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The Atlanta Braves (52-42) and San Diego Padres (50-48) close out their 3-game series on Sunday. First pitch from Petco Park is at 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres lead 4-2
The Braves took the opening game of the series 6-1 on Friday but were shut out 4-0 on Saturday. They have lost 3 of their last 4 and are 6-7 in their last 13 games.
The Padres snapped a 5-game skid with the 4-0 win. They have lost 2 consecutive series.
Braves at Padres projected starters
LHP Chris Sale vs. RHP Randy Vasquez
Sale (12-3, 2.74 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 0.94 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 11.7 K/9 in 105 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 9 K in 6-2 road win over Arizona Diamondbacks on Tuesday
- Has 6 consecutive starts allowing 2 or fewer runs
- Is 3-0 with 1.17 ERA in 3 career starts vs. Padres
- Threw 7 scoreless innings in 3-0 win over Padres on May 20
Vasquez (2-4, 4.66 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.60 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 in 58 IP.
- Last start: No decision, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 10-8 home win over Diamondbacks on July 5
- Allowed 2 or fewer runs un 4 of last 5 outings
- Was on losing end of start against Sale and Braves on May 20
- Is 0-2 with 4.82 ERA in 2 career starts vs. Braves
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Braves at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:37 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Braves -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Padres +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+100) | Padres +1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Braves at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 6, Padres 4
Moneyline
The Braves are 12-5 in Sale’s starts this season and have won 4 of his last 5 outings. Opponents have scored 3 or fewer runs in 6 consecutive of Sale’s outings and in 14 of his 17 starts.
The Padres have won Vasquez’ last 3 starts and 4 of his last 5.
The Padres are 26-28 against teams with winning records like the Braves.
Expect the Braves to take the finale but don’t bet them at -175 when there is better value going with the run line.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
All 12 of the Braves’ wins with Sale pitching have been by 2 or more runs.
The Padres’ last 8 losses and 11 of their last 12 losses have been by 2 or more runs.
BET BRAVES -1.5 (+100).
Over/Under
The last 4 starts for Vasquez have had totals of more than 7 runs.
The Braves have had their last 3 games fail to reach 8 total runs but the 3 games previous to that had 8 or more.
Only 2 of the 6 games between the 2 teams have had 8 or more total runs this season.
BET OVER 7.5 (-110).
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