Tag: Brewers Braves odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Milwaukee Brewers (57-47) and Atlanta Braves (65-36) meet Saturday for the 2nd game of a 3-game series. First pitch from Truist Park is set for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 3-1

Atlanta won 10-7 as a -175 home favorite in the series opener Friday. Both teams had big 2nd innings as the Brewers jumped out to a 2-0 lead during the top half while the Braves stormed back to take a 3-2 lead during the bottom half. Atlanta pulled away in the 5th and 7th innings, scoring 6 runs in those frames to take a commanding 10-4 lead.

Milwaukee now sits at 5-5 in its last 10 games overall and is 28-23 on the road this season. Friday’s win broke a 2-game losing streak for Atlanta, who now sits at 4-6 in its last 10 overall. The Braves are 33-19 at home on the year.

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Brewers at Braves projected starters

RHP Julio Teheran vs. RHP Bryce Elder

Teheran (2-4, 3.75 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 57 2/3 innings.

  • Only career start vs. Braves: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 4-2 home loss Sunday
  • Road stats: 1-3, 5.16 ERA (22 2/3 IP, 13 ER) in 4 starts

Elder (7-2, 3.30 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 114 2/3 innings.

  • Only career start vs. Brewers: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 2 K in Sunday’s win
  • Home stats: 3-1, 3.69 ERA (61 IP, 25 ER) in 11 starts

Brewers at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:09 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Brewers +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Braves -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers +1.5 (-115) | Braves -1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Brewers at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 4, Brewers 1

Moneyline

PASS. 

I like the Braves to win here, but at -200, the line is simply not worth the juice. Bet the run line and/or O/U instead.

Run line/Against the spread

LEAN BRAVES -1.5 (-105). 

Neither team is particularly hotter than the other and the Braves only hold a slight 6-4 lead when it comes to the last 10 head-to-head matchups. The Braves do have the pitching advantage as they are 3-2 in Elder’s last 5 starts and 1-0 in his lone career start vs. Milwaukee, whereas the Brewers are 1-4 in Teheran’s last 5. I expect the Braves’ pitching advantage and home dominance to not only carry them to the win but also help them cover the spread here.

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Over/Under

BET UNDER 10 (-115). 

For Milwaukee, the Under is 5-0 in its last 5 games and 8-2 in its last 10. The Under is also 3-1-1 in Teheran’s last 5 starts and 1-0 in his only career start vs. Atlanta.

For Atlanta, the Under is 4-0 in its last 4 games and 6-4 in its last 10. The Under is 3-2 in Elder’s last 5 starts and 1-0 in his only start vs. Milwaukee.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Milwaukee Brewers (57-46) and Atlanta Braves (64-36) play the opener of a 3-game set at Truist Park Friday. First pitch is at 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 2-1

The Brewers are coming off a series win against the Cincinnati Reds and are 6-4 over the last 10. They have opened up a 1 1/2-game lead in the NL Central. These teams met last weekend with Atlanta taking 2 of 3. The Brew Crew are 9-3 against the NL East.

The Braves are slumping at just 3-7 over the last 10 games with 2 of those wins against Milwaukee. They’re still 20-10 over the last 30 games and have pummeled the NL Central at 10-2. The bats have cooled a bit as we enter the dog days of summer. Atlanta has averaged 2.75 runs per game over the last 4 games.

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Brewers at Braves projected starters

RHP Adrian Houser vs. RHP Yonny Chirinos

Houser (3-2, 3.86 ERA) makes his 12th start and 14th appearance. He has a 1.51 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 63 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 10 K in 4-3 win over Braves
  • 4 career starts vs. Braves: 0-3, 3.86 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 22 K in 21 IP

Chirinos (4-4, 4.02 ERA) makes his 5th start and 16th appearance. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 4.5 K/9 in 62 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 8 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 3 K vs. Kansas City Royals June 24
  • Has never faced Brewers
  • Mixes in sinker, slider and split-finger; the slider has been hammered to a .345 OBA this season, but the opposition hits just .120 against the splitter

Brewers at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:10 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Brewers +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Braves -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers +1.5 (-135) | Braves -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Brewers at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 5, Braves 4

Moneyline

Chirinos is making his team debut as he last pitched July 16 for the Tampa Bay Rays before the Braves picked him up off waivers. He had a 6.86 ERA in his last 5 appearances for the Rays and may see 4 innings in this game if he’s able to stay away from trouble. That seems unlikely on a humid Atlanta summer night. I’ll take a chance on BREWERS +135 because this matchup is not that uneven.

Run line/Against the spread

The Braves are just 23-28 on the RL at home, and the Brewers are 27-23 on the road. Both teams have solid pens, and Milwaukee is at a good price in case they aren’t able to cash the ML.

I’ll take BREWERS +1.5 (-135).

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Over/Under

Only 1 of the 3 games between the teams last weekend touched this number. The Brewers are just 1-9 O/U over the last 10 games. Atlanta is 4-6. The Over is 5-5 in the last 10 matchups between the teams. There are a couple of iffy starters going, but based on how the Braves have struggled offensively, and the Brewers’ futility O/U, I’ll take UNDER 10 (-105).

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Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The red-hot Milwaukee Brewers (18-8) visit the Atlanta Braves (12-15) Friday to start a 3-game series at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee has won 8 of its last 9 games, which includes a 3-game sweep of the Cincinnati Reds at home Tuesday-Thursday.

Atlanta prevented a 3-game sweep from the New York Mets by winning their series final 9-2 Friday, and the Braves are 5-5 in their last 10 games.

These teams split last year’s season series 2-2, but the Braves had a plus-8 run differential in those meetings. Atlanta defeated Milwaukee in a 2021 National League Division Series 3-1.

Brewers at Braves projected starters

LHP Eric Lauer vs. RHP Jesse Chavez (bullpen start)

Lauer (2-1, 1.93 ERA) threw a 7 IP-gem in Milwaukee’s 9-1 home win over the Chicago Cubs Saturday, allowing 1 HR with 5 H, 1 BB and 11 K. He has a 2.50 FIP, 0.99 WHIP and 13.1 K/9 in 23 1/3 IP over 4 starts this year.

  • Lauer got lit up in 3 IP of relief work for 3 ER on 2 HR last season by the Braves in Milwaukee’s 6-3 loss in May.
  • Lauer lost Game 4 vs. Atlanta 5-4 in 2021 NLDS in 3 2/3 IP with 2 ER, 2 H, 2 BB and 2 K.

The Braves are likely to run 38-year-old RHP Jesse Chavez out to open the game.

  • Chavez’s last outing came Tuesday as he threw 27 pitches over 2.1 innings. He allowed 1 hit and struck out 2 in the outing against the New York Mets.
  • Atlanta’s bullpen ranks 4th in WAR (1.4), 2nd in both FIP (2.91) and hard-hit rate (33.2%) and 3rd in exit velocity (86.7), per FanGraphs.

Brewers at Braves odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:30 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Brewers -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Braves -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (+140) | Braves +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Brewers at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 4, Brewers 3

Money line

BET the BRAVES (-105) at a cheap price because the Brewers (-115) have beaten up on bad teams but are just 2-3 overall vs. teams with a winning record while Atlanta has played 11 games vs. winning teams (5-6 overall).

Granted, Atlanta has a losing record, but the Braves are the reigning World Series champs and will turn it around as it gets healthier. Braves superstar RF/DH Ronald Acuna Jr. recently returned to the lineup after being sidelined for nearly a year with a knee injury.

Also, the Braves have hit Lauer well in their two meetings, and Atlanta’s bullpen is one of the best in baseball.

GIMME the BRAVES (-105).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS because the Braves +1.5 (-180) is out of my price range, and I’m not confident enough in Atlanta to take its alternate RL.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-120) because the Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 Brewers-Braves meetings, Lauer has outstanding pitching peripherals to support his strong basic numbers, and Atlanta’s bullpen is elite.

However, Milwaukee’s lineup is hitting closer to its potential after a very disappointing 2021, and the Braves are going to bust out of their hitting slumber eventually.

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NLDS Game 4: Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves NLDS Game 4 odds and lines, with expert MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers look to stave off elimination in their series against the Atlanta Braves Tuesday. First pitch for Game 4 is at 5:15 ET at Truist Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Brewers vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Brewers LHP Eric Lauer (7-5, 3.19 ERA) is expected to make his first appearance of the postseason. He had a 1.14 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through 118 2/3 IP across 20 starts and four relief appearances in the regular season.

  • Allowed 3 runs on 4 hits over 4 innings in a 6-3 loss in relief May 14 in his only appearance against the Braves this season.
  • Received a no-decision in an 8-6 loss to the L.A. Dodgers with 5 earned runs on 6 hits across 5 innings in his last start.

Braves RHP Huascar Ynoa (4-6, 4.05 ERA) is expected to make his first appearance of the series. He had a 1.11 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 through 91 IP over 17 starts and one relief appearance in the regular season.

  • Took the loss with 5 earned runs on 9 hits over 4 1/3 innings May 16 in his only start of the year against the Brewers.
  • Pitched 4 scoreless innings with 1 hit and 4 walks against the L.A. Dodgers in the 2020 NLCS.

Brewers at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Braves -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers +1.5 (-170) | Braves -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Brewers 4, Braves 2

Money line (ML)

The Brewers’ only two runs of the series came in Game 1 when 1B Rowdy Tellez hit a two-run homer. The Brewers are 2-2 in Atlanta including regular-season meetings.

The Braves are not doing much on offense either but have won the last two games by a combined 3-0 score. Ynoa has postseason experience and the Braves scored 52 more runs than the Brewers in the regular season.

However, the Braves had the worst home win-loss record of any team in the postseason. Atlanta was 42-38 at home, while Milwaukee won 50 games on the road.

Take the BREWERS (+120).

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Braves have actually been the very worst team in the major leagues at covering the spread at home with a 29-52 ATS record.

The Brewers were the fourth-best team on the road at 51-31 ATS.

Anything can happen in a short postseason series, but the numbers say not to expect the Braves to cover.

Take the BREWERS +1.5 (-170).

Over/Under (O/U)

Each game in this series has had a total of 3 runs. There has been little offense.

Expect that to continue tonight. Both teams’ Over percentage this season is under 49%.

Take UNDER 8.5 (+100).

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NLDS Game 3: Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves NLDS Game 3 odds and lines, with expert MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers visit Truist Park Monday for Game 3 of their best-of-five National League Division Series with the Atlanta Braves. First pitch is scheduled for 1:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Brewers vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Atlanta evened the series Saturday with a 3-0 win in Game 2 as LHP Max Fried pitched 6 scoreless innings, allowing zero walks and 3 hits with 9 strikeouts.

Series: Tied 1-1.

RHP Freddy Peralta is on the hill for the Brewers. He was 10-5 with a 2.81 ERA (144 1/3 IP, 45 ER), 0.97 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 through 27 regular-season starts and one relief outing.

  • Second-half: 3-2 with a 3.69 ERA (46 1/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.12 WHIP and 5.0 K/BB over 10 starts.
  • Peralta beat Atlanta 10-9 May 16 with a stat line of 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 8 K.
  • Road stats: 5-2 with a 2.70 ERA (60 IP, 18 ER), 1.07 WHIP and 3.1 K/BB across 12 starts.
  • vs. Braves on the current roster (55 PA): 2.71 FIP with a .156 batting average (BA), .251 wOBA, .282 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 32.7 K% and 86.0 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Ian Anderson is Atlanta’s projected starter. He was 9-5 with a 3.58 ERA (128 1/3 IP, 51 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 over 24 starts.

  • Second-half: 4-0 with a 3.62 ERA (32 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.18 WHIP and 1.9 K/BB across six starts.
  • Picked up a 5-1 victory against Milwaukee May 15, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 4 BB and 4 K.
  • Home stats: 5-1 with a 3.52 ERA (61 1/3 IP, 24 ER), 1.13 WHIP and 2.6 K/BB across 11 starts.
  • vs. Brewers on the current roster (21 PA): 4.00 FIP with a .063 BA, .208 wOBA, .183 xSLG, 19.0 K% and 84.0 mph EV.

Brewers at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:20 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -103 (bet $103 to win $100) | Braves -117 (bet $117 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+160) | Braves +1.5 (-200)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Prediction

Brewers 7, Braves 3

Money line (ML)

BET the BREWERS (-103) for 1 unit to win Game 3 of the NLDS. Milwaukee has the second-best road winning percentage and has a much higher winning percentage against righty starters than Atlanta.

Furthermore, we have a “pros vs. joe’s” scenario in the betting market as 55% of the cash wagered is on the Brew Crew but nearly 60% of the bets placed are on the Braves, according to Pregame.com at the time of writing. Typically in sports betting, it’s wise to follow the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.

Peralta’s advanced pitching numbers against Atlanta and as a whole are much better than Anderson’s. He grades in the 88th percentile or better in EV, xSLG, expected wOBA, K%, hard-hit rate and whiff rate. While Anderson grades in the 55th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, xSLG, expected wOBA, K% and chase rate.

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Brewers -1.5 (+160) since I like them outright, Milwaukee is 51-30 ATS on the road and Atlanta has the worst home cover rate at 28-52 ATS.

However, Peralta has looked a little shaky down the stretch. The Brewers went just 2-3 in his September starts and he had just four quality starts since the All-Star break.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (+105) for a half unit because that’s where the presumed “sharp” money is while the public slightly prefers the Under. According to Pregame.com, more than three-fourths of the cash wagered is on the Under whereas just 51% of the bets placed are on the Over.

That said, there are too many pro-Under trends that we have to buck such as Milwaukee playing to the Under in its past six Division Series games, Atlanta playing to the Under in its past four Division Series games and the Under being 3-1-1 in the past five head-to-head meetings in Atlanta.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (51-53) host the Milwaukee Brewers (62-42) Saturday for the second game of their three-game series at Truist Park with the first pitch scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee rallied back from a 4-run deficit after the 1st inning to beat Atlanta 9-5 in the series opener Friday.

Season series: Tied 2-2.

RHP Brandon Woodruff makes his 21st start for the Brewers. Woodruff is 7-5 with a 2.14 ERA (126 IP, 30 ER), an MLB-best 0.84 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Loss, 3-1, with 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 9 K Sunday against the Chicago White Sox.
  • 2021 road splits: 4-4 with a 1.96 ERA (64 1/3 IP, 14 ER), 0.72 WHIP and 3.8 K/BB in 10 starts.

LHP Kyle Muller is Atlanta’s projected starter. Muller is 2-3 with a 2.55 ERA (24 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 4.7 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 across five starts and one relief appearance in his rookie season.

  • Last outing: Win, 2-0, with 5 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 3 K Monday at the New York Mets.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Brewers at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:17 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Braves +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+115) | Braves +1.5 (-140)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Brewers 5, Braves 2

Money line (ML)

BET the BREWERS (-140) because the Brew Crew’s lineup has been one of the most productive in baseball since the All-Star Game and they have won eight straight road games by at least 3 runs.

Also, the Brewers have a decisive edge in the pitching matchup as Woodruff is a Cy Young-caliber starter while Muller is in his rookie season and Milwaukee’s bullpen is more reliable than Atlanta’s.

Woodruff’s last start was Milwaukee’s only loss in its last seven games so I expect a motivated bounce-back effort out of him. Furthermore, the Brewers’ bullpen is seventh in xFIP while Atlanta’s ranks 20th in xFIP.

GIMME the BREWERS (-140) for 1 unit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Brewers -1.5 (+115) because of Milwaukee’s dominance recently on the road. However, something is telling me to stay away. Maybe it’s because Muller is Atlanta’s fifth-ranked prospect with nasty stuff and a lot of upside.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 9 (-115) for a tiny wager as a “contrarian play” against a slight majority of the market that’s backing the Over.

In addition, the Brewers are 6-14 O/U in Woodruff starts and the Braves have played to the Under in four straight Muller starts.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (61-42) host the Atlanta Braves (51-52) Friday for the start of a three-game set at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Braves lead 2-1.

RHP Corbin Burnes is Milwaukee’s projected starter. Burnes is 6-4 with a 2.12 ERA (102 IP, 24 ER), 0.90 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 12.9 K/9 in 17 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 6-1, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 6 K vs. the Chicago White Sox Saturday.
  • 2021 road splits: 3-0 with a 1.61 ERA (44 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 0.78 WHIP and 11.8 K/BB rate in seven starts.

RHP Touki Toussaint makes his third start for the Braves. Toussaint is 1-1 with a 1.32 ERA (13 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 8 H, 2 BB and 15 K this year.

  • Last outing: Loss, 2-1, with 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 10 K at the Philadelphia Phillies Sunday.
  • Career home splits: 6-1 with a 4.11 ERA (61 1/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.39 WHIP and 1.9 K/BB rate in seven starts and 13 bullpen outings.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Brewers at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Braves +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+120) | Braves +1.5 (-145)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Brewers 7, Braves 2

Money line (ML)

GIMME the BREWERS (-140) for 1 unit because oddsmakers have moved the line 15 cents on the dollar in favor of Milwaukee (according to Pregame.com), which indicates the House is taking well-respected money on the Brew Crew.

Milwaukee’s lineup really struggled through the first half of the season but has been raking to start the second half. Milwaukee’s lineup ranks third in WAR, sixth in wRC+, fifth in wOBA and ninth in BB% since the All-Star break.

Also, Toussaint has pitched awesome in his first two starts of the season, but he has a career 5.38 ERA, so regression is most likely forthcoming. Atlanta’s bullpen isn’t reliable enough if Toussaint can’t give the Braves a quality start.

Atlanta’s bullpen ranks 19th in xFIP, 22nd in SIERA and 21st in K-BB% whereas Milwaukee’s relievers rank in the top 10 of all those metrics.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the BREWERS -1.5 (+120) because I’d probably just stick with Milwaukee’s money line, but the Brew Crew is the right side in this game.

Milwaukee is tied with the best cover rate on the road this season (33-17 ATS). However, my hesitancy in this spot is Atlanta’s 6-2 ATS mark as a home underdog.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-105) for a tiny wager if at all since nearly three-fourths of the public is backing the Under whereas a slight majority of the cash is on the Over.

Typically, it’s wiser in sports betting to follow the money, especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the crowd.

Not only that, but despite how nasty Burnes has been this season, the Brewers are still 8-6-2 O/U when he starts. Plus, Milwaukee has scored at least 6 runs in seven of the last 10 games.

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