Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies odds predictions pick betting line spread – Page 2

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies – Game 1 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies Game 1 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Atlanta Braves (93-49) and the Philadelphia Phillies (78-64) open a 4-game series with Game 1 of a doubleheader Monday afternoon at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 4-2

The Braves have already clinched a playoff berth, and they’re currently 15 games clear in thr NL East of the 2nd-place Phillies with 20 games remaining for both teams. Atlanta has a league-leading plus-238 run differential, too.

Atlanta took 2 of 3 games from the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates over the weekend, but it is just 3-4 in the last 7 games. The Under cashed in Sunday’s series finale with the Bucs, but the Over is 5-1 in the last 6 outings, all at home.

The Phillies aren’t likely to win the NL East, but they’re still in great shape for a spot in the postseason, with a 96.5% chance of making the playoffs. Philadelphia enters this series with a 42-28 record at home, the 3rd-most victories at home in the NL.

Philadelphia dropped 2 of 3 games to the visiting Miami Marlins over the weekend, and it is just 4-6 in the last 10 games. Opposite of Atlanta, the Phillies have cashed the Under in 4 of the last 5 games overall.

Braves at Phillies – Game 1 projected starters

RHP Charlie Morton vs. RHP Taijuan Walker

Morton (14-11, 3.32 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 151 2/3 innings.

Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 3 K in 3-1 road loss vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers last Sunday
2023 road splits: 7-6, 3.42 ERA (76 1/3 IP, 29 ER), 2 HR, .260 opponent batting average (OBA) in 14 starts
2023 vs. Philadelphia: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 9 K in 2-1 home loss May 27

Walker (15-5, 4.15 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 147 1/3 innings.

Last start: Win, 5 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 9-7 road win vs. the San Diego Padres last Monday
2023 home splits: 7-2, 3.26 ERA (77 1/3 IP, 28 ER), 8 HR, .210 OBA in 14 starts
2023 vs. Atlanta: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 10 H, 1 BB, 1 K in 6-4 road win May 26

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Braves at Phillies – Game 1 odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:01 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Braves -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Phillies +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+110) | Phillies +1.5 (-135)
Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Braves at Phillies – Game 1 picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Braves 3

Moneyline

The PHILLIES (+115) are a solid value as short ‘dogs at home in the front end of the double dip.

Walker has been tremendous at home this season, with the opposition barely hitting above the Mendoza line against him at Citizens Bank Park this season. He has won 7 of his 9 decisions at home, too.

On the flip side, Morton is just one game above .500 on the road. However, he has been a victim of a late of offensive support in a lot of those away starts. This will be a well-pitched game on both sides, with the home side eking out a win in the opener.

Run line/Against the spread

The PHILLIES +1.5 (-135) aren’t priced out of line if you would like a little insurance against the 90-win Braves -1.5 (+110).

Philadelphia has won 8 of its last 12 games at home. The Phillies haven’t been underdogs at home much, going 8-6 in 14 games on the run line as a ‘dog at Citizens Bank Park this season, winning 8 of the games outright.

Over/Under

UNDER 10 (-115) is the lean, cashing in 4 of the last 5 games for the Phillies.

While the Over has dominated for the Braves lately, the Under is 2-0 in the previous 2 meetings between these teams in Philadelphia this season, while going 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings, including an Under result in Morton’s previous outing against Philadelphia, and a push in Walker’s assignment against Atlanta.

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Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Atlanta Braves (47-26) wrap up a 3-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies (38-35) on Thursday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 3-2

Wednesday’s matchup was postponed due to weather and the Braves won the series open 4-2 on Tuesday. Atlanta is currently on a 7-game win streak, and instead of starting RHP AJ Smith-Shawver as they planned for Wednesday, it will be RHP Bryce Elder on the mound Thursday.

The 2-run loss on Tuesday snapped a 6-game win streak for the Phillies, although they remain 9 games back of the Braves in the NL East. Wednesday’s projected starter, RHP Aaron Nola, is still expected to take the mound Thursday.

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Braves at Phillies projected starters

RHP Bryce Elder vs. RHP Aaron Nola

Elder (5-1, 2.60 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 83 IP.

Has logged 6 innings or more in 9 of his first 14 starts
Has given up 4 ER or more in 2 of his last 3 outings

Nola (6-5, 4.66 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 through 94 2/3 IP.

Has allowed 4 ER or more in 6 of his last 9 starts
May 25 at the Braves: 5 ER on 8 H with 2 BB and 7 K in 6 IP

Braves at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Braves -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Phillies -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+135) | Phillies +1.5 (-165)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Braves at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 4

Moneyline

I’ll side with the BRAVES (-115) on the road in this NL East showdown despite Nola being on the mound for the Phillies. Atlanta is a league-best 23-11 on the road this season and owns the best overall record in the National League.

Run line/Against the spread

Elder has looked solid for the Braves this season, but the Phillies are much more imposing with OF Bryce Harper back in the lineup. Philadelphia should keep this game close at home, which is why I’ll PASS on the run line.

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Over/Under

BET OVER 8.5 (-115).

The Braves have arguably the best lineup in baseball and already produced 5 runs in their previous meeting with Nola this season. Since the start of June, Atlanta leads the league in ISO (.235), wOBA (.399), and wRC+ (150) against right-handed pitching.

The Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these clubs in Philadelphia and 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings overall.

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Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Atlanta Braves (47-26) will play the 2nd game of a 3-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies (38-35) on Wednesday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 3-2

The Braves secured a 4-2 victory in the series opener on Tuesday to extend their win streak to 7 games. Atlanta is now 5 1/2 games ahead of the Miami Marlins in the NL East race.

With Tuesday’s 2-run loss at home to the Braves, the Phillies had their own 6-game win streak snapped. Philadelphia is now 9 games back of Atlanta for the NL East crown.

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Braves at Phillies projected starters

RHP AJ Smith-Shawver vs. RHP Aaron Nola

Smith-Shawver (1-0, 2.03 ERA) makes his 3rd start and 4th appearance. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 13 1/3 IP.

Has allowed a combined 3 ER on 9 H with 3 BB and 8 K in 11 IP over his first 2 career starts
Surrendered 2 HRs in his last start against the Colorado Rockies on June 15.

Nola (6-5, 4.66 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 through 94 2/3 IP.

Has given up 4 ER or more in 8 of his first 15 starts
May 25 at the Braves: 5 ER on 8 H with 2 BB and 7 K in 6 IP

Braves at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:45 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Braves +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves +1.5 (-190) | Phillies -1.5 (+155)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Braves at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 4

Moneyline

It’s tough to pass on the BRAVES (+105) at the current odds even with Nola on the mound for the Phillies. Atlanta is 5-0 in its last 5 games against a right-handed starter and has been playing great ball over its last 10 games.

Run line/Against the spread

While I think the Braves will win this game outright, I’ll PASS on the run line in this NL East tilt in what may be a tightly-contested affair.

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Over/Under

BET OVER 8.5 (-115).

The Over is an easy wager in this game despite Nola getting the nod for the Phillies. The Braves have produced 6-plus runs in 6 of the 7 games on their current win streak.

The Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Philadelphia and 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings overall.

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Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Atlanta Braves (46-26) and Philadelphia Phillies (38-34) open up a 3-game set Tuesday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is at 6:40 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 2-2

The Braves have won 6 in a row to extend their NL East lead to 4 1/2 games over the Miami Marlins. They’re doing it with the bats as they’ve averaged 9.33 runs per game during the stretch. Atlanta is 15-5 over the last 20 games and 12-5 against left-handed starters, which they’ll face Tuesday.

Philadelphia is also red-hot, winners of 6 in a row as well, and 8 of 10. Unfortunately, they haven’t been able to catch up much ground because Atlanta has been so hot. The Phils sit 8 games out in 3rd place. They are a solid 19-11 at home.

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Braves at Phillies projected starters

RHP Spencer Strider vs. LHP Ranger Suarez

Strider (7-2, 4.12 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and a league-leading 14.5 K/9 in 78 2/3 innings.

Last start: Win, 6 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 6 K Wednesday against the Detroit Tigers
Last 5 starts vs. Phillies: 4-0, 1.82 ERA, 0.61 WHIP, 38 K in 24 2/3 IP

Suarez (1-2, 3.82 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 37 2/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 7 K Wednesday against Arizona Diamondbacks
Last 5 starts vs. Braves: 1-2, 3.21 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 23 K in 28 IP

Braves at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:50 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Braves -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Phillies +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+105) | Phillies +1.5 (-130)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Braves at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 7, Phillies 4

Moneyline

The Braves are just 2-5 in their last 7 in Philadelphia, but they are so locked in right now. There is something to be said about their last 3 series coming against lesser teams in Washington, Detroit and Colorado, but with the Braves’ stud on the hill and their success against lefties, we’ll take the BRAVES -145.

Run line/Against the spread

Strider has given up 5 ER in each of his last 2 starts and 4 ER in 3 of 6 starts. The Braves have the edge in the back end with the 9th-ranked 3.59 bullpen ERA while Philadelphia is 20th at 4.17. There has only been 3 one-run games in this matchup over the last 10 games. Atlanta is 19-14 on the RL on the road.

I’ll back the BRAVES -1.5 (+105) for a HALF-UNIT.

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Over/Under

The Braves are averaging north of this total by themselves over the last 6, and the Phils have plated 5 runs or more in 6 of 10. The Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 between the teams. With Strider allowing at least 2 ER in his last 6 starts and the Braves’ bats doing what they’re doing, the OVER 8.5 (-120) seems like a no-brainer.

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NLDS Game 4: Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies Game 4 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (1-2) and Philadelphia Phillies (2-1) continue their NL Division Series at 2:07 p.m. ET (FS1) at Citizens Bank Park Saturday. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Best-of-5 series: Phillies lead 2-1
Regular-season series: Braves won 11-8

NL East-champion Atlanta was bludgeoned 9-1 Friday. A Braves pitching staff that logged a 3.48 ERA during the regular season has now had more than a couple missteps of late. Atlanta shut out Philadelphia in Game 2 of this series, but in the losses it has yielded 7 and 9 runs, respectively. Before that, on the last day of the regular season, the Braves coughed up 12 runs in a loss to the Miami Marlins (Oct. 5).

The Phils had a pair of home runs Friday and also went 4-for-7 with runners in scoring position. Philadelphia has now clubbed 21 home runs in its last 12 games on home turf. The Phils are 8-4 over those last dozen games at Citizens.

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Braves at Phillies projected starters

RHP Charlie Morton vs. RHP Noah Syndergaard

Morton (9-6, 4.34 ERA) authored a 1.23 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 through 172 IP across 31 regular-season starts.

Owns a 2.51 ERA over his last 10 postseason starts
Struggled down the stretch of the regular season: posted a 6.23 ERA over his last 5 starts. The worst of those 5 turns was when he allowed 6 ER in 4 2/3 IP in a road start against Philadelphia.

Syndergaard (10-10, 3.94 ERA) pitched in 25 games (24 starts) in the regular season. He logged a 1.25 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 in 134 2/3 IP. The veteran righty did not pitch in the Wild Card Series, but he did pitch a scoreless inning of relief in Game 2 of this series.

Clocked a 4.55 ERA over his last 29 2/3 IP
Posted a 3.47 ERA at home
Has held current Atlanta bats to an aggregate .624 OPS

Braves at Phillies odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:40 a.m. ET.

Moneyline: Braves -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Phillies +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+127) | Phillies +1.5 (-165)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -101)

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Braves at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 4, Phillies 3

Moneyline

The Phillies getting healthy and able to have OF Kyle Schwarber and DH Bryce Harper — both lefty swingers — in the top 4 of their lineup was a big help against RHP Spencer Strider Friday, and it figures as a boon against Charlie Morton as well. Morton allowed a .771 OPS against lefty bats in the regular season; he has allowed a .762 mark against them for his career (.660 OPS allowed against right-handed batters).

The Phillies are a hard lean for the series, not so much of one at these prices in this game (would take the Phils at +110).

Run line/Against the spread

Same analysis as above, although with a likeable Under, Philadelphia bettors may want to consider a +1.5 wager if the tag drops below -160. Syndergaard isn’t the pitcher he was, and the Braves should get to him. Let’s take the BRAVES OVER 3.5 TOTAL RUNS (-180) for a HALF UNIT.

Over/Under

Morton has allowed a high rate of fly balls leaving the yard, and his expected season ERA is a good bit lower than his surface mark. Syndergaard has the nice history at home and against the Braves. The Phils right-hander owns a 2.33 ERA across 27 career IP in the postseason. But again, he’s not that type of pitcher anymore.

Throw in an undervalued Philadelphia relief corps and rested back ends for both bullpens, and the UNDER 8.5 (-101) is a very strong play.

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NLDS Game 3: Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies NLDS Game 3 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies resume their best-of-5 NL Division Series at 4:37 p.m. ET Friday game at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Playoff series: Tied 1-1

NL East champion Atlanta went 3-for-4 with runners in scoring position en route to bouncing back from a 7-6 Game 1 loss to win 3-0 in Game 2. The clutch hitting helped the Braves win despite failing to homer for just the 2nd time in its last 13 games, including the regular season.

The Phillies on Thursday were held without a round-tripper for the 5th time in their last 6 games. Philadelphia will likely be glad to get back home where it has banged out 19 home runs in its last 11 games. The Phils logged a robust .840 OPS in going 7-4 in those 11 home games. They ended the season on a long road trip before heading into their Wild Card Series against the St. Louis Cardinals. Philadelphia has not had a home game since Sept. 25.

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Braves at Phillies projected starters

RHP Spencer Strider vs. RHP Aaron Nola

Strider appeared in 31 games (20 starts) in the regular season. He registered an 11-5 mark while posting a 2.67 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 13.8 K/9.

Has not pitched since Sept. 18 (6 IP, 1R allowed on 1H against these Phillies) due to a late-season oblique strain
Logged a regular-season road ERA of 3.25

Nola (11-13, 3.25 ERA) had a 0.96 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 through 205 IP in 32 starts in the regular season.

Had a 2.60 ERA, 0.90 WHIP in his last 5 starts of the regular season
Pitched Game 2 against St. Louis: 6 2/3 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K
Owns a 3.46 ERA, 0.95 WHIP over his last 3 seasons at Citizens

Braves at Phillies odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:37 a.m. ET.

Moneyline: Braves -108 (bet $108 to win $100) | Phillies -112 (bet $112 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+160) | Phillies +1.5 (-210)
Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -135 | U: +107)

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Braves at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Braves 2

Moneyline

Strider returning from injury is a wild card here. His overall numbers — and certainly his strikeout numbers — have been just tremendous all around. But lefty bats do increase a lineup’s chances against him. The Phils — with OF Kyle Schwarber and maybe DH Bryce Harper — may be able to get a cross an odd run or 2 in the first 3-4 innings.

Due to a 4.27 ERA in the regular season (23rd MLB), the Philadelphia bullpen figures to be underrated. But that group does well to limit hard contact and was undone by a .314 batting average on balls in play. For this one, that Philly bullpen is well-rested.

BACK THE PHILLIES (-112).

Run line/Against the spread

Too. Much. Juice. AVOID.

Over/Under

In a bit of an against-the-grain play, figure these offenses being a tad overrated. A lot of lofty numbers have been posted against lesser pitching than when they’ll see Friday. Throw in the Philadelphia relief angle, and the UNDER 6.5 (+107) is a solid wager.

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Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (58-40) and Philadelphia Phillies (50-46) continue their 3-game NL East series Tuesday. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: tied 4-4.

The Braves lost Monday’s opener 6-4 and are 2-2 since the All-Star break. Atlanta is 16-6 with an .810 OPS over its last 22 games on the road.

The Phillies snapped a 3-game skid with Monday’s triumph. On offense that had scuffled of late (.632 OPS July 6-24) cranked out 12 hits in the win.

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Braves at Phillies projected starters

RHP Spencer Strider vs. RHP Aaron Nola

Strider (4-3, 3.03 ERA) owns a 1.05 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 13.8 K/9 through 74 1/3 IP across 10 starts and 11 bullpen appearances.

Allowed just 2 runs over 22 2/3 innings pitched across 4 starts from June 26-July 12 but was tagged for 5 runs in a 4-frame stint July 17 at the Washington Nationals in his last start.
Pitched 2 2/3 scoreless innings in relief vs. Philadelphia May 25.

Nola (6-7, 3.13 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 0.91 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 through 126 2/3 IP.

Current Atlanta bats own an aggregate .749 OPS against him.
Has given Philly at least 7 innings in 8 straight starts. Owns a 2.25 ERA over that stretch.
Has scuffled at home of late with a 4.91 ERA across his last 33 IP at Citizens Bank Park.

Braves at Phillies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:19 a.m. ET.

Money line: Braves -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Phillies +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+135) | Phillies +1.5 (-170)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Braves at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Braves 3

Money line

Philadelphia is undervalued by its 10-16 mark in 1-run games. The club’s 4.63 runs per game versus 4.15 allowed is a profile worthy of a few more wins than what shows in the standings.

The youngster Strider is pitching on 8 days’ rest due to the All-Star break and is a wild card.

Philly’s bullpen has improved over recent weeks and is in good shape at the back end.

The Phillies are the lean, but early betting has swayed the line into likely no-leverage territory. PASS or revisit if the Philadelphia payout reaches +105 or better.

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Run line/Against the spread

A Phillies +1.5 play — one with an Under lean on a low total — would be attractive at -155. PASS otherwise.

Over/Under

The surface numbers for both starters are very much for real, and the righty-righty matchup avoids the platoon strength of both offenses, which is facing left-handed pitching.

On a low-humidity evening in Philadelphia, TAKE THE UNDER 7.5 (-107).

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Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (58-39) head to Citizens Bank Park Monday to start a 3-game series with the NL East co-tenant Philadelphia Phillies (49-46) at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Atlanta leads 4-3 despite Philly having a plus-7 run differential in those meetings.

The Braves were drilled by the Los Angeles Angels 9-1 Sunday but won the first 2 games of the 3-game set and are 6-4 over their last 10 games.

The Phillies were swept in a 3-game home series vs. the Chicago Cubs this past weekend and are just 3-7 in their last 10 contests.

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Braves at Phillies projected starters

LHP Max Fried vs. LHP Ranger Suarez

Fried is 10-3 with a 2.64 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 119 1/3 IP over 19 starts.

Last start: Win, 6-3, July 16 at the Washington Nationals with 7 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 0 BB and 4 K.
2022 vs. the Phillies: No-decision in Atlanta’s 6-5 home win May 24 with 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 5 K.

Suarez is 7-5 with a 4.07 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 84 IP across 16 starts.

Last start: Win, 10-0 July 16 at the Miami Marlins with 5-scoreless IP, 4 H, 0 BB and 4 K.
2022 vs. the Braves: 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA (11 IP, 9 ER), 12 H, 2 HR, 6 BB and 11 K in 2 starts.

Braves at Phillies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:55 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Braves -180 (bet $180 to win $100) | Phillies +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (-103) | Phillies +1.5 (-117)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

Braves at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 8, Phillies 4

Money line

RISK 1 UNIT on the BRAVES (-180) instead of betting to win 1 unit because Atlanta’s RL is my favorite look in this game and we are getting by far the worst of the number since Atlanta’s ML opened at -151, according to Pregame.com.

Suarez has gotten raked in his 2 starts vs. the Braves this season and Atlanta’s lineup is far more productive vs. left-handed pitching than Philly’s.

The Braves are 24-10 vs. left-handed starters while the Phillies are 15-13 against lefties. Atlanta’s lineup outranks Philly’s vs. left-handed pitching in wRC+ (119-109), wOBA (.343-.328), ISO (.193-.174) and hard-hit rate (35.5-30.1%), per FanGraphs.

If your standard unit is $100, bet $100 on the BRAVES (-180) to earn a $55.56 profit instead of betting $180 to win $100.

Run line/Against the spread

BET BRAVES -1.5 (-103).

They are 16-11 RL as road favorites and 7-2 RL as road favorites vs. left-handed starters with a plus-53.2% return on investment and an average final score of 6.33-3.33.

BRAVES -1.5 (-103) is my favorite bet in this game.

Over/Under

LEAN to the OVER 8.5 (-102).

Money has poured in on the Over and the Phillies are 0-6 O/U as home underdogs.

However, Philly is 10-5-1 O/U in Suarez’s 16 starts, Atlanta is 6-3 O/U as a road favorite vs. left-handed starters and Braves-Phillies have a combined 43-28-2 O/U record vs. NL East foes.

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Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (43-32) and Philadelphia Phillies (39-36) meet Thursday at 6:05 p.m. ET to cap off a 3-game series at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Atlanta leads 3-2.

The Braves beat the Phillies 4-1 Wednesday after winning 5-3 Tuesday and are looking to pull off the sweep. Atlanta is 11-2 with an .848 OPS in its last 13 games away from home.

The Phillies have pitched well in June, but the bats have been in and out. Of late, they seem to be out: Philadelphia is 3-6 with a .580 OPS in its last 9 games.

Braves at Phillies projected starters

RHP Ian Anderson vs. RHP Aaron Nola

Anderson (6-4, 4.60 ERA) is making his 15th start of the season. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 74 1/3 IP.

Now in his 3rd season, he has a 3.25 ERA in his first 30 MLB starts.
Has struggled of late with a 5.40 ERA, 1.57 WHIP in his last 7 starts.
Has pitched better on the road than at home: 3.55 ERA, 1.27 WHIP.

Nola (4-5, 2.98 ERA) has registered a 0.90WHIP, 1.2 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 in 96 2/3 IP.

Has 0.90 ERA, 0.83 WHIP over last 40 IP in his last 4 starts.
Current Atlanta batters own a .757 OPS against him.

Braves at Phillies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 10:03 a.m. ET.

Money line: Braves +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Phillies -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
Run line (RL): Braves +1.5 (-160) | Phillies -1.5 (+130)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Braves at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Braves 3

Money line

Atlanta has the much hotter offense of late, and it’s one that performs quite well on the road. But Nola is the great counterweight here. His surface ERA is very much for real. PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

The Phillies are a club whose June successes came against a suspect schedule. Atlanta’s numbers against Nola are encouraging enough to make for a small-to-moderate-confidence play on the BRAVES +1.5 (-160).

Over/Under

With Nola on the mound and a rested back end of the Philly bullpen behind him and with Philadelphia’s recent scoring issues, BACK THE UNDER 8.5 (-107).

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Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (43-32) and Philadelphia Phillies (39-36) meet Wednesday night at 7:05 p.m. ET to continue a 3-game series at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Atlanta leads 2-2.

The Braves are looking to stay hot on the road. Atlanta is 10-2 over its last 12 games away from home.

The Phillies have pitched well in June, but the bats have been in and out. They seem to be out: Philadelphia is 3-5 with a .593 OPS over its last 8 games.

Braves at Phillies projected starters

RHP Kyle Wright vs. LHP Ranger Suarez

Wright (8-4, 3.18 ERA) has made 14 starts this season. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 through 85 IP.

Has fared well against lefty bats (.611 OPS), and that is a big key against the Phillies.
Has allowed 9 runs on 21 hits over his last 2 starts (11 1/3 IP).

Suarez (6-4, 4.23 ERA) owns a 1.48 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 through 72 1/3 IP over 14 starts.

Has been solid and consistent of late, notching a 3.45 ERA since May 31.
Has had some missteps at home (5.10 ERA, 1.73 WHIP).

Braves at Phillies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 7:55 a.m. ET.

Money line: Braves -140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Phillies +115 (bet $115 to win $100)
Run line (RL): Braves -1.5 (+115) | Phillies +1.5 (-140)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

Braves at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 3

Money line

Atlanta has the hotter offense, and it’s one that performs quite well on the road. The Braves’ .740 road OPS ranks 4th in the league.

Wright has been perhaps better of late than what pops in his surface line. Atlanta (-135) would be a workable play on the money line. PASS otherwise.

Run line/Against the spread

The Phillies are a club whose June successes came against a suspect schedule.

Wright has perhaps run into some bad rates around the margins of late, and a mid-summer surge would not be a surprise.

Suarez has had some trouble against right-handed bats (.809 OPS allowed). The Braves lean more to the right than most lineups, and their .809 OPS against southpaws ranks second in MLB.

TAKE ATLANTA -1.5 (+115).

Over/Under

There are multiple reasons to sway either way in this matchup. The signals crisscross, which should likely make us avoid the O/U. But there is a slight lean toward the Under. The price has come down just enough to LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-102).

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