The question that everyone wants the answer to, at least around Austin, is how do the Texas Longhorns get back? How do they start competing for Big 12 Championships more consistently and make the College Football Playoff for the first time? Coaching can be an argument, but the focus for this exercise is recruiting. Going back to the last 20 years, we compared talent acquisition with on-field success.
Recruiting Breakdown 2002-11
| Year | Five Stars | Four Stars | Three Stars |
| 2002 | 4 | 13 | 8 |
| 2003 | 1 | 8 | 9 |
| 2004 | 2 | 9 | 7 |
| 2005 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 2006 | 2 | 12 | 8 |
| 2007 | 2 | 14 | 8 |
| 2008 | 0 | 15 | 5 |
| 2009 | 2 | 13 | 5 |
| 2010 | 5 | 16 | 3 |
| 2011 | 2 | 12 | 7 |
Recruiting Breakdown 2011-2021
| 2012 | 2 | 20 | 6 |
| 2013 | 1 | 8 | 6 |
| 2014 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
| 2015 | 1 | 13 | 14 |
| 2016 | 0 | 13 | 13 |
| 2017 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| 2018 | 2 | 17 | 8 |
| 2019 | 2 | 15 | 9 |
| 2020 | 1 | 15 | 4 |
| 2021 | 1 | 8 | 10 |
Just a quick glance at the numbers from 2012-21, the biggest takeaway is the sheer number of three-star talent added to the Texas Longhorns. Never once in the previous decade did they add double-digit three-star talent. This decade they have done it five out of 10 times. While you can argue some of the ratings are based on the opinion of the recruiting sites, they seem to hit more than they miss. That is why development is so monumental.
Looking at the recruiting numbers and the results on the field, the Longhorns aren’t winning on the field due to having less talent than in years past. Here is how it breaks down.
| Year | Wins | Losses | Win % | Bowl Wins | Losses | NY6 | 5 Star Avg | Blue Chip % |
| 2002-11 | 103 | 26 | .798 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 2.1 | 67.8 |
| 2012-21 | 64 | 48 | .571 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 59.0 |
The obvious observation is that the Longhorns were winning when they had better talent. That is not a shocking revelation, but that is true of most programs. They saw fewer five-star prospects signing with Texas and less blue-chip talent (four and five stars) coming to the Forty Acres.
Compare their numbers to those teams in the College Football Playoffs top four:
| Alabama | Notre Dame | Clemson | Ohio State | Texas |
| 83% | 56% | 63% | 80% | 64% |
The Longhorns have more blue chip talent than two of the four schools in the top four. Texas as a whole has the fourth-most talent overall according to this report from 247Sports.
Teams that hover around the same level of talent as the Longhorns are Florida, LSU, Oklahoma, and Clemson. All of which have played for a conference championship or participated in the CFP in the last two seasons. Talent isn’t enough as coaching is vitally important as well but that is a different conversation for another day.
The two teams that have 80% or more on their blue-chip ratio have combined for eight total appearances in the playoff. The Longhorns need to get to that level if they expect to compete.
