Tag: Braves Pirates odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Atlanta Braves (72-40) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (51-63) wrap up a 4-game series Thursday at PNC Park. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 2-1

The Braves scratched out a 6-5 win Wednesday night, taking a 2-1 series lead. Two of the 3 outings in this series have been decided by a single run and the other game was decided by 2 runs.

Atlanta has won 2 in a row after dropping 3 straight outings. The Over has cashed in 5 straight, with the Braves plating 5.0 runs per game (RPG) while conceding 6.4 RPG during the span.

The Pirates have scored 4 or more runs in each of the past 4 games, but they have dropped 2 in a row. The Bucs have coughed up 6 or more runs in 3 straight, and 5 of the past 8 games overall. The Over has cashed in Pittsburgh’s last 3 outings and in 8 of its last 11 contests.

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Braves at Pirates projected starters

RHP Bryce Elder vs. LHP Bailey Falter

Elder (8-3, 3.43 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 126 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 7 R (5 ER), 7 H (2 HR), 3 BB, 3 K in 8-6 road loss vs. Chicago Cubs Saturday
  • 2023 road splits: 4-2, 3.41 ERA (58 IP, 22 ER – 5 HR), .231 opponent batting average (OBA) in 10 starts

Falter (0-7, 4.87 ERA) makes his 9th start and 10th appearance. He has a 1.47 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 in 44 1/3 innings with the Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 2 K in a 3-2 road loss in 10 innings vs. the Milwaukee Brewers Saturday in his team debut
  • 2023 home splits (with the Phillies): 0-2, 5.52 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 9 ER – 3 HR), .267 OBA in 3 starts

Braves at Pirates odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:43 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Braves -210 (bet $210 to win $100) | Pirates +170 (bet $100 to win $170)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (-135) | Pirates +1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Braves at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 8, Pirates 3

Moneyline

The Braves (-210) will cost you over 2 times your potential return, and that’s just too risky in this getaway day game.

However, the pitching advantage is squarely in favor of Atlanta with Elder, as Falter has, well, faltered, in 2023. He is winless in 7 decisions, all with Philadelphia. Falter makes his home debut in Pittsburgh, and it isn’t likely to end well against the high-octane Atlanta offense.

AVOID.

Run line/Against the spread

The BRAVES -1.5 (-135) are a better value on the run line against the winless Falter. Atlanta is 6-3 in the past 9 starts by Elder while winning each of those 6 games by 2 or more runs. So if you like Atlanta and Elder to win, you should also like it to cover the run line.

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Over/Under

OVER 10 (-110) is the lean, ever so slightly.

The Over has cashed in 5 in a row for the Braves, with the Atlanta offense plating 5 or more runs in 7 of the past 8 games. The pitching staff has coughed up 5 or more runs in 5 games in a row, too.

The Over has cashed in 3 in a row for the Pirates, averaging 6.0 runs per game (RPG), while yielding 6.7 RPG during the same span.

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Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Pittsburgh Pirates (51-62) welcome the Atlanta Braves (71-40) to PNC Park Wednesday for the 3rd game of a 4-game series. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: tied 1-1

The Pirates lost 8-6 Tuesday as they failed to build off Monday’s series-opening 7-6 victory. Pittsburgh is 27-29 at home and 6-4 over its last 10 games.

Atlanta has been among the best teams in the majors and sits 10 1/2 games ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East. It is 6-4 over its last 10 and 34-20 on the road this season.

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Braves at Pirates projected starters

LHP Max Fried vs. RHP Quinn Priester

Fried (3-1, 1.69 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 0.97 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 through 32 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 8-0 road win vs. Chicago Cubs Friday
  • 2023 road splits: 3-0, 0.47 ERA (19 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 14 H) in 4 starts

Priester (2-1, 8.69 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.78 WHIP, 6.4 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 19 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 6-4 road win vs. Milwaukee Brewers Friday
  • 2023 home splits: 1-1, 10.45 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 12 ER) in 2 starts

Braves at Pirates odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:06 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Braves -300 (bet $300 to win $100) | Pirates +240 (bet $100 to win $240)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -2.5 (-120) | Pirates +2.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Braves at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 6, Pirates 4

Moneyline

AVOID.

There’s no value in betting on Atlanta (-300) with such steep odds as a road favorite. Similarly, Fried has been fantastic since returning from the IL and squares off against a rookie, so there’s very little interest in calling the upset from Pittsburgh (+240) either.

Run line/Against the spread

The Braves are 21-23 on the run line as road favorites while the Pirates are 20-19 as home underdogs.

This size of spread should help Pittsburgh as well. Atlanta has the 6th-worst covering rate against non-division opponents at 37-46 ATS while Pittsburgh is 41-42 on the run line against non-division foes.

The Braves are 4-2 in Fried’s 6 appearances but would be 3-3 with a spread of 2.5. Considering the season-long records in this scenario, LEAN PIRATES +1.5 (+100) but only for a partial unit.

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Over/Under

BET OVER 9.5 (+100).

If there’s one thing both teams have been good at this season, it is cashing the Over. Atlanta sits 2nd in the majors with a 60-48-3 O/U record, and Pittsburgh has the 6th-best Over record at 59-50-4.

Both the first two games of this series went well north of the total. Pittsburgh has a rookie that has struggled at home on the mound and has gone Over in 5 of its last 7. Atlanta has gone Over in 4 straight and in 5 of its last 6.

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Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (76-48) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (47-75) play the 2nd contest of a 3-game set at PNC Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Braves lead series 5-0

The Braves picked up a 2-1 win against the Bucs in the series opener, and Atlanta is now 12-2 in the last 14 games overall, including 7-0 in the previous 7 road outings.

The Pirates have dropped 3 consecutive games, averaging just 2.33 runs per game during the tailspin. Pittsburgh has dropped 9 of the last 11 games overall, too.

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Braves at Pirates projected starters

LHP Max Fried vs. RHP JT Brubaker

Fried (11-4, 2.60 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 145 1/3 IP.

  • Has a 5-1 record in 0 road starts with a 2.76 ERA and a .216 opponent batting average with 51 K and just 5 BB in 58 2/3 IP
  • Allowed just 1 ER while scattering 8 H with 0 BB and 8 K in 6 IP in June 9 win over the Pirates in Atlanta

Brubaker (3-10, 4.19 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.43 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 120 1/3 IP.

  • Is 3-3 in 9 home starts with a 4.66 ERA and a .272 opponent BA with 41 K in 48 1/3 IP
  • Yielded 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 7 K in 7 IP in June 9 loss at Atlanta

Braves at Pirates odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:36 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Braves -280 (bet $280 to win $100) | Pirates +220 (bet $100 to win $220)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -2.5 (-103) | Pirates +2.5 (-117)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Braves at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 4, Pirates 2

Money line

The Braves (-280) will cost you nearly 3 times your potential return, and that’s risky business, especially considering the visitors posted a narrow 2-1 win as heavy favorites in the series opener.

PASS.

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Run line/Against the spread

The PIRATES +2.5 (-117) are worth a play to cover the run line. The Bucs covered in Monday’s 2-1 setback, and Brubaker has done his best pitching at home this season. Yes, he lost his 1st appearance in Atlanta, but he was able to record a quality start. Expect a closer game than the books expect.

Over/Under

The UNDER 7.5 (-102) is a strong value with 2 decent pitchers on the bump.

The Under connected in Monday’s series opener with just 3 total runs. The Under is 3-0-2 in the last 5 road games for the Braves, while going 18-7-1 in the last 26 tries for Atlanta against the NL Central Division.

The Over has been a frequent happening for the Bucs lately, but the Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings against the Braves.

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Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (75-48) take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (47-74) Monday in the 1st game of a 3-game set at PNC Park. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Atlanta leads 4-0.

The surging Braves come into this one 8-2 in their last 10 after taking 2 of 3 from 1st-place teams in the Houston Astros and New York Mets. Atlanta sits 4 games out in the NL East and is hungry against a team it’s 4-0 against this year. The Braves outscored the Pirates 22-10 in their first series in June.

The Pirates limp in at 2-8 in their last 10 and just 9-21 in the last 30 games. The Cincinnati Reds just took 2 of 3 from them on their home field, and they were outscored 19-6 the last 2 days. The Pirates are just 7-15 against the NL East.

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Braves at Pirates projected starters

RHP Jake Odorizzi vs. RHP Roansy Contreras

Odorizzi (4-5, 4.15 ERA) makes his 16th start of the season. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 73 2/3 IP.

  • He’s 0-2 with 5.93 ERA, 2.05 WHIP and 5.3 K/9 in 3 starts since being  acquired by Atlanta
  • Now 32, his 6.6 K/9 is the lowest of his career of any full season

Contreras (3-3, 4.02 ERA) makes his 11th start of the season. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 56 IP.

  • Allowed 3 ER on 8 H and 1 BB with 7 K in 4 2/3 IP June 10 at Atlanta
  • Doesn’t have much of a home-field advantage with a 4.10 ERA and 1.37 WHIP at home vs. 3.94 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the road

Braves at Pirates odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:52 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Braves -205 (bet $205 to win $100) | Pirates +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (-120) | Pirates +1.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Braves at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 6, Pirates 3

Money line

The Pirates aren’t going to score enough to contend with Atlanta. Contreras has a bright future, and unless he goes 6 scoreless innings and fans 10, the Pirates should lose this one handily. The Braves’ ML is too expensive, and I don’t trust Odorizzi to throw down on the first 5 innings. Let’s go with BRAVES OVER 4.5 TOTAL RUNS (-145).

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Run line/Against the spread

The Braves are fairly priced here, but the price could be steamed up closer to 1st pitch. Of their last 8 wins, 6 of them were by 2 or more runs. All 4 of their wins against Pittsburgh have been by 2 or more this year. Take the BRAVES -1.5 (-120).

Over/Under

Odorizzi hasn’t been good since his arrival, and his peripherals show he’s declining. That said, the Braves should score enough runs to get it done and tip the Over into the winner’s circle. Rain is in the forecast, though, which could throw a wrench into things. Keep an eye on that. The Over is 8-1-1 for the Bucs the last 10 games and 3-1-1 for the Braves over the last 5. Take the OVER 8.5 (-130).

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO).

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Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (41-43) and Pittsburgh Pirates (31-53) will take the field Tuesday night for Game 2 of the series, with first pitch from PNC Park coming at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Ian Anderson is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. He is 5-4 with a 3.35 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 9.1 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 88 2/3 IP over 16 starts.

Anderson hasn’t allowed more than four runs in a single start this season and has surrendered just five runs combined in his last three appearances (18 1/3 innings). He has just one win since May 21, however. He pitched six shutout innings against the Pirates on May 21, a 20-1 win by Atlanta.

RHP Chad Kuhl is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates. He is 2-5 with a 5.16 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 and 5.6 BB/9 in 45 1/3 IP over 10 starts.

Kuhl had a 4.21 ERA in June, lowering his season ERA from 6.41 to 5.16 in his last five starts. In his last start, Kuhl gave up three runs in 4 1/3 innings against the Colorado Rockies after allowing just two runs in his previous 12 innings.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Braves at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:25 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Pirates +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (-110) | Pirates +1.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Braves 5, Pirates 2

Money line (ML)

The Braves got smoked by the Pirates on Monday night to open the series, falling 11-1 on the road. But they’ll have Anderson on the mound tonight, and he hasn’t allowed more than four runs in a single start all year, so he should be their stopper.

With a bounce-back due, I like the BRAVES (-185) to beat the Pirates tonight, particularly with Kuhl getting the ball for Pittsburgh.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Braves had won four of their last five games before Monday’s loss, including a 20-2 win over the Mets on June 30.

Atlanta beat the Pirates 20-1 in Anderson’s start against them on May 21, and while I’m not expecting a blowout of that proportion, I do like Atlanta in this one.

Bet the BRAVES -1.5 (-110) at almost even money on the run line as Anderson is coming off a strong performance against the Mets last week.

Over/Under (O/U)

The Pirates surprisingly carried the total Over 9 runs on Monday night with their 11 runs scored, but for a team that hadn’t scored more than two runs since June 27, they’ll regress to the mean and fall back to earth.

Bet the UNDER 9 (-110) tonight, as the total has gone Under in four of the Braves’ last five road games.

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Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (41-42) and Pittsburgh Pirates (30-53) will open a three-game series Monday night at PNC Park, with the first pitch set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Max Fried is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. He is 5-4 with a 4.16 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 62 2/3 IP over 12 starts.

Fried is 3-1 in his last four starts, allowing three runs or fewer in each appearance. He had a 3.58 ERA in the month of June, striking out 28 in 27 2/3 innings.

Fried has made two starts in his career against the Pirates, allowing six runs in 11 innings with only five strikeouts.

RHP Chase De Jong is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates. He is 0-3 with a 5.65 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 28 2/3 IP over six starts.

De Jong has lost his last three starts, allowing 10 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings pitched across those three games.

In his last start, he gave up five runs on nine hits in only five innings against the Colorado Rockies, an 8-0 loss by Pittsburgh. He has never faced the Braves in his career.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Braves at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:37 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Pirates +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (-120) | Pirates +1.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Braves 5, Pirates 2

Money line (ML)

The Braves have gotten on track a little bit in the last week or so, taking two of three from both the Marlins and Mets since June 29.

The Pirates snapped their six-game losing streak with a 2-0 win over the Brewers on Sunday, but they haven’t scored more than two runs since June 27.

I like the BRAVES (-190) to win on the road tonight against the worst lineup in baseball.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Pirates are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games, struggling to even keep games competitive.

Their 10 total runs in the last seven games is an example of how poorly the Pirates have played offensively, while they’ve also allowed at least six runs five times in their last six games.

Bet the BRAVES -1.5 (-120) to cover the spread and win by a couple of runs.

Over/Under (O/U)

The total has gone Under in seven of the Braves’ last 10 games, limiting their opponents to four or fewer runs in eight of their last nine games. Opponents have only scored nine total runs in Fried’s last four starts, too.

Pittsburgh is unlikely to score more than a few runs, which is why I think the total will go UNDER 9 (-115) tonight.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (41-42) and Pittsburgh Pirates (30-53) will open a three-game series Monday night at PNC Park, with the first pitch set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Max Fried is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. He is 5-4 with a 4.16 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 62 2/3 IP over 12 starts.

Fried is 3-1 in his last four starts, allowing three runs or fewer in each appearance. He had a 3.58 ERA in the month of June, striking out 28 in 27 2/3 innings.

Fried has made two starts in his career against the Pirates, allowing six runs in 11 innings with only five strikeouts.

RHP Chase De Jong is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates. He is 0-3 with a 5.65 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 28 2/3 IP over six starts.

De Jong has lost his last three starts, allowing 10 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings pitched across those three games.

In his last start, he gave up five runs on nine hits in only five innings against the Colorado Rockies, an 8-0 loss by Pittsburgh. He has never faced the Braves in his career.

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Braves at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:37 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Pirates +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (-120) | Pirates +1.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Braves 5, Pirates 2

Money line (ML)

The Braves have gotten on track a little bit in the last week or so, taking two of three from both the Marlins and Mets since June 29.

The Pirates snapped their six-game losing streak with a 2-0 win over the Brewers on Sunday, but they haven’t scored more than two runs since June 27.

I like the BRAVES (-190) to win on the road tonight against the worst lineup in baseball.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Pirates are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games, struggling to even keep games competitive.

Their 10 total runs in the last seven games is an example of how poorly the Pirates have played offensively, while they’ve also allowed at least six runs five times in their last six games.

Bet the BRAVES -1.5 (-120) to cover the spread and win by a couple of runs.

Over/Under (O/U)

The total has gone Under in seven of the Braves’ last 10 games, limiting their opponents to four or fewer runs in eight of their last nine games. Opponents have only scored nine total runs in Fried’s last four starts, too.

Pittsburgh is unlikely to score more than a few runs, which is why I think the total will go UNDER 9 (-115) tonight.

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