Tag: Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians odds predictions pick betting line spread

Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

The Boston Red Sox (14-11) and Cleveland Guardians (17-7) wrap up a 4-game series Thursday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Guardians lead 4-2

The Red Sox took out a bit of frustration on the Guardians on Wednesday, winning 8-0 behind RHP Cooper Criswell. Boston cashed as an underdog (+115) as the total (8) pushed at most shops. The Red Sox have still won just twice in 6 meetings with the Guardians, with both victories coming via shutout.

The Guardians had a 5-game winning streak snapped in Wednesday’s shutout loss. Cleveland is still an impressive 8-2 in the past 10 games, while the Over is 7-3-1 across the past 11 outings.

This is the final regular-season meeting between the teams.

Red Sox at Guardians projected starters

RHP Chase Anderson vs. RHP Triston McKenzie

Anderson (0-0, 2.77 ERA) makes his 1st start and 7th appearance of the season. He has a 0.85 WHIP, 0.7 BB/9 and 5.6 K/9 in 13 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 4-1 win vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Sept. 26, 2023 (with the Colorado Rockies)
  • 2023 road splits: 0-4, 7.20 ERA (35 IP, 28 ER), 41 H (9 HR), 13 BB, 25 K, .297 opponents’ batting average (OBA) in 7 starts and 1 relief appearance

McKenzie (2-2, 5.00 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.61 WHIP, 7.5 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 in 18 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 10-2 home victory vs. Oakland Athletics on Friday
  • 2024 home splits: 2-1, 3.68 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 10 H (2 HR), 13 BB, 9 K, .189 OBA in 3 starts

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! BHQ offers Draft Prep and full-season subscriptions. Sign up today and start winning!

Red Sox at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:11 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Red Sox +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Guardians -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-160) | Guardians -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

Red Sox at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 5, Red Sox 2

Moneyline

The GUARDIANS (-155) are worth a look on getaway day, as they have won 4 of 6 meetings this season with the Red Sox (+130), and the pitching scales are tipped in their favor.

Anderson was a disaster on the road last season, and he makes his 1st start for Boston away from home. McKenzie struggled in only road start this season, but he has enjoyed the home cooking.

Run line/Against the spread

The GUARDIANS -1.5 (+135) are much riskier on the run line, laying the run and a half. While we don’t want to double-up on Cleveland, consider going lightly on the run line, while focusing mostly on the moneyline.

Over/Under

UNDER 7.5 (-105) is worth a look in this afternoon affair, but go with a half-unit play at most.

While Anderson was a disaster last season with the Rockies on the road, the Guardians managed no runs on Tuesday against Criswell. The wind is blowing in from the right-centerfield power alley at a 9-12 mph clip, knocking down potential home run balls.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

The Boston Red Sox (13-11) and Cleveland Guardians (17-6) play the middle contest of a 3-game series Wednesday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Guardians lead 4-1

The Red Sox suffered the 4-1 loss in Tuesday’s series opener, just their 4th road loss in 14 tries. Boston frittered away a good start by RHP Tanner Houck, who allowed 2 ER and 5 H across 6 IP. It took a 1-0 lead into the 7th inning stretch, but the Cleveland bats struck against the bullpen.

Boston learned it will be without 1B Triston Casas, who is out indefinitely after suffering a broken rib on a swing in Pittsburgh. Casas had belted 6 HR in just his 1st 78 at-bats.

The Guardians are now 17-6, which is the best start in the club’s 124-year history. Switch-hitting All-Star Jose Ramirez hit his 1st opposite-field right-handed HR since 2017. Cleveland has won 5 in a row, and while the Over didn’t cash Tuesday, it is still 9-4 in the past 13 outings.

Red Sox at Guardians projected starters

RHP Cooper Criswell vs. RHP Carlos Carrasco

Criswell (0-1, 4.26 ERA) makes his 2nd start and 3rd appearance of the season. He has a 1.58 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 in 6 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 2 ER, 5 H (1 HR), 1 BB, 4 K in 7-2 win vs. Los Angeles Angels April 13
  • 2023 road splits (with Rays): 0-0, 7.65 ERA (15 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 20 H, 3 BB, 13 K, .308 opponents’ batting average in 5 relief appearances

Carrasco (1-1, 3.44 ERA) makes his 5th start of the season. He has a 1.53 WHIP, 5.9 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 18 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 5-4 road victory vs. Red Sox Thursday
  • 2024 home splits: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 5 BB, 2 K in 1 start vs. New York Yankees April 13
  • Career vs. Red Sox: 2-4, 7.55 ERA (39 1/3 IP, 33 ER — 6 HR), 63 H, 15 BB, 37 K, 1.98 WHIP in 8 starts and 2 relief appearances

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! BHQ offers Draft Prep and full-season subscriptions. Sign up today and start winning!

Red Sox at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Red Sox +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Guardians -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-175) | Guardians -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

Red Sox at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 4, Red Sox 3

Moneyline

The GUARDIANS (-140) are a strong value at home with Carrasco against the visiting Red Sox (+120).

While Cleveland has been rolling along, Cookie Carrasco has struggled in his career against the Red Sox. However, even he won in Boston in his most recent start, and there just seems to be something magical about this Cleveland team, at least in the early going.

Facts and statistics say to back the visitors, but with a short-innings starter in Criswell, that means more work for the bullpen. That bullpen was trampled last night, so it’s a good idea to back the home side.

Run line/Against the spread

The Red Sox +1.5 (-175) are a little on the pricey side if you are looking for a little bit of insurance. If you like Boston, just bet it straight up.

PASS.

Over/Under

UNDER 7.5 (-105) is the lean, so go with a half-unit play at most.

The total went low in the series opener, and the Under has cashed in 3 straight games for Boston while cashing at an 8-3 clip in the past 11 games. In 5 matchups with the Guardians, the Under has a 3-2 edge this season.

Cleveland cashed the Under Tuesday, but the Over had been on a 4-0 run in the previous 4 days. Of course, much of that streak came in the 3-game series sweep against the hapless A’s over the weekend, with Cleveland piling up 22 runs of offense.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

The Boston Red Sox (13-10) and Cleveland Guardians (16-6) open a 3-game series Tuesday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Guardians lead 3-1

Boston swept a 3-game interleague series in Pittsburgh to kick off a 6-game road trip, winning each outing as an underdog. The Under cashed in the past 2 games after opening with an Over result Friday against the Pirates. Boston has won 4 in a row on the road, and it is 9-1 in the past 10 away from home.

Cleveland swept a 3-game series against the Oakland Athletics, outscoring the A’s 22-7. The Over cashed in each game of the series, while going 9-3 in the past 12 outings. The Cleveland offense has racked up 5 or more runs in 4 straight games, and 7 of the past 8 contests.

Red Sox at Guardians projected starters

RHP Tanner Houck vs. RHP Ben Lively

Houck (3-1, 1.35 ERA) makes his 5th start of the season. He has a 0.90 WHIP, 0.7 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 26 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, CG, 9 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 9 K in 2-0 win vs. Cleveland Guardians Wednesday
  • 2024 road splits: 2-0, 0.00 ERA (12 IP, 0 ER), 7 H, 2 BB, 17 K, .167 opponent batting average (OBA) in 2 starts

Lively (0-1, 3.60 ERA) makes his 2nd start of the season. He has a 0.80 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 12.6 K/9 in 5 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 2-0 road loss vs. Boston Red Sox Wednesday
  • 2023 home splits (for Reds): 2-2, 4.70 ERA (38 1/3 IP, 20 ER), 34 H, 16 BB, 39 K in 6 starts and 2 relief appearances

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! BHQ offers Draft Prep and full-season subscriptions. Sign up today and start winning!

Red Sox at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:16 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Red Sox -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Guardians -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox -1.5 (+145) | Guardians +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

Red Sox at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 4, Guardians 3

Moneyline

The RED SOX (-115) are a decent play in the series opener as they look to avenge a series loss at Fenway Park last week against the Guardians (-105).

Houck has been on fire so far this season, turning in 3 quality starts. In fact, he has 6 or more scoreless innings in each of those outings. His only poor outing was a loss April 12 against the Los Angeles Angels when he yielded 7 runs (4 earned) in 5 2/3 innings.

The Guardians turn to Lively, who actually pitched pretty well in Boston in his team debut. However, he hasn’t been on the same level as Houck, and he is likely to get outpitched again in Tuesday’s opener.

Run line/Against the spread

The Guardians +1.5 (-175) are a little on the pricey side in this series opener. While Cleveland has the best record in baseball during the early going, it’s hard to trust it with Lively on the bump.

PASS.

Over/Under

UNDER 8.5 (-115) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most.

While Cleveland has cashed the Over in 4 straight games, the total split 2-2 in the 4-game set with Boston. The Under cashed the first head-to-head matchup between Houck and Lively.

The Under has cashed in the past 2 games in Pittsburgh, while the total has gone low in 7 of the past 10 games for Boston.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Boston Red Sox (31-31) and Cleveland Guardians (28-33) meet Thursday at 7:10 p.m. ET to close out a 3-game series at Progressive Field. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Red Sox lead 3-2

Boston and Cleveland have split the first 2 games of this series after Cleveland picked up a 5-2 victory Wednesday. The Red Sox have scored 2 or fewer in 4 of their last 5 games and have averaged just 3.44 runs per game over their last 16 games.

Cleveland pitching has held the Sox homer-less over games 1 and 2. The Guardians own a fine 2.71 ERA over their last 8 home games.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

Red Sox at Guardians projected starters

LHP Matt Dermody vs. RHP Aaron Civale

Dermody is expected to be promoted from Triple-A Worcester for his 1st Major League start after 30 career relief outings.

  • Owns a 5.60 and 1.39 WHIP across 27 1/3 career innings in 30 games (2016-22)
  • Has notched a 4.50 ERA and 1.34 WHIP across 44 IP at Triple-A this season
  • Has logged 6-plus innings in 4 of his last 5 AAA starts

Civale (1-1, 2.04 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 through 17 2/3 IP.

  • Tossed 5 scoreless innings at the Minnesota Twins Friday in his return from the IL with an oblique injury
  • Threw 83 pitches last time out; tossed 103 pitches and 80 pitches in his 2 April starts

Red Sox at Guardians odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:42 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Red Sox +124 (bet $100 to win $123) | Guardians -146 (bet $146 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-170) | Guardians -1.5 (+140
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW23 for $15 OFF a full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 9/30/2023. Subscribe today and start winning!

Red Sox at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 6, Guardians 5

Moneyline

The Red Sox are 14-6 in the last 20 meetings with the Guardians and 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Cleveland.

Boston has played a much tougher schedule and has a much stronger offense.

First-time starters or pitchers off long lay-offs are part of a decision tree for me. I’m out for the game usually when they are part of the equation, but Boston is still a lean Thursday. At a good price, +130 or better, Boston may be worth some partial-unit underdog action for some bettors but until then it’s a PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

The Over has a lean here, so Boston +1.5 (-170) becomes less of a lure. The pricing here offers no incentive.

PASS.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

Over/Under

The Over is 4-1 in the last 5 series meetings in Cleveland.

Civale — he of the 4.42 ERA from 2020-22 — has benefited from some generous rates around the margins through his small sample.

The price here is attractive. There is an upside to the Boston offense and some downside in Cleveland’s pitching numbers (including the Guardians bullpen figures). The back end of the Cleveland relief corps is in the likely-fatigued category.

TAKE THE OVER 8.5 (-108).

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Boston Red Sox (30-30) and Cleveland Guardians (27-32) embark on a 3-game series at Progressive Field Tuesday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Red Sox lead 2-1

Boston lost to Tampa Bay 4-1 Monday and was beaten by the Rays 3-1 in a wrap-around series at Fenway Park. The BoSox are just 4-10 with a .681 OPS in their last 14 games.

Cleveland was off Monday after going 4-3 on a road trip at the Baltimore Orioles and Minnesota Twins last week. The Guardians are 8-6 with a 2.83 ERA over their last 14 games at home.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

Red Sox at Guardians projected starters

LHP James Paxton vs. RHP Shane Bieber

Paxton (1-1, 4.26 ERA) is making his 5th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 12.8 K/9 through 19 IP.

  • Coming off the sharpest start of the year: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K in a 5-4 loss to vs. the Cincinnati Reds Wednesday
  • Missed April with a hamstring strain
  • Owns a 3.61 ERA over 141 career games

Bieber (4-3, 3.72 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 through 75 IP.

  • Current Boston batters own a high-contact .819 OPS against him
  • K/9 figure is a would-be career low

Red Sox at Guardians odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:47 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Red Sox +106 (bet $100 to win $106) | Guardians -124 (bet $124 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-188) | Guardians -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -114 | U: -106)

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW23 for $15 OFF a full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 9/30/2023. Subscribe today and start winning!

Red Sox at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 5, Guardians 3

Moneyline

The Red Sox are 13-5 in the last 18 meetings with the Guardians and 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Cleveland.

Bieber is running into a lot of bats and is in for some ERA bloat unless he gets things turned around. Paxton sets up the other way: he’s been hurt by a .310 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and a 16.7% home runs/fly balls (HR/FB) rate. He’s a fly-ball hurler who figures to be aided by a hefty, inward pitcher’s breeze in this one. The bullpens figure to be a more even proposition than what shows on paper (ERAs: Cleveland 3.06, Boston 3.83).

The Guardians are 1-4 across their last 5 games after an off day. Boston has played a much tougher schedule and has a much stronger offense.

Tab this one for a partial-unit play on BOSTON (+106). Early betting — toward the Crimson Hose — has taken a bit of the starch out of this play, but the current return still makes for value.

Run line/Against the spread

These 2 clubs have played a ton of 1-run games so far and with a low-scoring run environment, the idea of a Sox-plus-a-run play has some lure. But there is a lot of juice here.

PASS.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

Over/Under

Plenty of expected-vs.-actual results — for offenses, starters, bullpens — swing both ways across this total. The market doesn’t seem to have a good feel for this one and books are all over the map.

AVOID.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Boston Red Sox (41-31) meet the Cleveland Guardians (36-31) for their 3-game series finale at Progressive Field with Sunday’s 1st pitch scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Guardians odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Boston is on a 6-game winning streak, which includes 2 games of this set. The Red Sox have outscored the Guardians 10-5 in their 1st series of the season.

Cleveland has dropped 3 consecutive games, but is 13-7 overall in the last 20 games and is just 1 game back of the Minnesota Twins for the AL Central lead.

Red Sox at Guardians projected starters

LHP Rich Hill vs. RHP Aaron Civale    

Hill is 3-4 with a 4.35 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 60 IP in 13 starts.

  • Last start: Won 5-4 at home Tuesday vs. the Detroit Tigers with 5 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 6 K.
  • 2022 road splits: 2-1 with a 2.67 ERA (33 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.01 WHIP, 2 HR and 6.7 K/9 in 7 starts.

Civale is 2-3 with a 7.25 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 36 IP over 8 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in Cleveland’s 6-5 win at the Minnesota Twins Tuesday with 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB and 7 K.
  • 2022 home splits: 2-1 with a 3.94 ERA (16 IP, 7 ER), 13 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 16 K in 3 starts.

Red Sox at Guardians odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:24 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Red Sox -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Guardians -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox -1.5 (+135) | Guardians +1.5 (-170)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Red Sox at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 5, Guardians 3

Money line

BET a half-unit on the RED SOX (-115) because they have edges in the starting and hitting matchups and there could be value in fading a gamblers’ fallacy that “Boston won’t sweep a winning Guardians (-105) team.”

Hill grades better than Civale in several advanced pitching stats including hard-hit rate, exit velocity, expected ERA and expected batting average, wOBA and slugging percentage slash rate (per Statcast).

Also, Cleveland’s lineup ranks last vs. left-handed pitching in wRC+ (79) and wOBA (.277), 20th in BB/K rate (0.37) and 23rd in hard-hit rate (28.4%), according to FanGraphs.

BET only a half-unit on the RED SOX (-115) because I’m higher on Civale’s stuff than Hill and Cleveland has a much better bullpen than Boston.

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW22 for 20% OFF full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 6/30/2022. Subscribe today and start winning!

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The payout for the Red Sox -1.5 (+135) isn’t big enough especially with my confidence level for Boston. Also, the Guardians +1.5 (-170) are 9-8 RL as home underdogs and the Red Sox are just 7-6 RL as road favorites.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 9.5 (-122).

A vast majority of the market is hammering the Over 9.5 (-102) because Hill is a bottom-of-the-rotation starter playing in the final years of his career and Civale is having a terrible 2022.

However, I’d rather fade this lopsided betting market, if anything, since the Red Sox are 3-6 O/U when Hill gets the nod and the Guardians are awful vs. left-handed pitching.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions

[mm-video type=video id=01g54yk1gsyawm86wznq playlist_id=01fb7dafw2b08817yr player_id=none image=https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/video/thumbnail/mmplus/01g54yk1gsyawm86wznq/01g54yk1gsyawm86wznq-05e9ffe32459a1388feaf396edc4b3ba.jpg]

The Boston Red Sox (40-31) and Cleveland Guardians (36-30) meet Saturday for the middle contest of a 3-game set at Progressive Field in Cleveland. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Guardians odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Red Sox lead 1-0 after doubling up the Guardians 6-3 in Friday’s opener with the Over (8.5) cashing

The Red Sox enter Saturday’s game on a 5-game win streak, while posting victories in 10 of their previous 12 games away from home.

The Guardians are basically tied for 1st place with the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central but are actually percentage points ahead. They’re also 16-11 at home this season, including 8-3 in the previous 11 despite Friday’s setback.

Red Sox at Guardians projected starters

RHP Josh Winckowski vs. RHP Shane Bieber

Winckowski (2-1, 3.68 ERA) makes his 4th start. The rookie has a 1.50 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 through 14 2/3 IP.

  • Recorded 1st-career quality start last time out, allowing 2 ER on 7 H and 1 BB across 6 2/3 IP against the Detroit Tigers Monday
  • Will be making his 1st-career MLB road start

Bieber (3-3, 3.00 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 through 78 IP.

  • Winless in past 3 starts, posting 3 consecutive no-decisions
  • 1-0 with a 2.59 ERA across 24 1/3 IP in 4 June starts – Cleveland won all 4 games
  • Career vs. Red Sox: 2-2, 6.95 ERA (22 IP, 17 ER) in 3 starts, including 1 relief appearance – last faced Boston in 2019

Red Sox at Guardians odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:1 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Red Sox +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Guardians -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-150) | Guardians -1.5 (+122)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Red Sox at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 5, Guardians 4

Money line

The value is with the RED SOX (+135), as laying the big number with the Guardians (-170) isn’t a good idea. Cleveland’s bats have gone cold, totaling 3 runs in the past 2 outings, both losses.

Yes, Bieber is on the hill, and yes, he hasn’t faced the Red Sox since 2019. However, when he has faced Boston, he has been rather uneven, and the prospect Winckowski has come up to the majors and is building confidence. The rook will outpitch the savvy veteran.

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW22 for 20% OFF full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 6/30/2022. Subscribe today and start winning!

Run line/Against the spread

The RED SOX +1.5 (-150) aren’t a terrible play if you don’t trust the rookie hurler to get it done in his 1st-career road start, and you’d like a little insurance. Boston is on a 5-game heater, however, therefore it’s best to play the Sox straight up for a much better value.

Over/Under

The OVER 8.5 (-120) just came through in Friday’s series opener, with 9 total runs and an O/U line of 8.5. Both teams scored a run in the 9th to inch this one across the finish line.

Over bettors might be in for another sweat job Saturday, but the lean is to the Over, yet again.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cleveland Guardians (36-28) host the Boston Red Sox (39-31) for the start of a 3-game series at Progressive Field with Friday’s 1st pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Guardians odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Boston is 8-2 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games and is on a 4-game winning streak.

Cleveland is also 8-2 SU in the last 10 and is tied atop the AL Central with the Minnesota Twins.

The Red Sox lead the season series 4-2 and have outscored the Guardians by 38-23 in the 6 games.

Red Sox at Guardians projected starters

RHP Nick Pivetta vs. RHP Cal Quantrill    

Pivetta is 7-5 with a 3.31 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 81 2/3 IP over 14 starts.

  • Last start: Won 6-4 Sunday at home vs. the St. Louis Cardinals with 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 10 K.
  • 2022 road splits: 3-3 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 4 HR and 9.5 K/9 in 39 2/3 IP over 7 starts.

Quantrill is 4-4 with a 3.77 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 in 71 2/3 IP over 12 starts.

  • Last start: Lost 7-1 Saturday at the Los Angeles Dodgers with 5 IP, 5 ER, 10 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 4 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Red Sox: 0-1 with a 4.15 ERA (13 IP, 6 ER), 13 H, 4 HR, 4 BB and 12 K in 2 starts.

Red Sox at Guardians odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:13 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Red Sox -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Guardians +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox -1.5 (+130) | Guardians +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Red Sox at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 5, Red Sox 4

Money line

BET the GUARDIANS (+102) because they have a 3-phase edge over the Red Sox (-120) in starting and relief pitching and hitting.

Quantrill grades much higher than Pivetta in several advanced pitching metrics such as exit velocity (65-9%), hard-hit rate (76-15%) and chase rate (80-22%), according to Statcast.

Furthermore, Cleveland’s bullpen is better than Boston’s by ERA (3.80-2.94), xFIP (4.07-3.54), hard-hit rate (41.5-37.5%) and K/BB rate (2.88-2.62), per FanGraphs.

Finally, the Guardians are 23-19 SU against right-handed starters while the Red Sox are 26-27 SU vs. righties. Also, Cleveland’s lineup outperforms Boston’s vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+ (109-102), wOBA (.319-.315) and BB/K rate (0.44-0.35), according to FanGraphs.

BET 1 unit on the GUARDIANS (+102).

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW22 for 20% OFF full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 6/30/2022. Subscribe today and start winning!

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

This is a good spot for the Red Sox -1.5 (+135) since they are 6-1 RL following a rest day and 4-1 RL as road favorites vs. teams with a winning record since the beginning of last season. As much as I’d like some insurance for Cleveland’s ML, the Guardians +1.5 (-170) is just too expensive.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 8.5 (-135), if at all.

Red Sox-Guardians are 13-6-1 O/U in their last 20 meetings, Boston is 4-2-1 O/U following a rest day and Cleveland is 6-2 O/U as home underdogs vs. teams with a winning record.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]