The Buffalo Bills went toe-to-toe with NFL’s best team this season, the Philadelphia Eagles. Even though they fought well they ultimately lost in overtime to a Jalen Hurts touchdown.
The Eagles won 37-34 in overtime.
Buffalo is now an even 6-6 heading into its Week 13 bye, and their record truly indicates their performances throughout the 2023 NFL season. And Bills fans are left with the week off to think whether their team is even likely to make the playoffs.
But for those still Bill-eving and interested in placing wagers, it could be profitable move to bet on Buffalo at this point. Odds are now much longer for the team to make the playoffs.
But first, a look at the analytics:
New York Times Playoff Simulator
After Sunday’s loss, the New York Times playoff simulator has drastically reduced the Bills’ chance of making the playoffs. Buffalo’s current odds of making the playoffs is at 14 percent.
Unlike Bills games earlier this season, the offense played fantastic football, perhaps due to changes in the staff supporting quarterback Josh Allen. And when playing against the Eagles, who have only lost one game this season, fantastic football needs to be played by everyone. The Bills defense, naturally, had their work cut out for them and tried their best to stop perhaps the strongest team in the league.
The New York Times playoff simulator works by using an Elo rating system combined with information from betting markets to estimate every NFL teams’ chance of winning. The Elo rating system calculates the relative skill of teams within the NFL. The simulator estimate odds by randomly simulating the remainder of the season thousands of times and counting how often all NFL teams would make the playoffs.
According to the simulations, the Eagles have a greater than 68 percent chance to be the No. 1 seed. That’s how good the team that the Bills faced. And, had the Bills won the game against the Eagles, they would have had a 43 percent chance of making the playoffs.
Instead, the Bills currently have a 14 percent chance. With a fractional chance that they, like the Eagles are predicted to do, of getting the top seed, with the reward of a first-round bye.
The first-round bye goes to the first-place seed in each conference. Currently, the Baltimore Ravens have the best record in the AFC at 9-3. The Bills are currently outside of the playoff spots and would not qualify for the postseason.
According to the simulator, the Bills have what is essentially a must-win game against the 2022 Super Bowl Champions Kansas City Chiefs following their bye week. Starting with a win against the Chiefs would see their odds of making the playoffs jump to 24 percent. A loss to the reigning Super Bowl champions would see the odds drop to 5 percent.
FanDuel
The supercomputer might say one thing, but football markets are feeling differently than the simulations. The betting market is much more optimistic of the Bills chance to not only make the playoffs, but win the division, and even the Super Bowl.
Despite the loss to the Eagles, the Bills currently have a +360 odds to make the 2023 NFL playoffs. This amounts to a 21.74 percent chance. The betting market also believes the Bills have a 10 percent odds (+900) of winning the AFC East vs. the NYT simulator which had the Bills at a 3% chance.
Now, Buffalo going toe to toe with a Super Bowl caliber team in the Eagles shows that they can hang with the best of the best. Could they run the AFC table and book their place in Super Bowl LVIII?
According to FanDuel, the Bills have a 5 percent chance (+1900) of winning the AFC Championship and a 3 percent chance (+3300) of winning this year’s Super Bowl.
Now, betting markets aren’t designed to truly highlight people’s thoughts on what a team is capable of, but designed to have people bet as much as possible. Always gamble responsibly if you choose to gamble.
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