Tag: Braves Padres odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Atlanta Braves (52-42) and San Diego Padres (50-48) close out their 3-game series on Sunday. First pitch from Petco Park is at 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Padres lead 4-2

The Braves took the opening game of the series 6-1 on Friday but were shut out 4-0 on Saturday. They have lost 3 of their last 4 and are 6-7 in their last 13 games.

The Padres snapped a 5-game skid with the 4-0 win. They have lost 2 consecutive series.

Braves at Padres projected starters

LHP Chris Sale vs. RHP Randy Vasquez

Sale (12-3, 2.74 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 0.94 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 11.7 K/9 in 105 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 9 K in 6-2 road win over Arizona Diamondbacks on Tuesday
  • Has 6 consecutive starts allowing 2 or fewer runs
  • Is 3-0 with 1.17 ERA in 3 career starts vs. Padres
  • Threw 7 scoreless innings in 3-0 win over Padres on May 20

Vasquez (2-4, 4.66 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.60 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 in 58 IP.

  • Last start: No decision, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 10-8 home win over Diamondbacks on July 5
  • Allowed 2 or fewer runs un 4 of last 5 outings
  • Was on losing end of start against Sale and Braves on May 20
  • Is 0-2 with 4.82 ERA in 2 career starts vs. Braves

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Braves at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:37 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Braves -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Padres +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+100) | Padres +1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Braves at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 6, Padres 4

Moneyline

The Braves are 12-5 in Sale’s starts this season and have won 4 of his last 5 outings. Opponents have scored 3 or fewer runs in 6 consecutive of Sale’s outings and in 14 of his 17 starts.

The Padres have won Vasquez’ last 3 starts and 4 of his last 5.

The Padres are 26-28 against teams with winning records like the Braves.

Expect the Braves to take the finale but don’t bet them at -175 when there is better value going with the run line.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

All 12 of the Braves’ wins with Sale pitching have been by 2 or more runs.

The Padres’ last 8 losses and 11 of their last 12 losses have been by 2 or more runs.

BET BRAVES -1.5 (+100).

Over/Under

The last 4 starts for Vasquez have had totals of more than 7 runs.

The Braves have had their last 3 games fail to reach 8 total runs but the 3 games previous to that had 8 or more.

Only 2 of the 6 games between the 2 teams have had 8 or more total runs this season.

BET OVER 7.5 (-110).

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Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Atlanta Braves (52-41) visit the San Diego Padres (49-48) Saturday night. First pitch from Petco Park is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Padres lead 3-2.

The Braves snapped a 2-game losing streak Friday with a 6-1 win over the Padres while covering as +104 road underdogs. DH Marcell Ozuna led the way on offense with 2 RBIs courtesy of 2 solo home runs while RHP Spencer Schwellenbach allowed 1 ER in 7 innings to pick up the win.

San Diego has lost 5 games in a row after Friday’s loss while failing to cover as a -113 home favorite. 3B Manny Machado had the Padres only RBI while RHP Matt Waldron allowed 4 ER in 7 innings to pick up the loss.

Braves at Padres projected starters

RHP Reynaldo Lopez vs. RHP Dylan Cease

Lopez (7-2, 1.71 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 through 89 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 6-0 win against Philadelphia Phillies Sunday.
  • Career vs. Padres: 0-0. 2.45 ERA (7 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 7 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 2 games, 1 start.

Cease (7-8, 4.21 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 11.4 K/9 through 109 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 9-1 loss against Arizona Diamondbacks Sunday.
  • Career vs. Braves: 1-0, 6 ERA (9 IP, 6 ER), 12 H, 6 BB, 11 K in 2 starts — last outing in May of 2024.

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Braves at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:25 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Braves +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Padres -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves +1.5 (-200) | Padres -1.5 (+165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Braves at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Padres 3

Moneyline

BET BRAVES (+110).

Atlanta has won 5 of its last 7 games. It has scored 5 or more runs in 7 of its last 8 while allowing 4 or fewer runs in 8 of its last 10. The Padres are just 3-7 in their last 10 including 0-5 in their last 5 overall which have all been at home. Their offense has struggled, scoring 3 or fewer runs in each of their last 4 games while they have allowed 6 or more runs in 5 of their last 6.

Run line/Against the spread

There is no value on the run line in this matchup.

PASS.

Over/Under

BET OVER 7 (-120).

Atlanta has scored 5 or more runs in 7 of its last 8 games while San Diego has allowed 4 or more runs in 8 of its last 10. Both teams have a better-than-average ability to generate offense, and with a lower line, the Over is the best bet in this matchup.

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Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Atlanta Braves (51-41) and San Diego Padres (49-47) open a 3-game set at Petco Park Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Padres lead 3-1

The Braves split a 4-game set at the Arizona Diamondbacks Monday through Thursday. They lost 1-0 as -111 favorites in the series finale as the Under (8) easily hit.

The Padres are coming off back-to-back losses to the Seattle Mariners in San Diego. After dropping the Tuesday opener 8-3, they lost 2-0 as -143 favorites Wednesday as the Under (8) cashed.

Braves at Padres projected starters

RHP Spencer Schwellenbach vs. RHP Randy Vásquez

Schwellenbach (2-4, 5.02 ERA) makes his 8th start. The rookie has a 1.27 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 37 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 5-1 home victory vs. Philadelphia Phillies Saturday
  • 2024 road stats: 0-2, 6.89 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.47 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 in 3 starts
  • Never faced Padres before

Vásquez (2-4, 4.66 ERA) makes his 13th start. The rookie has a 1.60 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 in 58 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 10-8 home win vs. Diamondbacks Friday
  • 2024 home stats: 1-2, 3.41 ERA (31 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.42 WHIP, 5.7 K/9 in 6 starts
  • 2024 vs. Braves: 0-1, 4.50 ERA (6 IP, 3 ER), 10 H, 0 BB, 2 K in 3-0 road loss May 20
  • Career vs. Braves: 0-2, 4.82 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.61 WHIP, 4.8 K/9 in 2 starts

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Braves at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:26 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Braves -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Padres +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+140) | Padres +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Braves at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 4, Braves 3

Moneyline

The PADRES (+100) have won 3 of the 4 meetings between these teams this season and will be extra motivated to bounce back after losing 4 straight home games by multiple runs. Vásquez has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 3 straight home starts, while Schwellenbach has given up 4 or more in 2 of 3 road outings this season.

BET PADRES (+100).

Run line/Against the spread

San Diego +1.5 (-165) should hit, but you’re paying more vig at this number, which makes it harder to stay profitable long term.

PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.

Over/Under

Vásquez has been much better at home in his career, with a 2.96 ERA at home compared to 5.11 on the road. The 25-year-old righty has allowed a total of just 3 runs over his last 3 home starts (16 1/3 IP), and the Padres offense has scored 3 or fewer runs in 3 straight games.

BET UNDER 8.5 (-115).

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Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Atlanta Braves (14-4) face the San Diego Padres (8-11) Wednesday looking for a 3-game series sweep. First pitch at Petco Park is 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 3-3

After a 2-0 win on Monday, the Braves blew out the Padres 8-1 on Tuesday night to win its 8th consecutive game. Starter Spencer Strider carried a no-hitter into the 6th inning and had  9 strikeouts for the 4th straight start. He’s had at least 9 Ks in 8 consecutive starts dating to last season.

The Padres have lost 3 straight games and 6 of their last 7. They have scored only 1 run in their last 27 innings and have been held to 2 or fewer runs in 6 of their last 9 games.

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Braves at Padres projected starters

RHP Charlie Morton vs. RHP Nick Martinez

Morton (2-1, 3.86 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.71 WHIP, 7 BB and 12 K in 16 1/3 IP.

  • Took the loss in a 4-1 defeat to the Padres April 8: 5 IP, 6 H, 3R, 3 BB, 6 K
  • Has allowed exactly 3 runs in every start this season

Martinez (0-1, 5.60 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 10 BB and 11 K in 17 2/3 IP.

  • Had no-decision in 5-4 win over Atlanta April 7: 4 2/3 IP, 4 R, 4 H, 5 BB, 4K
  • Allowed 3 or more runs in all 3 starts this season

Braves at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:54 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Braves -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Padres +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+135) | Padres +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Braves at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 4, Padres 3

Moneyline

The Braves are rolling, having won 8 games in a row and they have scored 5-plus runs in 7 of those 8 wins.

The Padres have only 1 run in their last 3 games aand have scored no more than 2 runs in 5 of their last 7 contests. They have dropped 6 pf their last 7 at Petco Park.

BET BRAVES (-120).

Run line/Against the spread

I don’t like the Braves to cover the run line in part because they have five 1-run games in their last 9 wins, but their moneyline is a better value than betting the Padres +1.5 (-165).

PASS.

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Over/Under

Only 1 of Atlanta’s last 9 games has had fewer than 8 runs and that was Monday’s series opener. However, 6 of San Diego’s last 9 games had 7 or fewer runs.

BET UNDER 9 (-115).

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Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (5-5) and the San Diego Padres (5-5) finish off a four-game set at Petco Park on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Atlanta grabbed a 2-1 series lead with another 5-2 victory over San Diego Saturday. Braves SP Ian Anderson went 5 2/3 IP, allowing just 1 ER on 2 H and 1 BB with 7 K. Braves 1B Matt Olson was 3-for-4 with a solo home run and pushed his batting average (BA) up to .412.

Braves at Padres: Projected starters

RHP Bryce Elder vs. RHP Yu Darvish

Elder (1-0, 4.76 ERA) earned a win in Atlanta’s 16-4 beatdown of the Washington Nationals Tuesday. He threw 5 2/3 IP, allowing 3 ER on 6 H with 0 BB and 4 K. This is Elder’s first season in the MLB.

Darvish (0-1, 10.57 ERA) got shelled his last time out in San Diego’s 13-2 loss at the San Francisco Giants Tuesday, surrendering 9 ER in just 1 2/3 IP on 8 H and 2 BB with 2 K. Darvish’s form was the polar opposite Opening Day when he held the Arizona Diamondback hitless over 6 IP April 7.

  • 2021 vs. Braves: Loss, 2-1, on 5 2/3 IP with 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 3 K July 20.
  • vs. Braves on the current roster: 2.24 FIP with a .159 BA, .231 wOBA, .277 expected slugging percentage, 30.4 K% and 81.4 mph exit velocity in 92 plate appearances.

Braves at Padres odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:09 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Braves +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Padres -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves +1.5 (-190) | Padres -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Braves at Padres prediction and picks

Prediction

Braves 4, Padres 3

Money line

BET the BRAVES (+110) because they have been better in the three most important phases of the game. Atlanta has a higher WAR than San Diego in both starting and relief pitching and hitting, according to FanGraphs.

There’s also reverse line movement headed in Atlanta’s direction. The Braves opened at +125 ML underdogs have been lowered down to the current price even though more than three-fourths of the action is on the Padres, per Pregame.com.

It’s a red flag whenever sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper, especially with Darvish on the mound because most casual baseball fans view Darvish as a “top of the rotation” starter.

However, aside from Darvish’s brilliant Opening Day performance, he’s been terrible since the MLB enacted the sticky substance policy June 21, 2021. From there on out last season, Darvish was 1-9 with a 6.25 ERA and got pummeled by San Francisco earlier this week.

BET the BRAVES (+110).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS because the Braves +1.5 (-190) is a little out of my price range and I am not going to chase the value of Atlanta’s alternate RL with the rookie hurler on the mound.

For what it’s worth, Atlanta is 31-13 RL as a road underdog since the beginning of last season and San Diego 32-37 RL as a home favorite.

Over/Under

Slight LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (-125), if at all, because the oddsmakers are trying to entice more pro-Over money but heavily juicing the Under.

This is a Pros vs. Joe’s scenario in the betting market because more money is on the Under but more bets have been placed on the Over.

Typically, you want to follow the money since the professionals put up more dough than the average Joe so the cash column is considered the sharp side.

However, it’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (-125) because I’m not high on either starter and there’s a ton of firepower in both lineups.

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (4-3) host the Atlanta Braves (3-4) Thursday for the start of a 4-game set at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Atlanta lost the rubber match of a 3-game home set versus Washington Wednesday 3-1, but the Braves outscored the Nationals 19-18 in the series.

San Diego dropped its 3-game series at the San Francisco Giants earlier this week despite winning the opener. The Padres were outscored 17-7.

The Braves beat the Padres 4-2 in last year’s regular-season series, outscoring San Diego 27-21.

Braves at Padres: Projected starters

RHP Charlie Morton vs. RHP Joe Musgrove 

Morton (1-0, 3.38 ERA) picked up a win in his first start of 2022, beating the visiting Cincinnati Reds Friday. He threw 5 1/3 IP with 2 ER on 2 H, 1 BB and 5 K in a 7-6 victory.

  • vs. Padres on the current roster: 5.28 FIP with a .235 batting average (BA), .349 wOBA, .591 expected-slugging percentage (xSLG), 20.0 K% and 90.2 mph exit velocity (EV) in 60 plate appearances (PA).

Musgrove (0-0, 3.00 ERA) got a no-decision in San Diego’s 5-2 victory at the Arizona Diamondbacks Saturday. He went 6 IP, surrendering 2 ER on 5 H with 0 BB and 8 K.

  • 2021 vs. Braves: No-decision across 5 IP with 3 ER on 7 H, 3 BB and 9 K in 1 home start.
  • vs. Braves on the current roster: 5.34 FIP with a .333 BA, .429 wOBA, .503 xSLG, 19.4 K% and 91.3 mph EV in 72 PA.

Braves at Padres odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:47 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Braves -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Padres -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+160) | Padres +1.5 (-200)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Braves at Padres prediction and picks

Prediction

Braves 6, Padres 2

Money line

GIMME the BRAVES (-110) for 1 unit because there’s reverse-line movement (RLM) headed towards Atlanta and I give the Braves the edge in the pitching matchup.

More than 60% of the money is on San Diego, according to Pregame.com, but Atlanta has gone from a slight underdog on the opener to a pick ’em. It’s a red flag whenever sportsbooks make the more popular team cheaper.

Morton should have an easy time maneuvering around San Diego’s lineup, which is missing SS Fernando Tatis Jr. (out with a fractured wrist). The curveball is Morton’s second-most thrown pitch and only three Padres had a plus-run value versus curveballs last season, according to Statcast.

Atlanta’s bullpen has looked far better than the Padres’ thus far. The Braves have the fourth-best bullpen FIP and the Padres have the fourth-worst, according to FanGraphs.

ATLANTA (-110) is my favorite wager in this game.

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Run line/Against the spread

SPRINKLE on the BRAVES -1.5 (+160) since the payout is so chunky, Atlanta could add to its lead versus San Diego’s struggling bullpen.

Plus, we are seeing the RLM in the RL markets as well (per Pregame.com) since the Padres +1.5 (-200) are the more popular side, but the line is moving away from San Diego.

Again, my favorite bet is Atlanta’s ML but there’s some value in BRAVES -1.5 (+160). 

Over/Under

PASS.

This 7.5-run total should be too low considering both lineups’ firepower. But the Over/Under is 4-11 in the last Braves-Padres 15 meetings, Petco is a pitcher-friendly park and we have two “top of the rotation” starters on the hill.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (78-76) host the Atlanta Braves (81-72) Saturday for the second of their three-game series at Petco Park with the first pitch scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Technically, these teams split a doubleheader Friday, but the first game was a makeup for a July 21st meeting that was suspended due to weather in the bottom of the 5th.

San Diego won the makeup game 6-5 then Atlanta took the second game 4-0 behind a complete-game shutout from starting LHP Max Fried.

Season series: Tied 2-2.

RHP Huascar Ynoa is Atlanta’s projected starter. Ynoa is 4-5 with a 3.43 ERA (81 1/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 across 15 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: No-decision in Atlanta’s 11-4 victory at the Arizona Diamondbacks with 4 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 2 K.
  • 2021 road splits: 1-3 with a 4.46 ERA (36 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.27 WHIP and 3.1 K/BB in seven starts and one bullpen outing.

RHP Vince Velasquez takes the hill for the Padres. Velasquez is 3-8 with a 6.23 ERA (86 2/3 IP, 60 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 over 19 starts and four relief appearances for the Padres and Philadelphia Phillies.

  • Last outing: Loss, 8-6, with 1 IP, 2 ER (3 R), 1 BB and 2 K Wednesday vs. the San Francisco Giants.
  • Velasquez is 0-1 in two starts against Atlanta this season with an 8.22 ERA (7 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 7 H, 5 BB and 9 K.
  • vs. Braves on the current roster: 5.19 FIP with a .289 batting average, .396 wOBA, .386 expected slugging percentage, 28.3 K% and 90.9 mph exit velocity in 145 plate appearances.

Braves at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:15 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Padres +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+130) | Padres +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Prediction

Braves 7, Padres 4

Money line (ML)

I’ll take the bait and BET the BRAVES (-120) for 1 unit despite the suspicious “reverse line movement”. According to Pregame.com, nearly 60% of the cash and 80% of the action is on the Braves, but oddsmakers have made Atlanta’s money line cheaper despite the one-way action.

Typically, I’d avoid falling into this trap, but I’m out on the Padres for the rest of this season. San Diego’s descent out of playoff contention isn’t getting nearly the coverage it deserves.

The Padres have won just 10 of their last 30 games and are 7 games back of the second NL Wild Card seed with eight games left. Also, the Braves are playing better in the three most important phases of baseball: Starting and relief pitching and hitting.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the BRAVES -1.5 (+130) for a tiny wager because Atlanta’s money line is a wiser wager. But, the Braves are 25-21 ATS as a road favorite and the Padres are 4-9 ATS as a home underdog.

More importantly, San Diego’s bullpen has regressed heavily this month and ranks in the bottom-10 in advanced pitching stats such as ERA, xFIP, home run per nine-inning rate and hard-hit rate.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS because I’m not a fan of either starting pitcher, but these teams have a combined 16-17 O/U record when these starters take the mound.

Also, the presumed sharp side of the market is betting the Under, and the public is betting the Over. I don’t want to fade the money and follow the crowd in this spot.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (80-71) stop by Petco Park Park Friday to begin a three-game series with the San Diego Padres (77-75). First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Braves had their four-game win streak broken after a 6-4 loss at the Arizona Diamondbacks Thursday. Atlanta’s magic number to clinch the NL East is 9 and is currently 2 games ahead of the second-place Philadelphia Phillies.

San Diego snapped a five-game losing skid Thursday with a 7-6 extra-innings victory against the San Francisco Giants. However, the Padres have fallen out of playoff contention as they sit 6 games back of the St. Louis Cardinals for the second NL Wild Card berth.

Season series: Tied 1-1.

LHP Max Fried is on the hill for the Braves. Fried is 12-7 with a 3.31 ERA (149 2/3 IP, 55 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 26 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 3-0, with 7 IP, 3 H, 1 BB and 5 K Sunday at the San Francisco Giants.
  • Second half splits: 6-2 with a 1.99 ERA (77 IP, 17 ER), 0.94 WHIP and 4.8 K/BB in 12 starts.

RHP Reiss Knehr is San Diego’s projected starter. Knehr is 1-0 with a 3.93 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 13 H, 13 BB and 13 K across two starts and six relief appearances in his rookie season.

Braves at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:19 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Padres +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+115) | Padres +1.5 (-140)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Prediction

Braves 7, Padres 2

Money line (ML)

GIMME the BRAVES (-140) for 1 unit because they have something to play for still while the Padres are nearly eliminated from playoff contention.

Fried has been locked in since the All-Star Game and San Diego’s lineup is terrible against left-handed pitching.  Padres hitters collectively rank 22nd in wRC+ and 23rd in wOBA vs. lefties.

The percentages are in Atlanta’s favor in this spot as the Braves are 31-14 overall as road favorites and the Padres are 4-8 as home underdogs. Atlanta’s lineup ranks 10th or better in hard-hit rate, wRC+, wOBA and BB/K on the road.

This is both a sharp and public play that has resulted in Atlanta’s money line steamed up from a -131 consensus favorite on the opener to the current number.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Braves -1.5 (+115) because I certainly think they’ll win by margin in this spot and Atlanta is 24-21 ATS as a road favorite while San Diego is 4-8 ATS as a home underdog.

However, I’m going to stay away because I made my buy-price for Atlanta’s run line +130 vs. San Diego and won’t partake in the Braves -1.5 (+115).

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-107) for a small wager even though the sharp side of the market is backing the Under, Fried has been dealing since the beginning of August and the Under cashing in nine of the past 11 Braves-Padres meetings.

The reasons why I “lean” Over in this spot are that San Diego’s bullpen has really struggled in September – Padres relievers are bottom 10 in ERA, xFIP and SIERA this month. Also, the Padres have scored at least 5 runs in the last four games.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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