Tag: Braves Reds odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Atlanta Braves (82-70) and Cincinnati Reds (74-79) conclude a 3-game series Thursday. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is slated for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Braves vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Reds lead 4-1

The Braves finally broke through against the Reds Wednesday night with a 7-1 win, their first over Cincinnati this season. SP Spencer Schwellenbach was sharp, allowing just 1 run on 5 hits and 2 walks with 5 K’s over 6 innings. DH Marcell Ozuna went 3 for 4 with a homer and 2 RBIs while 3B Gio Urshela drove in 3 runs. The victory snapped a 3-game skid for Atlanta.

Reds SP Jakob Junis pitched 6 strong innings (1 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 6 K), but the Reds bullpen couldn’t hold up. RPs Tony Santillan and Justin Wilson gave up a combined 5 runs in 1 1/3 innings. CF TJ Friedl drove in the only run for Cincinnati on a sac fly in the 6th.

Braves at Reds projected starters

RHP Chris Sale vs. RHP Julian Aguiar

Sale (17-3, 2.35 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 11.4 K/9 in 172 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 10-1 home victory against LA Dodgers Saturday
  • 2024 road splits: 7-3, 2.42 ERA (85 2/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 12.2 K/9 in 14 starts
  • Last start vs. Reds: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 8-2 home win June 1, 2023, as a member of Boston Red Sox

Aguiar (2-0, 4.88 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 4.9 K/9 in 27 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 8-4 victory at Minnesota Twins Friday
  • 2024 home splits: 0-0, 10.80 ERA (6 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 2.25 WHIP, 4.1 K/9 in 2 starts
  • Has never faced Braves

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Braves at Reds odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Wednesday at 11:35 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Braves -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Reds +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (-125) | Reds +1.5 (+105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Braves at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Reds 1

Moneyline

PASS.

The Braves (-200) win this game and the series Thursday afternoon, but I’ll take the better odds on the run line.

Run line/Against the spread

BET BRAVES -1.5 (-125).

Betting on the Braves to cover the run line Thursday looks like a smart move with Sale taking the mound. He’s been lights out lately, not losing a start since June 27.

The Reds, on the other hand, really struggle against lefties, hitting just .226 as a team and going 16-25 against southpaws this season. Plus, Cincinnati hasn’t been great in day games, sitting at 24-35 on the season. With Atlanta only 2 games back in the Wild Card race, it’ll be motivated to grab the win.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8 (-105).

Betting the Under feels like a smart move with Sale pitching. He’s been lights out, giving up more than 2 earned runs only 3 times in 28 starts this year. In fact, he’s allowed 1 run or fewer in half of those games.

The big question is how much offense Atlanta can produce, but with Sale likely keeping the Reds in check, the Under looks like the way to go.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Atlanta Braves (81-70) and Cincinnati Reds (74-78) play the 2nd game of a 3-game series Wednesday. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is slated for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Braves vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Reds lead 4-0

The Braves lost their 3rd straight game Tuesday, falling 6-5 to the Reds after a bullpen meltdown. Atlanta led 5-2 through the 6th inning, powered by HRs from RF Jorge Soler, 1B Matt Olson, and CF Michael Harris II. However, its bullpen surrendered 4 unanswered runs over the next 2 innings, allowing Cincinnati to pull ahead and secure the win.

Reds LF Spencer Steer hit a 7th-inning 2-run homer to put Cinncinati ahead for good. RP Alexis Diaz secured his 28th save of the season. Cincinnati remains unbeaten against Atlanta this year, improving to 4-0 in the season series.

Braves at Reds projected starters

RHP Spencer Schwellenbach vs. RHP Jakob Junis

Schwellenbach (6-7, 3.73 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 103 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 6-2 home victory against LA Dodgers Friday
  • 2024 road splits: 2-3, 3.53 ERA (51 IP, 20 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 in 9 starts
  • Has never faced Reds

Junis (4-0, 2.73 ERA) makes his 4th start and 21st appearance. He has a 0.89 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 56 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 6-1 defeat at St. Louis Cardinals Thursday
  • 2024 home splits: 1-0, 2.10 ERA (25 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 0.70 WHIP, 7.0 K/9 in 10 appearances (2 starts)
  • Career vs. Braves: 0-1, 6.23 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 11 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 3 appearances (2 starts)

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Braves at Reds odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Tuesday at 11:39 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Braves -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Reds +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+110) | Reds +1.5 (-135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Braves at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 4, Braves 3

Moneyline

BET REDS (+125).

Betting Reds ML Wednesday is definitely worth considering, especially with those tempting plus odds. Cincinnati has been unbeatable against the Braves this season, winning all 4 meetings and outscoring Atlanta 20-10.

Meanwhile, the Braves are struggling, having lost their last 3 games. The Reds are in better form, winning 3 of their last 4, and Junis has been impressive on the mound, giving up just 1 earned run on 4 hits over his last 14 innings. With all these factors, backing the Reds seems like a solid choice.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I’ll focus my wager on the moneyline and stay away from the run line.

Over/Under

PASS.

Despite the trends favoring the Over in this one, I’m going to avoid it. These pitchers have been good lately, and I personally don’t see it as a high-scoring affair.

If you want to go with the grain here, the Over has hit in 8 of the last 10 meetings. Both squads are also coming into this game hot offensively, having gone over the total in each of their last 4 games overall.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Atlanta Braves (81-69) and Cincinnati Reds (73-78) begin a 3-game series Tuesday. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is slated for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Braves vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Reds lead 3-0

The Braves are heading out for a 6-game road trip after splitting a 4-game series with the LA Dodgers in Atlanta. They struggled in the final 2 games, getting outscored 18-2. Now just 1 game behind the Mets for the last Wild Card spot, Atlanta is looking to rebound and keep their playoff hopes alive.

The Reds return to Cincinnati after a balanced 10-game road stretch, finishing with a 5-5 record. They capped off the trip by taking their series against the Twins in Minnesota. Back at Great American Ballpark, the Reds have been on a roll, winning their last 4 home games and improving their season mark there to 36-39.

Braves at Reds projected starters

RHP Grant Holmes vs. LHP Brandon Williamson

Holmes (2-1, 3.79 ERA) makes his 5th start and 23rd appearance. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 54 2/3 IP.

  • Last appearance: No-decision, 1 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 0 K in 10-1 home victory against the Dodgers Saturday
  • 2024 road splits: 1-1, 3.86 ERA (28 IP, 12 ER), 1.32 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 in 10 games
  • Hasn’t gone more than 2 IP or 33 pitches in any of his last 8 appearances
  • Filling in for Reynaldo Lopez who is on 15-day IL with shoulder tightness

Williamson (0-0, 2.08 ERA) makes his 3rd start and 4th appearance. He has a 0.77 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 13 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 2-1 defeat at the St. Louis Cardinals Wednesday
  • 2024 road splits: 0-0, 2.70 ERA (3 1/3 IP, 1 ER (2 R), 0.90 WHIP, 13.5 K/9 in 1 start

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Braves at Reds odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 12:08 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Braves -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Reds -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+140) | Reds +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Braves at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 6, Braves 4

Moneyline

BET REDS (-105).

Cincinnati has absolutely dominated Atlanta this season, going 3-0 while outscoring them 14-5 in those matchups. After a long road trip, the Reds will be happy to return home, where they’ve had some recent success. Meanwhile, the Braves are coming in limping, forced to start a reliever due to Lopez hitting the injured list.

On the other hand, Williamson has been solid since rejoining the rotation, allowing just 2 ERs in his 2 starts this season. This game is set up perfectly for another Cincinnati win.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I’ll focus my wager on the moneyline and stay away from the run line.

Over/Under

BET OVER 9 (-110).

The Over has hit in 7 of their last 9 meetings, showing a clear trend when these teams play each other. Both squads are also coming into this game hot offensively, having gone over the total in each of their last 3 games.

Cincinnati has been averaging just under 4.5 runs per game (RPG) at home, while Atlanta has been putting up just over 4.5 RPG on the road. With both teams capable of scoring and a history of high totals, the Over looks like a solid bet here.

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Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Cincinnati Reds (40-35) welcome the Atlanta Braves (48-26) to Great American Ball Park Friday. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 3-0

The Reds are riding an 11-game win streak and have won 3 straight 3-game series, beating the Kansas City Royals, Houston Astros and Colorado Rockies. They are in 1st place in the NL Central after overtaking the Milwaukee Brewers. Cincinnati beat the Colorado Rockies 5-3 on Wednesday.

Atlanta leads the NL East and has won 8 straight games, sweeping the Ohiladelphia  Phillies and the Rockies. The Braves are coming off a 5-1 win over the Phillies Thursday. The Braves have held opponents to 2 or fewer runs in 4 of their last 5 games.

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Braves at Reds projected starters

RHP AJ Smith-Shawver vs. RHP Luke Weaver

Smith-Shawver (1-0, 2.03 ERA) makes his 3rd career start. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 13 1/3 IP.

  • The 20-year-old made his MLB debut in a 8-5 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks on June 4, allowing 0 ER in 2 1/3 IP
  • Braves are 3-0 in games he’s pitched in.

Weaver (1-2, 6.47 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.54 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 57 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 10 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 1 K in 9-7  extra-inning win vs. Houston Astros
  • Has allowed at least 3 ER in 4 straight starts
  • Reds are 6-5 with Weaver on the mound

Braves at Reds odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:35 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Braves -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Reds +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (-105) | Reds +1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Braves at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 6, Reds 5

Moneyline

PASS.

The Braves swept the Reds earlier in the season and are among the teams just as hot as Cincinnati. They also have a pitcher that is starting to perform at a high level and should be able to win outright.

However, at (-150), it isn’t worth a play. Similarly, the Reds have been better on the road than at home and aren’t worth the game at (+125) with Weaver on the mound.

Run line/Against the spread

TAKE REDS +1.5 (-115).

Cincinnati is 14-11 on the run line as a home underdog. It is 22-16 on the run line as the home team as well. Both are situations it will be in on Friday evening.

On that note, Atlanta is just 28-36 on the run line as a favorite. While Smith-Shawver has pitched well, he is still young and may struggle against an ultra-hot Reds attack.

Back REDS +1.5 (-115).

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Over/Under

LEAN OVER 10.5 (-120).

Both teams have consistently hit the Over this season.

The Braves are 41-31-2 O/U and have gone Over in 6 of their last 9 battles. Meanwhile, the Reds are 4-3 O/U in their last 7 games and 42-33 O/U on the season.

Considering those trends, back runs to be scored and take the OVER 10.5 (-120).

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (26-50) will host the Atlanta Braves (45-33) at Great American Ball Park for the second in a 3-game series with Saturday’s first pitch scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Braves leads 3-2

The Braves are coming off a 9-1 beatdown after taking just a 2-1 lead into the 7th inning. Reds’ RHP Joel Kuhnel and RHP Luis Cessa both threw an inning and had 3 earned runs, dooming the home side in the opener. SS Dansby Swanson had 4 hits and 3 RBIs.

Atlanta, counting their win to open the series, is 11-3 over its last 4 road series, which included sweeps of the Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals.

The Reds also suffered an embarrassing defeat Thursday on the road, losing 15-7 to the Cubs, then came home and again lost by 8. They’ve lost 9 straight home games. Cincinnati is 3-11 over its last 14.

Braves at Reds projected starters

RHP Spencer Strider vs. RHP Tyler Mahle

Strider (3-2, 3.02 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 13.2 K/9 in 53 2/3 IP.

  • The second-year, 23-year-old from Columbus, Ohio, has 79 strikeouts. For reference, the qualified league leader is averaging just 13.4K/9.
  • Take away a brutal 6 ER showing against the Giants in his second-to-last start, and Strider would have just a 2.16 ERA on the season.

Mahle (3-6, 4.53 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 87 1/3 IP.

  • The 27-year-old led the MLB in starts last season and is on track to do it again in 2022. He struck out 7 over 5 IP with 0 ER in a start against them earlier this year.
  • Mahle had pitched well as of late. Over his last 4 starts, he had a 2.63 ERA.

Braves at Reds odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Braves -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Reds +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (-112) | Reds +1.5 (-108)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Braves at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Reds 4

Money line

AVOID.

Everything is pointing to Atlanta coming out on top, but with the money line at -190, there’s little value here.

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Run line/Against the spread

LEAN REDS FIRST FIVE +170.

Atlanta has beaten a team by 3 or more runs twice in their last 11 games. Max Fried putting on a masterclass against Cincinnati shouldn’t be concerning as the Reds should find traction against Strider.

Cincinnati has the 5th-best home batting average, which drops to 25th on the road, so they’ve been far better at GABP. The Reds also have a better home batting average than the Braves do on the road.

Combine that with Cincinnati having the worst ERA in the MLB after 6 innings, and playing the Reds to start the game off on the right foot has value.

Over/Under

BET OVER 8.5 (-122).

The Reds aren’t the worst team in the NL because they can’t score.

Both the Reds and the Braves, 15th and 5th respectively, rank in the top half of the league in runs. Cincinnati has gone over this total in 8 of its last 10 games.

Considering Fried isn’t on the mound, and both pitchers have struggled at times this season, the Reds should have a better chance to contribute more than one run as well.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

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Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (26-49) will host the Atlanta Braves (44-33) at Great American Ballpark for a 3-game series with Friday’s first pitch scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Tied at 2 games apiece as the teams split their season-opening series April 7-10.

The Braves are coming off a 14-4 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies, but did manage to win 2 of their 3 in the City of Brotherly Love. Atlanta is 10-3 over its last 4 road series which included sweeps of the Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals.

The Reds also suffered an embarrassing defeat Thursday on the road, losing 15-7 to the Cubs. They’ll return home where they have lost 8 straight games. Cincinnati is 3-10 over its last 13.

Braves at Reds projected starters

LHP Max Fried vs. LHP Mike Minor

Fried (7-2, 2.77 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 8.8K/9 in 94 1/3 IP.

  • Was ranked the 23rd-best pitcher in MLB to start the season and has not disappointed. He ended 2020 with a 7-0 record and was 14-7 last season.
  • Has given up more than 2 ER in just 1 of his last 7 starts, but did struggle against Cincinnati in the season opener (5 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 5 K).

Minor (1-4, 7.71 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.60 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 25 2/3 IP.

  • Walks are up and strikes are down from last season for the 34-year-old, who is allowing 10.9 hits per 9 IP as well.
  • Minor has yet to have a game with a sub-6 ERA.

Braves at Reds odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 10:11 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Braves -260 (bet $260 to win $100) | Reds +205 (bet $100 to win $205)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -2.5 (-105) | Reds +2.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +107 | U: -115)

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Braves at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 6, Reds 4

Money line

AVOID.

The Braves have an ace on the mound, and the Reds cannot say the same. Everything is pointing to Atlanta coming out on top, but with the money line at -260, there’s little value here.

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Run line/Against the spread

LEAN REDS +2.5 (-115).

While Fried has had a good season on the mount, he had 5 earned runs against Cincinnati to start the season, and the strikeout-heavy pitcher (ranking 18th in the majors) will actually face a team sitting 17th in strikeouts.

Atlanta has also beaten a team by 3 or more runs just once in their last 10 games. The Reds have the 4th-best home batting average which drops to 25th on the road, so they’ve been far better at GABP.

The Braves sport the better player on the mound, but it’s not a bet they will win by 3-plus runs.

Over/Under

BET OVER 9.5 (-107).

The Reds aren’t the worst team in the NL because they can’t score. Both the Reds and the Braves, 15th and 7th respectively, rank in the top half of the league in runs.

Cincinnati has gone over this total in 7 of its last 9 games. With Minor on the mound, although Atlanta has hit this total in just 2 of its last 7, expect the Braves to abuse the aging left-handed pitcher.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

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Additional MLB coverage:
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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (36-40) wrap up their four-game series with the Cincinnati Reds (38-37) Sunday at Great American Ball Park with a 1:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Reds lead 2-1.

LHP Kyle Muller makes his second career start for the Braves. Muller is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA (5 IP, 3 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 across one start and one relief appearance.

  • Muller is the seventh highest-rated prospect in Atlanta’s organization, according to FanGraphs.com, and has a five-pitch arsenal (4-seam fastball, slider, curveball, sinker and changeup) with a 4-seamer nearing 95 mph.

RHP Tyler Mahle is Cincinnati’s projected starter. Mahle is 7-2 with a 3.56 ERA (78 1/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 across 15 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 8 K in Cincinnati’s 7-5 loss at the Minnesota Twins Monday.
  • vs. Braves on the current roster: 41 at-bats with a .293/.341/.610 slash line, 12/3 K/BB, 3 HR and 13 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Braves at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:43 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Reds -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves +1.5 (-145) | Reds -1.5 (+120)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Braves 6, Reds 4

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the BRAVES (+125) for a quarter unit if at all only because Atlanta’s run line has a lot more value in my eyes and the Braves starter is a bit of a wild card since he’s a highly touted prospect but was recently called up to “The Show.”

However, Mahle’s basic pitching numbers vs. active Braves hitters are bad, but his pitching peripherals are even worse. Mahle has a 5.66 FIP, .377 expected wOBA and .537 expected slugging percentage in 31 plate appearances against current Atlanta batters.

Also, Mahle is more effective on the road than in his home ballpark, which is notoriously hitter-friendly.

Mahle has a 6.93 ERA at home with a .273/.327/.495 opponent slash line and .354 wOBA and has given up double the home runs in less than half the batters in Cincinnati.

Compare those numbers to Mahle’s 2.01 road ERA, .188/.274/.293 road opponent slash line and a .257 wOBA.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the BRAVES +1.5 (-145) for a half unit because the “backdoor” is always open in Cincinnati with the Reds’ terrible bullpen.

Cincinnati’s bullpen gives up the most home runs per nine innings, is 22nd in SIERA, 25th in xFIP and dead-last in left-on-base percentage.

Additionally, the Braves are 12-6 ATS as road underdogs this year with a plus-1.3 run line margin while the Reds are 13-15 ATS as home favorites.

Since Atlanta is covering 66.7% of the time as a road dog, I’m cool with spending a little extra for the Braves +1.5 (-145), which has an implied win probability of 59.2%.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS since I much prefer Atlanta’s sides more than the total because Cincinnati’s lineup ranks 20th in wOBA and 21st in wRC+ against left-handed pitching.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

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Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (36-39) meet the Cincinnati Reds (37-37) in the third game of their four-game series Saturday in Great American Ball Park at 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Atlanta evened the series Friday with a 3-2 win as LHP Drew Smyly outdueled Cincinnati RHP Vladimir Gutierrez. Smyly gave up just one earned run on six hits across six frames with three strikeouts and no walks.

Season series: Tied 1-1.

RHP Ian Anderson makes his 15th start of the season for the Braves. Anderson is 5-3 with a 3.33 ERA (75 2/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Win, 1-0, with 5 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 5 K Monday at the New York Mets.
  • 2021 road splits: 3-2 with a 2.37 ERA (38 IP, 10 ER), 1.18 WHIP and 2.3 K/BB rate.

RHP Luis Castillo is on the mound for the Reds. Castillo is 2-10 with a 5.61 ERA (77 IP, 48 ER), 1.51 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 across 15 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 3-2, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 7 K Sunday at the San Diego Padres.
  • vs. Braves on the current roster: 100 at-bats with a .300/.340/.390 slash line, 23/6 K/BB, 1 HR and 14 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Braves at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Reds -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves +1.5 (-175) | Reds -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Braves 5, Reds 4

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the BRAVES (+110) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit because there’s value in Atlanta’s First 5 Innings run line since Anderson is a far better starter than Castillo.

However, this is a “contrarian play” against a market that has steamed the Reds up from a opening favorite of -114 to the current number.

Anderson has been more effective on the road this season than in Atlanta and Castillo’s numbers are actually worse at home than in road starts.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the BRAVES +0.5 (-130) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit as insurance for our Atlanta First 5 Innings money line bet and as a way to avoid having to sweat the Braves’ sketchy bullpen.

Atlanta’s bullpen ranks 23rd in both SIERA and xFIP and 24th in left-on-base percentage and is tied for 10th in blown saves.

While Cincinnati’s bullpen is as bad or even worse in most of those metrics, the Reds’ relievers are more well-rested entering Saturday.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 5 (-110) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit.

Despite Castillo’s awful basic pitching numbers, there’s a silver lining. He has allowed three or fewer earned runs in his past four outings and he lasted six or more innings in three of those starts.

Castillo’s exit velocity is a career-best and his ERA estimators (xFIP and SIERA) are both a full run less than his actual ERA.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

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Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (35-39) and Cincinnati Reds (37-36) meet Friday at 7:10 p.m. ET to continue a four-game series at Great American Ball Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Drew Smyly is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. He is 4-3 with a 5.11 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 through 61 2/3 IP over 12 starts.

Current Cincinnati bats own a small-sample .869 OPS against the veteran southpaw.

RHP Vladimir Gutierrez is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. The 25-year-old rookie is making his sixth start. He is 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 across 28 IP.

Gutierrez has thrown over 100 pitches in each of his last three starts. He had some control problems in his last turn and walked 4 in a Saturday start at the San Diego Padres.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Braves at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:10 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Reds -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves +1.5 (-185) | Reds -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Braves 5, Reds 4

Money line (ML)

Gutierrez has benefited from a .247 opponent BABIP. Peg Atlanta as having a lesser record than it should and Cincinnati swinging the other way.

TAKE THE BRAVES (+100).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS on the extra juice in this proposition.

Over/Under (O/U)

Cincinnati opened this series with an MLB-best .829 OPS at home and the Reds play in a home park that favors offense. However, this series is ripe for some contrarian Under betting. That side also benefits from both bullpens figuring as better than what shows in their surface numbers.

BACK THE UNDER 10.5 (-110).

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

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Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (35-38) and Cincinnati Reds (36-36) meet Thursday at 7:10 p.m. ET to kick off a four-game series at Great American Ball Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Jesse Chavez is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. The veteran hurler last pitched in MLB last summer when he logged a 6.88 ERA in 17 relief innings with the Texas Rangers.

Chavez was let go by the Los Angeles Angels in late March but signed a minor-league deal with Atlanta in April. The 37-year-old posted a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over 20 innings across 13 relief appearances at Triple-A Gwinnett. This outing figures to be a spot start and one setting up a bullpen night for the Braves.

RHP Tony Santillan is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. Santillan, a 24-year-old rookie, is making his third start. He is 0-1 with 4 ER, 9 H, 5 BB and 8 K through 7 2/3 innings spanning 2 starts.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Braves at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Reds -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves +1.5 (-175) | Reds -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Braves 5, Reds 4

Money line (ML)

The Braves are coming off a hard-fought four-game split at the New York Mets and are a respectable 6-5 over their last 11 games. The forecast for Atlanta looks better than it did during a 10-13 stretch from mid-May to mid-June, and the Braves were tabbed at 91.5 wins in preseason betting.

The Reds are back home after a long road trip. Cincinnati hit .238/.323/.341 over an odd Milwaukee-to-San Diego-to-Minneapolis voyage from June 14-22.

Almost purely on the leverage of Atlanta having a lesser record than it should and Cincinnati swinging the other way – just a couple games in each case – an ATLANTA (+105) wager is the call here.

Starting pitching usually plays a bigger role in analysis, so a partial-unit amount is suggested. A perhaps road-weary Reds club is leaning a little bit toward bullpen fatigue

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS on the extra juice in this proposition.

Over/Under (O/U)

Cincinnati has an MLB-best .829 OPS at home but this tag is ripe for some contrarian Under betting. The Cincy weather calls for a warm night but relatively low humidity and an inward breeze helping the pitchers.

BACK THE UNDER 10.5 (-110).

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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