Examining surprises and disappointments through eight weeks.
Believe it or not — and ready or not — we’ve already crossed into the second half of the fantasy regular season.
It’s been an eventful journey so far to be certain, and there have been the usual surprises, disappointments, and revealing statistics compiled through eight weeks of action to date. So let’s take a moment to take stock in how fantasy 2021 has played out by highlighting three surprise players, three disappointing players and a second-half player to watch for each of the four main fantasy positions.
To be considered for the surprising and disappointing lists, players must have played in a minimum of four games, so that automatically weeds out many of the one- or two-week wonders and the unfortunate players who have already been bitten hard by the injury bug.
And, as a general rule, we’re training most of our focus on the top-25-ranked players (average fantasy points per game) and the top 25 players selected, on average, at the four positions in re-draft leagues.
Fantasy point totals, as usual, are all point-per-reception scoring.
That established, here goes, starting with …
QUARTERBACK
Surprises
- Tom Brady — Sure, we heard about how Brady was more in tune with the offense after full offseason, etc., but few, if any, expected him to be leading the position with an average of 30.3 fantasy points per outing through eight games. It’s been a highly effective mix of volume and efficiency for Brady, who leads the league in attempts (343), completions (231), yards (2,650) and touchdown passes (25), total QB TDs (26) with a 108.6 passer rating (fifth) and a 69.5 QBR (second). And all at age 44, still with no signs of decline.
- Matthew Stafford — The L.A. marriage with Rams coach Sean McVay has been even better than expected as Stafford has thrown for at least 365 yards or multiple TDs in seven of eight games and trails only Brady in passing yards (2,477) and TD tosses (22). He’s averaging a career-best 9.1 yards per attempt and has formed an elite, league-leading bond with wide receiver Cooper Kupp, who has caught 63-of-90 targets for 924 yards and 10 TDs to easily rank as fantasy’s No. 1 wideout.
- Derek Carr — This Silver & Black veteran was the 21st quarterback to come off the board, on average, in drafts this summer, but he currently ranks 11th with an average of 23.5 fantasy points per game. Carr trails only Brady with an average of 324.1 passing yards per game while averaging a career-best 8.5 yards per attempt. If he can pick up his passing TD pace (12 in seven games so far), he’ll challenge for a mid-level QB1 finish.
Disappointments
- Aaron Rodgers –– Rodgers and the Pack are doing just fine — tied for the league’s best record at 7-1 — but there has been some definite (and expected) fantasy regression as Rodgers’ numbers are down across the board from his MVP season of 2020. Most notably his TD-passes-per-game average (2.1 from 3.0) and yards-per-attempt average (6.6 from his league-leading 9.1) have fallen off. As a result, he’s more of a QB2 (14th with 22.4 fantasy points per game) and not the QB1 he was drafted to be (ADP of 5th at the position) this summer.
- Ryan Tannehill –– The Titans’ starter is another ADP QB1 who ranks in QB2 territory (15th among QBs who have played at least four games with 21.8 fantasy points per outing) as he’s thrown one or fewer TD passes in six of his eight games. Tannehill’s volume certainly should increase with the brutal Derrick Henry injury news that dropped Monday, but at the same time his efficiency very well could take a dip with opposing defenses’ no longer having to worry about the league’s best running back.
- Justin Fields –– There were certainly high fantasy hopes for the Bears’ prized rookie, who was drafted 19th among quarterbacks this summer, but he’s only averaged 14.2 fantasy points in his six starts — and that includes Sunday’s season-best 29.1-point outing against the 49ers. Fields is only averaging 153.5 passing yards per start with a 3:6 TD pass-to-interception ratio during that span, but an encouraging sign came Sunday with his season-high 10 rushes for 103 yards and a TD, helping power his first 20-fantasy-point-plus day.
Second half QB to watch: Joe Burrow
The second-year Cincy QB is currently 10th at the position with an average of 24.4 fantasy points and he’s thrown for two more TD passes in all eight of his games. However, that average has jumped to 28.4 over the last three weeks with a trio of scoring tosses in every outing. His young cast of weapons is on the upswing as well, so don’t be surprised if Burrow winds up finishing as an upper-echelon QB1 when all is said and done this season.
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RUNNING BACK
Surprises
- Cordarrelle Patterson — Undrafted in the summer, this well-traveled, ninth-year veteran shockingly ranks seventh among running backs with an average of 19.2 fantasy points per game. He’s played only 46 percent of the Falcons’ offensive snaps and ranks 26th in the league with 96 total touches — an average of 13.7 per game — but they’ve most certainly been high-efficiency touches as he ranks third at the position with an average of 6.3 yards per touch, is second among RBs with 333 receiving yards (on 32 catches) and is tied for seventh overall with seven total TDs. If anything, peg Patterson for a few more touches going forward with WR Calvin Ridley’s announcement Sunday that he’s taking an indefinite mental-health break.
- D’Andre Swift — So with the likes of Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones and David Montgomery also residing in the division, who had this second-year player for the winless Lions as the highest-ranking NFC North running back (eighth with 18.4 fantasy points per game) eight weeks into the season? Yet, here we are with Swift, who has been a PPR stud, leading all backs with 57 targets, 47 receptions and 415 receiving yards to account for 68.2 percent of his 147.4 total fantasy points.
- Elijah Mitchell — As detailed a couple weeks ago in our fantasy rookie review, this 49ers sixth-round draft pick and owner of a preseason ADP of 81 among RBs has been a revelation, ranking 21st at the position so far with an average of 13.7 fantasy points per outing. Kyle Shanahan’s Niners have been known for their RB playing time volatility, but in the five games (out of the team’s seven) that Mitchell has been healthy, he’s handled 70.8 percent of the team’s running back touches.
Disappointments
- Saquon Barkley — After missing most of 2020 with a knee injury, Barkley did start the season with games of 3.7 and 8.9 fantasy points but was just rounding into form with back-to-back 21-plus-point fantasy games in Weeks 3 and 4 before injury struck again early in Week 5. It was initially classified a low-grade ankle sprain, but Barkley hasn’t practiced or played in the three weeks since, and with the team slated for Week 10 bye, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the wait for Barkley’s return extended to Week 11.
- Antonio Gibson — This Washington back was the 12th running back off the board on average in fantasy drafts this preseason as a big leap was anticipated in Year 2. But it hasn’t come to fruition so far as Gibson ranks 28th at the position with an average of 12.4 fantasy points. He’s been dealing with a shin stress fracture for a month now, but despite still practicing and starting as if all is OK, his recent numbers are saying otherwise. Gibson has now had three straight games with 8.4 fantasy points or fewer, including Sunday’s loss in Denver when he hit season lows in touches (11) and offensive snap share (33 percent) while sharing the backfield duties with J.D. McKissic and rookie Jaret Patterson.
- Miles Sanders — With an ADP of RB18, Sanders wasn’t drafted as high as Gibson, but he ranks far lower at 43rd with an average of 8.7 fantasy points per outing. He had only one game of at least 10.2 points before injuring his ankle early in Week 7 and landing on injured reserve. One of the primary issues has been simple a decline in usage (11.7 touches per game) after averaging 14.3 and 16, respectively, over the previous two seasons.
Second half RB to watch: Christian McCaffrey
McCaffrey could come off IR and end a five-game absence as early as this coming Sunday in Week 9, but will we see the same old Run CMC step right back in to his usual monster workload? In his only two full games before injuring a hamstring in Week 3, McCaffrey totaled 59 touches and averaged 26.2 fantasy points. The Panthers have gone 1-4 since after that 3-0 start with rookie Chuba Hubbard averaging 20.4 touches and 13.3 fantasy points per outing during that five-game span. Seeing the missed games piling up, it’s very likely that McCaffrey will see a reduced workload with Hubbard spelling him more frequently going forward. But that could prove to be a boon down the stretch for McCaffrey’s fantasy teams if it helps keep him on the field and off the IR list.
WIDE RECEIVER
Surprises
- Cooper Kupp — As aforementioned, he’s fantasy’s No. 1 wideout with 214.9 total points (26.9 per game), which is 27.8 more fantasy points than any other non-quarterback in the league and has posted at least 23.8 points in six of eight games. And through those eight contests, Kupp has already surpassed his season-long fantasy points totals in three of his previous four years. He is pacing the league in targets (90), receiving yards (924) and receiving scores (10) while ranking second with 63 receptions. Not bad at all for a player drafted to be a low-end WR2.
- Deebo Samuel — Right behind Kupp and second-place Tyreek Hill (25.7 fantasy points per game) is this 49ers third-year wideout who’s averaging 22.6 fantasy points and has already established a new career season high with 819 receiving yards in only seven games. Samuel has an impressive 34 percent team target share and has accounted for a whopping 46 percent of San Francisco’s receiving yards so far. Just two months ago, Samuel was the 36th wideout being selected in fantasy drafts, on average.
- Ja’Marr Chase — Running only behind the Stafford-Kupp connection is the Burrow-Chase duo, which has accounted for 38 completions for 786 yards (a league-leading 20.7 yards per catch) and seven TDs. If you were able to snag him in the middle rounds as the 23rd wide receiver off the board in late August, give weekly thanks to Chase’s preseason drop issues, which knocked the LSU rookie down a few rounds.
Disappointments
- Allen Robinson — This Bears veteran had an ADP of 12 among wide receivers but somehow currently finds himself as WR75 with an average of 7.4 fantasy points per contest. He only has 44 targets, 26 receptions, 271 yards and one TD through eight games, which puts him on track for 55 catches and 576 yards — 17-game numbers that would barely exceed his 10-game rookie totals (48 for 548) from 2014 with the Jaguars. Truly a disappointment among disappointments.
- Brandon Aiyuk — While his teammate Samuel has soared, this second-year Niners wide receiver has floundered in the team doghouse with all of 23 targets and 13 receptions for 141 yards and one TD through seven games. That ranks him 106th with a 4.9 point-per-game average — brutal numbers for the wideout with a positional ADP of 24, just one spot behind Chase.
- Stefon Diggs — Diggs, of course, enjoyed a career year a season ago, leading the league in targets (166), receptions (127) and receiving yards (1,535) while totaling 328.6 fantasy points — third at the position. And that precisely was his WR ADP this summer. However, he currently can be found 19th among wideouts with an average of 15.8 fantasy points per contest. Even with the extra game this season, Diggs is on pace for 158 targets, 102 catches and, most significantly, 1,222 yards — all short of his 16-game totals from 2020 — as QB Josh Allen’s target tree looks to have sprouted a few more branches this season.
Second-half WR to watch: A.J. Brown
The Titans’ Brown got off to a brutally slow, injury-addled start, totaling all of 23.3 fantasy points over Tennessee’s first five games. But over the last three contests, Brown has compiled 74.9 points, looking much more like the top-15 fantasy wideout he was a season ago and the wide receiver drafted ninth overall, on average, at the position last summer. With Henry expected to miss the rest of the season, and fellow wideout Julio Jones battling nagging hamstring injuries on the downside of his brilliant career, Brown is now the unquestioned No. 1 playmaker and offensive option in the Music City.
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TIGHT END
Surprises
- Dawson Knox — One reason why Diggs is seeing fewer targets this season is the emergence of pass-catchers such as Knox, who in six games has reeled in 21-of-27 targets for 286 yards and a tight end-leading five TDs — numbers, which are approaching or exceeding his full-season totals from his previous two years. Knox should be back soon from the hand injury he suffered in Week 6 and currently owns the fifth-highest fantasy scoring average (13.3 points) at the position after owning the 28th highest tight end ADP this summer.
- Dalton Schultz — The Cowboys’ Schultz ranks a couple of rungs lower (seventh) than Knox with a 12.6-fantasy-point average. Schultz largely went undrafted as the TE35 this offseason — nine spots lower than Dallas TE teammate Blake Jarwin — and has capitalized on the defensive focus paid to the Cowboys’ ground game and talented wide receivers with 33 receptions for 370 yards and three TDs on 44 targets.
- C.J. Uzomah — In his previous six seasons, the Bengals’ Uzomah had a combined eight scoring receptions, but so far this season, he’s matching Knox with a position-high five TD grabs. And he’s done so on only 23 targets and 21 receptions. Uzomah, though, is also averaging 13.8 yards per catch — fifth among tight ends — so there’s more to his game than just a high TD rate.
Disappointments
- George Kittle — The Niners’ tight end missed half of the season a year ago due to injury, and here he is again having played in only four of San Francisco’s seven games due to a calf issue that currently has him on injured reserve. In the four contests in which he has played, the production has been mediocre with 19 catches for 227 yards and no TDs on 28 targets — certainly so far not worth the TE3 ADP pricetag most paid in drafts.
- Jonnu Smith — Smith appeared on more than a few tight end sleeper lists this summer with his move over the Patriots, but he’s averaging only 5.8 fantasy points so far through eight games and that ranks way down at 30th at the position. Fellow New England offseason TE addition Hunter Henry has been significantly better with four TD catches to Smith’s one while averaging 9.8 fantasy points per outing.
- Tyler Higbee — With Stafford’s arrival and the departure of fellow tight end Gerald Everett, many had sleeper tight end draft designs on Higbee, who wound up with a positional ADP of 12. But aside from two double-digit fantasy-point outings in the first three weeks, it hasn’t exactly gone according to plan with Higbee currently ranking 18th at the position with an average of 8.7 fantasy points per outing.
Second-half TE to watch: Pat Freiermuth
The Steelers’ rookie ranks only 22nd among tight ends with a 7.7 fantasy-point average, but his two best outings (12.8 and 14.4 points) have come in the Steelers’ two most recent games as they’ve looked for ways to replace injured-and-out-for-the-season wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster. Freiermuth has been targeted seven times in each of those games, catching 11 of those 14 for 102 yards and TD. That kind of volume and productivity is top-five worthy at a position of continued fantasy scarcity, so the rookie is definitely worth swooping up off the waiver wire if the rest of your league has been slow to notice.
