The San Diego Padres (2-0) host the Arizona Diamondbacks (0-2) Saturday at 8:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Diego scored one run in both the 6th and 7th innings on Opening Day to take the first game against Arizona and held off the Diamondbacks for a 4-2 win Friday.
Season series: Padres 2-0.
LHP Caleb Smith makes his 2021 debut Saturday against the Padres. The Diamondbacks acquired Smith from the Miami Marlins midseason last year.
Smith was 0-0 with a 2.57 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 and 7.7 BB/9 in 14 IP over 5 appearances (4 starts) in 2020.
- Career vs. Padres: 2-1 with a 2.01 ERA (22 1/3 IP, 16 H, 5 ER, 24 K, 7 BB) in 4 starts.
- 2021 Spring Training: 1-3 with an 8.57 ERA (21 IP, 20 ER, 26 H, 25 K, 11 BB) in 6 starts.
RHP Joe Musgrove takes the mound for his San Diego debut Saturday. While playing for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2020, Musgrove was 1-5 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 12.5 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 39 2/3 IP across 8 starts.
- Career vs. Diamondbacks: 1-1 with a 3.70 ERA (24 1/3 IP, 19 H, 10 ER, 18 K, 7 BB) in 5 appearances and 4 starts.
- 2021 Spring Training: 0-0 with a 3.50 ERA (18 IP, 7 ER, 15 H, 17 K, 7 BB) in 5 starts.
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Diamondbacks at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:10 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Diamondbacks +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Padres -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-110) | Padres -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Padres 9, Diamondbacks 2
Money line (ML)
PASS because San Diego should win handily here and the only way I’d bet Padres (-200) is if they were paired with another money line favorite to get at least an even-money payout.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
There could be some value with the PADRES -1.5 (-110) because Smith’s low ERA from last season is a little misleading.
A typical sign of pitcher regression from one season to the next is if the pitcher’s FIP is way higher than his ERA. In this case, Smith had a 2.57 ERA and a 6.41 FIP in 2020.
The opposite can be said about Musgrove who was rescued from the dumpster-fire Pittsburgh organization this offseason.
Musgrove’s win-loss record was bad because the Pirates were bad, but his FIP was lower than his ERA (a sign of possible progression heading into the following year) and his exit velocity was 4.4 mph below the MLB average.
Also, Musgrove has to be pumped to finally be on a ballclub that could compete for a pennant and I think his teammates will welcome him with a victory.
GIMME PADRES -1.5 (-110) for 1.25 units.
Over/Under (O/U)
If I had faith in both lineups scoring runs, I’d make a heavier bet on the Over in this spot and San Diego may need to do all the scoring tonight.
Smith has a limited pitch arsenal—mostly throwing the fastball and slider—and San Diego’s lineup is pretty good vs. sliders but will blast off on fastballs.
Since I’m high on Musgrove’s short-term future with the Padres, I can only “LEAN” OVER 8.5 (-110) for a half-unit.
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