Tag: Astros Braves odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Houston Astros at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Houston Astros at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros (11-10) and Atlanta Braves (14-7) close out their 3-game series at Truist Park Sunday at 1:35 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Houston leads 2-0

The Astros won Friday’s series opener 6-4 and Saturday’s game 6-3. Houston is now 5-1 in its last 6 road games.

The Braves have now lost 3 straight after winning 8 in a row from April 10-18. Clutch hitting has been a difference maker the last 2 days in Atlanta. The Braves have gone 3-of-14 with runners in scoring position while the Astros have gone 6-of-19.

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Astros at Braves projected starters

RHP Cristian Javier vs. LHP Max Fried

Javier (2-0, 3.68 ERA) is tabbed for his 5th start of the season. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 22 IP.

  • Notched a 2.54 ERA in 148 2/3 IP last season
  • Faced Atlanta once last year: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 K in 5-4 loss on Aug. 10
  • Has been a fly-ball pitcher throughout his career, but is getting more ground balls this year (37.3% GB)

Fried (1-0, 1.08 ERA) is lined up for his 3rd start. He has logged a 0.96 WHIP, 0.0 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 in 8 1/3 IP.

  • Making his 2nd start off the IL (hamstring) and could be on a more strictly managed pitch count
  • Has been a slow starter throughout his career: .723 OPS allowed in March/April games; sub-.700 all other months

Astros at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:45 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Astros +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Braves -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-175) | Braves -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Astros at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 5, Braves 4

Moneyline

A slight lean toward Houston here, but not an actionable one. Javier and his sub-.234 batting average on balls in play each of the last 3 years is tough to get behind. PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

More juice here. And less of a lean: PASS.

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Over/Under

BABIP-fade Javier has gone past 95 pitches in each of his last 3 starts. That’s relatively rare for him, and in similar past situations, the 4th time out has yielded a bounce.

Fried is a question mark in his 2nd start back from a hamstring issue, and Houston has hit lefties well (.793 OPS with .259 BABIP).

On a wind-blowing-out day in Atlanta, BACK THE OVER 8 (-115).

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Houston Astros at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Houston Astros at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Houston Astros (10-10) meet the Atlanta Braves (14-6) Saturday for the middle contest of a 3-game weekend set at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Houston leads 1-0

The Astros won Friday’s series opener 6-4. Atlanta scored 4 runs in the bottom of the 1st inning and then did not dent the plate again. Houston is now 4-1 over its last 5 road games.

The Braves won 8 in a row from April 10-18, but they have now lost 2 straight. The Atlanta bullpen toted a 2.71 ERA into this series but was undone in allowing 5 runs Friday.

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Astros at Braves projected starters

LHP Framber Valdez vs. RHP Kyle Wright

Valdez (1-2, 1.80 ERA) is tabbed for his 5th start. He has clocked a 1.16 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 25 IP.

  • Allowed 5 runs, but just 1 earned, in his last start vs. the Texas Rangers Sunday
  • Has posted a tidy 2.51 ERA on the road over the last 3 seasons (2021-23)

Wright (0-0, 6.23 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.73 WHIP, 7.3 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 through 8 2/3 IP.

  • Has been hurt by a .320 batting average on balls in play
  • Came off the 15-day IL (shoulder) to make his season debut April 11
  • Owns a 4.20 ERA across 259 career IP

Astros at Braves odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:58 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Astros -112 (bet $112 to win $100) | Braves -104 (bet $104 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+140) | Braves +1.5 (-170)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -122)

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Astros at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 5, Braves 3

Moneyline

A slight lean toward Houston here. Atlanta is playing good ball but has played an easy slate thus far. Its pitching is due for a regression slide.

Run-line-verse bettors may want to consider a partial-unit play on the ASTROS (-112).

Run line/Against the spread

Valdez on the road is intriguing in this spot. He has lock-down numbers against current Atlanta batters (.539 OPS allowed). In his last start, the Houston port-sider may have bounced a bit after 100-plus pitches in his previous 2 efforts. Valdez has a history of being a fast starter (.607 OPS allowed in March/April starts).

Wright brings some question marks in after the spring shoulder issue, and the Astros bullpen is in slightly better shape for this game.

In its 4-1 road mark of late, the Astros have won all 4 games by multi-run margins. This is a moderate lean but consider a partial-unit play on HOUSTON -1.5 (+140).

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Over/Under

The Under was a solid — but losing — play in Friday’s meeting. The pitchers change up the equation for game 2. The offenses lean Under, but the pitching fights back (not that the starters are bad, just likely overrated by their surface numbers). The caught-in-the-middle play is a PASS.

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Houston Astros at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Houston Astros at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros (77-43) continue on the road to face the Atlanta Braves (73-47) Friday in the opener of a 3-game set at Truist Field. First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: First matchup; Braves won series 4-2 in 2021

The Astros are coming off a split of a 4-game series at the Chicago White Sox. They put up 21 runs Thursday afternoon before they hit the road, and they have won 7 of 10. Houston is 1 of the best road teams at 38-25. The Astros will have their hands full with a hot Atlanta team, though.

The Braves are coming off a 3-2 win over RHP Jacob deGrom and the New York Mets. Atlanta has won 9 of 10 and 20 of 30. Their 40-23 mark is 1 of the best home records in baseball. They are doing it with pitching, too, as they have allowed 2 of fewer runs in 6 of the last 7 games.

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Astros at Braves projected starters

RHP Lance McCullers Jr. vs. RHP Kyle Wright

McCullers (1-0, 0.00 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 6.0 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 6 IP.

  • Allowed 2 H and 4 BB while fanning 5 in 6 shutout innings in his first start of the season Saturday against Oakland after rehabbing a strained flexor tendon in his forearm
  • Was 13-5 with a 3.16 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and a 10.3 K/9 in 28 starts last season

Wright (14-5, 3.14 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 134 2/3 IP.

  • Last outing: Won 8-4 at Boston Aug. 10 with 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K
  • Missed his last start because of pitching arm fatigue
  • More effective at home: 9-2, 3.05 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 vs. 5-3, 3.27 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 7.9 K/9 on road

Astros at Braves odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:07 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Astros +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Braves -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-200) | Braves -1.5 (+160)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Astros at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 6, Braves 4

Money line

The Braves haven’t lost a home game Wright has started since May 26, but they probably haven’t faced a team like the mighty Astros that just plated 21 runs. The X-factor will be McCullers in his 2nd start against a Braves team that strikes out the 3rd-most per game. I like MCCULLERS OVER 5.5 STRIKEOUTS (-130) and ASTROS +105.

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Run line/Against the spread

Skip the run line because the Braves -1.5 (+160) is too risky and Astros +1.5 (-200) is too chalky. There’s a special boosted prop for 10+ runs to be scored in this game at +175. We’re projecting 10 runs here so you can go with that, but PASS on the run line.

Over/Under

We’re going with the Over here after Houston’s onslaught and because you don’t really know what you’re going to get from McCullers in his 2nd start. On the flip side, Wright has given up 2 ER or more in 5 of his last 6 starts, and he missed his last start due to arm fatigue. There is a 95% chance of rain, which compounds this take, but LEAN OVER 8.5 (-102).

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World Series Game 5: Houston Astros at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Houston Astros at Atlanta Braves Game 5 odds and lines, with expert MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves hope to close out the World Series Sunday when they host the Houston Astros in Game 5. First pitch is scheduled for 5:15 p.m. ET at Truist Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Braves Game 5 odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Atlanta leads the best-of-seven series 3-1 after Saturday’s 3-2 win in Game 4. Braves SS Dansby Swanson and pinch-hitter Jorge Soler hit back-to-back solo homers with one out in the bottom of the seventh inning Saturday night to turn a 2-1 deficit into the one-run lead that ended up being the final score.

LHP Framber Valdez is Sunday’s projected starter. In the postseason, Valdez is 1-1 with a 6.35 ERA (17 IP, 12 ER), 24 H, 6 BB and 15 K.

He took a loss in Game 1 of the World Series with a stat line of 2 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 2 K with 2 HR allowed.

Atlanta’s LHP Tucker Davidson makes his postseason debut in what will likely be a “bullpen day” for the home team.

Davidson only made four regular-season starts this year. He was 0-0 with a 3.60 ERA (20 IP, 8 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9.

Astros at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:03 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Astros -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Braves +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+133) | Braves +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Prediction

Braves 5, Astros 2

Money line (ML)

BET the BRAVES (+100) because they are a perfect 7-0 at home this postseason, 9-4 overall as home underdogs and I like how Atlanta’s lineup stacks up against Valdez.

Valdez pitches to contact and has an absurdly high 70.1% groundball rate (the MLB average groundball rate is 42.8%). He grades in the 37th percentile of K%, 11th percentile in both chase rate and ninth percentile of hard-hit rate.

But you don’t want contact against these Braves mashers. Also, Atlanta’s lineup is deeper and the National League no-DH rule obviously benefits the Braves.

GIMME the BRAVES (+100).

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a heavy “lean” to the Braves +1.5 (-165) because I’d love some insurance for our wager on Atlanta’s money line. Especially because the Braves have the best cover rate this year as home underdogs at 10-3 ATS.

However, the Braves +1.5 (-165) needs to be south of -150 for me to lay it with Atlanta’s run line.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-110) for a small wager solely to fade a market that’s hammering the Over.

According to Pregame.com, more than 90% of the action is on the Over but the total hasn’t budged since opening. In fact, several sportsbooks have made the Under more expensive despite all the pro-Over money.

Game 4 went Under with a similar pitching matchup and betting splits. Houston sent out a starter with mediocre stuff, while Atlanta had a “bullpen day” using pitchers with limited playoff experience.

Roughly 75% of the action was on the Over (according to Pregame.com), but playoff pitching prevailed Saturday. That said, I’d only “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-110) since my handicap lacks baseball-based logic.

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World Series Game 4: Houston Astros at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Houston Astros at Atlanta Braves Game 4 odds and lines, with expert MLB picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros are down 2-1 to the Atlanta Braves in the World Series and will try to even the series on the road Saturday. First pitch for Game 4 is 8:09 p.m. ET at Truist Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Braves Game 4 odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Braves took the series lead with a 2-0 shutout win in Game 3. They have alternated wins thus far in the series.

Astros RHP Zack Greinke (11-6, 4.16 ERA) makes his second start and third appearance of the postseason. He has a 7.71 ERA with 3 H and 3 BB through 2 1/3 IP.

  • Greinke has 9 career home runs, something of note because there are no designated hitters in National League ballparks.
  • He is 4-1 with a 2.75 ERA in 11 career starts against the Braves.

As of publishing, the Braves had not announced a starter for Game 4. They may go with a bullpen game, opting for an opener to pitch an inning or two, rather than a traditional starter. The Braves starters have a 3.84 ERA while their relief corps has a 3.94 ERA over 573 2/3 IP.

Astros at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Astros -112 (bet $112 to win $100) | Braves -108 (bet $108 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+145) | Braves +1.5 (-180)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Prediction

Braves 5, Astros 3

Money line (ML)

The Braves have not lost a home game in the postseason so far and are 21-6 dating back to Sept. 19.

The Astros are 47-40 on the road this year and 3-3 on the road in the postseason.

Greinke has a career 4.29 ERA in the postseason, so we should not expect him to dominate. However, the Astros have won his last four postseason starts dating back to last season.

I expect the Braves to push the Astros to the brink of elimination.

Take the BRAVES (-108).

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Braves are 39-15 ATS this year as the underdog and are 10-3 ATS in the postseason.

The Astros are 7-6 ATS in the postseason and 42-45 ATS on the road.

Take the BRAVES +1.5 (-180).

Over/Under (O/U)

Only one of the three games in the series thus far has had nine runs and none have gone Over the projected total.

Only seven of the Braves’ last 20 games have gone Over their projected total.

None of the Astros’ last four games have hit the Over, although all seven of their games prior did.

It will be close but take UNDER 8.5 (-105).

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World Series Game 3: Houston Astros at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Houston Astros at Atlanta Braves World Series Game 3 odds and lines, with expert MLB picks and predictions.

After a day off, the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves return to action for Game 3 Friday as the World Series shifts to Truist Park for the next three nights. First pitch is scheduled for 8:09 p.m. ET (on FOX). Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The best-of-seven series is tied 1-1 as the league champions split the first two games in Houston. The Braves won Tuesday’s opener 6-2 as slight +113 underdogs with Under 8.5 cashing by a hook. The Astros responded with a 7-2 victory Wednesday as -118 favorites and the O/U 9 finishing as a “push.”

Taking the hill for Game 3 will be Astros rookie RHP Luis Garcia (11-8, 3.48 ERA regular season), who will make his fourth start of this postseason. This will be the southpaw’s first time facing the Braves.

  • 2021 postseason: 1-1, 9.64 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 8 H, 7 BB, 12 K in three starts
  • Last outing: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 5-0 ALCS-clinching, Game 6 home victory vs. Boston Red Sox Oct. 22

Braves RHP Ian Anderson (9-5, 3.58 ERA regular season) will also make his fourth start of the postseason. He’ll face the Astros for the first time in his two-year career.

  • 2021 postseason: 1-0, 2.25 ERA (12 IP, 3 ER), 9 H, 4 BB, 12 K in three starts
  • Last outing: No-decision, 4 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 4-2 NLCS-clinching, Game 6 home win vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Saturday

Astros at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:20 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Astros +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Braves -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Astros +1.5 (-200) | Braves -1.5 (+160)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Prediction

Braves 5, Astros 4

Money line (ML)

ATLANTA (-120) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.

Anderson has been money at home. The Braves are 7-0 in his last seven home starts, including 3-0 in the postseason. Overall, they are 12-2 in his 14 home starts of 2021,

That’s a trend I’m more than happy to hammer, especially when the sportsbook is basically making this a pick-’em game.

As for Houston’s Garcia, his last outing was an anomaly when he shut down Boston (1 hit, 0 ER, 5 2/3 IP).

He was lit up for 5 runs in 2 2/3 innings at the Chicago White Sox in Game 3 of their ALDS, a 12-6 Astros loss, in his lone postseason road start. During the regular season, he went 5-3 with a 4.24 ERA in 15 starts away from Minute Maid Park.

In his second postseason start, a 9-5 home loss to Boston, he didn’t make it out of the second inning. He served up a first-inning grand slam and was removed after walking the leadoff hitter in the second.

I’ll take Anderson and the BRAVES (-120) for the win, please.

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS since we’re backing the Braves money line, and the Astros’ line of +1.5 (-200) is too costly.

ATS records:

  • Regular season: Astros 77-85 | Braves 78-83
  • Postseason: Astros 7-5 | Braves 9-3

Over/Under (O/U)

BET OVER 8.5 (-107) to WIN 0.4 UNITS.

O/U records:

  • Regular season: Astros 86-69-7 | Braves 74-78-9
  • Postseason: Astros 8-3-1 | Braves 5-6-1

Houston was the third-best Over team during the regular season and tied for the most Overs in the postseason.

After the Under cashed in the Astros’ postseason opener, they played 8 consecutive Overs before closing the ALCS with an Under and going 0-1-1 O/U so far in the World Series.

The Over is 43-34-8 at Truist Park this season but 2-3 in the postseason.

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