One key to victory for every conference championship team

With just four teams remaining, here’s one thing each of these teams must do if they want to make it to Super Bowl LIV.

Losing in any elimination game gives you the entire offseason to think about the things you should have done. For the Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, and Green Bay Packers, there’s still that one last hope for the Super Bowl that no other team still has this season. The AFC and NFC Championship game entrants have faced off in the regular season already.

In Week 10, the Titans came back from a 10-0 Chiefs lead, and Patrick Mahomes’ three-touchdown performance, to beat Kansas City 35-32. Ryan Tannehill, still in his first few games as Marcus Mariota’s replacement, threw a 23-yard touchdown pass to receiver Adam Humphries with 29 seconds left in regulation, and Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker missed a potential game-tying 52-yard field goal at the end of regulation. At least the Chiefs can say they were in that game.

The Packers, not so much. In Week 12, the 49ers beat the daylights out of Green Bay, 37-8. Aaron Rodgers averaged 3.15 yards per completion when he was able to throw the ball, the Packers went 1-for-15 on third down, and a defense that had been relatively on point allowed Jimmy Garoppolo to look like Joe Montana.

Still, the good news for both losing teams in this instance is that neither the Chiefs nor the Packers have lost a single game since those particular defeats. Mahomes seems to have recovered from his in-season injuries, Green Bay’s passing offense is more explosive, Kansas City’s defense is far better than it used to be, and the Packers’ coverage units seem to have recovered from what 49ers head coach and play-designer Kyle Shanahan did to them.

That said, the Titans are as in-tune as any remaining team on both sides of the ball, and with the postseason return of edge-rusher Dee Ford, linebacker Kwon Alexander, and safety Jaquiski Tartt, San Francisco’s defense has recovered nicely from a late-season swoon.

So, if we take the conference title games as new entities (as we should) while attempting to learn from the past, here’s one thing each of the remaining teams should do if they want to make it to Super Bowl LIV.

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WATCH: Arik Armstead hits Kirk Cousins for first sack of postseason

The 49ers defense opened a big series vs. the Vikings with an Arik Armstead sack.

The 49ers defense got a big stop after their offense stalled out near midfield. The Vikings dropped quarterback Kirk Cousins back on first down and Arik Armstead blew through the right side of the line for a sack and an eight-yard loss.

TIME TO EAT 🍴@arikarmstead with the sack for a loss of 8 yards.#BeLegendary pic.twitter.com/kAXyECrT7O

— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) January 11, 2020

That was Armstead’s first sack since he had two in Week 12 vs. the Packers. The Vikings never got out from behind the sticks and punted.

49ers vs. Vikings injury report: Key 49ers replacements for divisional playoffs

The 49ers may need help from the lower part of their depth chart if Dee Ford can’t play vs. the Vikings in the divisional playoffs.

Names on the 49ers’ injury report were already scarce prior to their divisional playoff matchup with the Minnesota Vikings. Kentavius Street and Dee Ford were the only names on the report, and they were both listed as ‘questionable.’

Street on Friday went on Injured Reserve to make room on the roster for Kwon Alexander to return from IR. That leaves Ford as the only injured player for the 49ers going into Saturday afternoon.

He’s been dealing with a hamstring injury since Week 11. He tried returning in Week 14, but re-aggravated the same hamstring and missed the rest of the year. Ford was limited in practice all week leading up to the divisional round.

If Ford can’t play, it’ll mean more snaps on the edge for Arik Armstead, and additional time for veteran Anthony Zettel.

Losing Ford for a postseason game would be devastating for a 49ers pass rush that was aiming to reach the dominant form it found early in the year when it averaged 4.0 sacks per game over the first 12 weeks. He’s not great at setting the edge against the run, so he likely would’ve been limited to work in passing situations against Minnesota, but he’s so impactful as a pass rusher that even having him in limited snaps would’ve given the defensive front a huge advantage.

Putting Armstead on the edge isn’t unordinary for the 49ers. He’s dominant as a run defender outside and would’ve likely seen a lot of snaps at that spot against a run-heavy team like Minnesota. Whether he can generate pass rush off the edge is a different story. He’s fine getting after the quarterback off the edge. After all, he led the team with a career-high 10.0 sacks this season. Armstead is dominant though when he can kick inside and work off the attention the edge rush receives.

That’s why Zettel is going to be the X-factor. Any production the 49ers can get out of the late-season free-agent signee is a bonus. Zettel was signed before the 49ers’ Week 17 showdown with the Seahawks. He played 29 snaps in that game without a ton of productivity.

All he has to do is not be a liability and chew up some snaps on the edge to help spell Armstead and Nick Bosa. If he can play between 25 and 30 snaps without any huge mistakes, he’ll be a passable replacement for Ford on the edge.

49ers defensive depth will be challenged vs. Falcons

The 49ers injury situation on defense will force a slew of reserves into starting roles Sunday.

The 49ers defense had their worst game of the season last week when they allowed 46 points and 465 yards to the Saints. The Falcons’ offense can be explosive, but this season they haven’t reached their potential thanks to inexperience and injuries at key spots. The defense could have some issues with the amount of injuries they’re dealing with as well.

Here are the six players to watch:

CB Emmanuel Moseley

With Richard Sherman out on Sunday, Moseley will step back into a starting role. He’ll face a tough challenge in coverage when he gets lined up against Julio Jones. The All-Pro receiver has dominated this season despite the offense falling apart around him. He has 69 receptions for 1,016 yards and four touchdown receptions. Moseley had success earlier in the season when taking over for Ahkello Witherspoon, but he never had to deal with a receiver the quality of Jones. How Moseley fares back in the starting lineup will play a big role in how well the 49ers’ defense adapts.

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Terron Armstead and Manti Te’o active for Saints vs. 49ers

The New Orleans Saints will start Terron Armstead at left tackle against the San Francisco 49ers, leaving him off of their inactive report.

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The New Orleans Saints will welcome all-star left tackle Terron Armstead back into the lineup during Sunday’s game with the San Francisco 49ers; this comes after he was left off of the Saints inactive report, signalling his return. Armstead had missed the last two games with a high-ankle sprain but is gutting through it to take his spot along the New Orleans offense line.

Four Saints players were ruled out for this kickoff on Friday’s final injury report, including two starting linebackers (Kiko Alonso and A.J. Klein) as well as the player who normally lines up next to Armstead at left guard (Andrus Peat). The Saints will also be without fullback Zach Line again as he continues to recover from a knee injury. Veteran linebacker Manti Te’o will play his first game in a year since being signed off the street on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, San Francisco is getting healthier. They’re adding leading rusher Matt Breida to a loaded running back corps after he missed time with an injury, while starting safety Jaquiski Tartt and backup defensive tackle Julian Taylor were preemptively ruled out. Top defensive tackle Arik Armstead caused a stir when he left a 49ers practice session earlier this week, but that absence was designated as a veteran’s rest day. Expect him to test the Saints’ Armstead and fill-in left guard Nick Easton early and often on Sunday.

Here is the full list of inactive players who will be watching this one from the sidelines:

From the Saints

OL Andrus Peat
FB Zach Line
LB Kiko Alonso
LB A.J. Klein
CB Patrick Robinson
OL Will Clapp
FS Saquan Hampton

From the 49ers

S Jaquiski Tartt
DT Julian Taylor
WR Dante Pettis
WR Marquise Goodwin
QB C.J. Beathard
TE Levine Toilolo
RB Jeff Wilson

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Ranking the top 25 potential free agents for 2020

Dak Prescott, Jadeveon Clowney, Cam Newton and Jameis Winston highlight the list of impending NFL free agents for the upcoming offseason.

49ers injury outlook continues trending up ahead of crucial showdown with Saints

Arik Armstead got a day off, while the 49ers health continues improving ahead of their showdown with the Saints.

The 49ers’ injury report from Thursday’s practice looks only slightly different than Wednesday’s. The only changes to it are positive on the injury front for San Francisco heading into their crucial Week 14 visit to New Orleans to take on the No. 1-seed Saints.

Wide receiver Dante Pettis missed practice Wednesday with a knee injury he suffered in practice leading up to the team’s Week 13 loss to the Ravens. He was inactive vs. Baltimore, but his return to practice Thursday could signal that the second-year receiver will be available vs. New Orleans.

A glaring difference was Arik Armstead’s absence Thursday after a full Wednesday practice. The team’s leader in sacks missed the session for a veteran’s day off. There was no injury, and there’s no doubt about his availability Sunday.

Defensive tackle DJ Jones also got a full session in after limited participation Wednesday. He sprained his ankle against the Ravens and was considered day-to-day to start the week. Thursday’s practice indicates Jones will be ready to play Sunday, although his status won’t be determined until after Friday’s practice.

Here’s the full participation report for Thursday:

Did not participate

DL Arik Armstead (non-injury related)
S Jaquiski Tartt (ribs)
DL Jullian Taylor (elbow)

Limited participation

DE Dee Ford (quad, hamstring)
CB Richard Sherman (knee)
TE George Kittle (knee, ankle)
WR Dante Pettis (knee)
OT Joe Staley (finger)

Full participation

DT D.J. Jones (ankle)
RB Matt Breida (ankle)
WR Deebo Samuel (shoulder)
WR Emmanuel Sanders (ribs)

First glance at the top 2020 free agents

Dak Prescott and Jadeveon Clowney highlight the list of potential free agents for 2020.

At the moment, the 2020 free-agent class looks stellar. It’s loaded with current, former and potential franchise quarterbacks and one big-time wide receiver

It also has some strong pass rushers. There are a few solid offensive linemen and a smattering of talented players at other positions. There could even be some big additions that could be added to the list if their current teams decide to let them go.

Hypothetically, this could rank as the best free-agent class ever. But let’s keep in mind that much can change between now and the official opening of free agency in March.

When it comes to the very top players on the list, their current teams are going to fight like heck to keep them with new contracts. That’s especially true with the quarterbacks.

Think about this for a second – who’s the last true franchise quarterback to switch teams in free agency? I say Drew Brees, who went from the Chargers to the Saints in 2006. Even then, the circumstances were unique. Brees had a severe shoulder injury and there was uncertainty if he would be able to play again. Plus the Chargers had Philip Rivers waiting in the wings. The Saints took a gamble on Brees and it paid off hugely.

But, again, that kind of thing is rare. The list of free agents will look much different in March than it does now.

Still, it’s fun to look at who is scheduled to be available in free agency. Here’s a list of the top 25 players, who, at the moment, are supposed to be available in March and it includes a couple of guys who are likely to be added to the list (Cam Newton, for example) who are likely to be released by their current teams and join the free-agent pool.

25. Brandon Scherff, G, Washington Redskins

Interior linemen seldom get big money in free agency. But Scherff could be the exception. He’s a dominant run blocker and those are hard to come by.

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49ers vs. Ravens: 6 players to watch on defense

The 49ers defense faces its toughest test of the year against the Ravens.

The 49ers defense put together their best game of the season last week holding Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to eight points. Now they face the second step of their three-game stretch of great quarterbacks when they head to Baltimore to face Lamar Jackson, who presents a whole different challenge than Rodgers.

The defense will have its hands full with the high-powered Baltimore offense and another quarterback capable of racking up big yards on the ground. Here are the six players to watch on the 49ers defense:

DL Nick Bosa

Bosa had his first sack in the month of November against Green Bay. Sunday night also happened to be the 49ers’ first game of the month against a non-mobile quarterback. On Sunday, the 49ers face Jackson who might be the best mobile quarter in the league. It’s possible it’s a trend for Bosa that he struggles getting to mobile quarterbacks, but he was able to continue getting pressure in those three games without a sack. The 49ers will need help from the entire front seven to contain Jackson and it’ll start with Bosa getting home from the edge.

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Scouting the San Francisco 49ers

A look at the San Francisco 49ers, who play the Ravens in Week 13, from a tendency point of view.

In one of the games of the week, if not the entire 2019 season, the red hot Baltimore Ravens take on the San Francisco 49ers at M&T Bank Stadium in Week 13. The Ravens have won their last six games and sit atop the AFC North at 9-2. The 49ers also lead their division and if the season ended today would have the No. 1 seed in the NFC on the back of their 10-1 record. These teams have met five times in the regular season since 1996. Baltimore has a 3-2 advantage. They also met in the Super Bowl following the 2012 season, with John Harbaugh emerging victorious over his brother Jim who was 49ers head coach at the time.

Let’s take a closer look at San Francisco to give us a better look at what we can expect to see from them on offense and defense.

Offense

49ers coach Kyle Shanahan has long been thought of as one of the better offensive coaches in the NFL. His team has certainly lived up to his billing this season as they trail only the Ravens in points scored. They sit at sixth in total yards. The 49ers, in another similarity to the Ravens, have found most of their offensive success on the ground so far this season. Their 1,602 rushing yards are the second-most in the NFL, while they are close to the middle of the pack in terms of passing. The 49ers have 2,603 passing yards this season, which ranks 14th.

From a formation point of view, the 49ers are one of the more versatile in the NFL. They line up in 11 personnel (one back, one tight end, three wide receivers) on 40% of their offensive plays, a long way below the league average and more than only two teams. They predominantly pass out of this formation, doing so on 70% of their plays. San Francisco averages 7.6 yards per passing attempt out of the 11 formation, but also average 5.4 yards per rushing attempt.

The 49ers use 12 personnel (one back, two tight ends, two wide receivers) on a quarter of their plays and tend to run out of this formation despite only averaging 3.4 yards per attempt.

The 49ers use 21 personnel (two backs, one tight end, two wide receivers at the second-highest rate in the league, lining up this way on 22% of their plays. They have a pass:run rate of 42%:58% with two backs on the field, averaging 9 yards per pass attempt and 4.9 yards per rush.

In a shotgun league, the 49ers put their quarterback under center at one of the highest rates in the NFL — 59% of their offensive plays are run with Jimmy Garoppolo under center. They run the ball on 69% of their plays when this happens. When Garoppolo has lined up in the gun, it has been a pass on 77% of the plays. In neutral situations (when the 49ers are up or down by seven points or less), the 49ers have a pass:run rate of 54%:46%. But their overall pass to run ratio of 0.83 is the second-lowest in the NFL this season.

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