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The Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks play Game 5 of the best-of-7 National League Championship Series Saturday. First pitch from Chase Field is scheduled for 8:07 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
NLCS: Tied 2-2
The Phillies headed to the bottom of the 8th inning with a 5-2 lead in Game 4. Philadelphia was looking to bounce back after blowing a 1-0 lead in the bottom of the 7th inning in Game 3. It was worse Friday. Much worse.
Veteran RHP Craig Kimbrel served up a 2-run HR to Diamondbacks PH Alek Thomas in the bottom of the 8th, and C Gabriel Moreno delivered a go-ahead single off of reliever LHP Jose Alvarado, completing the comeback.
Not only did Thomas’ homer ruin the night for Phillies (+116) side bettors, but Under (9) bettors saw a small cushion, with 7 runs on the board heading to the bottom of the 8th, turn into a losing ticket.
Phillies at Diamondbacks projected starters
RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Zac Gallen
Wheeler was 13-6 with a 3.61 ERA in 32 regular-season starts. He had a 1.08 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 192 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 5-3 home win vs. Diamondbacks in Game 1 on Monday
- 2023 road splits (regular season): 8-4, 3.16 ERA (102 2/3 IP, 36 ER), 7 HR in 17 starts
- Making his 10th career postseason start and 10th overall appearance
Gallen made 34 starts in the regular season, going 17-9 with a 3.47 ERA. He had a 1.12 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 210 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 4 K in Monday’s 5-3 loss at Phillies
- 2023 home splits (regular season): 12-3, 2.47 ERA (102 IP, 28 ER), 7 HR in 16 starts
- Making his 4th career postseason start and 4th overall appearance
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Phillies at Diamondbacks odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:59 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Diamondbacks +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+125) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -104 | U: -118)
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Phillies at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Diamondbacks 4, Phillies 3
Moneyline
The Phillies (-130) have gotten off to great starts in Phoenix, but the DIAMONDBACKS (+110) are the play in Game 5, because they’ve been finishing.
It might not take a comeback victory on Saturday. Gallen was the team’s ace this season, posting tremendous numbers at home with a 12-3 record and 2.47 ERA.
Look for Arizona to take its first series lead, pushing Philadelphia to the brink of elimination with a third consecutive home win.
Run line/Against the spread
Playing the DIAMONDBACKS +1.5 (-150) isn’t priced out of line if you’d like a little insurance and just can’t trust Arizona at home straight up for some reason.
The team did lose Gallen’s first in this series in Philadelphia, but again, he has been money at home.
Over/Under
The UNDER 8 (-118) is the lean, with a slight twist.
The Phillies have scored 15 total runs in the first 6 innings in the 4 games combined, but just 6 total runs in the final 3 frames. As such, playing OVER 3.5 RUNS – 1ST 5 INNINGS (-128) is actually a recommended play, before shifting gears and hoping to hang on for the Under.
The Under is 1-1 in Gallen’s 2 postseason starts. While the Over is 2-1 in Wheeler’s 3 postseason starts, while the Under is 6-3-1 in his past 10 starts overall.
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