Tag: Big Ten Basketball

Wisconsin bubble watch: the huge Big Ten bubble of 2020

A look at the bubble

The Wisconsin Badgers were steadily moving in the right direction before Wednesday night’s game against the Illinois Fighting Illini. Four straight wins, two of them on the road, one against a likely NCAA Tournament team (Ohio State), all solidified Wisconsin’s resume. However, the Badgers needed to continue to stack wins together. More precisely, they needed to continue to win against NCAA Tournament teams. Milwaukee (Dec. 21) and Rider (Dec. 31) won’t move the needle in terms of bubble placement.

After losing 71-70 to Illinois at home, the Badgers are very much a bubble team, if there was doubt about their status before tip-off. The Badgers have some decent wins which should look good in two months, but they don’t have any conversation-ending, debate-settling wins in a fragile college basketball ecosystem which is still very hard to define.

As you consider the bubble landscape, just how worried should you be? With two months until Selection Sunday, it is too early to make very specific and targeted comparisons between Team A here and Team B over there. We can’t really say that certain teams are battling for at-large bids. That discussion comes into focus in the middle of February. What CAN be said, however, about the bubble right now is that it is extremely large in the Big Ten. Consider what Chris Dobbertean of SB Nation’s Blogging the Bracket had to say about Illinois’ win over Wisconsin:

Chris is not predicting that 12 Big Ten teams will get into the field of 68. He is, however, noting that a lot of Big Ten teams (everyone but Northwestern and Nebraska) has a real chance to get in. There are a lot of resumes with a “kinda sorta maybe” quality to them: obviously worthy of being considered, but just as clearly not good enough to feel secure about the NCAA Tournament. The coming weeks will likely bump a few Big Ten teams into the NIT, but with so many teams winning at home and losing on the road, the Big Ten is very bunched in the middle, with the two NU schools at the bottom and Michigan State at the top. If teams continue to trade wins and losses, the Big Ten bubble will remain very large.

That is one point to keep in mind.

Here is the other one: What happens in one conference has to be measured against other conferences when assessing bubble odds and prospects. The ACC is not very good this season. North Carolina isn’t even a bubble team… unless you are talking about the NIT. UNC might have to play in the CBI this season. Syracuse is in a similar spot.

If you look at the ACC right now, only four teams — Duke, Florida State, Louisville, and Virginia — are in good shape for an NCAA bid. Three other teams — Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, and Pittsburgh — are in bubble territory. This is no joke: The ACC might get only five bids this season. If the ACC gets only five, and the SEC (which has struggled) gets only four bids, and the Pac-12 gets only three, other conferences will have many bids to grab. Enter the Big Ten.

Wisconsin is competing with other Big Ten teams for an at-large bid, but it is also competing with Pittsburgh and USC and bubble teams in other conferences. The Big Ten bubble is an inconvenience — more bubble competition inside the league — but it is also a sign that the teams Wisconsin will play in the coming weeks are decent teams. This means the more Wisconsin can win in this conference (against teams other than Nebraska and Northwestern), the more its resume should improve.

This is what one has to keep in mind about the huge Big Ten bubble of 2020.

Illinois is part of two cycles in Big Ten basketball

More on Illinois basketball within the context of the Big Ten

I hasten to offer a clarifying statement at the start of this piece, so that no one gets the wrong idea: There are more than two cycles at work in present-day Big Ten basketball. I am not limiting the amount of cycles to only two. More can be found and remarked on.

Today — here and now — I am focusing on two cycles, and Illinois basketball is part of them. This line of thought offers perspective on the Fighting Illini before Wednesday’s game against the Wisconsin Badgers. It also sheds light on what has been happening in Big Ten basketball in recent years.

Let’s start with the more immediate cycle at work in the Big Ten: the simple reality that downtrodden teams are having a happy moment this season. Illinois was 12-21 last season, but the Illini have begun to make substantial improvements and take concrete forward steps as a program this year. A team which was 4-11 after 15 games at this point in January of 2019 is 10-5 in January of 2020. Illinois has lost to Michigan State, Maryland and Arizona on the road, all expected losses. The Illini would like to have back at least one of two losses — Miami at home, Missouri in St. Louis — but if Illinois is basically one game short of an ideal situation, the program is fundamentally on schedule this season.

Illinois — should it continue its upward trajectory — is poised to make the NCAA Tournament and join both Rutgers and Penn State in the Big Dance. This is one of the central stories of the Big Ten in early 2020: Several teams in the conference are picking themselves off the canvas and creating fresh excitement among their fan bases. It is the year of revival in the conference. If we go back a few years, we can see that other programs — most notably Northwestern — have enjoyed breakthrough seasons after struggling. Even Nebraska made an NCAA Tournament not THAT long ago (in 2014). If a Big Ten basketball program seems to have no hope, wait a few years. Illinois is part of that parade. The Illini have a lot of work to do to make the NCAAs, but they are on the right track. After the first two seasons of Brad Underwood’s tenure in Champaign, that was hardly a sure thing.

Here is the larger cycle Illinois is part of, however: The Illini might be on their way to the NCAA Tournament this season. Let’s say that does indeed happen. Would there be any assurance the Illini could make the music last? This is the uncertainty which looms over most Big Ten programs. I would say that five conference programs — Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Ohio State — can currently and reasonably expect to be very good nearly every year with few interruptions. The other nine cannot, or at least, have not yet proven they can.

Wisconsin basketball fans are especially happy — rightly so, I might add — that Minnesota basketball simply hasn’t been able to gain much traction this century. The Golden Gophers have made the NCAA Tournament in back-to-back seasons only once this century, in 2009 and 2010. Minnesota just doesn’t build or gather momentum as a program… and that dynamic applies to the other eight schools in the conference: Iowa, Northwestern, Nebraska, Indiana, Maryland, Rutgers, Penn State, and — of course — Illinois. Name the last time any of those programs hit or came close to hitting their ceiling of potential in back-to-back seasons. Maybe Maryland in recent years, but I would say that Maryland has not maximized its potential in any individual season since joining the Big Ten. The Terrapins have gotten solid NCAA Tournament seeds in the 4 to 6 range, but those teams had 2-seed potential and didn’t come especially close to realizing it.

Cycle No. 1: You can pick yourself up in the Big Ten even if the previous few seasons have been bad.

Cycle No. 2: If you have a good season in the Big Ten — and you’re not a Michigan school, Wisconsin, Purdue, or Ohio State — that good season is typically surrounded by subpar seasons.

These are the two Big Ten basketball cycles Illinois is currently a part of. We will see if the Illini or any of other eight members of the conference’s underclass can break free of these chains in the 2020s.

Big Ten basketball update, part two: everything’s up in the air

More on Big Ten basketball

You might look at the title of this piece and say, “FALSE ADVERTISING! Michigan State is the clear-cut best team in the 2020 Big Ten basketball world, so not EVERYTHING is up in the air in this conference.”

Maybe… but do we know for sure?

I don’t even think we can say with total certainty that Michigan State is going to completely run away with the Big Ten. Is it possible? Of course it is… but if you look at Michigan State’s schedule, I don’t think that assertion holds up.

Michigan State is 4-0 in the Big Ten, yes. However, the Spartans have played three home games, and only one of those three has been against an especially good team (Michigan). The win against Illinois might look good at the end of the season, but I don’t think Illinois is a top-four Big Ten team (though that, too, is up in the air and a genuine point of uncertainty, which reinforces the central thesis of this article). Michigan State’s only Big Ten road game to date: Northwestern, easily one of the two worst teams in the conference alongside Nebraska… and if you had to put one NU against the other, Northwestern probably loses to Nebraska. The Huskers thumped Purdue earlier in the Big Ten season.

Genuinely, everything in the Big Ten is a big unknown right now. Do we all have our thoughts or leanings on what we think will happen? Sure. I think Wisconsin will continue to move in the right direction. I think Illinois will be an NCAA Tournament team. I think Maryland is going to be a six seed in the NCAA Tournament and not get out of the first weekend, as usual. Yet, while many of us THINK any of several things will happen, the idea that one can KNOW how this Big Ten season will unfold is dubious.

This college basketball season is a large-scale version of the Big Ten. If anyone tells you they know what will happen (other than stating that this season will be chaotic — duh!), they’re being very foolish.

Are Penn State and Rutgers really going to hold up? Maybe, but this is relatively new territory for those two teams. Will Ohio State fail to regain its winning edge? Will the real Purdue please stand up? How about the real Michigan?

Imagine Penn State getting a No. 4 seed at the Big Ten Tournament while Indiana has to play on day one (Wednesday) as an 11 seed. That sounds patently ridiculous in the context of college basketball history… but it seems entirely possible as a measurement of what those teams have brought to the table thus far.

Will that happen? Maybe… but who the heck knows? Uncertainty is the word of the day — and the week, and very possibly the whole season — in 2020 Big Ten basketball.

Big Ten basketball update: home is still sweet

Big Ten basketball check-in

The Wisconsin Badgers’ win against the Ohio State Buckeyes was huge on its own terms. Wisconsin got a quality win which will significantly improve the Badgers’ nitty-gritty report for the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Committee. Wisconsin needed that game to bolster its profile. Yet, another important aspect of that win was that it came on the road. After the past weekend of Big Ten games — and as the calendar turns to the new year, which tells us the college basketball season is in its middle third — it remains true that road wins are hard to find in the Big Ten.

We are just getting started in conference play — three games into the conference season — but teams have played 13 to 15 regular-season games including non-conference play. That’s a decent amount of basketball. Through January 5, guess how many Big Ten teams have fewer than two losses on their home floor.

Remember, this is a league in which Nebraska and Northwestern exist. Those two schools have already racked up multiple bad home-court losses. Of the other 12 schools in the conference, surely one or two have lost at least two games at home this season, in early January. Right? RIGHT?

Wrong.

Twelve Big Ten teams — everyone other than the two NU schools — have no more than one home-court loss. Four schools — Wisconsin, Maryland, Rutgers, and Penn State — are unbeaten at home. Keep in mind that the Big Ten-ACC Challenge occurred. Indiana beat the same Florida State team which just went into Louisville and handled the Cardinals. Purdue, which has noticeably struggled this season, didn’t struggle at all at home versus Virginia.

Wisconsin doesn’t have a leg up on Michigan State in the 2020 Big Ten basketball race, since the Spartans are 4-0 in the league after their win over Michigan on Sunday, but the Badgers ARE in a good spot for second place given their road win over Ohio State, a precious gem which — if augmented by other road wins — will give Wisconsin a great chance to grab what it has claimed so often in the past: a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament and the assurance that its first game of that March weekend will come on Friday, and not earlier.

Home sweet home. That has been the theme in the Big Ten this season. We will see how much the next two months change that reality.

Ohio State basketball trails Wisconsin headed to the break

Ohio State trails Wisconsin at the half despite a quick start. Sloppy play and bad shooting allowed the Badgers back in it.

The Wisconsin Badgers have stormed back to take a 29-25 halftime lead into the locker room over Ohio State at Value City Arena.

Nate Reuvers leads the Badgers with 10 points at the break, while Kaleb Wesson ties the Wisconsin forward with 10 of his own for Ohio State.

The Buckeyes have looked sluggish ever since their impressive win over No. 17 Kentucky at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, dropping the Cleveland Classic on Sunday to West Virginia.

With 20 minutes left in this scrappy Big Ten brawl, it’s time for Chris Holtmann’s bunch to regroup and pull out a much-needed home victory in conference play. The schedule doesn’t get much easier throughout the month with a trip to Maryland on Tuesday, but this is a game the Buckeyes must have.

Make sure to follow along with us here at Buckeyes Wire in the second half and on Twitter for more updates. Go Bucks!

Great Wisconsin sports feats: 14 straight top-4 seeds in B1G Tourney

The Wisconsin Badgers were a top-four seed in 14 straight Big Ten basketball tournaments from 2002 through 2015

Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany went to the University of North Carolina. He could tell you that the idea of North Carolina or Duke being a top-four seed in 14 straight ACC Tournaments is not ludicrous. That’s DUKE. That’s CAROLINA. Of course they would be in the top four. Duke or Carolina finishing third or fourth in the ACC is a down year. Not being a top-four seed in the ACC Tournament is cause for alarm.

However, we can appreciate that Duke and North Carolina are college basketball royalty. Kentucky is king in the SEC. UCLA and Arizona are big brand names in the Pac-12. Kansas is the colossus of the Big 12. Villanova is the giant in the Big East. If you were to tell me that any of those programs gained a top-four seed in 14 consecutive conference tournaments, I would not express surprise or shock. I would say that is expected of those schools in their respective conference tournaments.

Yet, of those schools mentioned above, only Kansas has — in this century — made at least 14 straight conference tournament appearances with a top-four seed. Duke and North Carolina both had multiple years earlier this century in which they fell out of the top four in the ACC. Kentucky slipped in 2009 under Billy Gillispie, falling to seventh in the SEC. The Wildcats were the fourth seed in the SEC East, back at a time when the two divisions had their own separate seeds. Kentucky would have been the No. 7 or 8 seed under current SEC Tournament seeding rules.

UCLA and Arizona have both stumbled at times in the Pac-12 (formerly Pac-10) this century. Villanova wasn’t a top-four seed with great regularity until Jay Wright turned the corner midway through the 2010s. Kansas is the only member of this blue-blood group which actually did remain in the top seeding tier of its conference tournament for at least 14 straight seasons.

Guess who can make the same claim of top-four seeding consistency as Kansas? Yup, Wisconsin.

From 2002 through 2015, Bo Ryan had the Badgers in the top four at the Big Ten Tournament. Wisconsin never did play a Wednesday or Thursday game. It always got the full amount of byes and played on Friday. Carolina, Duke, Kentucky, UCLA, Arizona, and Villanova could not match the Wisconsin basketball program in any 14-year period this century. Imagine writing that sentence anytime before 2005 and thinking that was remotely possible. This run of consecutive top-four seeds at the Big Ten Tournament will long remain one of the Badgers’ greatest athletic feats in 21st-century collegiate athletics.

Where is Ohio State basketball in Andy Katz’s updated college basketball power rankings?

Ohio State receives high ranking in Andy Katz’s latest college basketball power rankings.

If the Ohio State basketball team isn’t the most pleasant surprise of the 2019-2020 season so far, I don’t know what program is. The Buckeyes have already put together a very impressive resume that includes wins over four of the last eight national champions — including Villanova, North Carolina, and Kentucky.

In fact, you literally can’t find a better body of work anywhere in the country, and when it comes time to select teams to be a high seed in the NCAA Tournament in March, these wins will likely hold up against anyone’s even throughout the rest of the season.

March Madness’ and the Big Ten Network’s Andy Katz has taken notice as have other analysts across the country. He has moved Ohio State up to No. 2 in his latest Power 36 college basketball rankings behind only Gonzaga.

Auburn, Oregon and Duke round out the top five, with the rest below.

As good as Ohio State has been, we must all remember that there’s still a long way to go in the season, and the Big Ten is a deep, tough, and a hard conference to navigate. There will be other losses on the schedule, but right now OSU has sent a message to the entire college basketball universe that it’s a team to reckon with this year.

In January, Wisconsin will encounter a very deep Big Ten

The Big Ten is extremely deep right now

The Wisconsin Badgers have just two non-conference games left on their schedule. In a week and a half, they begin the extended portion of their Big Ten schedule, two full months of conference clashes. While Wisconsin definitely figures to absorb its share of hits in the 2020 Big Ten, the good news attached to the Big Ten’s depth is that it means nearly any win in this league is going to be a quality win. Wisconsin, if it is good enough to go .500 in the Big Ten this season, will likely collect several high-value wins which will look very good in March.

Just look at how the analytics are valuing the Big Ten just before Christmas:

Saturday magnified the depth on display in Big Ten basketball. Minnesota followed its knockout of Ohio State with a 20-point win over Oklahoma State. Iowa went to Chicago and dispatched Cincinnati, adding to its resume. Indiana dug out a close win over Notre Dame. No, not all Big Ten teams answered the bell (hello, Nebraska), but it is clear that a lot of teams in the conference are capable of scoring high-end wins on their best nights.

Yes, part of this reality is due to the top tier of college basketball being comparatively weak this season. There is no dominant team in the sport, and if Gonzaga goes to No. 1, the fact that the Zags play in the West Coast Conference might mean they will retain the top ranking for several weeks. As we saw in last year’s NCAA Tournament, though, being a top seed didn’t mean Gonzaga was ready to compete for a national championship. Texas Tech clearly outplayed GU in the Elite Eight.

Nevertheless, even though there is no dominant team in college basketball, there are a lot of good teams capable of being great for a night or two. The Big Ten sits squarely in the middle of this dynamic, which means that Wisconsin should be able to improve its NCAA portfolio most of the times it takes the court in conference play. No, Nebraska and Northwestern won’t enhance UW’s profile, but nearly everyone else will. It might not feel great to have a 9-11 conference record, but that could be enough to make the Big Dance if the nine wins are strong enough.

That is something to keep in mind for Wisconsin in these final days of 2019.

10 for 20: Michigan State basketball

Michigan State basketball in the 2020s

The end of our series on the 13 non-Wisconsin Big Ten basketball programs at the start of the 2020s features the Michigan State Spartans. If one is to ask, “What is the biggest question facing the Spartans in the 2020s?”, it’s not about the success. That is assumed. It’s not about the consistency. That box has been checked. It’s not about the ability to play well in March. Michigan State has proved it can, in contrast to Purdue and Maryland, among others in the conference.

The main question is about the man responsible for Michigan State being so terrifically successful: “Will Tom Izzo coach through the entirety of the coming decade?” That’s the whole ballgame at Michigan State, is it not?

Yes, Tom Izzo was a Jud Heathcote assistant who was promoted from within two decades ago. Michigan State, as it turns out, didn’t need a national search or a splash hire to maintain and then improve upon Jud’s prosperous tenure in East Lansing. Izzo was not only sufficient, he was transcendent. He took what was a very good program and made it a monster.

The most amazing fact about Michigan State basketball under Tom Izzo is that only ONE senior class — 2014 — has failed to make a Final Four under his coaching. With Final Fours in 1999, 2000, 2001, 2005, 2009, 2010, 2015, and 2019, you can see that the only gap of more than four years was 2010 to 2015. The 2014 class made the Elite Eight. That’s ridiculous.

The right question for the 2020s is not if Izzo can sustain. That’s what he does. The right question for the coming decade is not if Izzo can stay relevant or adaptable. That’s what he is. The only question is if Izzo will tire of the chase, of the continued pursuit of greatness and a second national championship. Tom Izzo’s hunger is a central storyline in the 2020s Big Ten. Only if Izzo steps down before 2030 will his successor become a huge question. We’ll see if we even get to that point before the decade ends.

10 for 20: Ohio State basketball

Ohio State basketball in the 2020s

When looking at the collection of Big Ten basketball coaches, Archie Miller has received a lot of hype but has done nothing to justify it. Fred Hoiberg has proved that he can consistently win at a Power Five program, so he isn’t really a hyped coach so much as a proven coach. Mark Turgeon is trying to break through and deliver a Gary Williams-type masterpiece at Maryland, but he hasn’t gotten there yet. Brad Underwood is trying to change the equation at Illinois. Juwan Howard has returned to Michigan to coach at the school he once played for. If we aren’t talking about the legendary Tom Izzo — whose place in college basketball history is secure — one sees a lot of Big Ten coaches with considerable potential, but none of them are rock stars.

If one non-Izzo coach in the Big Ten has a good chance to become The Next Great Coach in the 2020s, many would say it is Chris Holtmann at Ohio State. This forms the question facing the Buckeyes as the new decade of Big Ten basketball begins: How great will Chris Holtmann become?

Butler was led to the heights of college basketball by Brad Stevens, and we know how good a coach he was in the collegiate game. Brandon Miller replaced Stevens at Butler and allowed the program to slip, albeit for only one season. Miller abruptly decided to step down one month before the start of the 2014-2015 season for health reasons. Butler didn’t have time to conduct a nationwide coaching search. Holtmann took over a program with potential, but many people in college basketball doubted what he could do because he wasn’t really “chosen” for the Butler job. Circumstances thrust the job into his hands.

He could not have done any better than he actually did. He raised the program to a Sweet 16 standard and gained a higher seed (No. 4 in 2017) than Stevens ever attained at the school. Holtmann’s work at Butler, at a time when everyone knew about Butler and took its best shot at the Bulldogs, marked him as a coach to watch. His work at Ohio State has been very solid. He hasn’t had a season slip away from him in his first years on the job. He might have gotten a grace period from commentators and even some fans, but he didn’t need one. After Thad Matta ran out of gas in Columbus, missing the NCAA Tournament two straight seasons, Holtmann came in and made the Big Dance in each of his first two seasons on the job. He is almost certain to increase that streak to three straight NCAA berths in the coming months. The program has been improved and solidified under his leadership. Now the only question seems to be how high the Buckeyes can climb.

Thad Matta established a high standard at Ohio State, but as noted above, his tenure with the Buckeyes seemed to hit a wall. Matta reached two Final Fours and produced several highly-seeded teams. Holtmann seems capable of replicating those results. Will he do so? That’s a great question. Will he stick around long enough to create something dynastic in Columbus? That question doesn’t seem absurd — it speaks to Holtmann’s potential. The next decade will tell us if Holtmann can hit that high ceiling.