Tag: Bill Barnwell

ESPN projects 49ers as a lock to return to postseason

A rocky offseason didn’t stop ESPN from making the #49ers a postseason lock.

Despite an offseason full of drama and an injury to a star player, the San Francisco 49ers are still in good shape to make a trip back to the postseason.

Left tackle Trent Williams ended his holdout just a couple of days after wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk ended his hold-in. Aiyuk was back in practice Tuesday, as was running back Christian McCaffrey who returned from a calf injury that cost him the entire preseason.

Things are falling into place for the 49ers just in time for the regular season, and it helped them land as a playoff lock in a projection from ESPN’s Bill Barnwell. He leaned on their offensive efficiency and overwhelming top-end talent as reasons they’d return to the postseason despite a tumultuous offseason coming off a Super Bowl loss:

While the debates about Brock Purdy’s impact on the offense rage on, all we can say for sure is teams haven’t yet found a way to stop the former seventh-round pick consistently. Since Purdy entered the starting lineup in Week 13 of the 2022 season, the 49ers are a league-best 18-5, lead the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per play on offense, and rank third in EPA per play on defense. They’ve been the best team in football over that stretch, even if it hasn’t yet yielded a championship. Barring a rash of injuries to Purdy and his fellow superstars atop the San Francisco roster, this team will be back in the playoffs for another run.

San Francisco is one of eight teams from last year’s playoff field that Barnwell picked to return. They joined the Rams, Packers, Lions and Cowboys from the NFC. In the AFC the Chiefs, Bills and Ravens were all considered locks to return to the postseason.

We’ll learn a lot about the 49ers’ chances early in the year. If they’re going to have any hiccups from their offseason they’ll show in the first few weeks. Under head coach Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco has been consistently very good through November and December which always puts them in a good position to make a postseason push. If they can avoid an early-season collapse, it’s easy to draw a path to a fifth playoff berth in six years for the 49ers.

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ESPN’s Bill Barnwell has a laughable trade offer for Saints CB Marshon Lattimore

ESPN’s Bill Barnwell put together a well-reasoned argument for why the Jaguars should trade for Marshon Lattimore. But the Saints shouldn’t accept this deal:

Speculation about Marshon Lattimore being traded is going to be a recurring theme for this New Orleans Saints offseason. While the Saints did restructure their contract with Lattimore in a unique way to make him easier to trade, they haven’t been shopping him around or given him permission to seek a trade. If the right deal presents itself, they’d be open to it, but that hasn’t happened yet.

And this suggestion from ESPN’s Bill Barnwell should get laughed off the phone. Barnwell came up with a list of trades and free agent signings he’d like to see happen around the NFL this summer, but his trade idea sending Marshon Lattimore to the Jacksonville Jaguars shouldn’t be taken seriously. It’s a horrible return of value for a repeat Pro Bowler in the peak of his athletic career.

We’ll let Barnwell explain himself: “In a division in which the Texans and Titans have made major wide receiver investments this offseason, adding a veteran option across from Tyson Campbell makes sense for the Jags, who have extra picks in Rounds 3 and 4 of the 2025 draft after trading down with the Vikings last month. Sending a fourth-rounder to the Saints would clear up a financial and positional logjam for New Orleans and land an immediate plug-and-play starter at a position of need for Jacksonville.”

It’s true that the Jaguars could be a good fit. They lack high-end candidates to start opposite Campbell, and several coaches Lattimore knows well are on staff in Jacksonville including defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen and defensive backs coach Kris Richard. But only getting back a fourth rounder for Lattimore would be wildly disappointing for New Orleans.

We’ve talked before about how the trade market for cornerbacks is depressed; players who are younger, healthier, and more productive than Lattimore are only being traded for mid-round picks. But that doesn’t mean the Saints should accept it and just settle for a bad pick because they feel like they have to trade Lattimore. If the best they can get for him is, as Barnwell suggests, a fourth-round choice in 2025 (which currently slots in at either No. 107 or 114 overall) the Saints should get over whatever tension sits between them and Lattimore and refuse to trade him. He’s more important to their success than the 114th pick in next year’s draft.

Maybe they end up settling for less. Mickey Loomis has gotten outplayed in a couple of trades recently by spending too much to get Trevor Penning in the 2022 draft while not getting enough back in moving C.J. Gardner-Johnson later that summer. Depending on which trade value charts you prefer, he may have overspent to move up for Kool-Aid McKinstry this year. But even if McKinstry is sitting behind Lattimore on the depth chart, they still shouldn’t trade him just for the sake of it.

Teams need four corners on game days (if not more). Right now, the Saints have them in Lattimore, McKinstry, Paulson Adebo, and Alontae Taylor. If this sort of trade offer is the best they’ll get for Lattimore over the summer, they’ll do better to keep him and figure out who their best corners are out of that group.

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Bill Barnwell’s hypothetical trade sees Jets deal with Raiders, gain second-round pick

Bill Barnwell’s hypothetical trade sees Jets deal with Raiders, gain second-round pick

Jets general manager Joe Douglas will tell folks the team is considering all options in the first round. Those options include trading back from No. 10 if the board falls a certain way. And in a recent mock draft that included all trades from ESPN’s Bill Barnwell, that’s the route the Jets decide to go.

Barnwell suggested a trade with the Las Vegas Raiders, who sit at No. 13, as there could still be a scenario in which Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy is still on the board when the Jets are on the clock at No. 10. The advantage there for the Jets is that the three teams right behind them on the board (No. 11 Vikings, No. 12 Broncos, No. 13 Raiders) all need long-term quarterback solutions. Of the three, only the Raiders have a second-round pick to send to the Jets. The Vikings do have No. 23 in the first round, but they likely would not send that pick just to move up one spot from 11 to 10.

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So in this case, the Jets drop down three spots and get a second-round pick (No. 44). The Jets also acquire second-year quarterback Aidan O’Connell in the deal. The Jets are going to move on from Zach Wilson at some point and O’Connell would get a chance to develop as the No. 3 quarterback behind Aaron Rodgers and Tyrod Taylor and eventually become the backup. O’Connell has some flashy moments as a rookie last season in what was a rough situation.

Here’s what Barnwell had to say about the potential deal:

It’s not out of the question that J.J. McCarthy is still on the board when the Jets pick here. Pre-draft quarterback chatter can turn out to be nothing more than idle speculation or near-misses. Remember that in 2021 the 49ers were reportedly interested in Mac Jones at No. 3 before he fell to the Patriots at No. 15. They were also considering Aaron Rodgers with the No. 1 pick in the 2005 draft, but when they chose Alex Smith, Rodgers fell all the way to the Packers at No. 24. Neither team ended up needing to move up the board to land its quarterback, although those two signal-callers obviously had very different effects on their respective franchises.

In this scenario, I have to believe the three teams below the Jets wouldn’t be willing to play a game of quarterback chicken. The Vikings, Broncos and Raiders all need a long-term solution at the position, and it wouldn’t cost all that much to move up with the Jets and land that passer. There’s a fun universe in which the Raiders get Davante Adams involved with this trade to reunite Rodgers and Adams, but nothing about Las Vegas’ offseason has suggested the franchise believes it is in the middle of a rebuild.

At the cost of a second-round pick, would the Raiders be willing to jump ahead of the Vikings and Broncos to land McCarthy? Neither team has a second-rounder in this draft to match Vegas’ offer. The Vikings have another first-rounder (No. 23), but would they really send it to move up one spot? (The Jets don’t have a second-rounder to send back, either.)

In this deal, New York GM Joe Douglas would get back a top-50 pick after sending a second-rounder to the Packers in the Rodgers trade last year. The Jets would also get a potential backup for Rodgers in O’Connell, who exceeded expectations in a hopeless situation a year ago. And frankly, while moving down three spots in Round 1, they still might be able to draft the same player they wanted at No. 10.

Even with trading back to No. 13, the Jets should still have the opportunity to select either Washington offensive lineman Troy Fautanu or Oregon State offensive tackle Taliese Fuaga, securing extra depth and a future starter up front.

2024 NFL draft: Bill Barnwell outlines a potential Giants trade back

ESPN’s Bill Barnwell outlines what a trade back in the 2024 NFL draft could potentially look like for the New York Giants.

Some NFL draft experts are forecasting a trade-up from the No. 6 spot by the New York Giants come next Thursday night’s first round in Detroit.

As many have stated (including us at Giants Wire), that would not be the best course of action for Big Blue general manager Joe Schoen, who has just six selections in this draft and plenty of holes on his roster to fill and upgrade.

The smart move would be to trade back and get multiple picks in this year’s draft and a few in next year’s, which is what ESPN’s Bill Barnwell is suggesting in his latest all-trade mock draft.

In Barnwell’s scenario, Schoen sends the No. 6 pick up to his old pals in Buffalo in exchange for a first-rounder (No. 28), a second (No.60), a fourth (No. 128), and a 2025 first-round pick (via Texans) and a 2026 third-round pick.

That’s a five-for-one deal that would give Schoen a chance to reel in more top talent both this year and next. The Giants would have six picks in the first four rounds (Nos. 28, 47, 60, 70, 107, and 128) of this year’s draft and eight overall. More opportunities for Schoen to improve the team from front to back.

Brnwell suggests a blockbuster deal for the right to draft a stud wide receiver (such as the one made by the Atlanta Falcons for Julio Jones back in 2011) is not beyond the pale for the Bills, who covet the likes of Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze and Marvin Harrison Jr. — one of whom should be available at No. 6

There’s certainly a need for them at wide receiver after losing Gabe Davis in free agency and trading Stefon Diggs for a second-round pick. And unlike the Giants, who are in somewhat of a rebuilding period given Daniel Jones’ uncertain future and their disappointing 2023 campaign, Bills GM Brandon Beane probably wants someone who can help Josh Allen win right now. Calling up former assistant Joe Schoen to try to make a dramatic move into the top 10 for one of the top wideouts makes sense.

Barnwell does not make picks in this exercise, just trade proposals, so we don’t know what the Giants did with their picks in this mock draft.

The deal, which many feel the Bills would be crazy to make due to the massive draft capital they’d be surrendering, is actually a smart one for both sides.

The Giants would still be able to get some top offensive weapons — at wide receiver, tight end, and running back — and a cornerback and defensive lineman to fortify the defense.

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ESPN suggests Saints package Trevor Penning in a trade for his replacement

ESPN has a unique trade proposal for the Saints, suggesting they package Trevor Penning in a trade for his replacement:

There’s a real possibility the New Orleans Saints could call it quits on the Trevor Penning experiment. If they can find a better left tackle in the 2024 NFL draft, it’s worth moving him to guard or right tackle to play the better player — and it just might be worth moving him to a new team altogether if it means they can go get that better left tackle.

That’s the scenario offered by ESPN’s Bill Barnwell, who drew up trades for every team picking in the first round of this year’s draft. If there’s a possibility the Saints could package Penning in a deal to move up and get this year’s top tackle (whoever they prefer; Notre Dame stud Joe Alt is the consensus pick to be first off the board), Barnwell says they should do it.

Here’s why Barnwell argues the Saints should trade Penning to the Los Angeles Chargers, along with their second-round pick at No. 45, in a big move up from No. 14 to No. 5:

If there’s no market in the top six to move up for a quarterback, the Saints might be able to jump ahead of the line to grab their favorite tackle in this class. The Chargers don’t have to trade down and could comfortably consider a wide receiver or tackle themselves at No. 5, but they’re also a team that could stand to add extra draft capital. (So are the Saints, of course, but why would GM Mickey Loomis start trading down in Round 1 now?)

Moving up would cost the Saints their second-round pick and the guy they thought was going to be their left tackle of the future in Penning, who looks and feels like he needs a change of scenery after two disastrous seasons. Penning missed most of 2022 with an injury, and after starting 2023 on the left side, he was benched in Week 6 and barely played the rest of the way. The Chargers already have Rashawn Slater locking down the left side of the line, but Penning could compete with Trey Pipkins at right tackle or serve as the swing tackle. This deal would value him as being worth the 88th pick in the draft by the Jimmy Johnson chart.

That would exciting, sure. Alt has everything you look for in a franchise left tackle. He’s an exceptional athlete with plenty of starting experience at a blueblood college program. He’s a much better prospect now than Penning was coming out of college a couple of years ago. Alt could immediately slot into the left tackle spot and allow the Saints to focus on plugging holes at right tackle and left guard, among other positions.

But there’s the problem: they’ve got almost nothing left to work with after this trade. The Saints wouldn’t pick again until No. 150 in the fifth round after trading their picks in the first and second rounds to move up. This team is not one player away. They need to be careful spenders on draft day and target safe picks who can help them right away. Beyond the offensive line, there are big vulnerabilities along the defensive line, at wide receiver, tight end, safety, and running back. There are more unsettled position groups than sure things.

It’s funny — the Saints have finally given their critics (like Barnwell) the offseason that’s been asked of them. They’ve spent conservatively in free agency without moving more money around than necessary in their usual restructures. They’re poised to clear big salary cap hits for Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara, if they choose, over the next year or two. The situation is significantly less grim than it once was. But Barnwell still expects them to throw caution to the wind, reverse course, and steer right for the rocks. We’ll see if that’s the plan come draft day.

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Bill Barnwell lists Broncos as the best fit for WR Michael Thomas

ESPN’s Bill Barnwell lists the Broncos as the best fit for free agent WR Michael Thomas. Would a reunion with Sean Payton pay dividends?

Bill Barnwell recently published a list on ESPN of the best fits for some of the top NFL free agents still available. He has the Denver Broncos listed as the best fit for former New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas.

New Orleans recently cut Thomas, who has played in just 20 games in the last four seasons due to various injuries. Before that, he played in 63 out of 64 possible games in his first four seasons under then-Saints coach Sean Payton.

Could the receiver now reunite with Payton in Denver?

“Denver’s roster is in flux as it rebuilds post-Russell Wilson, but after trading Jerry Jeudy, it looks like it will run with Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims as its top two wideouts,” Barnwell wrote on ESPN.com. “Tim Patrick took a pay cut to return, but he has missed each of the last two seasons with injuries. Thomas could reunite with former coach Sean Payton and compete with Patrick for that third wideout role.”

Thomas’s first four seasons had him on track for a sure-fire Hall of Fame career. However, as stated previously, injuries have depleted him in the last four seasons. A chance to reunite with Payton could be the jump start his career needs.

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ESPN says Michael Thomas should reunite with ex-Saints coach Sean Payton

ESPN’s Bill Barnwell sees a “perfect fit” for Michael Thomas on the Broncos. Can he and Sean Payton get back on the same page?

It would be surprising to see Michael Thomas and Sean Payton wearing the same team’s colors again, but you never know. ESPN’s Bill Barnwell made the case for the former New Orleans Saints wide receiver to work with the ex-Saints head coach, saying that the Denver Broncos could be a perfect fit for Thomas as he searches for a new team.

“Denver’s roster is in flux as it rebuilds post-Russell Wilson,” Barnwell wrote, “but after trading Jerry Jeudy, it looks like it will run with Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims as its top two wideouts. Tim Patrick took a pay cut to return, but he has missed each of the last two seasons with injuries. Thomas could reunite with former coach Sean Payton and compete with Patrick for that third wideout role.”

From a pure personnel perspective, it makes sense. The Broncos need a receiver. Thomas is a receiver. That’s a match, right?

Not so fast. Thomas’ relationship with Payton fractured over the years, with Thomas blaming Payton for the ankle injury that started his long-lasting medical issues; Thomas was asked to go out and block late in a blowout win, and to return quickly in order to help Drew Brees in the last year of his career. Thomas was set to leave the Saints after Payton stepped down from his post until Dennis Allen flew out to California to recruit him back to the team.

Payton also benched Thomas and fined him for fighting with a teammate in practice at one point, and there had been other pressures building behind the scenes. So it would be surprising to see the two of them together again. Still, if Thomas isn’t seeing many offers in free agency, this isn’t a possibility we should rule out.

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Bill Barnwell names Byron Murphy Jr. as candidate to break out in 2023

When the Vikings signed Byron Murphy Jr., their hope was he would take a huge step forward, and ESPN’s Bill Barnwell agrees

Minnesota Vikings cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. has been named a potential breakout player by ESPN’s Bill Barnwell.

Murphy was a second-round pick of the Arizona Cardinals in 2019 and couldn’t quite live up to the potential of his pedigree. He was often hurt, including missing eight games in 2022 because of a back injury.

Barnwell grouped Murphy in the group he called post-hype candidates. Here is how Barnwell described this tier:

These are the players who, for one reason or another, have fallen off the breakout radar and aren’t getting the appropriate level of attention heading into the season. Last year, the classic example of a post-hype breakout would have been Raiders running back Josh Jacobs, who went from playing in the Hall of Fame game and having his fifth-year option declined to leading the league in rushing yards. These players don’t neatly fit into any of the categories above, but they can regain that attention in 2023.

Murphy has played very well thus far during training camp, including locking down Justin Jefferson during drills. This is what Barnwell had to say about Murphy’s potential breakout:

For much of his tenure in Arizona, Murphy was the best cornerback on a team that didn’t have good players at the position. He emerged as a valuable slot cornerback, but he struggled when pushed into a broader role in 2022. His passer rating allowed jumped from 87.6 to 101.1, while the Cardinals were 15 points of QBR better without Murphy on the field. After missing just two games in his first three seasons, he was out for the second half of 2022 with a back injury.

The Vikings needed help everywhere at cornerback, but another factor appealed to them: Murphy’s age. At 25, he was one of the youngest free agents on the open market, and the hope will be that a more modern, dynamic defense under Brian Flores gets the most out of Murphy’s skill set. Flores has typically asked his corners to play man more often than most other coordinators; Murphy will get a chance to prove whether he’s up to the task. On a two-year deal, he could land a much larger contract in free agency in 2025.

The defense that Brian Flores runs will hopefully maximize Murphy’s potential and turn him into the Vikings’ CB1 in 2023 and beyond.

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Martin Emerson Jr. tagged as breakout candidate by ESPN’s Bill Barnwell

Barnwell believes the second year player could take another step forward

There were plenty that were surprised last year when Andrew Berry and the Cleveland Browns selected cornerback Martin Emerson Jr. as their top pick in 2022. But that surprise didn’t last long as Emerson Jr. was thrust into the starting lineup early due in part to injuries and he never looked overwhelmed.

Now ESPN’s Bill Barnwell believes Emerson Jr. can take another step forward in 2023.

“Most notably [Emerson] limited Mike Evans to 31 yards on nine targets in a November victory over the Buccaneers. He finished the season with a 77.6 passer rating allowed in coverage.”

Emerson Jr. is such a physical player that he thrives against bigger-bodied wide receivers like Mike Evans. He has had a good showing in training camp so far as well and with the addition of Jim Schwartz, Emerson Jr. is poised to break out in 2023.

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ESPN’s Bill Barnwell says Giants had one of worst offseasons in NFL

Bill Barnwell of ESPN says the New York Giants “bought into their own hype” and had one of the worst offseasons in the NFL.

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By almost every conceivable measure, the New York Giants had a successful offseason. They added quality talent at positions of need during free agency, had a strong draft haul, and handled the vast majority of their in-house work.

The Giants got stronger in terms of personnel, coaching, scouting and within their front office. They’re a better team — a better organization — than they were just four months ago.

That statement is one almost universally agreed upon. Their free agent grades were among the league’s best, their draft grades were among the league’s best and their offseason grades were among the league’s best.

Except in the eyes of one man.

ESPN’s Bill Barnwell recently ranked the offseason of all 32 NFL teams and concluded that the Giants and general manager Joe Schoen were among the league’s very worst.

Barnwell ranked the Giants No. 29 out of 32, claiming the “organization appears to have bought into its own hype.”

An unexpected trip to the postseason and a road victory once they got there was a pleasant surprise for the Giants, who had been treating 2023 as a year to get their salary cap right and begin a rebuild. Their underlying performance wasn’t quite as impressive; they were outscored on the season and finished 21st in DVOA. They went 8-4-1 in games decided by eight or fewer points and were lucky to draw an even worse playoff opponent in the Vikings, whose DVOA ranked them as the sixth-worst team in the league.

In response, the Giants appear to be running it back. They franchise-tagged Saquon Barkley and committed to Jones, signing the same player who wasn’t worth a fifth-year option 12 months earlier to a four-year, $160 million deal with $81 million guaranteed over the first two seasons. They brought back Slayton and Shepard, who seemed to be on the way out, and while those weren’t major deals, the move for Jones certainly was just that.

The “Daniel Jones stinks” stuff is old, tired and boring so we’ll spare you that take, which has been beaten like a dead horse for years. But Barnwell didn’t stop there.

In addition to the “merr, DJ bad” stance, Barnwell also slammed the Giants for signing linebacker Bobby Okereke to a big-money deal. Nevermind that lacking a talented off-ball linebacker has been one of the team’s biggest Achilles heels for more than a decade.

A four-year, $40 million deal for off-ball linebacker Bobby Okereke was too aggressive at a position where the majority of useful players settled for much smaller commitments. Schoen used the team’s first-round pick on much-needed cornerback Deonte Banks, but this secondary is going to struggle against an NFC East full of imposing receivers.

The Giants certainly aren’t in perfect shape and no one should have expected them to be. They’re entering Year 2 of the Schoen-Brian Daboll era and there’s still a long way to go — both of them will admit that. But to claim the Giants had one of the worst offseasons in the league when they very clearly improved in every area…

Sorry. Those of us at Giants Wire simply do not agree with that.

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