ESPN gives Arkansas just a 42 percent chance to beat Florida

Arkansas can put a pin in Florida’s NCAA Tournament bubble with its first win in Gainesville since 1995.

It’s been almost 27 years since Arkansas last beat Florida in Gainesville. The win then wasn’t totally needed as the Razorbacks went on to the 1995 National Championship where they fell to UCLA.

The Gators have completely owned Arkansas in the ensuing years. Before last year’s win in Fayetteville, the Razorbacks had lost 11 of their last 12 and 16 of their last 18 against Florida. That isn’t just in Gainesville. That’s anywhere.

Arkansas was ranked No. 24 in the country when the two teams met last year. Coach Eric Musselman’s team is ranked No. 18 in the country now ahead of the teams’ meeting Tuesday night.

That holds little sway with the ESPN Basketball Power Index, which gives Florida a 58% chance to win.

The game is much more important to the Gators, whose NCAA Tournament bubble was about to burst before an upset win over No. 3 Auburn (then-No. 2) on Saturday to get back to .500 in SEC play. Arkansas, meanwhile, has won 11 of its last 12 games overall and is comfortable ‘in’ the Tournament field.

But a Hogs win would bolster a resume that could get the Razorbacks back into the top-three or top-four-seed range for the Dance. Arkansas was No. 3 last year when it made the Elite Eight.

Musselman made a point to say after Saturday’s win over Tennessee that he didn’t care too much about where Arkansas finishes in the SEC standings and he’s more concerned about preparation for the NCAA Tournament. The two are somewhat linked, though, and a victory over Florida would provide Arkansas an easier path to the long-sought national title.

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