Tag: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres odds predictions pick betting line spread

The San Diego Padres (2-0) host the Arizona Diamondbacks (0-2) Saturday at 8:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Diego scored one run in both the 6th and 7th innings on Opening Day to take the first game against Arizona and held off the Diamondbacks for a 4-2 win Friday.

Season series: Padres 2-0.

LHP Caleb Smith makes his 2021 debut Saturday against the Padres. The Diamondbacks acquired Smith from the Miami Marlins midseason last year.

Smith was 0-0 with a 2.57 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 and 7.7 BB/9 in 14 IP over 5 appearances (4 starts) in 2020.

• Career vs. Padres: 2-1 with a 2.01 ERA (22 1/3 IP, 16 H, 5 ER, 24 K, 7 BB) in 4 starts.
• 2021 Spring Training: 1-3 with an 8.57 ERA (21 IP, 20 ER, 26 H, 25 K, 11 BB) in 6 starts.

RHP Joe Musgrove takes the mound for his San Diego debut Saturday. While playing for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2020, Musgrove was 1-5 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 12.5 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 39 2/3 IP across 8 starts.

• Career vs. Diamondbacks: 1-1 with a 3.70 ERA (24 1/3 IP, 19 H, 10 ER, 18 K, 7 BB) in 5 appearances and 4 starts.
• 2021 Spring Training: 0-0 with a 3.50 ERA (18 IP, 7 ER, 15 H, 17 K, 7 BB) in 5 starts.

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Diamondbacks at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:10 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Diamondbacks +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Padres -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
• Against the spread/ATS: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-110) | Padres -1.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Padres 9, Diamondbacks 2

Money line (ML)

PASS because San Diego should win handily here and the only way I’d bet Padres (-200) is if they were paired with another money line favorite to get at least an even-money payout.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

There could be some value with the PADRES -1.5 (-110) because Smith’s low ERA from last season is a little misleading.

A typical sign of pitcher regression from one season to the next is if the pitcher’s FIP is way higher than his ERA. In this case, Smith had a 2.57 ERA and a 6.41 FIP in 2020.

The opposite can be said about Musgrove who was rescued from the dumpster-fire Pittsburgh organization this offseason.

Musgrove’s win-loss record was bad because the Pirates were bad, but his FIP was lower than his ERA (a sign of possible progression heading into the following year) and his exit velocity was 4.4 mph below the MLB average.

Also, Musgrove has to be pumped to finally be on a ballclub that could compete for a pennant and I think his teammates will welcome him with a victory.

GIMME PADRES -1.5 (-110) for 1.25 units.

Over/Under (O/U)

If I had faith in both lineups scoring runs, I’d make a heavier bet on the Over in this spot and San Diego may need to do all the scoring tonight.

Smith has a limited pitch arsenal—mostly throwing the fastball and slider—and San Diego’s lineup is pretty good vs. sliders but will blast off on fastballs.

Since I’m high on Musgrove’s short-term future with the Padres, I can only “LEAN” OVER 8.5 (-110) for a half-unit.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks (0-1) play the San Diego Padres (1-0) Friday at 10:10 p.m. ET at Petco Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Diamondbacks climbed back from five runs down to take the lead in the top of the 5th in Thursday’s season-opener but San Diego scored once in the 6th and again in the 7th to win Game 1 of the series 8-7.

Season series: Padres 1-0.

RHP Merrill Kelly starts Friday for the Diamondbacks. Kelly was 3-2 with a 2.59 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 over 31 1/3 IP spanning 5 starts in 2020.

• 2020 vs. Padres: 2-0 with a 0.71 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 11 K, 2 BB) in 2 starts.
• 2021 Spring Training: 0-2 with a 5.30 ERA (18 2/3 IP, 11 ER, 17 K, 6 BB) in 5 starts.

LHP Blake Snell makes his Padres debut tonight after spending the first five seasons of his career with the Tampa Bay Rays. He won the AL Cy Young in 2018 while winning 21 games.

Snell was 4-2 last year with a 3.24 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 11.3 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 50 IP across 11 starts.

• 2021 Spring Training: 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA (14 1/3 IP, 13 K, 4 BB) across 5 starts.

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Diamondbacks at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:35 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Diamondbacks +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Padres -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
• Against the spread/ATS: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-115) | Padres -1.5 (-105)
• Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Diamondbacks 4, Padres 2

Money line (ML)

PASS with a “LEAN” toward the Diamondbacks (+180) because Kelly has been fantastic in his two years in MLB against the Padres and there’s a lot more value in the underdog than the favorite.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET DIAMONDBACKS +1.5 (-115) for a half-unit because each of their previous three games against the Padres were decided by only one run and Arizona is 4-1 ATS vs. San Diego in the last five meetings.

Also, this is a “Pros vs. Joes” game in the betting market; according to Pregame.com, more than 70% of the money is on Arizona’s run line while 88% of the tickets are on San Diego’s run line.

Typically, the money column is considered the “sharp” side of the market so my preference is to follow the money and fade the crowd of people.

Over/Under (O/U)

TAKE UNDER 8 (-105) for a half-unit because while Kelly has been awesome against San Diego, the Diamondbacks hitters were terrible against left-handed pitching last season.

Arizona was bottom-5 in the Majors in 2020 vs. left-handed pitching in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, and strikeouts per walk rate.

Snell is a legit Ace in the prime of his career, motivated after last year’s World Series loss and had a dominant Spring Training. Kelly is also 4-1 with a 1.59 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 28 1/3 innings pitched in his last five starts against San Diego.

Finally, the Diamondbacks and Padres played to the Under in seven of their last 10 meetings, which makes UNDER 7.5 (+110) on the alternate total intriguing.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks meet the San Diego Padres in the 2021 season opener Thursday at 4:10 p.m. ET at Petco Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Madison Bumgarner is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks. He was 1-4 with a 6.48 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 6.48 K/9 and 2.81 BB/9 over 41 2/3 IP spanning nine starts in 2020. Last season, MadBum was hammered by the Padres, going 0-2 with a 10.57 ERA in two starts while serving up four home runs across just 7 2/3 combined innings.

RHP Yu Darvish is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres. He was 8-3 with a 2.01 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 11.01 K/9 and 1.66 BB/9 over 76 IP and 12 starts in 2020 for the Chicago Cubs. Darvish will be facing the D-Backs for the first time since April 27, 2019, when he allowed one earned run on 2 hits and 4 walks, with 8 strikeouts across six innings in a win for the Cubs.

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Diamondbacks at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:45 a.m. ET.

• Money line: Diamondbacks +210 (bet $100 to win $210) | Padres -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
• Against the spread/ATS: Diamondbacks +1.5 (+105) | Padres -1.5 (-125)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Padres 7, Diamondbacks 3

Money line (ML)

The Padres (-250) will cost you two and a half times your potential return, and that’s not a good long-term betting strategy, especially in MLB.

Try and limit yourself to -175 or -180, and make few exceptions throughout the season. Over the long term you’ll have a lot fewer peaks and valleys.

PASS.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The PADRES -1.5 (-125) are a much better value on the run line. San Diego was in an arms race, literally, with the Los Angeles Dodgers during the offseason, and it’s going to be a fun race to watch unfold this season.

The Diamondbacks cannot be trusted, especially with Bumgarner on the bump. He lost a lot of velocity last season, and he looked like he was throwing batting practice more often than not. The Padres treated him especially poorly, rocketing four balls into the seats last season in just two starts.

Arizona is also just 2-6 in their past eight games at Petco.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 8.5 (-110) is a good play, as the Padres offense should be able to throw up some big numbers against Bumgarner.

The same cannot be said for the Diamondbacks against Darvish, but the Padres should put up enough offense to inch the total Over.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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