When Baker Mayfield resurrected his NFL career in Tampa Bay last year, there was not much expectation that he would be much more than a viable starting quarterback. He shattered those expectations in 2024 by playing like a top-five quarterback and leading one of the best offenses in the NFL.
Just in terms of raw statistics, Mayfield was the best he has ever been. He set career highs in completion percentage (71.4%), passing yards (4500) and touchdowns (41) as well as rush yards (378) and rush yards per attempt (6.3). His raw passing numbers were only surpassed by Joe Burrow and Jared Goff.
Mayfield’s advanced metrics also hit career highs. He averaged 0.209 EPA per play and a 3.6 completion percentage above expectation. These were both top-five figures in the league in 2024 and the best of any Bucs quarterback not named Tom Brady.
Mayfield owes a significant portion of his 2024 success to offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who engineered the Bucs offense to be a top-five unit in the league and turned one of the NFL’s worst rush offenses into one its best.
Mayfield and Coen collaborated to keep the passing offense alive after the Bucs lost Chris Godwin for the season and Mike Evans for a brutal stretch, finding new weapons and leveraging Mayfield’s quick release. While this resulted in the second-lowest average depth of target of Mayfield’s career, it propelled the Bucs into its fourth straight NFC South division title.
Given how effective Mayfield was in 2024, there is not a major issue that he needs to work on this offseason. While he did throw a career-high 16 interceptions this season, his interception rate (2.8) was as far from being his career worst as it was from being his best. Another year in Coen’s offense would help as would having a healthier receiver corps next season, but all things being equal, there will likely always be some variance in Mayfield’s ball security. He is a gunslinger through and through.
The biggest question facing Tampa Bay’s quarterback room and the offense as a whole is whether Coen stays in Tampa Bay or leaves for one of the many head coaching vacancies across the league. His departure would put the Bucs in the familiar, if unenviable, position of installing a new offense, which is unlikely to be quite as potent or variable as the 2024 incarnation.
In any case, Baker Mayfield will be the Bucs’ starting quarterback in 2025. He is under contract through 2026, and with another season even resembling his 2024 performance, Mayfield could be looking at a massive extension as early as next year. His $35.7 million cap hit in 2025 is modest for a starting veteran quarterback, but the Bucs will be looking for savings after next season with key players like Mike Evans, Luke Goedeke and Cade Otton hitting free agency.
The only other real question facing the Bucs’ quarterback room is who will be backing up Baker Mayfield next year. 2021 second-round draft pick Kyle Trask has been Tampa Bay’s backup quarterback for the entirety of his rookie contract and has just 32 regular season snaps under his belt. Trask offers little upside at this point in his career, and his lack of live action reps will limit his asking price to continue on as the Bucs’ backup QB.
Keeping Trask makes a lot of sense for the Bucs at the right price. The next 10 quarterbacks earning more than Trask per season are all making less than $3 million per year, a modest raise from Trask’s $1.7 million 2024 cap figure.
The only other quarterback on the roster is undrafted rookie Michael Pratt, who spent the entire season on the practice squad. While he did sign a futures contract with the Bucs, he simply does not have the experience to enter the 2025 season as the presumptive primary backup.
The Bucs could opt for more upside and the continued discounts a rookie contract offers by letting Trask walk and targeting a rookie quarterback in the draft. While the Bucs certainly will not want to spend a premium draft pick at quarterback, there could be some enticing options in the middle rounds.
Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard is still a work in progress as a passer, but his running ability gives him a high floor to come into a game and give the offense some answers should Mayfield go down. Syracuse QB Kyle McCord showed a gunslinger mentality of his own after transferring from Ohio State this season. Both Leonard and McCord could be options for the Bucs from the third round to possibly the fifth.
The Bucs will not go into the offseason looking for an heir apparent to Baker Mayfield, who has earned the title of franchise quarterback in Tampa Bay. While the future of the offense as a whole is a little less certain, the Bucs now go wherever Mayfield leads them.