Week 13 EPA Power Rankings: Cowboys remain division favorites

Advanced stats love the Cowboys offense, but it’s not enough to keep them in the top tier of the NFL heading into Week 13

The Cowboys attempt to slay the behemoth that is the 2019 New England Patriots defense was denied by miserable weather, but they’re still hanging around the top teams in the league in many advanced statistical categories.

Even after a dismal 9-point day in Foxborough, the offense remains better than every team not named the Baltimore Ravens in the NFL by most expected points models.

Expected Points, the foundation of many analytical arguments, uses data from previous NFL seasons to determine how many points a team is likely to come away with on a given play based on down, distance, time remaining, and field position. The difference in expected points at the start of a play and expected points at the end is referred to as expected points added, or EPA.

A play with a positive EPA means it put the offense in a better position to score, while negative EPA implies the offense is in a worse position.

This week, the power ranks look a bit different than previous iterations because this time they include opponent adjustments. We all know the Patriots have an elite defense, but it’s worth factoring in the fact that they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL up to this point in the season. When we factor these in, a new AFC team takes over the top spot, while another gets nothing but a precipitous fall.

For the first time since Week 2, New England falls out of the number one spot, in both raw EPA rank and opponent adjusted rank. If you squint hard enough (and ignore San Francisco and Baltimore’s huge days) you can see it as a consolation prize for the Cowboys. At least they knocked the top team down a peg.

The Ravens, the analytical darlings of the NFL, have taken over as the best team in the league by EPA. They’ve now defeated the two reigning conference champions by a combined score of 82-26. If you’ve watched any of their past five games, you don’t need more advanced stats to tell you how good they are. Just know that the stats do back it up.

The Chiefs leap-frogged over Dallas and Minnesota after applying opponent adjustments. Their four losses have all come against teams ranked in the top half of the league by adjusted EPA differential. Patrick Mahomes and the passing offense that lit the world on fire in 2018 has shown very little regression and still ranks third in the NFL behind Baltimore and Dallas.

If we exclude scrambles, the best passing offense in the league by total EPA is the Dallas Cowboys. No player in football has put his team in better position to score this season than Dak Prescott. Even after a poor game in even poorer weather, Prescott and the Cowboys remain an elite passing attack in 2019.

The biggest loser in these new and improved ranks is the Buffalo Bills. The Bills, ranked 10th last week by raw EPA differential, fell all the way to 22nd this week with opponent adjustments added. They would have been 26th had they not come away with a double-digit victory over Denver. While Buffalo still holds an 8-3 record and a two game lead in the wild card race, they’re not yet a shoe-in for the playoffs. After the Thanksgiving game against Dallas, they’ll face Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and New England, the toughest four game stretch of their season by far.

The teams with the biggest bumps in EPA differential by adding opponent adjustments are the Arizona Cardinals and the Cleveland Browns. The Cardinals two tight games against San Francisco were undoubtedly helpful, while the Browns got a big boost from beating the Ravens.

Let’s dig a bit deeper into how offenses are faring after Week 12 by splitting their total EPA into passing and rushing EPA.

Arizona sticks out as the second best rushing team by EPA, but don’t let it get lost that this team is also above average in the passing game, if only just barely. On the other side, the Steelers jump out as one of the worst offenses in the NFL in both passing and rushing. That Pittsburgh defense deserves a ton of credit for keeping their mediocre offense in the playoff hunt.

Baltimore is playing another sport (QB scrambles are included in dropback EPA here), but Dallas comes real close to catching their passing production while also maintaining above average rushing success. They may only have a one-game lead in the division, but the reason they are still heavily favored (65% vs Philadelphia’s 35% chances to win NFC East) is quite visible here. They’re the class of the NFC East.

The Cowboys will look to prove that they belong in the discussion of NFC contenders against the perhaps overrated, yet still 8-3 Bills on Thursday. Philadelphia gets the first of an extremely soft final five games when they head to Miami on Sunday, making a Dallas win all the more important in this close divisional race.

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NFC West standings: 49ers still in control after big win

The 49ers now are 10-1 but the Seahawks are right on their tail at 9-2.

Week 12 in the NFL is in the books after a Monday night blowout. In the NFC West, nothing changed. The San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks each won. The Los Angeles Rams lost and the Cardinals were on their bye.

How do the standings look in the division after Week 12?

San Francisco 49ers. 10-1
Seattle Seahawks, 9-2
Los Angeles Rams, 6-5
Arizona Cardinals, 3-7-1

The 49ers began the stretch of their schedule against tough teams. Test No. 1 was no big deal. They completely dominated the Green Bay Packers in a 37-8 win. The defense was tremendous again, sacking Aaron Rodgers five times and limiting him to only 104 passing yards.

The Seahawks did what they apparently do best. They won a close game, beating the Philadelphia Eagles on the road 17-9. Rashaad Penny had a 58-yard touchdown run and 129 total rushing yards, and the Seattle defense took the ball away from the Eagles five times.

The Rams were embarrassed on Monday night. They could not do anything offensively and allowed the Baltimore Ravens to score touchdowns on their first six possessions in a 45-6 loss. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson threw five touchdown passes.

The Cardinals did not play, as they were on their bye.

What is up next for the division in Week 13?

The 49ers now have to take on the 9-2 Ravens on the road in what looks like a potential Super Bowl preview.

The Seahawks will play Monday night at home against the 8-3 Minnesota Vikings. Both teams would be the NFC wild card teams if the season ended today.

The Cardinals and the Rams will face one another for the first time this season and for the first of two December matchups. The Cardinals, despite four consecutive losses, feel like they are trending upward while the Rams seem to be in a rut.

Listen to the latest from Cards Wire’s Jess Root on his podcast, Rise Up, See Red. Subscribe on Apple podcasts or Stitcher Radio.

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4 critical areas of improvement the Cardinals need in final 5 games

The need fewer penalties, more touchdowns in the red zone and better defense on third down and against the pass.

The Arizona Cardinals enter the final stretch of the season with five games in December. Kliff Kingsbury has declared the final stretch is a new season. They want to improve and be better so they can finish the season strong.

The offense is in good shape. The running game has been effective and quarterback Kyler Murray has been very good. Even the run defense has improved over the season.

But what are the specific areas where the Cardinals need to see improvement between now and the end of the season?

Cutting down on penalties

According to FootballDB.com, the Cardinals are tied with the Cleveland Browns for the most penalties in the NFL with 94. That is an average of nearly nine per game.

Penalties are the result of mental mistakes and poor technique. This has to get better. It gives away yardage.

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Cardinals’ December to be completely new season for team

“We want to treat it like its own season,” said Kliff Kingsbury Monday. “Nothing that’s happened before this really matters.”

The Arizona Cardinals return to work after their latest bye week in more than two decades. They have five games remaining after a 3-7-1 start to the season.

Now, with five games in December, the Cardinals are treating it like something new.

“We want to treat it like its own season,” head coach Kliff Kingsbury told reporters Monday. “Nothing that’s happened before this really matters.”

Their season has been streaky. They tied in Week 1, lost three in a row, won three in a row and now are on a four-game losing streak.

They are not mathematically eliminated from playoff contention but the postseason is not really in their sights. Winning all five of their remaining games would result in a 8-7-1 record, which still likely will not be enough for the playoffs in the NFC.

So what is the goal in this final “season?”

“Let’s execute at a high level and play our best football these last five,” Kingsbury said. “We have three at home in a row, which is a great opportunity to get some momentum going and try to finish strong.”

They seem to have their offense figured out. Even with issues on third down and in the red zone, they have scored at least 25 points in six of their last seven games. There is progress to be made on defense, though.

Finishing the first year of a new coaching staff strong is something that the Cardinals have done in the past, leading to the postseason in Year 2. In 2013, under Bruce Arians, they won three of their final four games and seven of their final nine games to finish 10-6. They made the postseason the next year after a 9-1 start.

In Ken Whisenhunt’s first year as coach in 2007, the Cardinals won their final two games and three of their last five to finish 8-8 after a 3-5 start. They went to the Super Bowl the next season.

Seeing progress and finishing strong isn’t about this year. It is about building for next year. When players see successful results of their work at the end of a season, buying in for the offseason and following year is easy.

Listen to the latest from Cards Wire’s Jess Root on his podcast, Rise Up, See Red. Subscribe on Apple podcasts or Stitcher Radio.

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RB Chase Edmonds expected to play for Cardinals vs. Rams

He missed three games with a hamstring injury.

The Arizona Cardinals plan on having a completely healthy running back room in Week 13. After having at least one injured running back for each of the last five games, they should have David Johnson, Chase Edmonds and Kenyan Drake all healthy and ready to suit up when they take the field at home against the Los Angeles Rams.

Edmonds suffered a hamstring against the New Orleans Saints and missed three games. He is set to return this weekend, according to head coach Kliff Kingsbury.

He was back at practice on Monday.

“He looked good today,” Kingsbury told reporters Monday. “He feels good. He has worked really hard to be back.”

He expects Edmonds to play. “Hopefully we can get him back going.”

Edmonds saw his role increase week by week earlier in the season and then rushed for 126 yards and three touchdowns against the New York Giants when David Johnson’s ankle bothered him.

He has four rushing touchdowns this season, all at least 20 yards in length.

The next question for the team is how they will utilize all three backs or whether they will be able to use all three. “It’s a good problem to have, to have three very talented running backs,” said Kingsbury.

Edmonds isn’t worried. If the Cardinals can get the number of snaps up to where they would like, he believes there is playing time for all three.

If not, he believes it will work.

“It’ll be fine, man,” he said, according to the team site’s Kyle Odegard.
“We’re all talented. We’re all selfless. It’s not going to be a problem at all.”

Listen to the latest from Cards Wire’s Jess Root on his podcast, Rise Up, See Red. Subscribe on Apple podcasts or Stitcher Radio.

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Breaking down the remaining games on the Cardinals’ schedule

The Cardinals play five games in December. What does each opponent look like right now?

The Arizona Cardinals have finished their bye week and have five games remaining on their schedule. They play their next three games at home and then are on the road in Seattle and Los Angeles for the final two games of the season.

They play the L.A. Rams next and then again last.

Let’s look at their opponents coming up.

Week 13, Week 17: Los Angeles Rams

Record: 6-4 (entering Week 12)

The Rams are a balanced 3-2 at home and 3-2 on the road. They are 3-2 in their last five games. However, they are 0-2 in the division.

They are 13th in the league in total offense and 10th in the league in scoring, averaging 24.3 points per game.

They are seventh in passing offense and 21st in rushing.

Defensively, they are 11th in yards and 11th in points allowed, giving up 19.8 points per game. They are 16th in passing defense and fourth in rush defense.

Leading passer: Jared Goff — 2,783 yards, 11 TDs, 10 INTs

Leading rusher: Todd Gurley — 525 yards, 4.1 YPC, seven touchdowns

Leading receiver: Cooper Kupp — 61 catches for 845 yards, five touchdowns

Sack leaders: Aaron Donald (8), Clay Matthews (7)

Both games are winnable. A split is a reasonable expectation. Especially coming off the bye, they hopefully win the game at home.

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Andy Lee, Zane Gonzalez both warrant Pro Bowl consideration

Gonzalez has made more field goals than anyone else in the league.

The Arizona Cardinals have not had a great season but do have some players who deserve recognition for their fine seasons. Defensively, there are three players who should get Pro Bowl consideration, even when the defensive unit, on the whole, is bad.

Two others also should be in the mix — kicker Zane Gonzalez and punter Andy Lee.

Gonzalez leads the NFL with 26 made field goals. He has hit 26-of-29, including 2-for-2 from 50 yards and beyond.

Lee is second in the NFL with a 48.8-yard punting average. He is eighth in net average.

If one of the two were more deserving, it would have to be Gonzalez. He has been fantastic. Aside from two missed field goals when Andy Lee was hurt, he has been nearly automatic. He has looked like the kicker he was at Arizona State when he won the Lou Groza award as the best kicker in the country.

Without many wins, they likely won’t get the attention they might merit, but they certainly are worthy of a Pro Bow nod.

Listen to the latest from Cards Wire’s Jess Root on his podcast, Rise Up, See Red. Subscribe on Apple podcasts or Stitcher Radio.

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NFL Draft 2020: Here are the top 12 candidates for the No. 1 pick as Week 12 concludes

The Bengals solidified their hold on the first spot in the 2020 NFL Draft with another loss.

Teams are going to have a hard time dislodging the Cincinnati Bengals from the top spot in the 2020 NFL Draft. They are woeful and winless heading into the final five games of the season. Could another Ohio team finish 0-16 in NFL history? Seems so.

12. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars are a crisp 4-7 and Doug Marrone might want to start looking for a realtor. Rutgers, by the way, is looking for a head coach who has worked in the Northeast. This is one of the stranger stats and only the Jags could accomplish it. Derrick Henry has rushed for 101 yards in his last two games at Jax. In his last two games against the Jaguars in Tennessee, the former Heisman winner has run for 397 yards and six touchdowns.

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Chandler Jones should be NFL Defensive Player of the Year

While the Cardinals’ season has gone quite as they had hoped, one of their best in Chandler Jones should be given a great honor for his stellar play in every game.

The Arizona Cardinals have had a very up-and-down season so far. There have been moments of great promise for the future paired with equally concerning ones. Nevertheless, one constant has remained through all 12 games — the play of outside linebacker Chandler Jones.

Since Jones’ first season with the Arizona Cardinals in 2016, no player has had more sacks. Honestly, it really isn’t close. Jones has registered 52.5 QB takedowns, the next closest being Aaron Donald with 45. Previous Defensive Player of the Year winners in Donald and Bears edge rusher Khalil Mack just don’t have the stats that Chandler Jones has.

With that said, the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year is for 2019 only. So for this award, previous stats don’t matter (although it gives a perspective on the kind of player Jones has been for years).

Let’s take a look at 2019, then. Oh, Chandler Jones is leading the league in sacks again.

Jones sits atop the quarterback takedown throne with 12.5 sacks registered on the year. Beneath him is Tampa Bay Buccaneers edge rusher Shaquil Barrett, who started off the year red-hot with nine sacks in four games. Since then, he’s cooled down a good amount. Jones looks like he’s headed for another season sack crown.

So, who else is in contention for the league’s best defender? Patriots corner Stephon Gilmore is having another stellar year and could take home the award. However, there’s another ballhawk defensive back that has been incredible down the stretch. Steelers safety Minkah Fitzpatrick seemingly won games for Pittsburgh on his own. Since being dealt from Miami to the Black and Gold, Fitzpatrick has five interceptions, two forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries, and one touchdown. He would certainly be another great choice for defensive player of the year.

In the past few years, it seems like the league’s best defender has been either Aaron Donald or Khalil Mack. While both have been very good for their respective teams, neither has had their typical best-defensive-player caliber season. Donald has been great, but hasn’t quite been the force he was last year. On the other hand, Mack only has 5.5 sacks on the year. Both of these players are still great, but their stats just don’t give way to another DPOY award.

Cardinals DC Vance Joseph’s defense includes a lot of soft zone coverage that allows for quick ball release by opposing quarterbacks, targeting the short and intermediate passing game. This obviously makes it more difficult for edge rushers to reach the quarterback, yet it hasn’t slowed down Jones one bit. As the young Cardinals secondary gets more playing time together, Jones’ numbers will only go up.

If Chandler Jones registers one sack in each of his last five games, he will finish the 2019 season with 17.5 sacks. If he has multiple sacks in at least two of those games, he would be close to 20 sacks. That is absolutely absurd. Jones has to be excited for this opportunity, especially considering the struggling Browns offensive line and the Rams(2x) coming up on the schedule.

Jones’s statistics certainly warrant the Defensive Player of the Year title, but the award has typically gone to a member of a playoff team. The Cardinals(3-7-1) have made great progress towards 2020 and beyond, but they won’t be in the postseason this year. Still, Chandler’s numbers should outweigh the record of the team.

As of November 24th, 2019, there has not been a better defensive player in the NFL than Chandler Jones of the Arizona Cardinals.

Listen to the latest from Cards Wire’s Jess Root on his podcast, Rise Up, See Red. Subscribe on Apple podcasts or Stitcher Radio.

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Cardinals will figure into playoff races even when they aren’t in playoff picture

Four of their five games are against teams with real playoff aspirations.

The Arizona Cardinals, sitting at 3-7-1 on their bye week, are not really in any sort of playoff scenario, especially since they are in last place of the NFC West. However, while they are not in the playoff hunt themselves, they potentially can play a role in both the NFC and AFC playoff picture.

Why?

Four of their five final games are against teams firmly in their playoff race.

They play the 6-4 Los Angeles Rams twice. They play the 5-5 Pittsburgh Steelers. They will face the 8-2 Seattle Seahawks. Their other opponent, the Cleveland Browns, who are 4-6, are in the mix in the AFC but are longshots at this point.

The Rams are trying to stay in the playoff race, as are the Steelers. The Seahawks are trying to win the division. Any Cardinals win will hurt those team’s chances.

In fact, they are considered a top spoiler by Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar.

Even if the Cardinals won all five of their remaining games, they would finish 8-7-1 and still wouldn’t make the postseason. But they could keep an opponent out or from winning the division.

Combine that with building momentum for 2020 and that is something to cheer for.

Listen to the latest from Cards Wire’s Jess Root on his podcast, Rise Up, See Red. Subscribe on Apple podcasts or Stitcher Radio.

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