Tag: big 12 football news

How Texas can avoid blindsiding loss it suffered in Week 4 last season

Last season, Texas lost to a lesser team to open conference play. It looks to avoid that fate this season.

The Texas Longhorns have suffered unexpected losses far too often in recent seasons. Last year was no exception. In 2022, Texas lost four games. Two came against teams it should have beaten with ease.

The Longhorns opened Big 12 play with an overtime loss to Texas Tech last season. The Red Raiders entered the game with a 2-1 record following a 27-14 loss to NC State. To put the Longhorns’ Week 4 loss in perspective, Texas Tech fans stormed the field earlier in the season after a three-point overtime win over the Houston Cougars.

This season, Texas opens conference play with a similar opponent. The Baylor Bears have potential to pull an upset any given week, but have struggled in early action in 2023. Even so, this week’s matchup is the type of game that could make an entire season for Baylor. To suggest that they cannot win the game after the Longhorns’ last three weeks might be too optimistic.

Texas can, and should, win the game. That said, the Longhorns have played with fire too often this season. Should they continue to play with fire, they can expect to get burned.

How does Texas avoid a blindsiding loss? The team needs to bring a level of urgency we haven’t seen outside of the Alabama game. It needs to avoid topping the FBS leaderboard in drop percentage in Week 4. It needs its quarterback to bring a higher level of focus as well.

Texas is not far from being a trustworthy team again. Winning its next game would get it closer to earning that trust.

Texas takes on Baylor at 6:30 p.m. CT on ABC.

Put Up or Shut Up: Texas will look to finally turn the corner vs ‘Bama

“We’re past the point of moral victories. Texas needs to win games like these.”

The No. 11 Texas Longhorns (1-0) face the No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide (1-0) on Saturday evening. It poses an opportunity to prove plenty for the current squad. We’re past the point of moral victories. Texas needs to win games like these.

The Longhorns have finished a close second far too often in these games. In 2019, head coach Tom Herman threw everything at the eventual national champion, LSU. Texas fell short by 7 points.

Last season, the Longhorns came within one point of upsetting the Tide. It was a nice story last year, albeit “almost” is no longer good enough.

After watching Texas’ first half struggles against Rice, many are probably wanting to lower the expectations for Texas in the game. There aren’t many teams that will go into Tuscaloosa and leave with a win. Certainly, they likely aren’t securing a win after playing like the Longhorns did last week.

The expectations, however, have not fallen based on last week’s performance. Texas has the five-star talent all over the field this season that opposing fans falsely suggest it always has present. This Longhorns squad is good enough to play its game and beat Alabama. It must play sharper to do so.

There is help on the way for the offensive line. The same five aren’t lining up on Saturday. With that, the high degree of offensive line woes could significantly diminish. The defensive front is primed for a big night. Wide receiver Xavier Worthy looks as good as he ever has in burnt orange.

It’s put up or shut up time in Austin. The team will look to shock the world on Saturday night.

Looking at what could be Texas’ undoing in pass coverage

Will Texas be more aggressive or continue to allow pitch and catch throws on third and fourth down?

The Texas Longhorns defense was one of the better defenses in the Big 12 last season. Even so, it had one fatal flaw, and it cost the team dearly in a loss against Texas Tech.

The Longhorns struggled particularly in allowing inside leverage routes. It didn’t appear the team did much to stop it. Last season Texas ranked No. 9 in the Big 12 conference in yards per snap (7.6) against the pass when opponents threw to an inside leverage route. Slant and sit routes against Texas Tech come to mind, although dig routes would certainly be included.

Texas defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski might be conceding shorter routes against some offensive attacks to avoid allowing the explosive play. Even so, the adjustments for the defense will need to come on third and fourth down where the Longhorns were horrendous early last season.

The Longhorns defense allowed a 41.3% conversation rate on third down compared to its offense’s 38.8% third down conversion rate. The trend continued on fourth down where opponents converted 57.1% of their fourth down attempts. Comparatively, the Texas offense converted 54.6% of their fourth down tries.

Texas has to win third and fourth down, and certainly can’t lose each by just under 3%. Doing so is how the team lost five close games. The Longhorns will look to improve on money downs in 2023.

Texas HC Steve Sarkisian wants his team to match opponents’ energy

“At some point, you have to hunt. You have to punch back… we have to make sure that (opponents) get our best shot.”

Steve Sarkisian is fed up with losing to lesser teams. The Texas Longhorns’ head football coach indicated its now time for his teams to take games rather than wait for wins to be handed on a platter.

Sarkisian said the following about how his team can approach the 2023 season and the Big 12 schedule.

“At some point, you have to hunt. You have to punch back… we have to make sure that (opponents) get our best shot.”

The Longhorns are certainly the hunted this season. When a team sees all the preseason acclaim and national attention in the conference, it comes with the territory. This time it’s warranted, and its giving ample motivation for opponents to bring upset-caliber performances against Texas. Sarkisian’s team needs to shut them down.

Texas has been passive in Big 12 play in recent season. That cannot happen anymore. It needs to prioritize winning the “Texas state championship,” a phrase Mack Brown once used for beating in-state teams on the schedule. Baylor, Houston, TCU and Texas Tech comprise one-third of the schedule and the majority of animus towards Texas.

How the team fares against the above four could determine the team’s ceiling. Texas will look to shut down potential upset bids as the season kicks off on Saturday.

College Football News previews matchup between No. 11 Texas and Rice

College Football News looks at how Texas will perform in the season opener.

It’s game week in Austin. Texas does not have a pushover in the first week according to College Football News. The site views the Rice Owls offense as one that could score on the Longhorns.

According to the respected site, Rice’s offense has a particularly strong receiver corps. We have noted Nebraska transfer Luke McCaffery, but CFN name drops Bradley Rosner as a player who could create issues for the Texas defense.

The quarterback throwing them the football is pretty good. The once five-star talent J.T. Daniels is now on his fourth college football team. He still possesses the arm that made him a coveted player out of high school.

CFN still sees the Longhorns winning decidedly. The site predicts the Longhorns will win, 52-16. The defense is viewed as what could be the team’s undoing in the game.

The publication opines that Texas has multiple NFL quarterbacks on hand with a loaded receiver room. Nevertheless, it questions the defense more than the offense in the game.

The Longhorns defense is nationally undervalued, but there are some weak points to exploit if you dig deep. Certainly, Texas allowed teams to chip away with long drives and third and fourth down conversions last season. It’s unlikely that Rice will be able to capitalize.

Texas will look to leave the game with a convincing and uneventful win.

ESPN College Gameday asks if it’s “now or never” for Texas football

“This appears, on paper, to definitely be the team to beat in the Big 12.”

ESPN’s College Gameday made waves on social media with its Big 12 predictions. The show’s college football analysts Kirk Herbstreit, Desmond Howard and Pat McAfee and its host Rece Davis all picked the Texas Longhorns to win the conference.

The panel made light of the pick after each selection was revealed. Kirk Herbstreit quipped that the graphic on the screen could haunt the crew later should the Longhorns lay an egg in 2023. Nevertheless, it still seemed enough like a slam dunk selection that the whole crew opted to vote in favor of the team.

Rece Davis pondered whether or not the upcoming season is a referendum on the football program.

“Is it now or never for Texas? … This seems to be the year they need to make that step forward. They’re a game over .500 under Sarkisian, they haven’t been good on the road. This is a big opportunity.”

The trio spent much of the time answering the question by discussing the improved culture and talent in Austin. Even so, the task of facing an SEC schedule looms large for the program. Winning the conference would go a long way toward proving Texas’ legitimacy as it heads to its new conference.

The expectations for a successful season are clear for Texas: Win 10 games or win a Big 12 championship. It will aim to live up to those expectations on the field.

Teams willing to spend are thriving during early NIL roster building

Texas is benefiting from NIL because they are adequately valuing the best players.

What are you willing to sacrifice to build a winning roster in college football? The teams willing to make those sacrifices are thriving in bringing in elite talent.

Five-star players are not going to commit to schools that are not fully committed to supporting them through Name, Image and Likeness (NIL). We have seen it bear itself out the last three cycles. Five-star players go where there’s a five-star commitment to their future. And if you think players are pampered, look at the money FBS coaches are making.

There’s no reward for being frugal or stingy on the recruiting front. It is off-putting when coaches making upwards of $5 million per year act as if skimping on NIL is a virtue. It’s especially off-putting in light of second-hand ticket markets charging $400 just to get into some major games.

Texas has benefitted from NIL because it has adequately valued players. Five-star players Quinn Ewers, Arch Manning, CJ Baxter, Johntay Cook, Anthony Hill, Devon Campbell Jr, Kelvin Banks, Xavier Worthy and Colin Simmons are feeling valued by the Longhorns. And if you’re not willing to sacrifice, you’re simply not going to win over these kind of players.

It is disingenuous to say a player is all about the money when coaches aren’t taking pay cuts to go to programs with less resources. Teams have to adapt, but it’s doable. Winning programs find ways to win the best talent.

Taking an early look at the season opener between Texas and Rice

Texas is carb loading with Rice before its biggest test.

We are a week away from Texas’ game with Rice. The matchup won’t excite most fans, but it’s still a season opener and it ends a long offseason without Texas football.

Rice and Texas have a history. The two former Southwest Conference foes have faced each other 96 times. Texas leads the series 74-21-1. We don’t expect the series to get competitive on Sept. 2.

While the Longhorns should win comfortably, the Owls have improved since the teams met in 2021. Last season, Rice made its first bowl game since 2013. It has played in 13 bowls all-time despite a 45-year drought from 1961 to 2006.

The current iteration of the Rice Owls includes a familiar name in starting quarterback JT Daniels. He is now on his fourth team after stints at USC, Georgia, and West Virginia.

It will be the third time Daniels will have traveled to play Texas. The veteran journeyman started for the USC Trojans against the Longhorns in 2018 before facing Texas last season in Austin. He is joined by a couple of former Power Five talents. Nebraska transfers in wide receiver Luke McCaffery and left guard Brant Banks will look to help elevate the Rice offense.

While we view the matchup as a tune-up game, there is plenty we can glean from the performance. We’ll be watching Ewers’ connection with his receivers, Devon Campbell Jr. in pass protection and several individual players on the defensive side.

Texas should be able to go vanilla and impose its will on Rice. It will presumably look to do just that as it kicks off the season.

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J.D. PicKell identifies depth, continuity as reason to buy ‘Horns

J.D. PicKell isn’t overthinking on the Texas Longhorns. They aren’t back, but they’re for real.

J.D. PicKell has no intention of overthinking his Texas prediction. Put simply, the depth and continuity is such that it should put the Longhorns firmly into the Big 12 title conversation. If everything falls right, the team’s ceiling could be even higher.

PicKell sees depth as a key component to this Longhorns squad that separates it from past teams on the Forty Acres. He shared the following of the team’s talented depth.

“The difference in this Texas team vs other Texas teams is the depth and the continuity.

They’re not just talented at one position group. They’re talented across the board and they’re deep across the board. … The depth there is very, very real. I had someone tell me this is one of the deepest teams they’ve had in the last decade.”

It is by far the deepest roster the Longhorns have had over the last decade. There haven’t been many deep Texas teams in recent years because the development was not there in the past two regimes.

This staff is different. It would seem head coach Steve Sarkisian and his coaching staff have wisely prioritized development over winning games over early in their time in Austin. And now that the development is such that the team can go out and win in 2023. PicKell discussed what Texas could look like in its third season.

“If you don’t have it together by Year Three, I don’t know what to tell you. I think at this point in time there’s some good faith baked in there with what they’ve done in terms of a positive trajectory from the last couple of years. So bottom line, Texas, back or not back I don’t know. But I promise you they are for real.”

There’s little reason to overthink Texas in 2023. The depth, continuity and collection of proven commodities should translate to more wins this season.

Josh Pate predicts Texas’ ceiling, floor and most likely record

Josh Pate says Texas’ most likely record is 11-1.

Burnt orange fever has reached Nashville. Another respected analyst has the Texas Longhorns winning the Big 12.

Josh Pate of the Late Kick podcast continued his series on setting ceilings and floors for college football teams. His predictions for Texas might surprise you. Pate set the same ceiling and floor that I did earlier this week. He has a 12-0 ceiling for the Longhorns with a 7-5 floor for the team. Pate shared his thoughts on why Texas should be considered as dangerous.

“Are you buying into Texas hype? Well, look. Apparently I am. But I don’t think it’s hype, I think there’s substance behind it. … Take the (Texas) logo away. Just look at the football players, and put Alabama jerseys on ’em or put Michigan jersey’s on ’em. You wouldn’t think this team’s about to do some big things or you wouldn’t think that team has potential? If you put Southern Cal uniforms on this Texas team every one of you would have them in the playoff.”

The college football analyst cites Texas’ defense and offensive line as substantive pieces that could lead it to a championship. Both of those components have been lacking on the Forty Acres for much of the last decade. But his high ceiling isn’t the biggest takeaway from his thoughts on Texas.

More surprising than the high ceiling is Pate’s most likely record prediction for the team. He believes the Longhorns’ most likely finish is an 11-1 season, which he indicated would be his prediction for the team. That would likely result in a College Football Playoff berth for the team.

I am not as high on the Longhorns as Pate, but the overwhelming talent advantage makes a 10-2 finish highly possible if not likely on the year. If Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian masters some of the nuances of the head coaching position, an 11-win season is certainly on the table.