Too many Mickey Loomis gambles have come back to burn the Saints. The Saints GM has wasted a lot of valuable draft picks on players who haven’t helped the team:
There aren’t many general managers around the NFL with job security like Mickey Loomis, and it’s easy to see why. The franchise’s valuation has skyrocketed under his watch. Hired to the post way back in 2003, he helped raise the New Orleans Saints’ valuation from the $70 million that Tom Benson paid to buy the team in 1985 (which would be about $92 million today, due to inflation) to the $4 billion figure boasted around today. Loomis will be on staff as long as he wants to be, and he’s currently the longest-tenured general manager in the league.
But too many of his recent gambles have come back to burn the team. Not just the bad decision to promote Dennis Allen to head coach over better-qualified candidates like Doug Pederson, this week’s opponent with the Jacksonville Jaguars — but in the draft, too. There isn’t a more important even for acquiring young talent and sustaining long-term success than the annual NFL draft, and Loomis has played too fast and loose with the team’s draft picks.
Here’s what it’s cost them to add first-round players who aren’t helping the team like left tackle Trevor Penning (benched), defensive end Payton Turner (on injured reserve for the second time in three years), and defensive end Marcus Davenport (who left the team in free agency after an injury-plagued five-year career):
Looking back on the worst New Orleans Saints draft pick from each year since 2002, from Johnathan Sullivan to Marcus Davenport:
The NFL draft always carries an element of risk, and the New Orleans Saints have burned themselves at times by flying too close to the sun. Trading up and investing too many resources in players who weren’t up to the task has cost them. With the 2023 draft just days away, it’s worth looking back on their draft history under Mickey Loomis (who was promoted to general manager way back in 2002) as a bit of a cautionary tale.
There’s a sliding scale for deciding what separates a good pick from a bad one — or at least different degrees of success. A seventh-round pick is just happy to make the team. A first-round pick should be competing for Pro Bowl consideration. And there’s a wide span of outcomes in-between.
Still, there’s a convincing case to be made for saying every player on this list didn’t meet expectations:
Brent Sobleski thinks the Jaguars overpaid for Robinson, who is due $13.8 million from the franchise tag.
Jacksonville had a big decision to make at the left tackle position this offseason. With starter Cam Robinson’s rookie contract expiring and because of his inconsistent play (as well as injury issues), many fans hoped for an upgrade at left tackle during free agency.
But no move materialized, and with first overall pick Trevor Lawrence’s blindside in need of protection, the Jaguars decided to bring back Robinson on the franchise tag. He’s due $13.8 million this season, and unless he plays at a very high level, it could be his final season in Jacksonville.
Though he’s set to be the biggest cap hit on the team this season, expectations aren’t exactly high for him. He was tagged mostly out of necessity, and it shouldn’t be that much of a surprise that Bleacher Report’s Brent Sobleski lists him as the most likely bust for the Jags in 2021.
Certain expectations are placed on those who receive the franchise tag from their respective teams.
Cam Robinson’s situation is quite different. The Jacksonville Jaguars decided to pay their left tackle $13.8 million this season because they didn’t see the value in anyone else on the market.
Basically, the organization looked at the free-agent pool and decided it couldn’t get anyone better than its current serviceable left tackle.
The rationale is terrible. Sure, Robinson is only 25 years old. But he hasn’t been particularly good during his career. The organization could have spent far less on a comparable talent like Russell Okung, Alejandro Villanueva or Charles Leno Jr. The draft was still an option at the time as well.
Instead, the Jaguars decided to overpay a marginal performer. Robinson will be forced to improve his level of play or be continually chastised.
Jacksonville may have overpaid for Robinson, but it’s no guarantee that any of the aging options Sobleski listed would have been better. Still, it’s hard to imagine that even a solid season from Robinson would justify the tag amount he’ll be playing under.
The Jaguars need him to play at a high level to aid in the development of quarterback Trevor Lawrence, but the tackle spots remain the weakest points on an overall above-average offensive line.
Highlighting five fantasy baseball bust candidates who should be avoided at their average draft position (ADP).
We recently looked at the top fantasy baseball sleepers for the 2020 MLB season and now focus on five fantasy baseball bust candidates you’ll need to avoid during your fantasy baseball draft, at least at their current average draft position (ADP) cost.
The term “bust” isn’t always meant for players who’ll have downright awful seasons. Here, it refers to players who won’t meet your fantasy baseball expectations based on where they’re being drafted and who they’re being drafted above.
(Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff – USA TODAY Sports)
Soler broke out in 2019 to more than double in his career total in homers with 48 while playing all 162 games. He hit just nine homers in 61 games with the Royals in 2018.
He has a career batting average of .255, though he has .265 each of the last two seasons, and his 26.2% strikeout rate last season was worse than all but 16 other qualified hitters. He has next to no speed to offer, and he has little protection while hitting in the middle of a rebuilding Royals club.
DJ LeMahieu, INF, New York Yankees
(Photo Credit: Troy Taormina – USA TODAY Sports)
LeMahieu, at age 31, hit more home runs in his first season with the Yankees than in he did in any of six full seasons with the Colorado Rockies. In fact, his 26 home runs last season were more than he hit in total in 2017 and 2018. This despite a move to Yankee Stadium from Coors Field.
The veteran infield also noticed a spike in his batting average and on-base percentage, despite a pedestrian 7.0% walk rate. He hasn’t been able to steal double-digit bases since 2016, and he’s one of several Yankees hitters who can be expected to see a dip in the runs and RBI totals this year after a record-setting 2019 for the team.
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Mallex Smith, OF, Seattle Mariners
(Photo Credit: David Banks – USA TODAY Sports)
Smith led baseball with 46 stolen bases last season, and he was thrown out just nine times. His .227 batting average was worse than anyone else with at least 12 SBs and he struck out in 24.9% of plate appearances with just a 7.4% walk rate. He has just 13 career home runs in 428 games and is purely a one-category player.
Josh Bell, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates
(Photo Credit: Cody Glenn – USA TODAY Sports)
Similarly to Soler, Bell enjoyed a career-best power surge last season. He has the better-rounded game, but as the only hitter to fear in a soft Pirates lineup, he’s unlikely to see enough pitches to hit, and there’ll be no one to drive him home once he walks.
He ranked ninth in baseball in RBI last season, but he’ll have fewer men on base in 2020, as well.
Josh Hader, RP, Milwaukee Brewers
(Photo Credit: Geoff Burke – USA TODAY Sports)
Hader is this year’s prime example of relievers being overvalued in fantasy baseball. He ranked third in baseball in saves last season while pitching to a 2.62 ERA. He ranked first with 16.41 strikeouts per nine innings and his 75 2/3 innings were more than anyone else in the top 10 in the category, but he’s being drafted an average of 18 spots ahead of the next highest RP.
He’s also the closer for a Brewers team expected to take at least a small step backward this season in the competitive NL Central. Expect fewer saves this season and not enough strikeouts to justify picking Hader above the likes of Charlie Morton, Zach Greinke, Lucas Giolito, Chris Paddack and other top-tier starters.
