‘It’s one of the fairest tests that we play out on Tour.’
Will Zalatoris is aware of the special connection he has to Arnold Palmer, even though he never had the pleasure of meeting him. The reigning PGA Tour Rookie of the Year is a graduate of Wake Forest, the school Palmer attended and supported throughout his entire career.
Zalatoris received the Arnold Palmer Scholarship from Wake Forest, an award started by the King in 1994 to reward an outstanding golfer with an impressive academic record.
“I got a letter from him congratulating me on winning the U.S. Junior and obviously accepting the scholarship. I’ve got that framed at my parents’ house. It was actually pretty cool,” Zalatoris said about receiving the scholarship. “Amy Saunders actually wrote me a letter as well after the Masters last year. It was pretty cool to see that tradition passed down in the family.
“Obviously being Rookie of the Year was a huge honor, but being on his scholarship as well at Wake Forest — I always tell people, when you get offered the Arnold Palmer scholarship to go play golf, I think your decision on schools is kind of made for you.”
The No. 30 ranked player in the world is still looking for his first win on the PGA Tour, although he came close at the Farmers Insurance Open back in January, eventually falling to Luke List in a playoff. He’s made just one start since thanks to a battle with COVID-19.
Despite his lack of recent Tour starts, he feels as though his game is in a good spot. The first major of the year is already on his mind, too.
“It’s feeling pretty good. I would have loved to come back and play after Torrey, but unfortunately, COVID hit me,” Zalatoris said at his press conference Wednesday at Bay Hill Club and Lodge. “I’ve been feeling really good. Game’s in a pretty good spot. Really the prep for the Masters starts now.
“Getting ready in terms of hitting some more draws off the tee. I’ve been doing a lot of practice on some big sloping putts. It’s nice to be playing a difficult golf course — really the next three events I’m going to play leading up to Augusta are some pretty tough golf courses.
“Obviously, the Match Play is pretty hypercompetitive, but when you have Sawgrass next week and obviously here, you can’t really fake your way around this golf course.”
Will Zalatoris hugs his caddie Ryan Goble on the 18th green during the final round of the 2021 Masters Tournament. (Photo: Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Sports)
Zalatoris seems to thrive when conditions get tough. He, of course, was the runner-up at last year’s Masters, posted a top-10 finish at Bay Hill in 2021, cashed in a top-10 at Winged Foot in 2020, and another top-10 at Kiawah Island.
He’s excited to plot his way around Palmer’s Orlando gem once again this week.
“The rough is as lush as it’s been. The greens tend to brown out by Sunday. The part that’s funny about this place is it doesn’t look that intimidating in terms of the shots that you hit, but one little mistake or one mis-hit, and you’re fighting your way to save par,” Zalatoris said about Bay Hill.
“That’s something that really — it’s one of the fairest tests that we play out on Tour, in my opinion, just because great shots are always rewarded, but mediocre shots, you’re going to have to scramble.”
Zalatoris currently ranks first in Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Tee to Green on the PGA Tour and will need that to continue if he wants a chance to win.
PGA Tour Commissioner Jay Monahan presents the Rookie of the Year Award to Will Zalatoris of the United States prior to the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard at Arnold Palmer Bay Hill Golf Course on March 02, 2022, in Orlando, Florida. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
As a recipient of the Arnold Palmer Scholarship, of the PGA Tour Rookie of the Year trophy (which features a depiction of Palmer), and a Wake Forest alum, slipping on the red cardigan Sunday evening would be a dream come true.
This week on the Twilight 9 podcast: Andy’s playing Bay Hill, an event preview, and much more.
The annual migration to Bay Hill Club and Lodge to honor one of golf’s largest icons will never get old. This week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational in Orlando is the perfect place to remember the King and his every lasting impact on the game of golf.
The PGA Tour’s biggest stars, including World No.1 Jon Rahm and 2018 champion Rory McIlroy, have descended on the Par 72, over 7,400-yard monster that is Bay Hill.
And Andy Nesbitt will be doing the same Wednesday morning.
The Twilight 9 podcast will have boots on the ground during the pro am scheduled for March 2, and throughout this week’s episode, Andy continued to proclaim he isn’t nervous.
But before we jumped into our Arnold Palmer Invitational preview and all of our picks for the week, we discussed the wild Sunday at PGA National. Daniel Berger seemed to have a stranglehold on the tournament, until he didn’t. Sepp Straka saw the opening and attacked, earning himself a PGA Tour win at one of the most difficult venues on the Tour’s circuit.
Scottie Scheffler already had an impressive resume. U.S. Ryder Cupper, PGA Tour Rookie of the Year, low amateur at the 2017 U.S. Open, and a 59. Then, two weeks ago in Scottsdale, he became a Tour winner. It was never a matter of if, it was when. Now, he’s looking for win No. 2.
“For me, winning is such a great feeling. It was so fun for me and my wife, like the money earned, rarely came into our head,” Scheffler said during his Tuesday press conference at Bay Hill Club and Lodge. “It was just being out here and competing and being able to actually win a tournament is pretty joyful.”
Scheffler, who is now No. 6 in the Official World Golf Ranking, has made four starts in 2022 and hasn’t finished outside the top 25.
Yes, yes it is. Not only is the Players Championship next week, but the first major of the year is also on the horizon. Scheffler tied for 18th at the Masters in 2021 and 19th in the November 2020 version.
But, he’s not looking too far ahead.
“This part of the year, it starts to get into those bigger events with the Players coming up, Match Play, the Masters. We’ve got a lot of big events coming up, this one included,” Scheffler said. “The weather is good here this time of year. So just come over, the golf course is in great shape. The rough is really healthy. We’ll have a good test this week.”
His first Arnold Palmer Invitational appearance was in 2020, where he tied for 15th, but he had some experience at Bay Hill when he was just an amateur.
Connor Black, left, and Scott Scheffler win their match 5&4 over the East on Wednesday during the morning foursome matches at the 2012 Wyndham Cup at Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando. (Photo: Tracy Wilcox/Golfweek)
“It was a really long time ago (laughter). I just remember being — it being so cool to come here and play the golf course. We watched it so many times on TV, watching Tiger win this tournament and make his putts on 18,” Scheffler said when asked about the 2012 Wyndham Cup. “So just kind of being on the same grounds where all that type of historic stuff had happened, it was just really cool coming here and being able to play. It was really special for them to let us come and play this golf course.
“We had a great time down here. Everybody stayed in the hotel right there on the putting green. Spent a lot of time on that practice putting green just having some good competitions with all the guys. It was a fun week.”
Palmer’s aura still radiates around Bay Hill, with his famous umbrella stationed at the range and his statue next to the 10th tee still serving as the mecca for fans in attendance looking to commemorate their visit to one of the most famous courses in the country.
Scottie Scheffler reacts on the second green during the third round of the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando. (Photo: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Scheffler had the honor of meeting the golf icon, even if it was just for a moment.
“I met him once at a tournament kind of in passing. I didn’t really get a chance to spend much time with him. For me, the first thing when I think of Arnie, I think of his golf swing. As someone who doesn’t have a perfect golf swing like myself, it’s kind of fun seeing his follow through and seeing the way he played golf, playing so aggressively and kind of with a quirky swing. I look up to him a lot.”
The young man from Dallas, Texas, is approaching this week with the right mentality.
Like Palmer always said: “You must play boldly to win.”
ORLANDO — Three weeks ago at the colossal party otherwise known as the WM Phoenix Open, Scottie Scheffler won the championship hardware in a playoff against Patrick Cantlay for his first PGA Tour title.
On the same day, rookie Sahith Theegala won the hearts and minds of golf fans. The 24-year-old had slept on the lead for three consecutive nights in the star-studded tournament and wasn’t wilting in the Arizona heat on the final day.
Looking for his first PGA Tour title, the product of Pepperdine took to the tee of the drivable 17th hole and hit a perfect tee shot. Until it wasn’t, the ball taking a wicked bounce to the left into the water by the green.
The resulting bogey led to a tie for third—his best result on the PGA Tour— and a thunderous serenade from the fans on the 18th green.
“THEE-GA-LA, THEE-GA-LA, THEE-GA-LA.”
While his Cinderella story fell short and a few tears were shared with his parents and 15 other family members on hand, the down-to-earth Theegala left TPC Scottsdale with his chest out and head held high.
“That was a really cool experience,” Theegala said Tuesday ahead of Thursday’s start of the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Lodge and Club. “The fact that so many people were cheering for me is cool. But also the fact that I put myself in a really good spot to win the event, it obviously gave me a lot of confidence.”
He certainly didn’t pout despite the tough break on 17 and winding up one shot short of a playoff. Theegala has dealt with tough times before. A wrist injury in college forced him to miss 10 months of tournament play. When he turned pro, COVID-19 got in the way.
“Being injured, especially an injury like that that I’ve never dealt with in my life, not being able to play tournament golf for 10 months, it gave me a different perspective,” he said. “I just found out that life’s not golf and golf’s not life, that I had a lot of great people behind me no matter what I do in life.
“That was definitely a perspective change for me, and sure enough, after I came back from the injury along with a few swing changes to help my body out a little bit, it was the best golf I ever played.
“I think a lot of that was mindset related for sure.”
His mindset is still in a good place. In 12 starts this season, he has two top-10s and two missed cuts. After coming so close in Phoenix, he drove 5½ hours to Los Angeles to play in the Genesis Invitational the following week, where he tied for 48th. Nothing out of the ordinary for Theegala, who still lives with his parents in Orange Country in California. He put 2,700 miles on his 2015 Passat driving to every west coast tournament. He even joked that he was going to drive from the west coast to Orlando.
Instead, he took a smooth flight to Orlando and is driving a GMC Denali this week.
“It’s so sick,” he said, in a good way.
That’s one reason the approachable guy with an easy smile is in a good mood. He’s ecstatic to play in a tournament with so much history, its name featuring Arnold Palmer. And the course put a smile on his face immediately.
“Gosh, I’m just obviously really happy to be here. Definitely a special vibe coming to this golf course and all the history and stuff behind it,” he said. “Probably one of the purest courses I’ve ever played in my life too, so that helps.
“Really excited for the week. The week off definitely made me hungry to get here.”
It’s time for one of the best weeks on the PGA Tour schedule.
To start, this is one of the best weeks on the PGA Tour. Bay Hill, a loaded field, and a week to honor one of the most influential figures in all of sports history — Mr. Arnold Palmer. The King paved the way for golf to become what it is today, and this week the best players in the world travel to his Orlando, Florida, gem for the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club and Lodge.
Bryson DeChambeau, who was set to enter the week as the defending champion, withdrew from the field Monday citing an injury. World No. 1 Jon Rahm is making his first appearance at the API and enters as the betting favorite at +750.
Golf course
Bay Hill Club and Lodge
Par 72, 7,466 yards, Bermuda grass
A tee box on the range is reserved containing a golf bag and umbrella for Arnold Palmer during the first round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club and Lodge. (Photo: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports)
Weather
Day
Temperature
Conditions
Percent chance of rain
Wind & Direction
Tuesday
78
Partly Cloudy
4 percent
12 MPH (NNE)
Wednesday
81
Mostly Sunny
6 percent
9 MPH (NE)
Thursday
84
Partly Cloudy
10 percent
8 MPH (ENE)
Friday
83
Sunny
9 percent
12 MPH (ENE)
Saturday
84
Mostly Sunny
7 percent
14 MPH (ESE)
Sunday
87
Mostly Sunny
8 percent
13 MPH (ESE)
Key statistics
Strokes Gained: Approach: The wind is projected to be in the mid-teens come the weekend making great iron play even more futile. We’ll be targeting lots of great ball-strikers this week.
Approach shots from 200-yards plus: Here’s the reasoning:
Bay Hill has yielded more approach shots from 200 yards away or further than any course on the PGA Tour since 2016.
Bryson DeChambeau led the PGA Tour in average proximity from 200+ yards away last season. He of course won this tournament in 2021.
Course Fit (compares golf courses based on the degree to which different golfer attributes — such as driving distance — to predict who performs well at each course – DataGolf): 1. PGA West (Nicklaus Course), 2. The Old White TPC, 3. Annandale GC
+4.65 units on position plays, and -3 units on outrights at Honda Classic.
+18.04 units on position plays in 2022. +14.5 units on outright plays in 2022.
Will Zalatoris – Top 20 (+135)
Will Zalatoris reacts after missing a putt on the first green during the final round of the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines Municipal Golf Course – South Course. (Photo: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports)
After nearly capturing his first PGA Tour title at Torrey Pines a little over a month ago, Zalatoris followed that up with another solid performance at the Genesis Invitational tying for 26th.
Zalatoris leads the Tour in SG: Approach and SG: Tee to Green this season while hitting 74.6 percent of greens (ninth on Tour). Length shouldn’t be a problem for the Wake Forest product this week as he ranks inside the Top 20 in that category.
Willy Z tied for 10th at Bay Hill last season.
Max Homa – Top 20 (+190)
Max Homa plays his shot on the first fairway during the third round of the Genesis Invitational golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Homa has finished T-14 (WMPO) and T-10 (Genesis) in his last two starts. He’s played in the Arnold Palmer twice, tying for 24th in 2020 and 10th in 2021.
A proven winner on the PGA Tour still getting these kinds of odds for a Top 20? Yeah, we’re gonna take that every time.
Rory McIlroy – Top 10 (+140)
Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland holds the trophy after his two-shot victory during the final round at the Arnold Palmer Invitational Presented By MasterCard at Bay Hill Club and Lodge on March 18, 2018, in Orlando, Florida. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)
Is this course history is any good?: T-10 (2021), T-5 (2020), T-6 (2019), 1 (2018), T-4 (2017), T-27 (2016), and T-11 (2015). Think that’s OK.
McIlroy has just one start on the PGA Tour under his belt in 2022, a T-10 performance at Riviera. On top of form and course history, he was first in greens in regulation from 200+ at the Genesis.
Long iron play has never been the problem for the four-time major winner, we’ll see if his short irons are up to the task.
Other names I’m considering for the card
Matt Fitzpatrick: Last 3 APIs: T-10, T-9, 2. He withdrew from the Genesis due to a stomach bug, but it’s been long enough that I don’t think that will have a huge impact. Last 2 starts on Tour: T-10 (WMPO), T-6 (Pebble).
Viktor Hovland: Doesn’t have a great track record at the Arnold Palmer, as he lacks a Top 40 finish on the resume. He missed the cut at the WMPO but bounced back nicely with a T-4 at the Genesis.
Jason Day: The Aussie won this event in 2016 and has had three T-31 or better finishes since (T-31 last season). He had a chance to win at Torrey earlier this season and was playing nicely at Pebble before stumbling home on Sunday and signing for T-24.
*Full betting card will be on my Twitter sometime Wednesday, March 2nd.
Analyzing the best fantasy golf options for the 2020 Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass. Can world No. 1 Rory McIlroy defend his title?
TPC Sawgrass welcomes the world’s best golfers for the 2020 Players Championship. The 144-man field is annually the strongest of the PGA Tour season, and Tiger Woods is one of just four golfers from the top 50 of the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings not in attendance this week. Here, we look at the top 30 fantasy golf options for The Players Championship.
TPC Sawgrass measures 7,189 yards and plays to a par of 72. Each of the last 11 winners finished 10-under par or better.
The Players Championship: Fantasy Golf Top 30
Mar 17, 2019; Ponte Vedra Beach, FL, USA; Rory McIlroy lines up his putt on the 18th green during the final round of THE PLAYERS Championship golf tournament at TPC Sawgrass – Stadium Course. (Photo Credit: John David Mercer – USA TODAY Sports)
Here are my top-30 fantasy golf rankings for the 2020 Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass.
30. Viktor Hovland
The Puerto Rico Open winner has struggled since what was expected to be an ice-breaking victory in the alternate event. He missed the cut at the difficult Honda Classic and tied for 42nd last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Poulter ranks fifth in this field with 58 career rounds played at TPC Sawgrass, according to Data Golf. He has gained an average of 1.33 strokes per round in that time. He was a co-runner-up in 2017 but finished just T-56 last year.
28. Tyrrell Hatton
Hatton picked up his first career PGA Tour win last week while surviving difficult conditions at Bay Hill Club & Lodge, but he missed the cut at Sawgrass each of the last two years.
27. Shane Lowry
The reigning Open champion missed the cut here three of the past five years but will enter as a major champ for the first time. He’s among the best in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Green.
26. Marc Leishman
The winner of the 2020 Farmers Insurance Open popped back up on the leaderboard last week and finished as the lone runner-up to Hatton. His putter is the only thing that can hold him back, and when it’s been on, he’s been a top finisher.
Mar 6, 2020; Orlando, Florida, USA; Scottie Scheffler hits his tee shot on the 18th hole during the second round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational golf tournament at Bay Hill Club & Lodge. (Photo Credit: Reinhold Matay – USA TODAY Sports)
25. Scottie Scheffler
The PGA Tour rookie debuts at TPC Sawgrass ranked No. 27 in the Golfweek rankings. He tied for 15th last week amid a horrible putting performance while his tee-to-green and approach games were nearly perfect.
24. Abraham Ancer
Ancer’s top finish of 2020 thus far was a runner-up result at The American Express, but he also tied for sixth in a strong field at the European Tour’s Saudi International. He ranks near the top of the field in Proximity from 125-150 Yards, a key distance for second shots at TPC Sawgrass.
23. Collin Morikawa
Morikawa had a disappointing weekend at Bay Hill, but he still finished inside the top 10 for the first time in a full-field event in 2020. He’s now up to 21 consecutively made cuts for the longest active streak on the PGA Tour.
22. Matt Kuchar
Kuch, the 2020 Players champ more recently tied for third in 2016. He hasn’t finished higher than T-17 in the three years since, but he has 50 career rounds played here to rank among the most experienced in the field.
21. Henrik Stenson
Stenson missed the cut last year and in 2016, but he has finishes of T-17 in 2015, T-16 in 2017 and T-23 in 2018. He ranks second in my stat model at Fantasy National in Greens in Regulation Gained over the last 36 rounds played by everyone in the field on courses shorter than 7,200 yards.
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20. Justin Rose
Rose missed the cut at Bay Hill and PGA National in each of his last two events to slip to No. 28 in the Golfweek rankings. He struggled with the flat stick last week and would have at least made it to the weekend with an average putting performance.
19. Tony Finau
Finau missed the cut back-to-back in 2016 and 2017, but he has responded with a T-57 finish in 2018 and a T-22 result in 2019. He missed the cut last week at Bay Hill, but he hasn’t missed the cut in back-to-back weeks since missing three straight from last year’s Memorial Tournament through the Travelers Championship.
18. Gary Woodland
Woodland has strung together consecutive strong results. He tied for 12th at the WGC-Mexico Championship before a T-8 result at the Honda Classic. The US Open winner tied for 30th here last year.
17. Jason Day
Day would be higher in these rankings if not for the back injury which forced his withdrawal at Bay Hill last week. The Aussie won in 2016 and has a T-8 and T-5 finish the last two years. He remains among the best in any field in SG: Around the Green.
16. Sungjae Im
Yet another recent first-time winner in this year’s field, Im missed the cut in his TPC Sawgrass debut last year. His best putting performances have come on Bermuda greens over his career, and he has been extremely strong off the tee the last two weeks.
Mar 7, 2020; Orlando, Florida, USA; Rickie Fowler hits his tee shot on the second hole during the third round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational golf tournament at Bay Hill Club & Lodge. (Photo Credit: Reinhold Matay – USA TODAY Sports)
15. Rickie Fowler
Fowler bounced back from a missed cut at PGA National to finish T-18 last week. He won here in 2015, but he missed the cut two of the last four years.
14. Brooks Koepka
Betting Koepka right now means banking solely on pedigree, which is never a bad idea. His best finish in the last five years was a T-11 in 2018, and he finished just T-56 last year. He hasn’t finished inside the top 10 in any global event since the Tour Championship, but he is Brooks Koepka.
13. Xander Schauffele
Schauffele debuted with a T-2 in 2018 but missed the cut last year. He has made the cut in four of five events to open 2020, but he has a top finish of just T-14 in Mexico.
12. Paul Casey
Casey is one of the top statistical fits by my stat model, but the veteran Englishman has struggled at TPC Sawgrass over his career. He has gained just 0.39 strokes per round across 29 rounds, and he missed the cut last year.
11. Patrick Cantlay
Cantlay returns from an injury absence to play for the first time since a T-17 result at the Genesis Invitational. He missed the cut last year following T-22 and T-23 finishes in 2017 and 2018, respectively.
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10. Patrick Reed
Reed has had a pedestrian run at TPC Sawgrass. While he has made the cut four of the last five years, his top finish was a T-22 in 2017. He’s the most recent winner of a WGC event in a comparable strength of field.
9. Bryson DeChambeau
DeChambeau has strung together three straight top-five finishes in 2020. He’s played here each of the last two years with a T-37 in 2018 and a T-20 last year.
8. Webb Simpson
The 2018 champ has 15 top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour since, including his 2020 win at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.
7. Adam Scott
Scott won here in 2004. He already claimed victory at the Genesis Invitational to start his 2020 campaign, after closing out his 2019 season with a win in the Australian PGA Championship.
6. Hideki Matsuyama
Matsuyama does well in the stadium setting of TPC Sawgrass and TPC Scottsdale. He has a T-7 and T-8 finish in the last four years.
Mar 5, 2020; Orlando, Florida, USA; Tommy Fleetwood hits his drive on the 15th hole during the first round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational golf tournament at Bay Hill Club & Lodge. (Photo Credit: Reinhold Matay – USA TODAY Sports)
5. Tommy Fleetwood
Fleetwood has gained more strokes per round at TPC Sawgrass than anyone else in the field with at least 10 rounds played at 2.34 strokes per round. He tied for fifth last year after a T-7 in 2018 and needs his breakthrough win.
4. Jon Rahm
Rahm tied for 12th last year for his best result in three trips to TPC Sawgrass. He took the last two weeks off for rest following a T-3 in Mexico and T-17 at the Genesis Invitational.
3. Dustin Johnson
Johnson picked up his best result in The Players Championship last year with a T-5. He has been largely unimpressive early in 2020, but he remains an elite scorer on these shorter courses.
2. Justin Thomas
Since finishing T-3 in 2016, Thomas has finished T-75, T-11 and T-35 the last three years. His putter has been shaky early in the year, though he’s a contender anytime it doesn’t cost him strokes.
1. Rory McIlroy
The defending champ has seven straight top-five results in global events and five straight fifth-place finishes on the PGA Tour. His putter cost him again last week; however, he gained 0.7 strokes on these greens last year and he only needs to be average with the flat stick.
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Analyzing the best fantasy golf options for the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club and Lodge.
Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Fla., hosts a field of 121 golfers for this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. Rory McIlroy, the 2018 champion, highlights those in attendance as the No. 1 golfer in the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings. Below, we look at the top fantasy golf options for the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Bay Hill measures 7,454 yards and plays to a par of 72. Each of the last eight winners finished 11-under par or better.
Arnold Palmer Invitational: Fantasy Golf Top 30
Mar 1, 2020; Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, USA; Tommy Fleetwood lines up his drive on the ninth hole during the final round of the 2020 Honda Classic golf tournament at PGA National (Champion). (Photo Credit: Reinhold Matay – USA TODAY Sports)
Here are my top-30 fantasy golf rankings for the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club and Lodge.
30. Vijay Singh
Vijay ranks second to Davis Love III in this week’s field with 94 career rounds played at Bay Hill and he has gained an average of 1.79 strokes per round to lead all golfers with a minimum of 70 rounds played, according to Data Golf. He missed the cut each of the last four years, but he was a three-time winner on the PGA Tour Champions circuit in 2018.
29. Brendan Steele
Steele is coming off a fourth-place finish at the Honda Classic at PGA National. He had a dominant tee-to-green game at the more difficult course. He tied for 17th here last year.
28. Sebastian Munoz
Munoz leads this field in opportunities gained over everyone’s last 36 rounds. He’s also fifth in the field in scoring on long par 3s ranging from 200-225 yards which are featured at Bay Hill.
27. Joaquin Niemann
Niemann is coming off missed cuts at the Genesis Invitational and the Honda Classic. He’s now six months removed from his first career win at A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier in September. He’s still giving himself scoring opportunities but has suffered from some awful putting performances.
26. Abraham Ancer
Ancer missed the cut here in his debut last year. He enters the week ranked 37th in the Golfweek rankings, and he had a strong 12th-place finish at the WGC-Mexico Championship two weeks ago. He can compete in these elevated status fields.
25. Billy Horschel
Horschel has made the cut here each of the last seven years, albeit with a top finish of T-13 in 2017. He’s a good putter on Bermuda greens and tee-to-green play has been a strength in his last three events.
Feb 23, 2020; Mexico City, MEX; Rafa Cabrera Bello plays his shot from the 16th tee during the final round of the WGC – Mexico Championship golf tournament at Club de Golf Chapultepec. (Photo Credit: Orlando Ramirez – USA TODAY Sports)
24. Rafa Cabrera Bello
Bello tied for third last year in his Bay Hill debut. He tied for 17th in a strong field at the Genesis Invitational and tied for 16th in Mexico.
23. Bubba Watson
Watson has made the cut here each of the last three years but without a considerable amount of success. His best finish in that time was a T-17 showing last year. He opened 2020 with two top 10s but has slipped in his last two outings.
22. Tyrrell Hatton
Hatton tied for fourth in 2017 but has had more middling finishes the last two years. He tied for sixth in Mexico and will play his first event in the USA of 2020.
21. Francesco Molinari
The defending champ is one of my favorite betting picks this week at inflated odds of +9000. He has been horribly out of form with three straight missed cuts leading into a T-53 result in Mexico, but the former Open champion can turn it around at any time and he has the course history.
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20. Matthew Fitzpatrick
Fitzpatrick was the lone runner-up here a year ago following a missed cut in 2018. He’s one of the top putters on Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting on Bermuda grass, and he has been dominant from tee-to-green since this time last year.
19. Viktor Hovland
The Puerto Rico Open champ missed the cut last week, but he’s statistically a much better fit to Bay Hill than PGA National. He shares the field lead in Opportunities Gained and ranks sixth in the class in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Mar 1, 2020; Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, USA; Lee Westwood hits his drive on the first hole during the final round of the 2020 Honda Classic golf tournament at PGA National (Champion). (Photo Credit: Reinhold Matay – USA TODAY Sports)
18. Lee Westwood
Westwood gave it a go at PGA National last week and gained 7.0 strokes putting. He has gained an average of 0.87 total strokes per round at Bay Hill for his career, but he hasn’t played here any of the last five years.
17. Justin Rose
Rose finished as the runner-up to Tiger Woods in 2013 for his best career finish at Bay Hill. He tied for ninth in 2016 and finished alone in third in 2018 before a T-63 result last year. He can score, and he’s good from the sand.
16. Marc Leishman
The 2017 champ of Bay Hill picked up his first win of 2020 at the Farmers Insurance Open. He struggled at the Genesis Invitational and the WGC event, but he’s a much better putter on Bermuda grass and could return to form.
15. Tony Finau
Finau skipped this event each of the last two years, but he’s a good fit with a strong tee-to-green game. He has been off since a 51st-place result at the Genesis, but he has two top 10s already this season at the Farmers and Waste Management Phoenix Open.
14. Henrik Stenson
Stenson is one of four golfers in this field averaging at least 2.15 strokes gained per round at Bay Hill for their career. He has plenty of experience here, with 42 career rounds under his belt near his North American home. He has three top-five results in the last five years.
13. Rickie Fowler
Fowler was one of the many notable names to miss the cut last week at PGA National. It was his second MC in his last three events, now matching his number of top-10 showings in 2020.
February 13, 2020; Pacific Palisades, California, USA; Jason Day hits from the fourth hole tee box during the first round of the The Genesis Invitational golf tournament at Riviera Country Club. (Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez – USA TODAY Sports)
12. Jason Day
Day continues to play sporadically. He’s coming off a missed cut at the Genesis on the heels of a fourth-place result at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The 2016 champion was forced to withdraw last year.
11. Collin Morikawa
Morikawa remains the safest bet on Tour to make the cut, always propping up his fantasy value. He’s fifth in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green, and he enters the week seventh in the Golfweek world rankings.
10. Sungjae Im
Last week’s winner captured his first PGA Tour title while gaining just a single stroke on the greens. He led the field with 3.07 strokes gained per round tee-to-green and can rely on that strength once again at Bay Hill.
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9. Byeong Hun An
An tied for fourth last week to continue what has been a strong season to date. He remains in search of his first PGA Tour win, but he has made the cut in four straight events, all in strong fields. Like Im, his tee-to-green game has been doing the heavy lifting, and he’s one of the best on Tour around the greens, except for putting.
8. Patrick Reed
The WGC-Mexico champ tied for seventh at Bay Hill in 2018 before a T-50 result last year. Putting was his main reason for success in Mexico, and he’s much worse on Bermuda grass than Poa Annua.
7. Brooks Koepka
Having slipped to No. 17 in the Golfweek rankings, it’s tough to remember Koepka being in as poor of form as he’s been in since finishing fourth at the Tour Championship. He has two missed cuts and a withdrawal in his last six events, and he has poor course history here. Still, he can turn it on whenever he wants.
6. Adam Scott
The Genesis Invitational champ followed it up with a 26th-place result in Mexico before taking last week off. His best showing here in the last five years was a T-12 in 2016, but he’ll look to follow the prior success of fellow Aussies Leishman and Day.
Feb 23, 2020; Mexico City, MEX; Bryson DeChambeau walks to the 17th green during the final round of the WGC – Mexico Championship golf tournament at Club de Golf Chapultepec. (Photo Credit: Orlando Ramirez – USA TODAY Sports)
5. Bryson DeChambeau
DeChambeau was the runner-up in Mexico following a T-5 showing at the Genesis. Tee-to-Green has been the best part of his game, but he’s also a great sand player and can escape the trouble of Bay Hill.
4. Hideki Matsuyama
Matsuyama ranks second in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green over everyone’s last 36 rounds, and he’s fourth in Opportunities Gained. His best result here was a T-6 in 2016.
3. Xander Schauffele
Schauffele has surprisingly not played here as a professional. He’s a natural course fit, however, with a strong tee-to-green game and he was excellent on approach while finishing T-14 in Mexico.
2. Tommy Fleetwood
Fleetwood again came close to his first career PGA Tour win last week, as he finished solo third at PGA National. He tied for third at Bay Hill last year, and he gained 9.0 strokes tee-to-green last week.
1. Rory McIlroy
McIlroy’s 2.78 strokes gained per round are more than anyone else in the field with a minimum of five rounds played at Bay Hill. He hasn’t finished worse than last year’s T-6 in the last three years at this event and he has finished in the top five at each of his last six worldwide events.
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Analyzing the golf betting odds to win the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational, with PGA Tour betting odds, picks, predictions and best bets.
Five of the top 10 golfers in the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings are in the field this week at Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Fla., for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Eight-time champion and 11th-ranked golfer Tiger Woods won’t be on hand, as he ensures his body is in peak shape for next month’s Masters. Below, we look at the golf betting odds and make our picks to win the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational.
The key stats for the 7,454-yard, par-72 Bay Hill Club and Lodge are:
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Opportunities Gained
Sand Saves Gained
Par 3 Efficiency: 200-225 Yards
Proximity from 200-plus Yards
My model at Fantasy National looks at the most recent 36 rounds for each golfer in the field.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Picks – Tier 1
(Photo Credit: Orlando Ramirez – USA TODAY Sports)
No one in the field with a minimum of 10 rounds played at Bay Hill has gained more strokes per round than McIlroy’s 2.78, according to Data Golf. The 2018 champ followed it up with a T-6 finish last year, and he tied for fourth in 2017.
He has finished in the top five in each of his last six worldwide events, including a win at the WGC-HSBC Champions. He’ll defend his 2019 Players Championship crown next week.
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Brooks Koepka (+2800)
The books seem to be toying with us by continuing to offer these lofty odds on the former world No. 1. He missed the cut at last week’s Honda Classic following a T-43 at the Genesis Invitational, and has had poor results here with a missed cut in 2017 and 2019. Auto-betting him at these odds is just a good overall strategy because as soon as he wins again, he’s back down to less than 10/1.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Picks – Tier 2
(Photo Credit: Kyle Terada – USA TODAY Sports)
Joaquin Niemann (+8000)
Niemann ranks second to only McIlroy in my stat model. He’s fifth in the field in opportunities gained and 11th in Proximity from the key distance. He tied for 46th last year, but has since picked up his first PGA Tour win.
Francesco Molinari (+9000)
A $10 bet on the defending champ would return a profit of $900 if he were to go back-to-back. The last golfer to win at Bay Hill in consecutive years was Matt Every in 2014 and 2015, and needless to say, Molinari is the far more accomplished golfer. He ranks second to McIlroy with 2.21 strokes gained per round at this venue in 28 career rounds played.
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Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Picks – Longshots
(Photo Credit: Kyle Terada – USA TODAY Sports)
Charles Howell III (+10000)
Howell has played 72 career rounds at Bay Hill to rank fourth in the field. He’s coming off a T-53 finish at the WGC-Mexico Championship following a T-59 at the Genesis Invitational, but his experience is worth a shot at these long odds.
Sebastian Munoz (+10000)
Like Niemann, Munoz has a win already in the 2019-20 PGA Tour season. He comes into the week ranked third in my stat model and 76th in the Golfweek rankings. He leads the field in Opportunities Gained and ranks fifth in scoring on the long par 3s.
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