Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Boston Red Sox (30-30) and Cleveland Guardians (27-32) embark on a 3-game series at Progressive Field Tuesday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Red Sox lead 2-1

Boston lost to Tampa Bay 4-1 Monday and was beaten by the Rays 3-1 in a wrap-around series at Fenway Park. The BoSox are just 4-10 with a .681 OPS in their last 14 games.

Cleveland was off Monday after going 4-3 on a road trip at the Baltimore Orioles and Minnesota Twins last week. The Guardians are 8-6 with a 2.83 ERA over their last 14 games at home.

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Red Sox at Guardians projected starters

LHP James Paxton vs. RHP Shane Bieber

Paxton (1-1, 4.26 ERA) is making his 5th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 12.8 K/9 through 19 IP.

  • Coming off the sharpest start of the year: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K in a 5-4 loss to vs. the Cincinnati Reds Wednesday
  • Missed April with a hamstring strain
  • Owns a 3.61 ERA over 141 career games

Bieber (4-3, 3.72 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 through 75 IP.

  • Current Boston batters own a high-contact .819 OPS against him
  • K/9 figure is a would-be career low

Red Sox at Guardians odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:47 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Red Sox +106 (bet $100 to win $106) | Guardians -124 (bet $124 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-188) | Guardians -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -114 | U: -106)

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Red Sox at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 5, Guardians 3

Moneyline

The Red Sox are 13-5 in the last 18 meetings with the Guardians and 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Cleveland.

Bieber is running into a lot of bats and is in for some ERA bloat unless he gets things turned around. Paxton sets up the other way: he’s been hurt by a .310 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and a 16.7% home runs/fly balls (HR/FB) rate. He’s a fly-ball hurler who figures to be aided by a hefty, inward pitcher’s breeze in this one. The bullpens figure to be a more even proposition than what shows on paper (ERAs: Cleveland 3.06, Boston 3.83).

The Guardians are 1-4 across their last 5 games after an off day. Boston has played a much tougher schedule and has a much stronger offense.

Tab this one for a partial-unit play on BOSTON (+106). Early betting — toward the Crimson Hose — has taken a bit of the starch out of this play, but the current return still makes for value.

Run line/Against the spread

These 2 clubs have played a ton of 1-run games so far and with a low-scoring run environment, the idea of a Sox-plus-a-run play has some lure. But there is a lot of juice here.

PASS.

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Over/Under

Plenty of expected-vs.-actual results — for offenses, starters, bullpens — swing both ways across this total. The market doesn’t seem to have a good feel for this one and books are all over the map.

AVOID.

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