Tag: bills

Bills-Dolphins odds: Buffalo enters as huge road favorite

Previewing Sunday’s Bills at Dolphins NFL matchup with NFL betting odds, picks and best bets

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The Buffalo Bills (6-3) travel to Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla., for an AFC East tilt with the Miami Dolphins (2-7). Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. We analyze the Bills-Dolphins sports betting odds and lines, with NFL betting picks and tips for the Week 11 matchup.

Bills-Dolphins: Week 11 preview, betting trends and notes

Get some action on this game or others by placing a bet at BetMGM.

  • The Bills are coming off a loss in Cleveland in Week 10, while the Dolphins surprised the Colts in Indianapolis last week.
  • Buffalo topped Miami 31-21 on Oct. 20 in Western New York, although the Dolphins did cover.
  • The Bills are 5-2-1 against the spread in their last eight against AFC foes, while the Dolphins are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their past four vs. AFC.
  • Buffalo has posted a 4-0-1 ATS in the past five road games, but is 1-6-1 ATS in its past eight on the road against teams with a losing home mark.
  • The Buffalo defense ranks third in total yards allowed (304.2), passing yards allowed (188.7) and points allowed (16.7) per game.
  • The Dolphins rank 31st in scoring (13.2 points per game), but they are averaging 18.7 PPG across the past four.
  • Miami enters on a 5-0 ATS streak, too.

Bills at Dolphins: Key injuries

Bills: DE Jerry Hughes (groin) did not practice Friday and is considered questionable, while TE Dawson Knox (knee) practiced in full Friday and is off the injury report.

Dolphins: DE Taco Charlton (elbow), S Reshad Jones (chest), LB Raekwon McMillan (knee) and DE Avery Moss (ankle) are questionable, while CB Ken Webster (ankle) is out.

Bills at Dolphins: Odds, betting lines and prediction

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 1 a.m. ET.

Prediction

Bills 21, Dolphins 17

Moneyline (?)

The Bills (-295) should be able to ease by the Dolphins in South Florida, but a few things concern me about this game. One, the Bills will be playing in the heat and humidity of Miami, although it won’t be blazing hot. And, the Dolphins (+240) suddenly have a belief in themselves after two straight wins against the Jets and Colts.

New to sports betting? A $10 wager on the Bills to win outright returns a $3.40 profit.

Against the Spread (?)

The DOLPHINS (+6.5, -110) were the laughingstock of the league earlier this season, getting their doors blown off in two straight games to open the season. However, they’re 5-0 ATS across the past five and look like an NFL-caliber team again with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. The Bills (-6.5, -110) are a risky play on the road against a team which covered against them in Buffalo in October.

Over/Under (?)

The UNDER 40.5 (-106) is the way to go, although I’d go super light on this one. Miami’s defense is still not a juggernaut, and the Bills are much stronger running the football than slinging it around. As such, running teams equal under results.

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Sean McDermot won’t compare Josh Allen, Tyrod Taylor, but we will

Comparing current Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen to Tyrod Taylor and what Sean McDermott said about it.

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As the story goes, the Bills replaced quarterback Tyrod Taylor with current second-year thrower Josh Allen.

Allen is now 20 starts into his NFL career, he’s 11-9 overall in those games. First compared by Jerry Sullivan from 1270: The Fan radio on Wednesday, the Bills have had strikingly similar numbers from one of their other most recent QBs.

That so happens to be Taylor.

Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott was asked to compare those two. He ushered in the exit of Taylor for Allen, after all.

McDermott declined to do so.

“I’m never going to compare or try to compare two players. I know they play the same position but both players are different players. A lot of respect for Tyrod. The player I’m most concerned with right now is Josh Allen, in terms of this question. Josh is focused on working and improving and it’s important that we keep improving around him as well. He takes great ownership and great accountability in that and as we go offensively, it’s important that we work on scoring points, that’s the name of the game. Score points and give yourself a chance to win,” McDermott said.

But here’s your big comparison. Both players have one excused outing in those last 20 games thanks to Nathan Peterman. He started the 2018 opener and then Allen jumped in. In 2017, he shockingly started over Taylor against the Chargers and Taylor replaced him. So in both of those outings, the outcome didn’t factor into the numbers for Allen and Taylor.

Having said that, Taylor was also 11-9 in his last 20 games as the Bills’ starting quarterback.

In addition, in that same time span, Allen has averaged 196 yards passing per game. Taylor lands at 195 in that same category.

 

Looking deeper, as dual-threat QBs, Allen has 34 total touchdowns in that time frame to 18 interceptions. Taylor is at a 34-8 ratio. Taylor has also thrown for 4,652 passing yards with a completion rate of 62 percent. Allen clocks in at 3,919 and 56 percent.

Breaking down this comparison, there’s still two sides of the coin to consider. First, the last 20 starts for Allen are the first 20 of his career. While there are skeptics, Allen is still young and hopefully there’s room for growth.

Having said that, Taylor wasn’t 22 like Allen, he spent a few years on the bench as a backup with the Ravens. But he wasn’t getting any playing time then, either. He was so basically a rookie as well.

Plenty of variables here to compare as well. Talent around the QBs, etc.

So, make what you will with the comparisons, but those are hard numbers.

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Oddsmakers: Bills road favorite vs. winning Dolphins

Buffalo Bills Miami Dolphins Week 11 odds

The Dolphins enter Week 11 as the winning team in their meeting with the Bills. At least in a “what have you done for me lately” sense.

Despite their best efforts to acquire draft capital and increase its value via losing, the Dolphins are winners of back-to-back games.

The Bills are fresh off losing as an underdog to the Browns, 19-16, in Week 10. The Dolphins recently beat the Colts 16-12.

Despite that, the Bills are the favored team this week over the Dolphins. Per BetMGM, the Bills open as 6.5-point favorites against the Dolphins in Week 11 on the road.

The Bills won 31-21 against the Dolphins earlier this year, but were assisted by a very random Micah Hyde score late in the game after he recovered an onside kick.

Buffalo opened as 15.5-point favorites in their first meeting.

The over/ under for the game is set at 39 points.

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PODCAST: Did the Bills offense hand the Browns a win?

Buffalo Bills podcast following Week 10 loss to the Cleveland Browns.

The Buffalo Bills failed to defeat the Cleveland Browns, falling 19-16 in Cleveland to fall to 6-3 on the season. While at first glance, it’s easy to point the finger at kicker Stephen Haushcka for missing a game-tying field goal, the problem is much deeper, yet obvious.

For months, many of the Bills critics have questioned the Bills offense, with much push back from biased “Billievers” and Josh Allen apologists. If this game doesn’t change those opinions, nothing will. Poor clock management, conservative play-calling and key plays not extending drives were all a major part of this team’s misfortunes in Cleveland.
Daboll has been a figure who, if this Bills season goes south quick, could find himself as the scapegoat when it comes to appeasing the fan base at the end of the season. His play calling has seemingly limited this offenses potential, and does not look as explosive as it could. It has even led many to believe that Josh Allen isn’t the franchise quarterback that the team thought he was.
Fortunately for Buffalo, if there is anything positive to examine, the Bills are not down and out, and have the opportunity to build their cushion as the first Wild Card spot, although there are some teams beginning to catch up.
Billswire Podcast Hosts Matt and Jeremy discuss the Week 10 loss to the Cleveland Browns:

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