The Atlanta Braves (72-41) and New York Mets (52-62) begin a 4-game series at Citi Field Friday. First pitch is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Mets and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Braves lead 5-1
The Braves fell 7-5 Thursday as they slipped to 3-4 through 7 games of an 11-game road trip. Atlanta has outscored its opponents 43-39 over that span despite the losing record. Atlanta is 22-6 against the NL East this season.
New York kicked off a 10-game homestand by taking 2 of 3 games against the Chicago Cubs, including a 4-3 win Wednesday. They have been outscored by the Braves 42-32 across 6 games this season. The Mets are 29-24 at Citi Field on the season and are 20 1/2 games back of the Braves in the division.
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Braves at Mets projected starters
RHP Charlie Morton vs. RHP Tylor Megill
Morton (10-10, 3.86 ERA) will make his 23rd start. He has a 1.44 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 123 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 4 K in 6-4 road loss vs. Chicago Cubs Sunday
- 2023 away splits: 5-5, 3.82 ERA (61 1/3 IP, 26 ER), .269 OBA in 11 starts
- 2023 vs. Mets: 0-1, 7.20 ERA (10 IP, 8 ER), 1.70 WHIP in 2 starts
Megill (6-5, 5.45 ERA) will make his 17th start. He has a 1.68 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 76 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 9 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 7-3 road loss vs. Baltimore Orioles Saturday
- 2023 home splits: 4-1, 2.79 ERA (38 2/3 IP, 12 ER), .216 OBA in 7 starts
- 2023 vs. Braves: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 5-3 home loss on May 1
Braves at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:39 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Braves -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Mets +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (-115) | Mets +1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Braves at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 4, Mets 3
Moneyline
AVOID.
The Braves (-175) should bounce back in this game against their division rivals. They have owned the Mets this season but I don’t want to put more than a unit and a half to win back one.
Run line/Against the spread
BET METS +1.5 (-110).
While I predicted Atlanta to win the game, I am not confident they will cover the spread.
McGill has not lost a start at Citi Field since May 6th while Morton has been knocked around for 9 earned runs over his last 8 road innings pitched. Those trends tell me to jump on New York in this one.
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Over/Under
BET OVER 9.5 (-110).
These two teams have gone over this run total in 4 of their last 5 meetings. Morton and McGill have allowed at least 4 earned runs in 3 of their last 4 starts.
Atlanta averages the 2nd most runs scored per game on the road in the MLB (5.40). The Braves have also scored 7 runs per game on average against the Mets this season.
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