Tag: Boise State Football

Mountain West Football: Who Are The Top National Award Candidates Right Now?

The Mountain West may still face an upward climb toward national respect, but a handful of players could merit serious consideration.

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Mountain West Football: Who Are The Top National Award Candidates Right Now?

The Mountain West may still face an upward climb toward national respect, but a handful of players could merit serious consideration.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

Plenty of work left to do, but they deserve to be in the running.

Jacob De Jesus, UNLV – Paul Hornung Award

De Jesus’s transfer from Modesto Junior College to Las Vegas mostly flew under the radar, but Barry Odom’s coaching staff found lots to like back in the spring. That early buzz has paid dividends in live action since he now ranks second in the Mountain West with an average of 125.7 all-purpose yards per game.

Though he’s only scored two touchdowns through seven games, De Jesus has nonetheless been a massive weapon for a Rebels offense that has thrived on better-than-average field position all season, with 16.3 yards per punt return and 28.5 yards per kick return, the latter of which ranks fifth in all of FBS.

James Ferguson-Reynolds, Boise State – Ray Guy Award

The Aussie had a fine debut as the Broncos’ punter in 2022, but he’s raised his game enough to be considered one of, if not the, best at his position this fall. His 49.5 yards per punt leads the country through seven games while his net of 42.5 yards is good enough to rank 11th, but the ways in which Ferguson-Reynolds has really paid dividends are that he’s launched 17 kicks of 50 or more yards and landed 13-of-31 kicks inside the opponent’s 20-yard line.

Dallin Holker, Colorado State – John Mackey Award

Could the Rams bring this individual honor back to Fort Collins for the second time in three seasons? No one thought so when Holker transferred to CSU from BYU, but with the recent injury to Georgia Bulldogs superstar Brock Bowers, it’s an open question whether anyone else in the country can step up and be as productive as Holker has been week after week.

After all, he now leads all FBS tight ends with 43 catches and 577 yards and trails only Oregon State’s Jack Velling with six receiving touchdowns. Holker’s even had what you might call his Mackey Moment, too, helping the Rams to defy the odds and stun Boise State back in Week 7.

Ashton Jeanty, Boise State – Earl Campbell Tyler Rose Award and Doak Walker Award

The Broncos have had their share of immensely talented running backs over the years, but the sophomore superstar has done the kind of heavy lifting through seven games that not even Doug Martin or Jay Ajayi could match. Jeanty currently leads the nation with 180.6 all-purpose yards per game and 15 total touchdowns, and he ranks third with 868 rushing yards. For the moment, he’s also the only FBS running back with 30 receptions out the backfield.

In other words, if he keeps this up, he’d better take home some kind of hardware this winter.

Mohamed Kamara, Colorado State – Bednarik Award

Few edge defenders around the country have been as consistently disruptive as Kamara has been in 2023. He is currently tied for fifth among all FBS players with 13 tackles for loss and second with 10.5 sacks, so in a year without too many other obvious candidates — UCLA’s Laiatu Latu and Alabama’s Dallas Turner come to mind — a strong November could be the push Kamara needs to edge out the competition.

Jose Pizano, UNLV – Lou Groza Award

Daniel Gutierrez left the Rebels as the program’s most accurate kicker ever, so you’d be forgiven if you thought whoever replaced him might suffer some inevitable regression. The Missouri State transfer has made his super senior season count, however, more or less matching Gutierrez’s 2022 production in seven games with 18-of-19 field goals and 81 points. He’s been a significant reason why UNLV can already look forward to bowling in December, but now he can take aim at a season for the ages for the scarlet and gray.

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Week 8 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets

Step right and place your bets! The Mountain West heads into week 8 and we look at where you should put your money this week.

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Week 8 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets

A look at the Mountain West betting odds for Week 8

Contact/Follow @J0shFr3d & @MWCwire

What are the oddsmakers saying about these match ups?

Late in the week we will look at odds and recent lines and make our best picks and bets. Odds courtesy of Vegas Insider.

We went 2-4 in week seven and are 35-27-1 on the year. Another week below .500. At this point, just take the opposite of what I do.

#22 Air Force @ Navy (+10, O/U 33.5)

Air Force has been dominant all season. They got tested against Wyoming, but have taken care of business against everyone else. Navy is in that everyone else category. Usually service academy matchups are close, but the Midshipmen haven’t been at that level the past few years. Take the Falcons to cover.

Pick: Air Force -10

Hawai’i @ New Mexico (+2.5, O/U 60.5)

The Warriors are looking for their first road win of the Timmy Chang era. The run-and-shoot offense is start to gain a foothold. The Lobos looked to be turning a corner on offense, but backslid against San Jose State. Look for that to continue against Hawai’i.

Pick: Hawai’i -2.5

Colorado State @ UNLV (-7.5, O/U 61.5)

It’s a shootout in Vegas this week. The Rebels and Rams both have horrible defenses and it probably won’t change this week unless something drastic happens. Look for this to get close to 70-75 points.

Pick: Over

Utah State @ San Jose State (-4.5, O/U 66.5)

This is the Mountain West trap game of the week. San Jose State broke out of their funk against New Mexico. The Aggies had a chance to beat Fresno State. This has the makings of an offensive slugfest. I still don’t trust the Spartans and the Aggies have shown something these past couple of weeks.

Pick: Utah State +4

Nevada @ San Diego state (-11.5, O/U 47.5)

Look Nevada is bad and has a chance to go winless this year. The Aztecs aren’t that good of a team either, but they’ve managed to make enough plays to get three wins this year. This could be another shootout, but I doubt it with how bad these offenses are. Take the under.

Pick: Under

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Mountain West Football: Week 7 Winners And Losers

Air Force, UNLV, and Timmy Chang headline the week’s winners and losers in Mountain West football.

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Mountain West Football: Week 7 Winners And Losers

Who came out ahead and who left something to be desired across the Mountain West in Week 7 of the college football season?

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

Encouragements and letdowns from the week that was.

Conference play was in full swing on Friday night and Saturday and who knew that college football and spooky season would have so much in common? Six Mountain West clashes begat four results decided by eight or fewer points, leaving just about everyone on the edge of their seats all weekend long.

Who’s living with the horrors in the aftermath, though? Here are the winners and losers from Week 7 of Mountain West football.

Winners

1. Air Force

If any questions existed about whether the Falcons were the class of the Mountain West, they were silenced until further notice on Saturday with a hard-fought 34-27 victory at home against Wyoming.

The Cowboys had been widely considered Air Force’s toughest opponent to date and they did jump out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter, but after the Falcons went three-and-out on their first possession, they would score on five straight drives and later overcome two fumbles in a row to get their biggest play of the game when they needed it most, a 58-yard John Lee Eldridge III touchdown to give the Falcons a lead they wouldn’t relinquish with about two minutes left in the game.

Now one of only two undefeated teams in Mountain West play, Air Force controls its destiny headed into the first leg of the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy round-robin next Saturday. Perhaps it’s fitting for a team that already plays its home games a mile above sea level, but the sky is now the limit for Troy Calhoun’s cadets.

2. UNLV

For a college athlete, few things must feel better than pasting a bitter rival on their home field. That’s exactly what the Rebels did on Saturday in a 45-27 pasting of the Nevada Wolf Pack, just the second time since 2005 that the program has won back-to-back contests in the Silver State clash.

Though UNLV has made huge strides throughout the season thanks to a deep stable of running backs, Week 7 was Donovyn Lester’s time to shine with touchdown runs of one, 16, and 66 yards on just ten carries. Freshman quarterback Jayden Maiava also had the best overall game of his young career by completing 20-of-25 throws for 257 yards and two touchdowns, while the defense generated three sacks, five three-and-outs and three takeaways. It was a total team effort for the team’s biggest Fremont Cannon victory in nearly two decades, and they aren’t done yet.

3. Colorado State

When Dallin Holker scooped the tip drill into his hands mere inches above the end zone turf to seal the Rams’ stunning 31-30 comeback victory over Boise State, the program’s first-ever win against the Broncos exorcised a wealth of demons.

While the furious fourth-quarter rally deservedly received attention in the aftermath, it took the entire second half to erase deficits of 17-0 and 30-10 and seal the deal. The defense stiffened, forcing two key three-and-outs and limiting the Broncos to 4.3 yards per play after giving up 7.0 YPP in the first two quarters. The offense, meanwhile, came to life and managed 7.2 YPP in the last 30 minutes after wasting three first-half Boise State turnovers.

Does this mean the program has finally turned a corner under head coach Jay Norvell? It’s hard to say, but perhaps they’re learning to play more effectively under pressure since CSU is now 2-1 on the year in games decided by eight or fewer points. Regardless of what happens from here, fans in Fort Collins are going to remember this one for a long time.

Losers

1. Boise State

Then again, you might say the same of the blue and orange faithful for the opposite reason. The two-quarterback gambit didn’t work as effectively as it did against San Jose State in Week 6 because Maddux Madsen and Taylen Green combined to finish 16-of-25 for 140 yards with two interceptions. Ashton Jeanty had another Herculean performance (254 all-purpose yards, three touchdowns), but the Broncos offense doesn’t appear to have any consistently reliable options outside of him and Jonah Dalmas.

The defense, though. After holding Colorado State to five three-and-outs on their first six offensive possessions, they had few answers for Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi down the stretch: He finished the game by completing 11 of his last 17 attempts, including four explosive pass plays totaling 116 yards, and three touchdowns in the last six minutes. It was the latest evidence of something systemic we haven’t seen before in Boise, evidenced by another ten missed tackles (according to Pro Football Focus), and it may not be the kind of thing this coaching staff can solve in time to salvage the 2023 campaign.

2. Hawaii head coach Timmy Chang

Facing a ten-point deficit at your opponent’s 30-yard line with one minute left in the game, do you push for the end zone or settle for three points and hope for a lucky bounce? In Chang’s case, he opted for the latter; while Matthew Shipley was true from 47 yards, Hawaii never got the ball back and suffered a 41-34 at home to San Diego State.

Chang was apologetic about the decision-making during his post-game press conference, but social media reactions were divided about whether he needed to be. Making the decision on second down rather than rolling the dice, especially after quarterback Brayden Schager had completed back-to-back 17- and 21-yard passes, didn’t sit well with many fans, serving as a reminder that the role of head coach can often be a very difficult one.

3. New Mexico defensive coordinator Troy Reffett

It was always going to be a tall order replacing both Rocky Long and the defensive talent that left the program through the transfer portal last off-season, but the Lobos appear to be regressing badly here after a 52-24 shellacking by San Jose State.

The Spartans mustered 10.8 yards per play, the highest average by a New Mexico opponent since 2016, thanks to 15 explosive plays that added up to a whopping 472 yards. Two defensive holding and two pass interference calls didn’t help matters, either, so unless they can find some answers quickly, the bounceback hoped for by UNM supporters may not materialize this fall.

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Boise State vs. Colorado State: Game Preview, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction

The CSU Rams welcome the Boise State Broncos to Fort Collins for homecoming. Here’s how CSU can beat the Broncos for the first time ever.

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Boise State vs. Colorado State: Game Preview, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction

The Rams wear Pumpkin to celebrate Ag Day

Contact/Follow @J0shFr3d & @MWCwire

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Can the Rams have an easy one?

WEEK 7: Boise State Broncos (3-3, 2-0 MW) vs Colorado State Rams (2-3, 0-1 MW)

WHEN: Saturday, October 14th — 7:45 p.m. MST / 6:45 p.m. PST

WHERE: Canvas Stadium; Fort Collins, CO (36,500)

WEATHER: Partly Cloudy, 64 degrees at kickoff

TV: Fox Sports 1 (Stream Fox Sports 1 on Fubo and click the link here for a free trial)

RADIO: K99-FM 99.1 / ESPN 1600 AM

SERIES RECORD: This will be the 13th all time matchup between these two schools. Boise won 49-10 in Boise last season.

WEBSITES: BroncoSports.com, the official Boise State athletics website | CSURams.com, the official Colorado State athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Boise State | Colorado State

ODDS: Boise -8.5

OVER/UNDER: 60.5

SP+ PROJECTION: Boise State by 12.2

FEI PROJECTION: Boise State by 10.8

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: Boise State has a 81.53% win probability (32.78 to 19.31)

Now to the keys to victory for the Rams.

Keys to a colorado state victory

1. Composure

The Rams have been a boom or bust team this year. Sometimes within the same game. In order to earn their first ever win over Boise State, CSU isn’t going to have to stay composed. They can’t get too high or too low. Play the game as it comes to them and they have a chance.

2. Play Smart Defense

The Rams grew frustrated last week and through the kitchen sink at the Aggies. Unfortunately, Utah State seemed to have a perfect answer every time. Against Boise State, the Rams have to keep everything in front of them. Mohamed Kamara is a game time decision and if he can’t go others will have to step up.

3. Take what the defense gives you

Another game time decision in Tory Horton. And again, if Horton can’t go, the offense has to stpe up. The offense for the Rams let them down last week, this week they need to step up. They can’t try too much, but should only take what the defense gives them.

Prediction

It’s homecoming in Fort Collins. The Rams seem to play the Broncos close in Fort Collins, for the most part. This could be the day, but I don’t see the Rams getting their first win over Boise State. CSU will keep it close, but the Broncos will put it out in the end.

Final Score: Boise State 38, Colorado State 31

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Week 7 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets

The Mountain West rolls on and we once again look at where you should place your money this week.

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Week 7 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets

A look at the Mountain West betting odds for Week 7

Contact/Follow @J0shFr3d & @MWCwire

What are the oddsmakers saying about these match ups?

Late in the week we will look at odds and recent lines and make our best picks and bets. Odds courtesy of Vegas Insider.

We went 1-2 in week six and are 33-23-1 on the year. Another week below .500. At this point, just take the opposite of what I do.

Fresno State @ Utah state (+5.5, O/U 54.5)

Fresno State’s defense is allowing less than 300 yards a game. Utah State hasn’t really faced good defenses this year outside of Air Force and Iowa. The Bulldogs offense is going to drive this scoreline. If they can finish drives, they’ll cover easy. If they can’t, it will be a close one.

Pick: Fresno State -5.5

UNLV @ Nevada (+7.5, O/U 53.5)

Rivalry games usually mean you throw the stats out of the window. However, this year’s Nevada team is the exception to the rule. They are next to last in almost all categories. UNLV on the other hand is one of this years surprises. Barry Odom has this team on the verge of bowl eligibility in year one. The Rebels offense is still finding an identity but they execute well.

Pick: UNLV -7.5

San Jose State @ New Mexico (+7.5, O/U 55.5)

The Spartans are not the team anyone thought they were going to be this year. They are really struggling on offense. New Mexico has been a surprise. They have somewhat of an offense and seem to be trending in the right direction. I think they’ll surprise people in this game and cover, if not outright win.

Pick: New Mexico +7.5

Wyoming @ Air Force (-11.5, O/U 42.5)

Yeah, no idea what to really go with here. Craig Bohl has a winning record against Air Force. This is Air Force’s first real test of the year. This seems like the perfect time for a ball control classic from Troy Calhoun. Expect the Falcons to slog it out one play at a time and take 10 minutes per drive.

Pick: Under

Boise State @ Colorado state (+8.5, O/U 60.5)

Slam the over right now! I’m comfortable taking the over up to 69.5. I feel it could go 80+, but you never know. Both defenses have been horrible and both offenses have shown they can light it up at times. The Rams are on homecoming and coming off an embarrassing loss, so lets see what happens.

Pick: Over

San Diego State @ Hawai’i (+6, O/U 52.5)

Umm, yeah. What to really do here. Hawai’i seems like they can cover here. They have a decent defense against a horrid Aztecs offense. The really battle will come down to whether or not the Warriors can move the ball. They’ve struggled at times this year, but the Aztecs aren’t the defense we’ve known them to be this season.

Pick: Hawai’i +6

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Mountain West Football: 2023 Midseason Team Grades

How has each Mountain West team fared now that the season is half-finished? We grade offense, defense, and special teams.

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Mountain West Football: 2023 Midseason Team Grades

How has each Mountain West team fared now that the season is half-finished? We grade offense, defense, and special teams.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS and @MWCwire

Who’s made the grade and who hasn’t?

Now that most Mountain West teams have played six games, the conference’s 2023 football season has reached its halfway point. While some things have played out as predicted, several squads are rising while others have fallen off, which means now is as good a time as any to assess just how well each team has done.

First, for the sake of context, keep these links handy as some particular statistics will be mentioned in most team sections:

Midseason Grades By Team

Air Force | Boise State | Colorado State | Fresno State | Hawaii | Nevada | New Mexico | San Diego State | San Jose State | UNLV | Utah State | Wyoming

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Mountain West Football: Week 6 Winners And Losers

Andrew Peasley, Utah State’s wide receivers, and Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi headline the week’s winners and losers in Mountain West football.

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Mountain West Football: Week 6 Winners And Losers

Who came out ahead and who left something to be desired across the Mountain West in Week 6 of the college football season?

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

Encouragements and letdowns from the week that was.

You might have believed there wouldn’t be a lot of high drama with just three conference games on the schedule this past Saturday, but between ranked teams succumbing on the road and two more epic rallies, well, you should have known better than to think that.

Here are the winners and losers from Week 6 of Mountain West football.

Winners

1. Wyoming quarterback Andrew Peasley

Peasley has been the focus of a lot of consternation over the last couple of seasons, but his performance on Saturday night justifies what Cowboys head coach Craig Bohl saw in old “Boot Leather” the entire time.

The graduate quarterback from La Grande, Oregon had what was arguably the best overall game of his career in a 24-19 win over #24 Fresno State on Saturday night, completing 19-of-27 passes for 183 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for two second-quarter first downs on three carries. There’s still plenty for the 5-1 Cowboys left to do, especially with a titanic road game against undefeated Air Force next week, but for one week Peasley has earned every plaudit.

2. Utah State wide receivers Jalen Royals, Terrell Vaughn, and Micah Davis

Once again, the Aggies got off to a painfully slow start in the first quarter against Colorado State, but the trio of Royals, Vaughn, and Davis made sure the Utah State offense would generate yet another explosive turnaround in a 44-24 decision against the Rams.

Besides being the only Aggies pass catchers with a reception in the game, all three went for over 100 yards. They became the first Utah State triplet to do so since 1996, but the bigger accomplishment may be the 387 receiving yards and four touchdowns for which they combined on just 19 total receptions. All of a sudden, USU is one of just ten FBS offenses with at least 30 plays of 20-plus yards through the air at this juncture of the season, one more reason why they remain the conference’s ultimate wild card.

3. Boise State wide receiver Eric McAlister

Ashton Jeanty put up his usual big numbers for the Broncos in their season-saving rally against San Jose State, but the home team might not have been able to complete their 35-27 comeback against the Spartans if their young star receiver hadn’t helped to start it in the first place.

Down 17-0 in the early second quarter, McAlister slipped a tackle for a pivotal 83-yard catch-and-run touchdown reception and would eventually finish the game with a team-high five catches for 170 yards. That included a key 44-yard grab at the end of the third quarter which would set up Taylen Green’s scoring keeper two plays later and give Boise State the lead for good.

Losers

1. Colorado State quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi

Entering Week 6, the young Rams signal-caller led the nation by the Sickos Committee’s DETMER metric. After Saturday night, he might still be #1 in DETMER but not for reasons anyone in Fort Collins enjoyed.

Fowler-Nicolosi had what was easily the worst game of his young career against Utah State, completing 26-of-57 throws for 225 yards and three interceptions. According to Pro Football Focus, it could have been a lot worse since the sophomore tallied eight turnover-worthy throws in those 57 dropbacks (though he also had to deal with five drops, as well). In any case, BFN now owns a 5% interception rate on 199 attempts, a rate that is simply far too high if CSU has any hope of rallying to clinch bowl eligibility.

2. San Jose State

The Spartans simply do not have any juice in 2023. If that wasn’t apparent before Week 6, it certainly was after SJSU blew a 27-7 second-quarter lead and allowed 28 straight Boise State points in an eight-point road loss.

There’s really no one culprit for the collapse, either. This isn’t the first time that quarterback Chevan Cordeiro has failed to raise his game when the chips are down, for instance, as he completed 14 of his first 19 passes but finished 9-of-19 with an interception down the stretch. Somehow, running back Kairee Robinson didn’t have a single carry in the fourth quarter. The defense managed to create some early headaches for the Broncos’ unusual two-quarterback approach, but they finished the evening having allowed 319 yards on 11 chunk plays and lost Tre Smith to an easy targeting call that will keep him out of the first half of their contest next week.

In all, it was a terribly disappointing performance in a season where that has become uncomfortably common.

3. Fresno State

Jeff Tedford’s Bulldogs don’t really have anyone to blame but themselves for their “close, but no cigar” showing against Wyoming on Saturday. The offensive line did not have a particularly good time against the Cowboys’ defensive front, coughing up three sacks while running backs Malik Sherrod and Elijah Gilliam managed a combined 3.93 yards per carry (and that’s to say nothing of Mikey Keene’s injury).

Meanwhile, the Fresno State defense was uncharacteristically penalty-prone, racking up seven flags which totaled 86 yards. The Bulldogs deserve credit for battling back to give themselves a chance to steal the win on their final drive, but they no longer control their own destiny in the race to the Mountain West’s top two spots and, much like everyone else in the conference, are vulnerable to getting upended again if they can’t resolve the concerns that reared their ugly heads in Laramie.

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Week 6 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets

The Mountain West takes a little break as there are only 3 games this week. Here’s what you should be looking for this week.

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Week 6 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets

A look at the Mountain West betting odds for Week 6

Contact/Follow @J0shFr3d & @MWCwire

What are the oddsmakers saying about these match ups?

Late in the week we will look at odds and recent lines and make our best picks and bets. Odds courtesy of Vegas Insider.

We went 4-3 in week five and are 32-21-1 on the year. First week above .500 in a few. Lets make it two in a row.

#24 Fresno State @ Wyoming (+6.5, O/U 42.5)

The premier matchup of the Mountain West season so far. The Bulldogs head to Laramie to face the Cowboys on Fox. Fresno State hasn’t missed a beat after losing Jake Haener to graduation. Wyoming still doesn’t have a quarterback. I think the Bulldogs remain in control of the MW.

Pick: Fresno State -6.5

Colorado State @ Utah State (+2.5, O/U 62.5)

A game between two top offenses and two bottom defenses. This game will determine bowl eligibility for both squads. CSU has started picking it up on offense and the defense needs to come along with it. Utah State is a second half team, but the Aggies will struggle to contain the Rams offense.

Pick: Colorado State -2.5

San Jose State @ Boise State (-9.5, O/U 57.5)

Boise hasn’t shown me enough this year to be confident in this spread. Their defense hasn’t been great and has just enough holes to let the Spartans get some scores to push this total higher. The over hasn’t moved since it game out and it’s probably a safe bet to hit.

Pick: Over

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San Jose State vs. Boise State: Why The Broncos Can Win, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction

The Spartans and Broncos both hope to turn their season around in an early conference tilt. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.

San Jose State vs. Boise State: Why The Broncos Can Win, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction

The Spartans and Broncos both hope to turn their season around in an early conference tilt. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS and @MWCwire

Who will survive?

WEEK 6: San Jose State Spartans (1-4, 0-1 Mountain West) vs. Boise State Broncos (2-3, 1-0 MW)

WHEN: Saturday, October 7 — 6:00 PM MT/5:00 PM PT

WHERE: Albertsons Stadium; Boise, ID

WEATHER: Clear, low of 52 degrees

TV: CBS Sports Network

STREAMING: Fans can sign up to receive a free one-week trial of Fubo, which includes CBS Sports Network, by following this link.

RADIO: The San Jose State broadcast can be found in and around San Jose on 860 AM (KTRB). The Boise State broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the Bronco Radio Network, including flagship KBOI (670 AM and 93.1 FM) in Boise.

SERIES RECORD: Boise State leads the all-time series, 14-1. In the last meeting on December 19, 2020, the Spartans defeated the Broncos, 34-20, in the Mountain West championship game.

LAST GAME: San Jose State lost at home to Air Force, 45-20, while Boise State lost on the road to Memphis, 35-32.

WEBSITES: SJSUSpartans.com, the official San Jose State athletics website | BroncoSports.com, the official Boise State athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): San Jose State | Boise State

ODDS: Boise State -9.5

SP+ PROJECTION: Boise State by 11.2

FEI PROJECTION: Boise State by 14.0

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: Boise State 73.87% win probability (33.48-23.89)

The Boise State Broncos head into a critical Week 6 matchup with the San Jose State Spartans looking to right more than one recent wrong.

Not only do the Broncos hope to put their disappointing performance in non-conference play behind them, they can keep pace with Mountain West-leading Air Force and improve to 2-0 in conference play with a win over SJSU. Owing to quirks in the schedule over the past few seasons, this is also the first time Boise State has clashed with the Spartans since the Mountain West championship game three years ago, so a measure of revenge is almost certainly on their minds, as well.

Here’s what Boise State can do to secure a win over the Spartans.

Three Keys to a Boise State Victory

1. Who’s Brett Rypien and who’s Montell Cozart?

One of the biggest nuggets to come out of Andy Avalos’s weekly press conference was the revelation that Taylen Green and Maddux Madsen will split time at quarterback against the Spartans. While he was correct that this is something the Broncos have done before, the circumstances in which they’ve utilized a pair of QBs with complementary skill sets have varied over the years: Montell Cozart was used situationally, but you can’t really pigeon-hole his usage; Jaylen Henderson took over down the stretch in 2019 for an injured Hank Bachmeier; and Green himself came on in relief of Bachmeier at times last year before Madsen began to do the same this fall.

A 50-50 split doesn’t seem likely, so who will be responsible for what? Green has struggled badly as a third-down passer, for instance, but he’s also run for six first downs in nine third-down rushing attempts. Madsen has the higher overall completion rate and yards per attempt, but Pro Football Focus notes that his big-time throw rate is nearly half of Green’s (2.9% to 4.9%) and his pressure-to-sack ratio is considerably higher (8.3% to 28.6%). Putting one or the other, let alone both, in a position to succeed will be a difficult problem for offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan to solve.

2. Get the ball to Eric McAlister.

Outside of Jeanty, no one else on the Broncos offense has proven to be as reliable as their six-foot-four sophomore pass catcher. He’s already seen 47 targets, fifth-most in the Mountain West, and dropped just one pass while leading the team with 25 catches and 436 receiving yards. More importantly, though, his nine receptions of 20-plus yards not only lead the conference but are as many as San Jose State’s top three receivers (Dominick Mazotti, Nick Nash, Charles Ross) combined.

That could be important because SJSU’s pass defense has often been gashed by the stronger offenses they have faced in 2023: USC and Oregon State each averaged nearly ten yards per attempt and Air Force was 2-for-2 on its rare attempts against the Spartans two weeks ago. It’s a dimension of the game that could get glossed over with the ongoing quarterback controversy, but McAlister’s ability to flip field position by himself could come in handy.

3. Don’t be shy about leaning on Ashton Jeanty and the rest of the ground game.

Everyone knows what Jeanty can accomplish at this point, but it wouldn’t be surprising if others like Jambres Dubar also had a field day against this Spartans defense. That’s because just about every metric, traditional or advanced, projects a potentially huge advantage for Boise State’s running backs and San Jose State’s front seven, which has seen its stuff rate drop from 20% in 2022 to 15% this fall and allowed 5.54 yards per carry against FBS competition this year, an average that ranks 125th in the country.

Prediction

The Broncos aren’t in an ideal spot, but they’re catching the Spartans at an ideal time to get right. It is likely to come down to whichever defense can make more stops, but it helps that Boise State has the best player on the field so, no matter the other ongoing concerns, that should be enough to get them to 2-0 in Mountain West play.

Boise State 38, San Jose State 27

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Boise State Football: QBs Maddux Madsen, Taylen Green To Split Time vs. San Jose State

The Broncos introduce a new-old wrinkle as they look to turn their season around and keep their heads above water in conference play.

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Boise State Football: QBs Maddux Madsen, Taylen Green to Split Time vs. San Jose State

The Broncos will introduce a new-old wrinkle as they look to turn their season around and keep their heads above water in conference play.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

What’s old is new on the blue.

Things haven’t gone according to plan for the Boise State Broncos in 2023, so head coach Andy Avalos announced during his weekly press conference on Monday that quarterbacks Maddux Madsen and Taylen Green will both see the field during the Broncos’ clash against San Jose State on Saturday.

This isn’t the first time that Boise State has dipped into this particular well, as Avalos himself noted, since both Brett Rypien and Montell Cozart saw time under center for the Broncos during their 2017 Mountain West championship run. The gambit does take place under much different circumstances this time, however, as Green has started every game thus far but struggled with consistency, completing only 52.6% of his throws for 938 yards, four touchdowns, and four interceptions.

Madsen, meanwhile, has been relatively effective in relief so far, completing 22-of-32 attempts for 319 yards and four touchdowns. However, according to Pro Football Focus, the disparity in performance may be less clear-cut: Green, of course, adds a dimension to the offense with his legs, with 203 sack-adjusted rushing yards to date, but his big-time throw percentage is up from 2022, as well, and currently outpaces Madsen’s own (4.9% to 2.9%). PFF also notes that Green’s receivers have already dropped as many passes, eight, as they had in his whole redshirt freshman year last fall.

Whoever ends up seeing the lion’s share of the workload will be under pressure to perform against a Spartans secondary that was overrun by the likes of USC and Oregon but held their own against Cal Poly and Toledo in non-conference action. We’ll see with which cohort the Broncos are more closely aligned when the game kicks off at 6:00 PM Mountain/5:00 PM Pacific on CBS Sports Network this Saturday.

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