraging to see it back up to typical levels in his most recent outing. However, we’ll need to see more in order to be fully confident in his skills and this is a pretty hefty price to pay on the road.

PASS on the money line.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Walks have been a major issue for Keller this season but he has been better lately in issuing no more than 1 free pass in three of his last four starts. He can’t be counted on to spin another gem as he did in his last start against St. Louis but the Pirates should at least keep this one close.

Side with the PIRATES +1.5 (-125)

Over/Under (O/U)

Neither offense has been performing at a high level lately. The under is 4-0-1 in the last five games for the Cardinals and 8-1-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 11 contests.

That being said, Mikolas is tough to fully trust after such a long layoff and Keller has had his fair share of blowups this season. A repeat of last week’s pitchers duel between these two seems unlikely and this total is just a little too low.

A small play on OVER 8.5 (-122) is the way to go.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (56-56) and Pittsburgh Pirates (41-72) meet Wednesday for the middle game of a three-game NL Central series at PNC Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Adam Wainwright is the projected starting pitcher for the Cardinals. He is 10-6 with a 3.48 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 139 2/3 IP over 22 starts.

  • Current Pittsburgh bats own an aggregate .665 OPS and .108 isolated power against him.
  • Has a 2.67 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in his last four road starts, which includes facing the hard-hitting San Francisco Giants and Atlanta Braves and one start at Coors Field.

RHP Wil Crowe is the projected starter for the Pirates. In 17 games (16 starts) this season, Crowe is 3-6 with a 5.47 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 in 75 2/3 IP.

  • Coughed up 3 HR among 8 hits and 7 runs (3 earned) in 4 IP Thursday at the Cincinnati Reds in his last start.
  • Faced St. Louis twice this season, allowing 7 ER in 10 IP.
  • Current Cardinals bats own an aggregate 1.031 OPS against him.

Cardinals at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:04 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals -180 (bet $180 to win $100) | Pirates +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals -1.5 (-107) | Pirates +1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Cardinals 5, Pirates 4

Money line (ML)

St. Louis won 4-1 Tuesday. A Redbirds pitching staff (LHP J.A. Happ and three relievers), which had a 4.76 ERA over its previous 14 games, held the Pirates to just one base hit in the win.

It was the Bucs’ sixth consecutive loss. They have scored just 2.00 runs per game on a .585 OPS during the skid.

With the Pittsburgh bullpen struggling in the second half and with a St. Louis ‘pen that should be struggling of late (the Cardinals have benefited from a .245 batting average on balls in play in the second half), the Pirates look to be on the value side here. However, look to the run line to maximize that value.

PASS.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Pittsburgh batters have faced a tough slate of pitchers in recording a .668 OPS. That’s not to say the Pirates are a .700-OPS-type club, but they feature an offense capable of more.

TAKE PITTSBURGH +1.5 (-115).

Over/Under (O/U)

Both clubs have some situational bad-luck tilt to their offensive numbers. St. Louis owns a .276 BABIP when leading off innings and Pittsburgh owns a .268 BABIP with runners in scoring position.

The Cards and Pirates fit as teams sort of “waiting to be selected in Overs” when other conditions are ripe. Add in a hot, humid, wind-out night in Pittsburgh and BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-130) in this one.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (14-12) tangle with NL Central rival Pittsburgh Pirates (12-13) Saturday in Game 2 of their three-game series at PNC Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

St. Louis handled Pittsburgh in the series opener 7-3 yesterday for a fourth straight victory over the Pirates dating back to last season.

Season series: Cardinals 1-0.

RHP Jack Flaherty is making his fifth start for the Cardinals. Flaherty is 4-0 with a 3.18 ERA (28 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 this season.

  • Last outing: Win in 7 IP with 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 6 K’s in St. Louis’s 5-2 victory over the Cincinnati Reds Sunday.
  • Career vs. the Pirates: 6-0 with a 1.89 ERA (57 IP, 12 ER), 0.90 WHIP and 9.2 K/9 in 9 starts.

RHP Trevor Cahill is the projected starter for the Pirates. Cahill is 1-2 with a 7.11 ERA (19 IP, 15 ER), 1.42 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 across 4 starts in his first season with the Pirates.

  • Last outing: Win in 6 IP with 1 ER, 2 H, 2 BB’s and 2 K’s in Pittsburgh’s 6-2 win at the Minnesota Twins last Saturday.
  • Career vs. the Cardinals: 1-3 with a 4.02 ERA (40 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.44 WHIP and 7.1 K/9 in 4 starts and 2 relief appearances.

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Cardinals at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:40 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Pirates +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals -1.5 (+120) | Pirates +1.5 (-145)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Prediction

Pirates 5, Cardinals 4

Money line (ML)

These money line prices feel sketchy. The Cardinals (-145) has their undefeated Ace on the mound against a Pirates (+120) team that has been one of the laughingstocks in MLB.

Flaherty has never lost to Pittsburgh, is off to a phenomenal start this season and St. Louis is 21-9 against the Pirates since 2019.

However, Flaherty’s advanced pitching numbers suggest he’s going to come back down to Earth a bit. His exit velocity, hard-hit rate, fly ball rate and ground ball to fly ball rate are all worse than the MLB average.

Also, opposing hitters have a .225 BAbip vs. Flaherty, 72 percentage points higher than the league average.

Furthermore, Statcast grades Flaherty out in the 19th percentile in chase%, 37th percentile in whiff% and 39th percentile in expected wOBA.

Lastly, the Cardinals’ lineup is terrible against right-handed pitching; St. Louis hitters have the fifth-lowest wRC+, is 23rd in wOBA and the fourth-lowest hard-hit rate against righties.

Slight “LEAN” to the PIRATES (+120) for a quarter unit if at all because Pittsburgh’s run line is much better value.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the PIRATES +1.5 (-145) for a half unit at the current price point, but I’d wait until closer to the first pitch before placing my bet on this game because I think the Pittsburgh price gets cheaper throughout the day.

The Cardinals definitely have the edge in the starting pitcher matchup but, the Pirates’ bullpen is top-6 in K-BB%, WHIP, xFIP and SIERA, so Pittsburgh could cut into any lead Flaherty turns over to the St. Louis ‘pen.

Over/Under (O/U)

I’ve already outlined why Flaherty is due for a bad outing, but, also Cahill is the least productive when pitching on six or more days rest.

Cahill’s ERA and WHIP are higher than any other rest split and his winning percentage is the lowest (8-17 overall record) compared to other rest splits.

“LEAN” to the OVER 7.5 (+100) for a quarter unit only because I prefer the Pittsburgh side more than the total.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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