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Breakout candidates in the NFL need a few things: Obvious talent, creating untapped potential, and new or growing opportunity. Zach Tom has both, which helped make him the pick as the breakout candidate for the Green Bay Packers in 2023.
Per PFF, Tom finished his rookie season with a pass-blocking grade of 82.4 when playing at offensive tackle, highlighting his obvious talent for keeping pass-rushers away from the quarterback when lined up at a premium position. Tom is also competing to be the starting right tackle for the Packers, providing the bump in opportunity, and it’s possible that, even in the scenario where he’s not the Week 1 starter, he’ll be the top backup at every position along the offensive line.
Last season, Tom played 489 total snaps over four positions along the offensive line, allowing just 12 pressures (one sack) and committing just a single penalty.
Entering 2023, Tom has a legitimate chance to be the starter at right tackle when the Packers open the season against the Chicago Bears in September.
Packers Wire’s Paul Brel noted that Tom and Yosh Nijman rotated in and out as the starter at right tackle during the offseason workout program. It’s possible the starting right tackle spot is the only position truly up for grabs, and Tom and Nijman are the obvious top two competitors entering training camp.
The guess here is that Tom was an easy pick for PFF as the Packers’ breakout candidate. He was the team’s highest-graded rookie in 2022, he plays a premium position, he’s expected to take a jump as a second-year player, he’s versatile enough to play any offensive line position, and he’ll likely be a starter to open the season. That’s a great combination for a breakout player.
What would “breaking out” include for a player like Tom? In the most simple case, it would feature Tom becoming a plus-starter at right tackle and giving the Packers five excellent pass-blockers in front of Jordan Love. In another scenario, Tom would fill in at left tackle if there’s an injury to David Bakhtiari and prove to the Packers that he’s the future at left tackle. What about a third? Tom ends up winning the starting job at center over Josh Myers and gives the Packers a big bump in the middle of the offensive line. All three are possible, although the first scenario is Tom’s easiest path to a breakout in 2023.
