Tag: BPI

Florida basketball’s final BPI numbers for 2021-22 regular season

Here’s how the BPI shakes out for Florida after the conclusion of the regular season.

Florida basketball wrapped up its 2021-22 schedule with a home loss to the Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday, bringing a frustrating regular season to a close. With their NCAA Tournament chances on the bubble, the Gators failed to capitalize on an opportunity to improve their standing with the selection committee ahead of the Southeastern Conference Tournament.

One of the metrics that are useful in sizing up teams against their peers come March is ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, which is, “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward.” The BPI presents the data in terms of how many points a team is above or below the national average.

The numbers for Florida following the loss to Kentucky are not particularly encouraging. The Gators’ 9.8 rating is currently ranked No. 40 — which is a bit better than their No. 53 spot in the NET rankings — sandwiched between the Oklahoma Sooners at No. 39 and Oklahoma State Cowboys at No. 41.

Florida’s 19-12 overall record is better than two of the teams above it, but that is mitigated by its No. 48 ranking in the strength of record metric. Interestingly, BPI’s projected win-loss for the Gators was 19.6-12.4, virtually nailing the numbers there, though keep in mind the data does update throughout the season.

Finally, BPI gives Florida a 22.3% chance of reaching the Round of 32, 5.6% chance for Sweet 16, 1.6% for Elite Eight, 0.4% for Final Four and a 0.1% chance of making the championship game. However, the chances of winning it all are listed at 0% — that is assuming the Gators even make it to the Big Dance, of course.

The last chance for the Orange and Blue to make its March Madness case starts on Thursday against the Texas A&M Aggies at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida, with tipoff scheduled for noon EST.

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CBS Sports writers pick Tennessee as “Arkansas is due for a dud” against Vols

ESPN and CBS are both picking against the Razorbacks on Saturday against Tennessee.

At this point of the year, it’s no surprise that ESPN’s Basketball Power Index has Arkansas as an underdog. The Razorbacks have been projected by the algorithm to lose three of their last four.

Instead, the Hogs have won each of their last five and 14 out of their last 15.

Arkansas will play Tennessee, a team the Razorbacks beat two weeks ago at Bud Walton Arena, on the road in the regular-season finale on Saturday at 11 a.m. CBS Sports writers Matt Norlander and Gary Parrish each picked Tennessee to win the return game.

“Tennessee has one loss in five weeks,” Norlander said. “Arkansas has one loss in eight weeks. I get the sense Arkansas is due for a dud. I don’t know if it will be here or in the SEC Tournament. I feel like they’re going to have a dud. I’m going to say it’s here. I’m going to take Tennessee to win comfortably.”

The Vols are No. 8 team in the NET rankings, while Arkansas is No. 22. Joe Lunardi has Arkansas as a projected No. 5-seed in the NCAA Tournament and Tennessee as a No. 3.

Tip from Knoxville is at 11 a.m. CT.

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ESPN gives Arkansas a 58 percent chance to beat LSU

It only took 13 wins in 14 games, but the data is finally pointing toward Arkansas.

For the first time in what feels like forever, Arkansas basketball is actually favored against a quality opponent.

ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gives the Razorbacks a 57.5% chance to beat LSU when the two teams tip from Bud Walton Arena on Wednesday night at 8 p.m. Arkansas won the teams’ first meeting in Baton Rouge on January 15. It was the second win during the Hogs’ current stretch of 13 wins in 14 games.

Arkansas had not been favored by the algorithm in five of their last six games. The only team that was picked, by the data, to be Arkansas and actually did was Alabama. That game took place in Tuscaloosa and the Crimson Tide won by a single point.

The Razorbacks’ win over Kentucky, however, jolted the data a bit. It also jolted some of the eyeball test. Joe Lunardi moved Arkansas from a 6-seed to a 5-seed. It may seem small, but it’s a much more favorable matchup.

Arkansas still has an outside chance at the SEC regular-season title. The Razorbacks are one game behind Auburn as both teams have two games left to play in the regular season.

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ESPN gives Arkansas just a 42 percent chance to beat Florida

Arkansas can put a pin in Florida’s NCAA Tournament bubble with its first win in Gainesville since 1995.

It’s been almost 27 years since Arkansas last beat Florida in Gainesville. The win then wasn’t totally needed as the Razorbacks went on to the 1995 National Championship where they fell to UCLA.

The Gators have completely owned Arkansas in the ensuing years. Before last year’s win in Fayetteville, the Razorbacks had lost 11 of their last 12 and 16 of their last 18 against Florida. That isn’t just in Gainesville. That’s anywhere.

Arkansas was ranked No. 24 in the country when the two teams met last year. Coach Eric Musselman’s team is ranked No. 18 in the country now ahead of the teams’ meeting Tuesday night.

That holds little sway with the ESPN Basketball Power Index, which gives Florida a 58% chance to win.

The game is much more important to the Gators, whose NCAA Tournament bubble was about to burst before an upset win over No. 3 Auburn (then-No. 2) on Saturday to get back to .500 in SEC play. Arkansas, meanwhile, has won 11 of its last 12 games overall and is comfortable ‘in’ the Tournament field.

But a Hogs win would bolster a resume that could get the Razorbacks back into the top-three or top-four-seed range for the Dance. Arkansas was No. 3 last year when it made the Elite Eight.

Musselman made a point to say after Saturday’s win over Tennessee that he didn’t care too much about where Arkansas finishes in the SEC standings and he’s more concerned about preparation for the NCAA Tournament. The two are somewhat linked, though, and a victory over Florida would provide Arkansas an easier path to the long-sought national title.

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ESPN gives Arkansas worse odds to beat Tennessee than it did Auburn

Tennessee and Arkansas enter Saturday’s game equally hot, but the data seems to point to the Volunteers.

Arkansas basketball may be one of the hotter teams in the country over the last month. Saturday in Bud Walton Arena, though, one just as dynamic of late visits Fayetteville.

ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gives the Razorbacks only a 40 percent chance of beating Tennessee on Saturday afternoon. For those keeping track, those are longer odds than the BPI gave Arkansas to beat then-No. 1 Auburn. That’s how hot the Volunteers are lately.

No. 16 Tennessee has lost just once in the last month-plus, a one-point defeat at the hands of Texas in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge in early January. Most recently, the Vols handled then-No. 4 Kentucky in Knoxville by double-digits.

But it isn’t as though Arkansas comes in slouching. In fact, the Hogs have just one loss in the last month, too. Alabama beat Arkansas by just a single point last week in Tuscaloosa. Other than that, the Razorbacks most recent loss came January 8 against Texas A&M.

The winner could stake claim as the SEC’s best team, as such, with Arkansas dispatching Auburn and Tennessee dispatching Kentucky. The loser won’t drop too far in the eyes of the NCAA Tournament selection committee, either.

In other words, get ready for a crackerjack in the Basketball Palace of Mid America.

Predictions for LSU basketball’s matchup against Georgia

All signs point to an LSU blowout-win against Georgia.

The Tigers prepare to take the court once again on Wednesday night for the second leg of a two-game homestand against the Georgia Bulldogs at 6 p.m. CST. After a rough stretch to close out January and begin February in which the team lost six of seven, it has now won back-to-back games against Texas A&M and Mississippi State.

Now, LSU looks to win its third in a row against a Bulldogs team that has not had a season to remember. It’s one of the worst power-conference squads in the country with just a 6-19 record and a 1-11 mark in SEC play.

Playing in the comforts of the Pete Maravich Assembly Center will also certainly help out the Tigers, as Georgia is yet to win a game on the road in seven tries this season.

While no one expected UGA to upset Alabama earlier this season, either, LSU dropping this game would be monumentally surprising. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index ranks it No. 15 while Georgia sits all the way down at No. 186.

BPI’s game-by-game predictions give LSU a 97.5% chance to win with a projected 25-point margin. While that would be a lot, even against a bad team, the Tigers should have no problem stringing together a third-straight win as they continue to get back on track.

Our prediction: LSU 73, Georgia 55

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Tiger Bracketology: How LSU stacks up after the loss to Alabama

Looking at LSU’s bracketology resume

LSU lost a tough one in Tuscaloosa on Wednesday night. They showed fight, but it wasn’t enough to overcome an offense that sputtered for most of the night.

It was the second loss in a row for the Tigers and dropped LSU to just 3-3 in SEC play and 15-3 on the year.

It was a loss, but it was a respectable one. Despite not being ranked, Alabama is a good team, one that probably should be ranked. In addition, LSU remained without Xavier Pinson and lost Darius Days early in the night with a sprained ankle.

A week ago, LSU was firmly in contention as a one seed. After the back-to-back losses, they aren’t there anymore but they aren’t entirely out of it. LSU now sits at No. 9 in the NET rankings, just one spot below their previous ranking. ESPN has them No. 8 in the strength of record.

Those are encouraging numbers that would suggest if the tournament started tomorrow, LSU would still have a pretty good shot at a number two seed. Certainly, they’d be no lower than fourth.

The first few weeks of conference play have gone a long way to helping LSU’s strength of schedule. The Tigers are No. 21 in KenPom’s SOS and No. 18 in ESPN’s.

One of the most important factors helping to determine the NET rankings is which quadrant wins come in. LSU is currently 4-2 against quad one opponents. A win on the road against Alabama would have made that 5-1.

In quad two, LSU is 4-1. That lone quad two-loss came at the hands of Arkansas on Jan. 15th.

A combined 8-3 record against quad one and two is a strong record. Due to the 8-1 start, LSU could afford the losses to Arkansas and Alabama without it causing any real long-term damage.

LSU will have another opportunity to add to the quad one category in Knoxville on Saturday. It’s still not clear whether LSU will have Pinson or Days available. If not, it could be another rough day for the LSU offense.

The good news is that if it comes down to it, the selection committee may take into account that LSU was without Pinson for this stretch of games. Especially if he comes back and seems to make a large difference in LSU’s offense.

After Tennessee, LSU’s schedule becomes a world easier. The Tigers won’t face a top 40 team again until Kentucky on February 23rd.

Easier opponents mean an opportunity to get healthy, regroup, and figure out the offense. The flip side to that is if LSU loses any of those games against lesser opponents, it shows up as a bad loss on the resume. A win against Tennessee would go a long way to giving LSU some room for error down the stretch.

Arkansas has an 90 percent chance to beat Missouri

Arkansas is a lot better than Missouri and the ESPN and KenPom datasets show it.

The numbers work for Arkansas on Wednesday. The question is whether the Razorbacks will continue to defy predictions.

Hogs faithful are hoping not as Missouri visits Bud Walton Arena on Wednesday night. Arkansas sits winless in SEC play after dropping its first three conference contests of the year and five of its last six games overall. Coach Eric Musselman’s team was projected to win all three of its SEC-opening games as recently as mid-December.

When the Tigers visit, the Razorbacks will have a 89.7% chance to exit their home arena with a first win, per ESPN’s matchup predictor. Going further, the site’s Basketball Power Index ranks Arkansas as the No. 49 team in the nation while Missouri is slotted at No. 189.

Not only is the advantage far and wide for the Razorbacks, but the placing inside the top 50 suggests with a return to form, Arkansas would not be far off an NCAA Tournament berth.

The teams are placed similarly in the KenPom.com rankings. Those are largely considered one of the best when it comes to predicting postseason chances. There, the Razorbacks are 54th while Missouri is 149th.

An Arkansas win almost certainly wouldn’t lift the Razorbacks to the top 40, a loss would almost certainly send them careening to a point where even the most optimistic of rallies may not be enough to recover a lost season.

ESPN’s basketball analytics is underrating Ohio State, too

ESPN’s BPI does not yet think Ohio State is one of the best teams in the country. That will change soon.

The Ohio State Buckeyes have opened the men’s basketball season in impressive fashion. The Buckeyes are 4-0, and have a notable blowout win over Villanova. That win propelled the Buckeyes into the Top 10 of the major rankings.

Much like in football, though, ESPN’s analytics are slow to catch up.

Much talk was made this football season, especially early, about where FPI ranked the Buckeyes. I explained, multiple times, that it had a very reasonable explanation. Justin Fields and Ryan Day were unproven, and therefore there were a lot of potential variance in how the season would go. As Ohio State performed well, FPI reverted to the top-end possibilities, and now Ohio State is setting records in FPI.

The exact same is true in basketball. ESPN’s BPI ratings currently put Ohio State at No. 21, with a projected record of about 21-10. The reason for this is clear, though. The Buckeyes have two good wins (which is why BPI’s resume has the Buckeyes at No. 6), but the overall SOS is No. 144 so far, while the remaining SOS is ranked No. 28.

BPI has not yet had the chance to learn to trust Ohio State. The Buckeyes played two great games, but were still unproven coming into the season. Much like FPI, BPI simulates games and seasons to get a bearing on teams. Ohio State’s simulations had high-end and low-end estimates. The Buckeyes are clearly performing at (or above) the high-end estimates so far. However, with so many new faces in key spots (and old faces that were very good but not elite in previous years), it makes sense that BPI still has the low-end possibilities dragging Ohio State’s ranking down.

As Ohio State keeps impressing–and overperforming its BPI estimates (something the Buckeyes have done in all four games so far this year)–that BPI number will skyrocket. Just how high is the limit will take time to tell. We might even have to wait for the December trip to Chapel Hill to face North Carolina in the Big Ten-ACC Challenge.