The Buffalo Bills will play the Kansas City Chiefs on the road at Arrowhead Stadium in the AFC championship game this Sunday.
These teams clash while on hot streaks. The Bills have won 12 of their last 13 meaningful games while the Chiefs have won 20 of their last 21 meaningful games. Their lone loss over that time was to the Bills.
The Bills beat them 30-21 in Week 11 this year. Quarterback Josh Allen accounted for 317 total yards and a pair of touchdowns while the team converted on 9 of 15 third-down plays in the victory.
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Patrick Mahomes threw a pair of interceptions in the loss, but the Chiefs have won the last three playoff games over the Bills and it will be tougher to force them into mistakes this time around. Kansas City are favored by 1.5 points at home.
To slay the dragon and advance to the Super Bowl, the Bills will need to execute their game plan.
Here are three keys to a Bills win vs. the Chiefs:
Execution in pass coverage
Mahomes is good enough in the pocket that he can beat you even when everyone is covered. He’s great at buying an extra second or two and finding someone uncovered down the field, and in the playoffs, tight end Travis Kelce has often been that person.
The two have incredible rapport and always find open grass when things break down. It will take multiple defenders every pass play to shut them down.
The Bills defense will need to communicate purposefully and rapidly, especially in the middle of the field, where Kelce likes to roam. If there’s one man out of place, he’ll make you pay like he has in the past.
The good news for Buffalo is the middle of their defense is much healthier this postseason compared to last. During the 2023 playoffs, they were down both linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard, this year they are both expected to be out there occupying the middle.
Keep feeding James Cook
Handing the ball to James Cook might have been included in about ten weekly “keys to victory” this year. And it continues to prove effective under offensive coordinator Joe Brady.
The Bills went up against two of the best run defenses in their first two playoff matchups and were able to control the game on the ground. The Bills handed both the Denver Broncos (wild card) and Baltimore Ravens (divisional) the most rushing yards they’ve allowed this season.
The Bills have averaged 178.5 yards on the ground this postseason. This figure would have been good for third-most in the league during the regular season.
James Cook has been an explosive running back in the playoffs this year. Only 10% of his rushes during this year’s #NFLPlayoffs have resulted in a loss or no gain. pic.twitter.com/i3w7ZF1VUu
— Built in Buffalo (@BuiltInBuffalo_) January 23, 2025
The Chiefs ranked ninth in defense rushing DVOA this year and eighth in rushing yards allowed per game. They’ve been a decent group, but haven’t stuffed the run like Baltimore or Denver.
Igniting Cook and the rushing game will open things up for the Bills’ passing game, especially in the middle of the field where the Chiefs have allowed the most yards to tight ends in the NFL this year (1,191).
Win matchups on the defensive line
Getting to Mahomes and taking him down for a sack is easier said than done. But, getting consistent pressure could force errant passes or throwaways, which can make a big difference in the playoffs.
While there has been a lot of talk about the Chiefs rotating pieces on the offensive line this year and that they’ve struggled at times, Mahomes has a way of masking their offensive line’s deficiencies. They rank 16th in the NFL in sacks allowed this year (41), and if they had someone who couldn’t manipulate the pocket or make off-script plays, they’d be much higher on the list.
The Bills had 224 total pressures in the regular season, good for eighth in the NFL. They’ll need to mix things up at times by showing different fronts and blitzes, but the Bills also have some guys who can win their one-on-one matchup.
Von Miller, Greg Rousseau, Ed Oliver, AJ Epenesa, and others will need to capitalize on chances to get after Mahomes Sunday.
If they can force the Chiefs into unfavorable down-and-distances and make Mahomes uncomfortable in the pocket during those plays, it would go a long way toward their chances at making the Super Bowl.
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