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The Baltimore Orioles (96-69) and the Cleveland Guardians (74-82) wrap up a 4-game series Sunday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Guardians lead 4-2
The Orioles picked up a low-scoring 2-1 road victory in Saturday’s game, and Baltimore looks to grab the split in the 4-game series after losing the 1st 2 contests Thursday and Friday. The Under has cashed in 3 of the past 4 games overall for the Orioles. Despite the recent losses, Baltimore is still 1 1/2 games clear of the Tampa Bay Rays for 1st place in the AL East.
The Guardians have been eliminated from the postseason chase, but Cleveland isn’t showing any quit. It is above .500 in the past 9 games overall, including wins in 2 of the past 3 games in this series. The Under is 3-1 in the past 4 games for the Guardians, too.
Orioles at Guardians projected starters
RHP Kyle Gibson vs. RHP Triston McKenzie
Gibson (14-9, 5.00 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 180 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 9-5 in a road win vs. the Houston Astros Tuesday
- 2023 road splits: 8-4, 4.78 ERA (105 1/3 IP, 56 ER), 13 HR, .266 OBA in 18 starts
McKenzie (0-1, 4.50 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 13.5 K/9 in 10 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 6-4 home loss vs. the Houston Astros June 10
- Has been on the 60-day injured list since June due to a sprained right elbow
- Allowed 3 ER, 3 H and 1 BB with 2 K across 3 2/3 IP in a minor-league rehab start for Triple-A Columbus Tuesday
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Orioles at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:21 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Orioles -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Guardians -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles -1.5 (+155) | Guardians +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Orioles at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Orioles 4, Guardians 2
Moneyline
The ORIOLES (-110) are the play in this series finale. While the Guardians (-110) have really given the AL East leaders a hard time in Cleveland, the pitching matchup is squarely in the favor of the O’s in the final game of the set.
McKenzie is likely to be on a pitch count, and Cleveland will be very careful easing him back into the mix. Gibson, on the other hand, is a 14-game winner, and allowed 3 ER, 7 H and 1 BB across 5 2/3 IP in a win against the Guardians at Camden Yards back on May 30. Look for Gibby to handle his business again Sunday.
Run line/Against the spread
The ORIOLES -1.5 (+155) are worth a roll of the dice on the run line, although go lightly.
Baltimore failed to cover the run line Saturday, and it is 0-7 in the past 7 games on the run line as a favorite, losing 5 of the game outright.
Over/Under
The UNDER 8 (-105) is worth playing, although be cautious with McKenzie being a wild card of sorts. We don’t know what his pitch count will be, and how effective he can be against a contending Orioles team with a high-octane offense. The O’s have managed just 13 total runs of offense in the past 4 games, cashing the Under in 3 of the past 4, but you get a feeling they’re about to bust out soon.
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