Tag: buffalo bills vs. philadelphia eagles

Bills offense made history in overtime loss to Eagles, but not in a good way

The #Bills did so well but still lost in a fashion no NFL team ever has:

The Buffalo Bills lost 37-34 in overtime to the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday afternoon. The Eagles have the best record in the NFL, currently sitting at 10-1, and so going toe-to-toe with a team having a phenomenal year should be a positive for Bills fans and staff alike.

The Bills offense kept up with the high-flying Eagles, who have the most yards of total offense this season. Buffalo generated 505 yards and had 10 third-down conversions in the game. By comparison, the Eagles generated 378 yards and only three third-down conversions.

Additionally, the Bills won the turnover battle in Philly. Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen and Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts threw an interception apiece, and defensive end Greg Rousseau’s fumble recovery gave the Bills the advantage.

Usually when a team gains a lot of yards, converts on third down and wins the turnover battle, it doesn’t lose the game.

And since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, that had happened 39 times, most recently in 2021 between the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals.

ESPN’s Ed Werder noted that the Bills were the first team in that span to lose in a game where it put up over 500 yards, converted at least 10 third downs and had a positive turnover margin:

And that won’t help Bills fans feel good about Sunday’s loss.

We did some digging to see some other games that fit this criteria, and some were close but missed a piece of the stat here or there:

  • Cincinnati Bengals tied Carolina Panthers 37-37 in 2014. Bengals had 10+ 3rd-down conversions and over 500 yards but lost the turnover battle.
  • Philadelphia Eagles lost to San Diego Chargers 33-30 in 2013. Eagles had 500+ yards and won the turnover battle, but only converted five 3rd downs.
  • Buffalo Bills lost to the Baltimore Ravens 37-34 (OT) in 2010. Led by Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Bills had 500+ yards of offense and 10+ 3rd downs, but lost the turnover battle as Fitzpatrick’s two interceptions were the difference. Both teams recovered multiple fumbles.

Some familiar teams in the last decade highlight that this can happen again, and another team is likely to do it soon.

[lawrence-related id=127748,120409,127759]

Eagles’ Jordan Mailata ‘couldn’t believe’ Bills coverage for Jalen Hurts winning TD

#Eagles’ Jordan Mailata ‘couldn’t believe’ #Bills coverage for Jalen Hurts winning TD:

The Buffalo Bills were left shocked by the Philadelphia Eagles’ game winning touchdown in overtime to win 37-34 in Week 12. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts took the snap and almost immediately took off running for the end zone from almost 20 yards out to win the game on a walk-off rushing touchdown.

And Bills fans will be wondering why the defense, who would naturally have a difficult time against a team with only one loss all season, would be in that coverage to allow the opposing quarterback the time and space to run into the end zone.

So too was Eagles left tackle Jordan Mailata.

“[I] couldn’t believe the Bills gave [us] that look.” said Mailata to NFL Network’s national correspondent James Palmer following the contest.

What is the Eagles lineman referring to? NFL Next Gen Stats mapped Hurts win, which you can see here if you have recovered from Sunday’s difficult loss:

In that play, the Bills safety Micah Hyde is lined up on the left hashmark parallel with Hurts. Eagles running back D’Andre Swift, wearing No. 0, moves in motion to the right, and Hyde starts drifting toward Hurts right along with linebacker Terrel Bernard.

Since there is a one-on-one coverage on towards the left between Eagles receiver Devonta Smith and Bills cornerback Rasul Douglas, Hyde shifting over gave Hurts enough of a distance between them pre-snap to win the foot race.

Shifting over could be less damaging if Bernard fills that lane instead of shifting along with Hyde, or if linebacker Tyrel Dodson, who was tasked with blitzing Hurts, was able to close the gap created by Mailata and his left guard teammate Landon Dickerson quickly. That is the difficulty of playing an excellent team like the Eagles – mistakes compound into scores.

“Hurts made a number of plays with his feet … he got out a few times and made some trouble with his feet.” said Bills coach Sean McDermott after the game.

Mailata was the first to meet Eagles QB Hurts in the end zone to celebrate the winning touchdown with him.

[lawrence-related id=127748,120409,127759]

Updated look at Bills’ playoff odds in sportsbooks

Updated look at #Bills’ playoff odds in sportsbooks:

The Buffalo Bills went toe-to-toe with NFL’s best team this season, the Philadelphia Eagles. Even though they fought well they ultimately lost in overtime to a Jalen Hurts touchdown.

The Eagles won 37-34 in overtime.

Buffalo is now an even 6-6 heading into its Week 13 bye, and their record truly indicates their performances throughout the 2023 NFL season. And Bills fans are left with the week off to think whether their team is even likely to make the playoffs.

But for those still Bill-eving and interested in placing wagers, it could be profitable move to bet on Buffalo at this point. Odds are now much longer for the team to make the playoffs.

But first, a look at the analytics:

New York Times Playoff Simulator

After Sunday’s loss, the New York Times playoff simulator has drastically reduced the Bills’ chance of making the playoffs. Buffalo’s current odds of making the playoffs is at 14 percent.

Unlike Bills games earlier this season, the offense played fantastic football, perhaps due to changes in the staff supporting quarterback Josh Allen. And when playing against the Eagles, who have only lost one game this season, fantastic football needs to be played by everyone. The Bills defense, naturally, had their work cut out for them and tried their best to stop perhaps the strongest team in the league.

The New York Times playoff simulator works by using an Elo rating system combined with information from betting markets to estimate every NFL teams’ chance of winning. The Elo rating system calculates the relative skill of teams within the NFL. The simulator estimate odds by randomly simulating the remainder of the season thousands of times and counting how often all NFL teams would make the playoffs.

According to the simulations, the Eagles have a greater than 68 percent chance to be the No. 1 seed. That’s how good the team that the Bills faced. And, had the Bills won the game against the Eagles, they would have had a 43 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Instead, the Bills currently have a 14 percent chance. With a fractional chance that they, like the Eagles are predicted to do, of getting the top seed, with the reward of a first-round bye.

The first-round bye goes to the first-place seed in each conference. Currently, the Baltimore Ravens have the best record in the AFC at 9-3. The Bills are currently outside of the playoff spots and would not qualify for the postseason.

According to the simulator, the Bills have what is essentially a must-win game against the 2022 Super Bowl Champions Kansas City Chiefs following their bye week. Starting with a win against the Chiefs would see their odds of making the playoffs jump to 24 percent. A loss to the reigning Super Bowl champions would see the odds drop to 5 percent.

FanDuel

The supercomputer might say one thing, but football markets are feeling differently than the simulations. The betting market is much more optimistic of the Bills chance to not only make the playoffs, but win the division, and even the Super Bowl.

Despite the loss to the Eagles, the Bills currently have a +360 odds to make the 2023 NFL playoffs. This amounts to a 21.74 percent chance. The betting market also believes the Bills have a 10 percent odds (+900) of winning the AFC East vs. the NYT simulator which had the Bills at a 3% chance.

Now, Buffalo going toe to toe with a Super Bowl caliber team in the Eagles shows that they can hang with the best of the best. Could they run the AFC table and book their place in Super Bowl LVIII?

According to FanDuel, the Bills have a 5 percent chance (+1900) of winning the AFC Championship and a 3 percent chance (+3300) of winning this year’s Super Bowl.

Now, betting markets aren’t designed to truly highlight people’s thoughts on what a team is capable of, but designed to have people bet as much as possible. Always gamble responsibly if you choose to gamble.

[lawrence-related id=127758,127750,120388]

Bills’ Sean McDermott, players comment on officiating during loss to Eagles

#Bills’ Sean McDermott, players comment on officiating during loss to #Eagles:

The Bills lost a rainy game to the Eagles 37-34 on Sunday, one that had a ripple effect on their season as they are on the outside looking in regarding the NFL playoff picture.

The Bills have their fair share of responsibility for the loss, as their offense, defense and special teams had moments that could have led to a win.

The officiating was poor as well.

Officials failed to call multiple flagrant penalties on Philadelphia, including blindside and defenseless hits on WR1 Stefon Diggs and TE Dalton Kincaid.

When asked about the issues with the officials, head coach Sean McDermott played it safe rather than cost his team and stir the ire of the league.

“I’m not going to go there,” the coach responded.

The Bills had 11 flags for 80 total yards, 10 of which were in the first half alone, costing them 75 yards. Six of the penalties were in the first quarter (the most this season.)

During McDermott’s tenure, penalties have been an issue that he’s sought to address. Nonetheless, some of the calls ranged from head-scratching to outrageous among media and fans alike.

Regardless, McDermott is focused on where his team could have won the game, rather than any shoddy officiating.

“I’m not going to get into how many we had, how many they had, or whether the calls were there or not,” McDermott added. “At the end of the day, you got to take the officials out of it, is what you got to do with your level of play.”

Still, there was something strange about the officiating in the contest with referee Shawn Hochuli and his crew of Tim Podraza, Rich Martinez, Chad Hill, Terry Killens Jr., Patrick Holt and Jason Ledet.

The crew penalized QB Josh Allen in the second quarter for intentional grounding while he was getting rid of the ball after Eagles LB Haason Reddick pulled him to the ground via a blatant horse-collar tackle in front of the referee.

Allen attempted to make a heads-up play with a throw in Gabe Davis’ direction while his jersey was being torn from Reddick’s horse-collar tackle.

“The hit on Josh Allen, we felt that the force was from the front of the collar, and what pulled him down was not from the back. So, that’s pretty much it. We felt that he was pulled down from the front of the jersey and the collar,” Hochuli said in the postgame pool report.

He also stated that Allen was “responsible for where the ball goes given that he started his throwing motion after he was contacted, so we didn’t feel like the ball was in the vicinity or the area of an eligible receiver.”

McDermott had a different take.

“From the information that I got, Gabe was in the area,” he noted.

Another such instance was a pass interference non-call on a throw intended for WR Trent Sherfield. Eagles cornerback Darius Slay tackled Sherfield before the ball got to him.

“On that play from the view and the angle of the official, we just didn’t feel that it significantly hindered the receiver’s ability to catch the ball,” Hochuli said.

When the Bills had a second-and-3 from their 39-yard line with a three-point lead in overtime, LB Tyrel Dodson knocked a pass loose from Eagles WR A.J. Brown as he tried to bring it in. Buffalo recovered the ball, and that would have ended the game.

The officiating crew ruled the pass incomplete, and the ball was snapped fast so NFL video replay officials couldn’t review it.

Perhaps Hochuli and his team were not paying attention, or perhaps they didn’t see what the 69,879 in attendance at Lincoln Financial Field in South Philly witnessed or what thousands watching the game broadcast saw.

Or perhaps there’s a pattern of questionable performance.

 

“A lot. A lot. A lot,” said Poyer per Tim Graham of The Athletic. “It seems like it’s been like that all season. Nothing’s being done about it. Officials aren’t being held accountable for their calls or no-calls. Players are getting fined during the week for silly stuff.

“It doesn’t seem like, I don’t know … it’s not an excuse, but it’s just the way the game is being played this year. Doesn’t seem like a whole lot of accountability for the officials.”

[lawrence-related id=127638,127509,127620]

Bills’ Sean McDermott on defense: ‘We didn’t do enough to win the game’

#Bills’ Sean McDermott on defense: ‘We didn’t do enough to win the game’

The Bills fell to the Eagles 37-34 in an NFL week 12 overtime loss Sunday.

On a night overtaken by rain in Philadelphia, the Bills defense was overtaken on the final drive of the game, yet again giving an opponent the victory.

Head coach Sean McDermott, who’s taken on defensive playcalling duties following the offseason leave of assistant head coach and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier, has faced reasonable questioning about shouldering both roles.

After such an important game with playoff implications and a loss that puts the team at 6-6 on the year, he was asked whether the team’s defense let the offense down in those key spots late in the game.

“Well that’s that’s where I look first,” McDermott said to the press. “Where I look at myself first, I look at the defense right after that, and in the second half, we didn’t do enough to win the game so if you come out and you’re able to shut them down in the second half like we did in the first half then yeah. But, again, I think it’s a team game and so you have opportunities across the board offensively, defensively, and special teams, but that’s where I start with myself and the defense.”

Buffalo’s six losses this season haven’t been by more than six points, and in three of those six losses the Bills offense has scored to give them a lead with under two minutes left to play.

In four of those contests, however, their defense has given up points in the final two minutes allowing their opponents to either tie or win those games.

“Seems like this year every game comes down to the last two minutes, offense has the ball, we have the ball and these are the results,” S Micah Hyde said postgame.

“We could have nine, ten wins right now but that’s in fantasy land, and in real life we understand what our record is. You can’t doubt that, you can’t shy away from it. We definitely have a lot of upside. It’s crazy to say that, with our record being six and six, but the close games that we have that we’ve lost have been by a few points, so we got to, in those situational moments, find a way to get a takeaway or, if the offense has the ball, get a touchdown.”

It’s not been hard to notice the times that the Bills defense and special teams have not executed their phases of complimentary football in those losses.

And in some cases, coaching and coordinating decisions, such as on the Eagles winning drive.

Or on the Bills’ final offensive drives of regulation and in overtime, when they chose to kick field goals instead of going for a touchdown to win.

“If we had gotten to fourth and two, fourth and three, possibly. We had talked about that, going for it, going for the win, for sure,” McDermott added.

“Obviously, I mean hindsight’s always 20/20 you know so believe me it’s gone through my through my mind more than once, so when you get the result you got you’re always looking back and saying hey maybe kept one of those, so that’s the life we live.”

[lawrence-related id=127620,127510,127614][anyclip-media thumbnail=”undefined” playlistId=”undefined” content=”dW5kZWZpbmVk”][/anyclip-media]

Bills’ Josh Allen post-Eagles loss: ‘We’ve got good things going’

Josh Allen sees positives after loss:

The Buffalo Bills lost 37-34 in overtime in a Sunday matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles.

In a game muddied by rain, misses and drops on potential scoring plays, failed defensive stops, penalties, and poor officiating, there was a glaring bright spot.

QB Josh Allen had 81 yards on nine carries with two TDs on the ground to go with 339 yards with two TDs in the air, putting up 420 of the Bills’ 512 total yards of offense on the day.

Still, the focus remains on the playoff picture. With more challenges ahead, Allen knows they need to be prepared.

“We got to refresh get healthy for this next week and you got to attack the rest of the season week by week,” the captain said of his team to the press.

Allen became the first player in NFL history with four games with 300+ passing yards and 75+ rushing yards in the road loss.

“His level of play has risen over the last two weeks,” Bills coach Sean McDermott said during his postgame media session. “That is really the biggest thing. When your quarterback is playing well, you have a chance. The inconsistency leading up to the last three weeks were one of the reasons why I made the decision that I did to move forward here. The last two weeks, Josh Allen’s level of play has been good enough for us to win.”

Despite key contributions during other parts of the game, RB James Cook dropped what would have been a touchdown, K Tyler Bass missed a field goal, and there was a miscommunication with WR2 Gabe Davis on a route that could have put the Bills in position to score a touchdown be it on that play or otherwise.

In the end, the defense’s failure to get key stops, and these key members of the offense and special teams’ ability to execute in key moments proved costly.

The Bills became the 40th team since the 1970 Merger to have 500 yards, 10 third down conversions, and a positive turnover margin in a game as well as the first team to lose in that scenario. Those teams were previously 39-0, per ESPN Stats and Info.

The improvements and total production production on offense didn’t go unnoticed.

“I thought we moved the ball well, I mean 500 yards, I think that says a lot about the direction we’re headed on offense,” McDermott added.

As they still remain in the playoff hunt, Allen’s belief in the team is unwavering.

“I’m extremely confident in our guys,” he added. “The men that we have in this locker room, we understand where we’re at. So, we’ve got good things going.”

His perspective and the way he backs it up with his play is not lost on his teammates either.

“I mean, that’s why we love him so much,” center Mitch Morse said. “That’s why he’s the undisputed leader in this locker room. It definitely gets your chili hot when that happens, so, for us, we just rally around a guy like that. I’d go to war with that guy any day of the week.”

[lawrence-related id=127609,127591,127587]