Tag: bob quinn

What does a 2021 salary cap floor of $175 million mean for the Lions?

The NFL salary cap floor has been set at $175 million for the 2021 season. But how will that impact the Detroit Lions? General manager Bob Quinn will have a tough task ahead of him preparing for an unanticipated $23 million drop in available funds, but due to good planning, they are prepared.

On Friday, the NFL and NFLPA reached an agreement on an addendum to the collective bargaining agreement that puts the league on schedule to have training camp and the regular season start on time in 2020.

One of the key decisions made was how to distribute the anticipated losses in revenue from the 2020 season due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

This is both an NFL and NFLPA issue mainly because the league salary cap is determined based on profit/loss from the previous season. With massive losses expected in 2020, the 2021 salary cap was estimated to drop roughly $70 million — which would have been detrimental to how the league operates in the offseason.

In order to soften the impact from the 2020 losses in revenue, the NFL and NFLPA agreed to spread the losses out over a four year period (2021-2024), keep the 2020 salary cap at $198.2 million, and set a floor for the 2020 salary cap at $175 million. If the 2020 losses aren’t as great as anticipated, then the 2021 cap could see an increase.

By setting the floor for 2021, it will allow general managers the ability to begin planning for the future now. That could mean teams will be spending less money in 2020 in order to gain available rollover funds for 2021, targeting contract extensions with lower cap hits in the next few seasons, and even contract restructuring to shift player payments around.

This will be a challenging task for about half the league.

As of today, if every team’s 2020 salary cap space remained the same, they were able to roll over the extra space in its entirety, and the 2021 salary cap stayed at an estimated $175 million, eight teams would open the offseason over the cap — including the Vikings and Bears — while another eight would have less than $17 million available to spend — including the Packers.

The Lions are right in the middle of the pack. They currently have 44 players signed for through the 2021 seasons at a cost of $175 million, but with an opportunity to roll over nearly $23 million from 2020, they are in decent shape before making any future contractual decisions.

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This situation should not prevent the Lions from handing out contract extensions to current players like Kenny Golladay, Taylor Decker, or Matt Prater, but it could preclude them from signing many more free agents in 2020.

This will be an important year for any Lions player making more than $3 million per season in 2021, save the ones with lots of guaranteed money left on their deals. Players like Justin Coleman, Desmond Trufant, Jesse James, Nick Williams, Danny Shelton, Chase Daniel, Christian Jones, and Joe Dahl will need solid performances in 2020 to justify their 2021 deals. While players in contract years like Marvin Jones Jr. Danny Amendola, Romeo Okwara, Duron Harmon, and Jarrad Davis will be playing for future contracts.

The potential losses from the 2020 season will likely change the way teams approach player contracts over the next half-decade but with the financial parameters being established now, general managers like the Lions’ Bob Quinn can get to work on setting their team up for the future.

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Bob Quinn ranked as the worst NFL GM by Rotoworld

Quinn ranks 30th but new hires are not included in Daugherty’s individual rankings

Bob Quinn is the worst GM in the NFL. That’s one man’s opinion, and Patrick Daugherty of fantasy football site Rotoworld unleashed it upon the wired world this week.

Quinn ranks 30th in Daugherty’s ratings, but because new hires are excluded from the process it’s effectively dead last.

Daugherty’s preface on his own, completely arbitrary rankings:

All front office activity — from players and coaches to draft picks and contracts — is taken into consideration. Past achievements are not forgotten, but recent history is given greater emphasis. Even in a results-based business, the process is vital.

The commentary hits all the familiar points that critics chronically (and often rightfully) use to chastise Quinn:

  • Lack of impact players across the roster
  • Collecting Patriots castoffs
  • Firing Jim Caldwell after consecutive 9-7 seasons

For context, Quinn ranked 24th last season in Daughtery’s annual concoction. He was 19th in the 2018 edition. Not that a 3-12-1 finish merits any uptick, but based on previous rankings it’s clear Quinn just isn’t ever going to impress Daugherty.

Lions’ salary cap guru Mike Disner tabbed as an NFL ‘rising star’ by the Athletic

Recently, the Athletic’s Lindsay Jones identified the top 40 rising stars (under 40-year-olds) who were shaping the direction of the NFL and Detroit Lions’ Vice President of football administration Mike Disner made the list.

Recently, the Athletic’s Lindsay Jones identified the top 40 rising stars (under 40-year-olds) who were shaping the direction of the NFL (paid $) and Detroit Lions’ Vice President of football administration Mike Disner made the list.

“The Lions’ vice president of football administration started out as a Patriots summer intern while working toward an economics degree and playing baseball at Williams College in Williamstown, Mass.,” Jones said. “Disner worked in scouting for the Patriots after that, then transitioned to the NFL’s Management Council leading into the 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement. Seven seasons as contract negotiator and cap analyst for the Cardinals and Lions rounds out his NFL resume.”

Disner, a West Bloomfield native, is no stranger to “rising star” honors after being named to Forbes “30 Under 30” list, recognizing the top 30 athletes or executives under 30 years of age back in 2014.

In just over a year and a half with the Lions — he was hired in January of 2018 — Disner’s experience and expertise managing the salary cap has been a huge asset for general manager Bob Quinn and he is a large reason why the Lions are set up to withstand a potential drop in NFL salary cap after 2020 season.

Under Disner’s leadership, the Lions currently have around $23 million in salary cap space for the 2020 season — 5th most in the NFL — and if the 2021 salary cap stays the same, the Lions could enter the offseason with upwards of $50 million in available funds for the second year in a row.

On behalf of Lions Wire, congrats to Disner on the recognition!

Projecting Kenny Golladay’s next contract

Detroit Lions wide receiver Kenny Golladay is in the final year of his rookie contract and could be in line for a contract extension.

Detroit Lions general manager Bob Quinn typically targets training camp as a prime time of the year to hand out contract extensions to key players within the organization. Players who are in the final year of their deals and possess longterm upside will often get contract extension offers with the hope of locking them up for the next four or five seasons.

Of the 50 available Lions in contract years, only a handful will be considered for extension and wide receiver Kenny Golladay should top the list. But what might that extension look like?

Let’s take a look at where Golladay is in his development, his upside, and what comparable players at his position are making in order to project what his extension could be.

Development

The Lions selected Golladay with pick 96 overall in the 2017 draft and was slowly worked into the wide receiver rotation as a rookie. By his sophomore season, he earned a starting role and was developing at a rapid enough pace that the Lions felt comfortable trading away Golden Tate and giving Golladay a larger amount of responsibility. He thrived, finishing the season with over 1,000 yards receiving.

In year three, Golladay established himself as the Lions’ number one receiver, once again topped 1,000 yards receiving, led the NFL in touchdown receptions with 11, received his first Pro Bowl nomination, and earned a contract boost due to the league’s performance escalator clause — increasing this year’s contract from $929,706 to $2.3 million.

“Over the last two seasons,” Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar pointed out, “Golladay has more receiving yards (2,253) than Amari Cooper, Stephon Diggs, Jarvis Landry, and Odell Beckham Jr. Golladay’s 16 receiving touchdowns over the last two seasons tie him with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Cooper Kupp, Antonio Brown, and Eric Ebron for third-best in the NFL. And he ranks eighth in that time in yards per target (9.59) among receivers with at least 100 catches.”

Upside

Heading into the 2020 season, Golladay is on a plethora of watchlists, including landing just outside the Top-10 of wide receivers to watch based on an ESPN poll of NFL executives, coaches, scouts, and players.

Golladay has gotten better each of his three years in the NFL and most anticipate he has yet to reach his ceiling. With a healthy Matthew Stafford — remember, he achieved last year’s success with Jeff Driskel and David Blough throwing him the ball for half the season — putting up top-5 receiving numbers in future seasons is within reach.

Comparable players and their contracts

As Farrar pointed out above, statistically Golladay is in the ballpark with Amari Cooper, Stephon Diggs, Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham Jr., Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Cooper Kupp.

When examining where Golladay’s next contract should land, the conversation should begin with these players. Cooper landed a new contract this season that averages $20 million, Beckham averages $18 million, Evans $16.5 million, Landry $15.1 million, with Diggs’ $14.4 million likely being the floor. Godwin and Kupp, like Golladay, are in the final years of their rookie contracts and are also candidates for extensions.

With contracts constantly on the rise, it can be a challenging task to project player’s value. Cooper’s latest market setting wide receiver deal may have established a baseline for a Golladay deal, but it’s also just as likely the Cowboys overpaid.

Spotrac.com — a salary cap focused website — uses Calculated Market Share to project player’s potential new contracts based on comparable players and used their formula to project new deals for Golladay, Godwin, and Kupp. Here are the results:

So why does Golladay’s projection average over $2 million more per year? It comes down his perceived upside and to the types of players Spotrac believes are comparable to Golladay. Per Spotrac, Godwin and Kupp compare to players like Diggs, Landry, Adam Thielen, and Brandon Cooks. While Golladay is compared to Cooper, Thomas, and Beckham Jr.

You can bet the conversations between the Lions and Golladay’s agent are using similar strategies of comparison. While the Lions will be pushing for deals closer to the Godwin/Kupp range, Golladay’s agent is surely following Spotrac’s lead and comparing him to the top receivers in the game.

Projection

If the Lions let Golladay get to the 2021 free agency period his price tag will skyrocket. Even though the NFL is set to take a loss of profits in 2020, the Lions are in a good situation to withstand a potential future drop in salary cap space and should use this opportunity to get ahead of the game and lock up one of their young superstars.

As much as Golladay would benefit from landing Spotrac’s projected $18.9 million per year, I have a hard time believing the Lions would go beyond next year’s anticipated franchise tag, which would be somewhere in the range of $18 million — this year’s number was $17.865 million but should see a slight increase after Cooper’s deal and the salary cap is expected to stay the same in 2021.

A four year, $72 million deal, averaging $18 million a year, would put Golladay on par with Beckham Jr. and Tyreek Hill, tied for the fifth-highest receiver contracts in the NFL, while also matching the contract average the Lions gave Trey Flowers in 2019.

Is Golladay worth that high of salary? I don’t think it’s far off.

The next tier under Beckham Jr./Hill’s $18 million is Evans at $16.5 million, with Cooks, Thielen, and DeAndre Hopkins all averaging $16.2 million. Factoring in contract inflation and now we’re in the $17 million range.

At the end of the day, that’s where I see this contract landing. Averaging somewhere between $17 and $18 million per season, and structured as a 4-year contract totaling between $68 and $72 million, with $36-40 million guaranteed.

Lions set up to withstand a potential drop in NFL salary cap after 2020 season

With the NFL expected to take losses due to COVID-19, future salary caps are expected to drop, but the Detroit Lions are set up to survive.

The NFL and NFLPA still have a lot to figure out before the start of the 2020 season, and while player safety remains priority one, there are major concerns surrounding the economic fallout from the season, as it could have long term implications.

One potential area of impact will be on future salary caps. Each offseason the NFL salary is determined based on a complicated formula that is derived from how much profit the league generated the year prior.

Here’s an overly simplified explanation. The league determines how much profit it made in year X, then allocates 48-percent of that number to the following years player cost. Player cost is split into two parts, benefits (health insurance, disability insurance, etc) and salary (wages). After removing money for benefits, the remaining salary portion determines the salary cap.

Over the past decade, the league has made sizable profits, and in turn, the salary cap has risen. In 2011, the salary cap was $120 million, saw a slight uptick to $120.6 million in 2012, then increased to $123 million in 2013. But over the last seven years, the salary cap has risen by at least $10 million each year and currently sits at $198.2 million for the 2020 season.

With the NFL expected to take losses due to COVID-19 — potentially up to $3 Billion if fans are not allowed to attend games — future salary caps could take massive hits.

Neither the NFL nor the NFLPA wants to see the salary cap take a step backward and the two have each proposed alternatives for addressing the issue.

The NFL proposed putting 35-percent of the player’s salaries in escrow — holding off paying a portion of the player’s salary for a later date — affording the league the ability to keep profits and salary cap at a reasonable level. But unsurprisingly and understandably that was met with resistance from the players/NFLPA.

The NFLPA offered a counter-proposal:

“All fully guaranteed money paid even if games are canceled” seems like something the owners are unlikely to accept, but the other three points have merit.

If the salary cap holds at $198.2 in 2021, then most teams will be able to sustain the COVID-impact. But if the cap drops, then most teams will be scrambling to make roster adjustments to become cap compliment, meaning some teams will be forced to make big cuts to player contracts.

The problem here stems from nearly a decade of high profitability, along with teams/players anticipating the cap to continue to rise in large chunks, and contracts being designed with a rising salary cap in mind.

When looking ahead, if the salary cap remains at $198.2 million and all teams are able to rollover their current 2020 cap space (highly unlikely), there would still be three teams who would enter the 2021 offseason over the salary cap: the Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints, and Atlanta Falcons.

Fortunately for Detroit Lions fans, after struggling with the salary cap for years, general manager Bob Quinn — and cap specialist Mike Disner — have put the team in a solid financial situation.

Currently, the Lions have 89 of their 90-players under contract — only seventh-round pick Jashon Cornell remains unsigned — and have around $21.6 million available in salary cap room for 2020.

Most salary cap tracking websites have the Lions at $29.1 million in cap room but after signing Jeff Okudah, D’Andre Swift,  Quintez Cephus, and Jason Huntley this week, that number will end up around $7.5 million less as those contracts haven’t been processed yet.

If the 2021 salary cap stays at $198.2, the Lions’ would enter the offseason with roughly $34 million in available space, and depending on how much of the 2020 cap remains for rollover purposes, the Lions could once again be sitting on $50 million available for spending.

This rough estimation would put the Lions salary cap space in the upper half of the league for 2021, while also setting the team up to stay there for the foreseeable future, regardless of how far this year’s anticipated losses extend.

How Lions will likely approach potential roster cuts ahead of training camp

With potential roster cuts ahead of training camp looming, how would the Detroit Lions adjust their roster to maximize player evaluation?

As teams prepare to adjust to COVID-19 protocols, there are still several questions facing the NFL and NFLPA before teams open training camps at the end of the month. Will there be preseason games? How long will camps last? While agreed upon player safety protocols and a possible practice squad expansion also remain undecided.

One move that appears likely to happen ahead of July 28th is the reduction of roster sizes from its current maximum of 90 players down to a reported 75 or 80-players.

On the surface, it may seem pretty straight forward to just release the bottom 10-15 players on the roster, but the timing of these cuts make it a bit more complicated.

Teams use training camp to get into shape, work through existing injuries, absorb the playbook, develop team/positional chemistry, evaluate players, look for hidden talents, and many other things. By taking away players from this equation, teams will have to adjust their approach to training camp and in turn, they will have to be selective on where their team can afford to go lighter at a position.

When examining the Detroit Lions 90-man depth chart, general manager Bob Quinn and coach Matt Patricia will have to consider several factors including:

  • Is there a position group where they have an excess of players?
  • Do they want more youth at one position?
  • More veteran leadership at another?
  • Are there players who are practice squad eligible that they may want to keep around for long-term development?
  • Keeping balanced groups on each side of the ball for one-on-one training sessions

At quarterback, the Lions only have three players — Matthew Stafford, Chase Daniel, and David Blough — and it would be shocking to see them move on from any of them at this point, but the offensive skill players will surely take some hits.

With six running backs, two fullbacks, 12 wide receivers, and five tight ends, the Lions could lose three of four players from these skill groups. Do they need two fullbacks? How about a fifth tight end? The wide receiver group would surely see losses but with the amount of running they do in training camp, they can’t afford to lose too many or they won’t have enough bodies to run routes if they are all gassed.

The offensive and defensive lines will also likely see two to three losses on each side of the ball, which will impede the Lions’ ability to roll through three lines — as they typically do this time of year.

The Lions currently have 13 linebackers — 11 off-the-ball and two JACK linebackers — for two main reasons. First, they are trying to shore up a previously weak position group by adding multiple players and looking for standouts. And secondly, because this is where teams are typically finding players who can excel on special teams under the recent rule changes.

Based purely on numbers alone, the Lions can afford to lose two to three players from the linebacker group, but it will surely impact their ability to train on special teams.

Corners may be the most important position group on defense, and with the Lions having nine on the current roster, can they lose any of them? They have eight safeties, but with three of them being undrafted rookies, this seems like a more vulnerable group.

Again, special teams come into play here and the defensive backs with the least amount of experience could be on the chopping block, which is a shame. We may not get the chance to find out if there another C.J. Moore-type in this group.

On the kicking team the Lions have a punting battle brewing between Jack Fox and Aaron Siposs, which means the Lions are likely to keep both, but can they also afford to keep two long snappers where there is less of a battle?

In my latest Roster Stack: Summer edition, I identified 21 players in the final “have work to do” group, and while the cuts will likely come from this group, it’s worth noting that occasionally there are players who rise up out of this group during training camp — hello, Kevin Strong –, but unfortunately this year they may not get that chance.

QIB study of Lions draft class points to an expansion in offensive philosophy

When using Quinn Influenced Benchmarks (QIB) to examine the Detroit Lions 2020 draft class, there appears to be a shift happening on offense.

Quinn Influenced Benchmarks (QIB) — the study of Detroit Lions general manager Bob Quinn’s draft tendencies — has been a staple of Lions Wire draft coverage for the last few seasons, but with the COVID pandemic canceling Pro Days, the process and available data took a massive hit.

As the world adjusts to the changing environment, so does QIB.

Here, we take a slightly modified look at the athletic markers produced by the offensive players in Lions 2020 Draft/UDFA class and apply practical reasoning to predict any changes in the Lions approach to player acquisition or scheme changes for the upcoming season.

Lions add speed to an explosive backfield

D’Andre Swift (2nd) and Jason Huntley (5th)

Explosivity (Burst rate) has always been a targeted trait at running back but in a trend that started last year with Ty Johnson, Quinn has begun adding a speed element (40-yard-dash) into the equation.

Note: NFL Top-30 RB 40 y/d average is 4.54, while a burst score of 120 is above-average and 130 is elite.

Height Weight 40 Burst rate
Kerryon Johnson 5114 213 4.52 131.00
D’Andre Swift 5082 212 4.48 120.85
Bo Scarbrough 6013 228 4.52 132.50
Ty Johnson 5106 213 4.4 120.15
Jason Huntley 5084 182 4.4 132.65
Wes Hills 6005 209 N/A N/A

QIB has previously factored in running backs agility scores (3-cone and short shuttle) but only K. Johnson and Huntly tested in this area, and their scores were just average, which indicates a decreased level of importance on the QIB scale.

Athletically, the Lions were already above average at the position, but with the six backs on the roster, the Lions have two with every-down potential (K. Johnson and Swift), two speed/kick returner options (T. Johnson and Huntley), and two power-based runners (Scarbrough and Hills). Add in the fact that K. Johnson, Swift, and Huntley are above-average pass-catchers, and the Lions have a variety of backs who can play in multiple situations.

While the Lions recent run scheme has focused on inside zone runs, both rookie backs have the speed to get to the edge, and home-run potential, which should open up the types of blocking schemes available to offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell.

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Bob Quinn is happy with where the Lions stand at quarterback

Lions GM Bob Quinn expressed his happiness for where the team stands at QB and explained why he didn’t select any in the 2020 NFL Draft

The Detroit Lions depth chart at quarterback did not change one bit over the last week. GM Bob Quinn stood firm on what the team already has on the roster, not even signing any undrafted free agents following Saturday’s final rounds.

Quinn was a guest of Sirius XM NFL Radio and hosts Alex Marvez and Gil Brandt this week. The Lions GM was asked about the team not selecting any quarterbacks, either early or late in last weekend’s draft.

“We evaluated the quarterback position from top to bottom this year,” Quinn responded. “We were fortunate enough to see Jordan Love (Packers 1st-rounder) at the Senior Bowl, spend time with Tua (Tagovailoa, No. 5 overall to Miami), (Justin, No. 6 overall to the Chargers) Herbert and all these guys.

There were a few guys on our board we liked later (rounds), but when the time came, we had other guys that were rated a little bit higher than them.”

Quinn made it pretty clear the team is set at quarterback and happy about where it stands, too.

“The quarterback position for us is, Matthew (Stafford) is our guy,” Quinn said emphatically. “We signed Chase Daniel to a multi-year deal to be our backup. Experienced, veteran quarterback that has gone in and played in a lot of games. We feel like we upgraded the backup quarterback position with Chase.”

As for a developmental project, Quinn is happy with David Blough.

“Then we have David Blough coming back from last year. He got pressed into action last year late in the season when we had two quarterbacks injured. He was a young kid who kind of got thrown in and he did make some plays for us. He made some rookie mistakes as well, and he’ll grow from that.”

Quinn’s voice was confident and unwavering in reiterating at the end of the answer that “Matthew is our guy” and reinforcing his belief in both Daniel and Blough for their roles.

Report: Lions will decline to pick up Jarrad Davis’ 5th year option

The Detroit Lions have declined to pick up the fifth-year option on 2017 first-round pick Jarrad Davis, making him an unrestricted free agent after the end of 2020 season.

In the past four years as Detroit Lions general manager, Bob Quinn has elected to pick up the fifth-year options on Taylor Decker (2016), Eric Ebron (2014) — who was released before his contract became fully guaranteed — and Ezekiel Ansah (2013), while 2015 first-round pick Laken Tomlinson was traded away before the option came into play.

This year Quinn needed to make a decision on the fifth-year option of 2017 first-round pick Jarrad Davis and according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport — whose report has been confirmed by multiple Lions beat writers –, Quinn has declined to pick it up, making Davis an unrestricted free agent after the end of 2020 season.

This move isn’t overly surprising as Davis had several factors working against him.

The first glaring obstacle is the way the roster has been constructed around him. The Lions recently drafted Jahlani Tavai in the second round of the 2019 draft, gave a contract extension to Christian Jones, and signed high-profile free agent Jamie Collins to a three-year deal — all of which will make Davis’ path to playing time challenging.

Not only will Davis be fighting for time, but he is coming off his worst statistical performance of his three years as a professional. He did five games due to injury — which is also a problem — but his per-game averages all declined. His tackles were below his career average (down from 6.53 to 5.73), as were his sacks (two in 2019 vs a career average of four per season), and passes defended (one in 2019 vs a career average of four per season).

The final — and likely biggest — deterrent for an extension was the cost of the contract. First-round pick selection (Davis was 21st) determines the contract formula, which for Davis is an average of third through 25th highest-paid players at his position (linebacker). That roughly works out to a 1-year, $10 million deal for the 2021 season, much too high for a player who could be in a rotational role moving forward.

Davis is still under contract with the Lions for the 2020 season and has a cap hit of just under $3.5 million. He is also a team captain, leader in the locker room and the team loves him as a person and always speaks highly of his character — but as we learned with Devon Kennard this past offseason, it’s all about what you do on the field.

If he produces between the lines, it’s not out of the question that Davis returns to Detroit in 2021 with a new contract, but there are a lot of obstacles he will need to overcome to make that happen.

Bob Quinn on draft smokescreens: ‘much easier said than done’

Bob Quinn on draft smokescreens: ‘much easier said than done’ in the modern NFL

Count Lions GM Bob Quinn among those who don’t believe in the concept of the NFL draft smokescreen. He dispelled the notion that they work in the modern NFL during a radio interview on Monday.

Quinn was asked why he didn’t try to create more of an illusion that the Lions were interested in drafting Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa to generate possible trade interest in the pick. The GM quickly dismissed the popular fan notion o the smokescreen.

“Much easier said than done,” Quinn told 97.1 The Ticket in Detroit. “Much, much. How do I know that Tua was their guy? How do I know that they didn’t really want an offensive tackle, which they had talked a lot about. There’s so many maybe’s in that conversation, that is why it doesn’t happen in the NFL.”

Quinn also brought up his close relationship with Miami GM Chris Grier, a Detroit native who cut his management teeth with the New England Patriots like Quinn did.

“We all trust each other as GM’s. I worked with Chris Grier for a year my first year in the league,” Quinn stated. “Chris was in New England in 2000. Ultimately, this is a game of poker. On draft weekend, I take no one’s word. I couldn’t sit there and truthfully for the Lions organization consider something like that because you never know what could happen.”

There were no trades in the first 12 picks of the 2020 NFL Draft, which reinforces that the lack of smokescreen effectiveness extends far beyond Detroit. Nobody was really interested in trading, period.