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The Boston Red Sox (13-11) and Cleveland Guardians (17-6) play the middle contest of a 3-game series Wednesday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Guardians lead 4-1
The Red Sox suffered the 4-1 loss in Tuesday’s series opener, just their 4th road loss in 14 tries. Boston frittered away a good start by RHP Tanner Houck, who allowed 2 ER and 5 H across 6 IP. It took a 1-0 lead into the 7th inning stretch, but the Cleveland bats struck against the bullpen.
Boston learned it will be without 1B Triston Casas, who is out indefinitely after suffering a broken rib on a swing in Pittsburgh. Casas had belted 6 HR in just his 1st 78 at-bats.
The Guardians are now 17-6, which is the best start in the club’s 124-year history. Switch-hitting All-Star Jose Ramirez hit his 1st opposite-field right-handed HR since 2017. Cleveland has won 5 in a row, and while the Over didn’t cash Tuesday, it is still 9-4 in the past 13 outings.
Red Sox at Guardians projected starters
RHP Cooper Criswell vs. RHP Carlos Carrasco
Criswell (0-1, 4.26 ERA) makes his 2nd start and 3rd appearance of the season. He has a 1.58 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 in 6 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 2 ER, 5 H (1 HR), 1 BB, 4 K in 7-2 win vs. Los Angeles Angels April 13
- 2023 road splits (with Rays): 0-0, 7.65 ERA (15 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 20 H, 3 BB, 13 K, .308 opponents’ batting average in 5 relief appearances
Carrasco (1-1, 3.44 ERA) makes his 5th start of the season. He has a 1.53 WHIP, 5.9 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 18 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 5-4 road victory vs. Red Sox Thursday
- 2024 home splits: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 5 BB, 2 K in 1 start vs. New York Yankees April 13
- Career vs. Red Sox: 2-4, 7.55 ERA (39 1/3 IP, 33 ER — 6 HR), 63 H, 15 BB, 37 K, 1.98 WHIP in 8 starts and 2 relief appearances
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Red Sox at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Red Sox +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Guardians -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-175) | Guardians -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Red Sox at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 4, Red Sox 3
Moneyline
The GUARDIANS (-140) are a strong value at home with Carrasco against the visiting Red Sox (+120).
While Cleveland has been rolling along, Cookie Carrasco has struggled in his career against the Red Sox. However, even he won in Boston in his most recent start, and there just seems to be something magical about this Cleveland team, at least in the early going.
Facts and statistics say to back the visitors, but with a short-innings starter in Criswell, that means more work for the bullpen. That bullpen was trampled last night, so it’s a good idea to back the home side.
Run line/Against the spread
The Red Sox +1.5 (-175) are a little on the pricey side if you are looking for a little bit of insurance. If you like Boston, just bet it straight up.
PASS.
Over/Under
UNDER 7.5 (-105) is the lean, so go with a half-unit play at most.
The total went low in the series opener, and the Under has cashed in 3 straight games for Boston while cashing at an 8-3 clip in the past 11 games. In 5 matchups with the Guardians, the Under has a 3-2 edge this season.
Cleveland cashed the Under Tuesday, but the Over had been on a 4-0 run in the previous 4 days. Of course, much of that streak came in the 3-game series sweep against the hapless A’s over the weekend, with Cleveland piling up 22 runs of offense.
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