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The Atlanta Braves (54-48) and New York Mets (55-48) play the 3rd game of a 4-game series Saturday. First pitch from Citi Field is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mets lead 5-3
After winning the Thursday opener 3-2, the Mets won 8-4 as -125 favorites in the 2nd game of the series Friday as the Over (8) hit.
Mets RHP Kodai Senga looked terrific in his season debut, allowing just 2 earned runs and striking out 9, but exited with a calf strain in the 5th inning. DH J.D. Martinez went 3-for-4 with a grand slam in the 3rd inning, helping the Mets move past the Braves in the NL Wild Card race. Mets 3B Mark Vientos and C Francisco Alvarez also hit long balls for New York, which is 28-26 at Citi Field and 52-51 against the spread (ATS) overall.
Braves RHP Charlie Morton allowed 7 runs (5 earned) in just 2 2/3 IP. Atlanta lost despite getting 2 HRs from RF Adam Duvall and another from DH Marcell Ozuna. The Braves are 24-27 on the road this season and 44-58 ATS overall.
Braves at Mets projected starters
RHP Spencer Schwellenbach vs. RHP Tylor Megill
Schwellenbach (3-5, 4.62 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 50 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 6-2 home defeat against St. Louis Cardinals Sunday
- 2024 road splits: 1-2, 5.16 ERA (22 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 in 4 starts
- Never faced Mets before
Megill (2-4, 5.08 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.44 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 in 39 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 9-6 home defeat against Houston Astros June 29
- 2024 home splits: 1-2, 3.46 ERA (66 IP, 10 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 11.1 K/9 in 5 starts
- Career vs Braves: 1-3, 4.79 ERA (41 1/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 in 9 appearances (8 starts), including 0-2 with 6.32 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 11 ER) in 3 starts last year
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Braves at Mets odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 11:35 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Braves -108 (bet $108 to win $100) | Mets -108 (bet $108 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Braves -1.5 (+150) | Mets +1.5 (-182)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Braves at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 6, Braves 4
Moneyline
BET METS (-108).
You’ve got 2 teams going in different directions at the moment. I’m going to ride the momentum with New York, which has won 5 straight and 6 of its 8 games since the All-Star break. Meanwhile, the Braves have lost 6 straight, allowing 6.5 runs per game over that stretch.
Philadelphia is also the highest-scoring team at home on the season at 5.37 runs per game, per Teamrankings.com. It hits .263 and has a 3.31 team ERA at Citizens Bank.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I’ve got my money on the moneyline, and I’ll stay away from the run line.
Over/Under
PASS.
My lean is the Over as you can tell from my score prediction, but I’m not sold enough to make it my official recommendation. These 2 teams are 10-10 O/U in their last 20 games combined. In their last 10 meetings, they are 4-6 to the Over, and they have split the 1st 2 games of this series.
I lean to the Over because of the pitchers. Megill has allowed at least 3 earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts; there will be runs scored in this game.
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