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The Toronto Blue Jays (11-9) and San Diego Padres (11-11) play the 2nd game of a 3-game series at Petco Park Saturday. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Blue Jays lead 1-0
The Blue Jays, who were -102 underdogs, won 5-1 in the series opener Friday as the Under (8) cashed. Veteran 3B Justin Turner hit a HR and an RBI single for the Blue Jays, who have won 5 of their last 6 games.
San Diego has lost back-to-back games, scoring just 1 run over its last 2 outings. The Padres had previous put up 6 or more runs in 3 straight wins over the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers from Sunday-Tuesday.
Blue Jays at Padres projected starters
RHP José Berríos vs. RHP Randy Vásquez
Berríos (3-0, 1.05 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 0.97 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 25 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 5-0 home victory vs. Colorado Rockies Sunday
- 2024 road stats: 1-0, 2.25 ERA (12 IP, 3 ER) in 2 starts
- Career vs. Padres: 0-2, 2.08 ERA (13 IP, 3 ER) in 2 starts
Vásquez (2-2, 2.87 ERA in 2023) makes his season debut. The rookie had a 1.27 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 37 2/3 innings across 5 starts and 6 relief appearances for the New York Yankees last year.
- 2023 home stats: 1-1, 2.25 ERA (20 IP, 5 ER) in 3 starts and 2 relief appearances
- Has never faced Blue Jays before
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Blue Jays at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:54 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Blue Jays -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Padres +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays -1.5 (+145) | Padres +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Blue Jays at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 3, Blue Jays 2
Moneyline
The PADRES (+100) should snap out of their current offensive slump. Padres 3B Manny Machado had his 11-game hit streak come to an end Friday, but he and RF Fernando Tatís Jr. should be able to provide enough offense to keep Berríos winless in his career against San Diego.
Berríos has allowed just 1 earned run over his last 3 starts, but that level of production is unsustainable. He was inconsistent last season and gave up 4 or more earned runs in 11 of his 32 starts.
BET PADRES (+100).
Run line/Against the spread
The Padres +1.5 (-175) should cover the run line, but I prefer risking 70 cents less on the ML for the same profit.
PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.
Over/Under
While it’s unlikely that Berríos can keep playing at this level, I don’t want any part of betting this Over. San Diego has been in a slump for the last 2 games, and Toronto is 22nd in runs per game this season (3.90).
BET UNDER 8 (-120).
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