Tag: BPI

Sooners have second toughest remaining schedule according to ESPN’s BPI

According to ESPN’s BPI metric, Sooners have the second toughest remaining schedule in the country.

While the Oklahoma Sooners couldn’t come out on top against 7th-ranked Texas to close out 2022, Oklahoma enters the year 2023 with ample opportunities to bolster its resume and solidify itself as an NCAA tournament team.

Per ESPN’s BPI metric, the Oklahoma Sooners have the nation’s second-toughest schedule remaining.

BPI is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is looking at current stats, schedules, and projections to calculate it.

Every Big 12 team is in the top 10. The major takeaway is that the Big 12 is far and away the toughest basketball conference in the country.

 

Oklahoma’s Big 12 journey is about to heat up. The only non-conference game they have remaining will be against a top-10 Alabama Crimson Tide team as a part of the Big 12-SEC Challenge.

In this predictive model, Oklahoma finishes somewhere between 16 to 17 wins and fourteen losses. Their projected conference record lands somewhere around 7-11. With all that taken into account, they have less than a 1% chance of winning the Big 12.

While that seems less than ideal, Oklahoma has road trips to Baylor, Texas, Kansas, and Iowa State still on its plate. All four squads are ranked, with Kansas being the highest at No. 3 nationally. A 2-2 split in those road games is the most ideal outcome and would give Oklahoma plenty of quality wins for their NCAA Tournament resume.

Taking care of business at home also matters, given the circumstances. There won’t be any easy games on the conference schedule, and while it holds well for the league come selection time, it also means Oklahoma can’t have lapses or multi-game losing streaks. Coming up just short against No. 6 Texas may not feel like a big loss, but letting that one slip away hurts. Opening Big 12 play with a win over one of the best teams in the country would have provided a huge boost to the Sooners’ resume.

Porter Moser’s team came up short last year in large part because of their work in the conference. This year an early loss to Sam Houston State in the first game of the season looks terrible on Oklahoma’s resume. So finishing as high in the conference as they can be the best way to push that loss further away from how the committee views Oklahoma.

Kansas, the standard bearer and reigning national champion, has the second-highest probability (21.7%) of winning the regular season title behind Oklahoma’s biggest rivals, Texas, who sits at 68.3 %. This predictive model believes the Big 12 is a two-team race.

While that may true, all the Sooners can do is lock in and try and steal a few games against some of the nation’s best competition.

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Where Florida stands on ESPN’s Basketball Power Index ahead of conference play

The Gators might be ranked higher than you’d expect on ESPN’s Basketball Power Index ahead of SEC play.

As conference play begins for the Florida Gators men’s basketball team, the Gators sit a bit higher on ESPN’s Basketball Power Index than many might expect. The Gators are No. 39 on the BPI rankings and will challenge Auburn, the No. 21 ranked team, Wednesday night.

Florida actually moved up a spot since the last update, meaning the nine-point loss suffered to Oklahoma last Tuesday actually helped Florida’s case. Interestingly, the Sooners moved down a spot to sit right above Florida at No. 38.

A closer look at the offensive and defensive BPI shows that Florida is a relatively balanced team. A 4.4 offensive grade and 4.0 defensive grade are both consistent with Florida’s overall rankings, whereas some teams are strong in one area and not the other.

“BPI is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward,” according to ESPN. That means Florida is roughly eight points above average, which matches up with the team consistenly beating teams ranked lower than them.

With SEC play beginning, Florida has a chance to prove itself against higher-ranked teams. Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee and Mississippi State are all ranked ahead of Florida on the BPI and have significantly better records.

After Florida clashes with Aubrun on Wednesday, the Gators face Texas A&M, Georgia and LSU. Getting wins over those programs may not boost Florida’s ranking that much, but they might balance out a close loss to Auburn.

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Where Florida stands on the Men’s College Basketball Power Index after Week 3

Over the past week, Florida men’s basketball has fallen 17 spots in the college basketball power index provided by ESPN.

Florida didn’t fair well at the Phil Knight Legacy tournament in Portland, Oregon, going 1-2 against Xavier, Oregon State and West Virginia, and its ranking on ESPN’s Men’s College Basketball Power Index (BPI) reflects that.

A week ago, Florida was ranked just inside the top 25 at No. 24 following a 3-1 start to the season that featured a signature win over rival Florida State. That win has gotten worse with time as the Seminoles now stand at 1-7 on the season, and Florida’s biggest source of production on offense, [autotag]Colin Castleton[/autotag], has gone cold from the field.

A 29-point loss to WVU on Sunday saw Florida fall to No. 41 on the BPI. The Gators’ defense is the biggest source of concern right now. Guards are free to let it rain from three with how weak Florida is on the perimeter, and things get bad down low when Castleton doesn’t have the size advantage on his opponent. ESPN gives Florida’s defense a BPI grade of 2.4, which puts UF at No. 62 among college teams.

The offense is a bit better with a 4.4 grade at No. 28 overall, but Sunday’s blowout loss to the Mountaineers shows just how bad this team can be if Castleton isn’t scoring 20-plus points per game for it.

Moving forward, Florida has a chance to improve before facing another big test. The Gators close out the month of November with a game against Florida A&M and then host Stetson to open December. Connecticut comes to town on Dec. 7 and is currently ranked No. 8 in the country, so that’s the next major game on the schedule.

Beware of Stetson, though. The Hatter opened up the season with a win over FSU and have taken down USF on the road as well. If there’s another trap game on the books for Florida during the non-conference slate, this is it.

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Auburn’s tournament win probability per the Basketball Power Index

What the metrics are saying about Auburn’s chances in March Madness.

In just over 48 hours the Auburn Tigers will be back on the hardwood looking to erase the memory of their painful loss in the SEC Tournament.

The No. 1 seed was quickly bounced by the Texas A&M Aggies after the Tigers were ice cold from the floor in the first half. They made it interesting late thanks to the play of Wendell Green Jr and Jabari Smith, but it was all for not.

That game doesn’t matter now, but bad losses can linger into the next game. On Friday they will look to start their journey as they look for six-straight wins to secure the NCAA national championship. ESPN recently released their win probabilities for the March Madness tournament. Here is how it all shakes out for War Eagle.

Basketball Power Index Probability

Round 2nd Round Sweet 16 Elite Eight Final Four Champ Game Champs
Probability 93.5% 76.5% 51.3% 26.7% 11.7% 4.9%
Ranking No. 11 No. 7 No. 3 No. 5 No. 8 No. 8

Based on the numbers from the BPI, it is basically a coin flip for the Auburn men’s basketball team to make it to the Elite Eight. Their path to the Final Four would likely include wins over USC in the Round of 32, Wisconsin in the Sweet 16, and Kansas in the Elite Eight. BPI has their chances at slightly better than a one in four shot.

With the third-best win probability, the computers clearly favor the Tigers to get past the likely matchup with the Badgers in the Sweet 16. To do so, they will need to find a way to limit the damage from Wisconsin guard Johnny Davis. He is averaging 19.7 points and 8.2 rebounds on a nightly basis.

Auburn will be back on the court on Friday as they look to take down in-state foe Jacksonville State in the Round of 64. Under Bruce Pearl, Auburn has made it out of the first round on both occasions. The Tigers could go three-for-three this year.

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Florida basketball’s final BPI numbers for 2021-22 regular season

Here’s how the BPI shakes out for Florida after the conclusion of the regular season.

Florida basketball wrapped up its 2021-22 schedule with a home loss to the Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday, bringing a frustrating regular season to a close. With their NCAA Tournament chances on the bubble, the Gators failed to capitalize on an opportunity to improve their standing with the selection committee ahead of the Southeastern Conference Tournament.

One of the metrics that are useful in sizing up teams against their peers come March is ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, which is, “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward.” The BPI presents the data in terms of how many points a team is above or below the national average.

The numbers for Florida following the loss to Kentucky are not particularly encouraging. The Gators’ 9.8 rating is currently ranked No. 40 — which is a bit better than their No. 53 spot in the NET rankings — sandwiched between the Oklahoma Sooners at No. 39 and Oklahoma State Cowboys at No. 41.

Florida’s 19-12 overall record is better than two of the teams above it, but that is mitigated by its No. 48 ranking in the strength of record metric. Interestingly, BPI’s projected win-loss for the Gators was 19.6-12.4, virtually nailing the numbers there, though keep in mind the data does update throughout the season.

Finally, BPI gives Florida a 22.3% chance of reaching the Round of 32, 5.6% chance for Sweet 16, 1.6% for Elite Eight, 0.4% for Final Four and a 0.1% chance of making the championship game. However, the chances of winning it all are listed at 0% — that is assuming the Gators even make it to the Big Dance, of course.

The last chance for the Orange and Blue to make its March Madness case starts on Thursday against the Texas A&M Aggies at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida, with tipoff scheduled for noon EST.

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CBS Sports writers pick Tennessee as “Arkansas is due for a dud” against Vols

ESPN and CBS are both picking against the Razorbacks on Saturday against Tennessee.

At this point of the year, it’s no surprise that ESPN’s Basketball Power Index has Arkansas as an underdog. The Razorbacks have been projected by the algorithm to lose three of their last four.

Instead, the Hogs have won each of their last five and 14 out of their last 15.

Arkansas will play Tennessee, a team the Razorbacks beat two weeks ago at Bud Walton Arena, on the road in the regular-season finale on Saturday at 11 a.m. CBS Sports writers Matt Norlander and Gary Parrish each picked Tennessee to win the return game.

“Tennessee has one loss in five weeks,” Norlander said. “Arkansas has one loss in eight weeks. I get the sense Arkansas is due for a dud. I don’t know if it will be here or in the SEC Tournament. I feel like they’re going to have a dud. I’m going to say it’s here. I’m going to take Tennessee to win comfortably.”

The Vols are No. 8 team in the NET rankings, while Arkansas is No. 22. Joe Lunardi has Arkansas as a projected No. 5-seed in the NCAA Tournament and Tennessee as a No. 3.

Tip from Knoxville is at 11 a.m. CT.

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ESPN gives Arkansas a 58 percent chance to beat LSU

It only took 13 wins in 14 games, but the data is finally pointing toward Arkansas.

For the first time in what feels like forever, Arkansas basketball is actually favored against a quality opponent.

ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gives the Razorbacks a 57.5% chance to beat LSU when the two teams tip from Bud Walton Arena on Wednesday night at 8 p.m. Arkansas won the teams’ first meeting in Baton Rouge on January 15. It was the second win during the Hogs’ current stretch of 13 wins in 14 games.

Arkansas had not been favored by the algorithm in five of their last six games. The only team that was picked, by the data, to be Arkansas and actually did was Alabama. That game took place in Tuscaloosa and the Crimson Tide won by a single point.

The Razorbacks’ win over Kentucky, however, jolted the data a bit. It also jolted some of the eyeball test. Joe Lunardi moved Arkansas from a 6-seed to a 5-seed. It may seem small, but it’s a much more favorable matchup.

Arkansas still has an outside chance at the SEC regular-season title. The Razorbacks are one game behind Auburn as both teams have two games left to play in the regular season.

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ESPN gives Arkansas just a 42 percent chance to beat Florida

Arkansas can put a pin in Florida’s NCAA Tournament bubble with its first win in Gainesville since 1995.

It’s been almost 27 years since Arkansas last beat Florida in Gainesville. The win then wasn’t totally needed as the Razorbacks went on to the 1995 National Championship where they fell to UCLA.

The Gators have completely owned Arkansas in the ensuing years. Before last year’s win in Fayetteville, the Razorbacks had lost 11 of their last 12 and 16 of their last 18 against Florida. That isn’t just in Gainesville. That’s anywhere.

Arkansas was ranked No. 24 in the country when the two teams met last year. Coach Eric Musselman’s team is ranked No. 18 in the country now ahead of the teams’ meeting Tuesday night.

That holds little sway with the ESPN Basketball Power Index, which gives Florida a 58% chance to win.

The game is much more important to the Gators, whose NCAA Tournament bubble was about to burst before an upset win over No. 3 Auburn (then-No. 2) on Saturday to get back to .500 in SEC play. Arkansas, meanwhile, has won 11 of its last 12 games overall and is comfortable ‘in’ the Tournament field.

But a Hogs win would bolster a resume that could get the Razorbacks back into the top-three or top-four-seed range for the Dance. Arkansas was No. 3 last year when it made the Elite Eight.

Musselman made a point to say after Saturday’s win over Tennessee that he didn’t care too much about where Arkansas finishes in the SEC standings and he’s more concerned about preparation for the NCAA Tournament. The two are somewhat linked, though, and a victory over Florida would provide Arkansas an easier path to the long-sought national title.

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ESPN gives Arkansas worse odds to beat Tennessee than it did Auburn

Tennessee and Arkansas enter Saturday’s game equally hot, but the data seems to point to the Volunteers.

Arkansas basketball may be one of the hotter teams in the country over the last month. Saturday in Bud Walton Arena, though, one just as dynamic of late visits Fayetteville.

ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gives the Razorbacks only a 40 percent chance of beating Tennessee on Saturday afternoon. For those keeping track, those are longer odds than the BPI gave Arkansas to beat then-No. 1 Auburn. That’s how hot the Volunteers are lately.

No. 16 Tennessee has lost just once in the last month-plus, a one-point defeat at the hands of Texas in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge in early January. Most recently, the Vols handled then-No. 4 Kentucky in Knoxville by double-digits.

But it isn’t as though Arkansas comes in slouching. In fact, the Hogs have just one loss in the last month, too. Alabama beat Arkansas by just a single point last week in Tuscaloosa. Other than that, the Razorbacks most recent loss came January 8 against Texas A&M.

The winner could stake claim as the SEC’s best team, as such, with Arkansas dispatching Auburn and Tennessee dispatching Kentucky. The loser won’t drop too far in the eyes of the NCAA Tournament selection committee, either.

In other words, get ready for a crackerjack in the Basketball Palace of Mid America.

Predictions for LSU basketball’s matchup against Georgia

All signs point to an LSU blowout-win against Georgia.

The Tigers prepare to take the court once again on Wednesday night for the second leg of a two-game homestand against the Georgia Bulldogs at 6 p.m. CST. After a rough stretch to close out January and begin February in which the team lost six of seven, it has now won back-to-back games against Texas A&M and Mississippi State.

Now, LSU looks to win its third in a row against a Bulldogs team that has not had a season to remember. It’s one of the worst power-conference squads in the country with just a 6-19 record and a 1-11 mark in SEC play.

Playing in the comforts of the Pete Maravich Assembly Center will also certainly help out the Tigers, as Georgia is yet to win a game on the road in seven tries this season.

While no one expected UGA to upset Alabama earlier this season, either, LSU dropping this game would be monumentally surprising. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index ranks it No. 15 while Georgia sits all the way down at No. 186.

BPI’s game-by-game predictions give LSU a 97.5% chance to win with a projected 25-point margin. While that would be a lot, even against a bad team, the Tigers should have no problem stringing together a third-straight win as they continue to get back on track.

Our prediction: LSU 73, Georgia 55

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