UFC Fight Night 224: Andre Fialho vs. Joaquin Buckley odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 224 odds and lines between Andre Fialho vs. Joaquin Buckley with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a welterweight bout on the main card, Andre Fialho and Joaquin Buckley meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 224 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 224: Fialho vs. Buckley odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET, with the main card on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Fialho has dropped 2 straight fights, both via KO/TKO, suffering a 3rd-round setback against Muslim Salikhov in November and a 2nd round defeat to Jake Matthews in June. Each of his past 4 fights has ended via knockout, with 2 wins and 2 losses.

Buckley is also on a 2-bout losing streak. He was knocked out by Chris Curtis in the 2nd round at UFC 282 last time out in December and suffered a unanimous-decision loss to Nassourdine Imavov in early September.

Buckley has a 2-inch reach advantage and a slight 3.87-to-3.17 significant strikes landed per minute. Neither of the fighters is particularly accurate with the strikes, with Fialho posting a 41.43% significant strike accuracy to 35.01% for Buckley. Buckley is better in the takedown game, posting an average of 1.23 to 0.00 for Fialho, with a 30.43% takedown accuracy percentage.

UFC Fight Night 224: Fialho vs. Buckley odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:22 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Fialho +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Buckley -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -135 | Under +105)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +180 | No -250)

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UFC Fight Night 224: Fialho vs. Buckley picks and predictions

Records: Fialho (16-6-0) | Buckley (15-6-0)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Buckley (-225) will cost you more than 2 times your potential return, and that’s risky business on a guy entering the octagon on a 2-bout losing skid.

PASS, and look to the method of victory instead. Fialho hasn’t been great on defense, and playing BUCKLEY BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (-105) at near even money on the 5-way line is a much better value.

Over/Under (O/U)

No (-250): Fight to go the distance? is a little too costly, and there is no value in playing it.

However, I do think OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-135) is a strong play as I don’t think we’ll see a Round 1 result. Even the 2 fights that Fialho was knocked out went to at least 2:24 of the 2nd Round.

The past 5 fights for Buckley have lasted until 2:49 of the 2nd Round or later, too.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC Fight Night 224 predictions: Who’s picking Angela Hill to upset Mackenzie Dern?

Check out our staff members’ picks for the UFC Fight Night 224 main card, featuring Mackenzie Dern vs. Angela Hill.

Dern
vs.
Hill
Hernandez
vs.
Shahbazyan
Ducote
vs.
Godinez
Buckley
vs.
Fialho
Ferreira
vs.
Johnson
MMA Junkie readers’
consensus picks
73-51
dern2023
Dern
(79%)
hernandez2023
Hernandez
(54%)
godinez2023
Godinez
(74%)
buckley2023
Buckley
(69%)
johnson2023
Johnson
(52%)
Matt Erickson
@MattE
81-43
dern2023
Dern
hernandez2023
Hernandez
godinez2023
Godinez
buckley2023
Buckley
ferreira2023
Ferreira
Simon Samano
@SJSamano
78-46
dern2023
Dern
shahbazyan2023
Shahbazyan
ducote2023
Ducote
buckley2023
Buckley
ferreira2023
Ferreira
Matthew Wells
@MrMWells
77-47
dern2023
Dern
shahbazyan2023
Shahbazyan
godinez2023
Godinez
buckley2023
Buckley
ferreira2023
Ferreira
George Garcia
@MMAjunkieGeorge
74-50
dern2023
Dern
hernandez2023
Hernandez
godinez2023
Godinez
buckley2023
Buckley
johnson2023
Johnson
Nolan King
@mma_kings
74-50
dern2023
Dern
hernandez2023
Hernandez
ducote2023
Ducote
buckley2023
Buckley
ferreira2023
Ferreira
Mike Bohn
@MikeBohn
72-52
trophy copy 2014 Champion
dern2023
Dern
shahbazyan2023
Shahbazyan
godinez2023
Godinez
buckley2023
Buckley
ferreira2023
Ferreira
Ken Hathaway
@kenshathaway
-70-54
trophy copy 2018, 2022 Champion
dern2023
Dern
shahbazyan2023
Shahbazyan
godinez2023
Godinez
buckley2023
Buckley
ferreira2023
Ferreira
Farah Hannoun
@Farah_Hannoun
68-56
dern2023
Dern
shahbazyan2023
Shahbazyan
godinez2023
Godinez
buckley2023
Buckley
ferreira2023
Ferreira
Danny Segura
@dannyseguratv
68-56
hill2023
Hill
shahbazyan2023
Shahbazyan
godinez2023
Godinez
buckley2023
Buckley
johnson2023
Johnson
Abbey Subhan
@kammakaze
68-56
dern2023
Dern
shahbazyan2023
Shahbazyan
ducote2023
Ducote
buckley2023
Buckley
johnson2023
Johnson
Brian Garcia
@thegoze
65-59
trophy copy 2017 Champion
dern2023
Dern
shahbazyan2023
Shahbazyan
ducote2023
Ducote
buckley2023
Buckley
ferreira2023
Ferreira

The UFC is back in its “Sin City” home base with a slightly delayed women’s strawweight bout at the top of the card.

UFC Fight Night 224 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card streams on ESPN+.

(Click here to open a PDF of the staff picks grid in a separate window.)

In the main event, [autotag]Mackenzie Dern[/autotag] (12-3 MMA, 7-3 UFC) takes on [autotag]Angela Hill[/autotag] (15-12 MMA, 10-12 UFC) in a women’s 115-pound matchup that was supposed to take place this past week at UFC on ABC 4 until it was pulled to headline this card. Jiu-jitsu ace Dern nearly is a 2-1 favorite at most sportsbooks, and she’s got a big lead in the picks from our 11 editors, writers, radio hosts and videographers, who have it as a blowout for her at 10-1.

In the co-feature, [autotag]Anthony Hernandez[/autotag] (10-2 MMA, 4-2 UFC) meets [autotag]Edmen Shahbazyan[/autotag] (12-3 MMA, 5-3 UFC) in a middleweight matchup. Hernandez is a big favorite at nearly 3-1, but only three of our staff members are picking him and have Shahbazyan in an upset at 8-3.

Also on the main card, [autotag]Emily Ducote[/autotag] (12-7 MMA, 1-1 UFC) and [autotag]Loopy Godinez[/autotag] (9-3 MMA, 4-3 UFC) fight at a 120-pound contract weight, granted due to the short notice for Godinez, who stepped in for Polyana Viana. Godinez is a mild favorite, and she’s got a 7-4 lead in the picks.

[autotag]Joaquin Buckley[/autotag] (15-6 MMA, 5-4 UFC) is a 2-1 favorite at middleweight against [autotag]Andre Fialho[/autotag] (16-6 MMA, 2-3 UFC), and he’s also our only unanimous pick on the main card at 11-0.

And to open the main card at lightweight, [autotag]Michael Johnson[/autotag] (21-18 MMA, 13-14 UFC) will try to get back to .500 in the UFC when he takes on [autotag]Diego Ferreira[/autotag] (17-5 MMA, 8-5 UFC). Ferreira is a -150 favorite and has a big 8-3 lead from our pickers.

In the MMA Junkie consensus picks, Dern (79 percent), Hernandez (54 percent), Godinez (74 percent), Buckley (69 percent) and Johnson (52 percent) are the choices.

Check out all the picks above.

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC Fight Night 224.

Andre Fialho criticizes UFC Fight Night 224 opponent Joaquin Buckley’s ‘not very smart’ fight IQ

Andrea Fialho thinks his UFC Fight Night 224 opponent Joaquin Buckley has all of the physical tools, but not the mental approached needed.

LAS VEGAS – UFC welterweight [autotag]Andre Fialho[/autotag] believes his upcoming opponent is a physical problem inside the cage, but his mental approach hinders his success.

On the main card of UFC Fight Night 224, which takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex, Fialho (16-6 MMA, 2-3 UFC) takes on Joaquin Buckley, a fighter with a number of impressive highlight-reel finishes. It’s a spot where both fighters need to get their hand raised to halt their losing skids.

Fialho acknowledges Buckley (15-6 MMA, 5-4 UFC) is one to watch out for, but explained he believes his opponent lacks something perhaps more important than physical threats, while also giving an honest assessment of his own issues.

“He’s very dangerous, very explosive, great athlete – but he’s not very smart when fighting,” Fialho told reporters at Wednesday’s media day. “He doesn’t have great IQ. I can say I haven’t used my IQ in fight as well, but I have been working on my patience a lot. I’m going to be patient this fight, and I want to use my IQ because I believe I’m a very smart fighter, but I haven’t been able to show you in the cage.”

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Both fighters are entering the octagon on two-fight skids to close out their 2022 campaigns; Fialho was stopped by Jake Matthews and Muslim Salikhov, while Buckley was finished by Chris Curtis and lost a decision to Nassourdine Imavov. On a good note, though, both fighters were on winning streaks before the bumps in the road. Fialho believes a few adjustments and mixing up his approach will get him back on track.

“I think I just got overconfident,” Fialho said. “I thought my hands were enough, but as the level gets higher and people study me, they just expect my hands and it’s easier for them to defend and have a gameplan for it. I guess I had some of those weapons already, but I’ve just been working on it more and more.”

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC Fight Night 224.

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Video: UFC Fight Night 224 media day interviews

Before UFC Fight Night 224 arrives, 12 athletes from the main card are scheduled to speak to reporters Wednesday at media day.

LAS VEGAS – The UFC schedule for May closes out Saturday with UFC Fight Night 224, which takes place at the UFC Apex with a full card that streams on ESPN+.

A strawweight main event serves as the final act on the card. [autotag]Mackenzie Dern[/autotag] will take on [autotag]Angela Hill[/autotag] in a matchup of fighters looking to take the next step forward in the division.

Before fight night arrives, though, 11 athletes spoke to reporters Wednesday at media day, and MMA Junkie was in attendance.

If you happen to miss any of the individual sessions on the live stream, check below for the archived videos of each media day.

UFC Fight Night 224 pre-event facts: Will third time be the charm for Mackenzie Dern?

Check out the numbers behind UFC Fight Night 223, where Mackenzie Dern will make her third attempt at a UFC main event victory.

After two weeks on the road, the UFC returns to its home base on Saturday for UFC Fight Night 224 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The entire card streams on ESPN+.

The makeshift main event for the card will feature a pair of strawweight contender hopefuls. [autotag]Mackenzie Dern[/autotag] (12-3 MMA, 7-3 UFC) will meet [autotag]Angela Hill[/autotag] (15-12 MMA, 10-12 UFC) in a five-round matchup.

For more on the numbers behind the headliner, as well as the rest of the card, check below for MMA Junkie’s pre-event facts for UFC Fight Night 223.

Matchup Roundup: New UFC and Bellator fights announced in the past week (April 17-23)

All the UFC and Bellator fight announcements that were first reported or confirmed by MMA Junkie in the past week.

MMA fight announcements are hard to follow. With so many outlets and channels available, it’s nearly impossible to organize.

But here at MMA Junkie, we’ve got your back.

Each week, we’ll compile all the newly surfaced fights in one spot. Every Monday, expect a feature listing everything you might have missed from the UFC or Bellator.

Here are the fight announcements that were broken or confirmed by MMA Junkie from April 17-23.

Joaquin Buckley returns to welterweight, meets Andre Fialho at UFC even May 20

Joaquin Buckley is set to return to his original weight class.

[autotag]Joaquin Buckley[/autotag] will return to his original weight class.

Buckley (15-6 MMA, 5-4 UFC) will drop back down to 170 pounds to take on [autotag]Andre Fialho[/autotag] (16-6 MMA, 2-3 UFC) on May 20 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, promotion officials announced Tuesday.

Buckley announced that he plans on dropping to welterweight after losing to Chris Curtis at UFC 282 this past December, his second consecutive defeat. Prior to that, “New Mansa” scored three straight wins, two by knockout.

Fialho will look to snap a two-fight losing skid. After scoring back-to-back Performance of the Night first-round knockouts of Miguel Baeza and Cameron VanCamp, the Kill Cliff FC fighter was stopped by Jake Matthews and most recently Muslim Salikhov this past November.

The UFC Fight Night lineup for May 20 includes:

  • Irene Aldana vs. Raquel Pennington
  • Anthony Hernandez vs. Edmen Shahbazyan
  • Joaquin Buckley vs. Andre Fialho
  • Orion Cosce vs. Gilbert Urbina
  • Diego Ferreira vs. Michael Johnson
  • Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz
  • Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Brunno Ferreira
  • Ilir Latifi vs. Rodrigo Nascimento
  • Viacheslav Borshchev vs. Hayisaer Maheshate
  • Nick Fiore vs. Chase Hooper
  • Victoria Leonardo vs. Natalia Silva

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For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for the UFC Fight Night event May 20.

Irene Aldana vs. Raquel Pennington main event among additions to UFC card May 20

The UFC Fight Night card for May 20 is announced with a handful of new additions including a Irene Aldana vs. Raquel Pennington main event.

The UFC Fight Night lineup for May 20 continues to fill as a main event is among new official additions.

Women’s bantamweight contenders [autotag]Irene Aldana[/autotag] and [autotag]Raquel Pennington[/autotag] will headline the event in a five-round bout, the promotion announced Tuesday. The event takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Aldana (14-6 MMA, 7-4 UFC) and Pennington (15-8 MMA, 12-7 UFC) were initially linked to a March 25 main event matchup in San Antonio. However, the bout never materialized.

The bout will be rematch of a UFC on ESPN 4 matchup, which took place in July 2019 and saw Pennington defeat Aldana by split decision.

Some fans and pundits speculated Aldana would be next for bantamweight champion Amanda Nunes. However, the promotion ultimately booked Nunes in a trilogy bout vs. Julianna Peña instead.

Aldana, 35, has won two straight fights and four of her most recent five. Her two most recent victories were TKOs against Yana Kunitskaya and Macy Chiasson.

Pennington, 34, rides a five-fight winning streak into the bout, which includes victories over Marion Reneau, Pannie Kianzad, Macy Chiasson, Aspen Ladd, and Ketlen Vieira.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CrMkOHIt_bM/

Other new additions to the card announced Tuesday include [autotag]Joaquin Buckley[/autotag] (15-6 MMA, 5-4 UFC) vs. [autotag]Andre Fialho[/autotag] (16-6 MMA, 2-3 UFC), [autotag]Orion Cosce[/autotag] (8-1 MMA, 1-1 UFC) vs. [autotag]Gilbert Urbina[/autotag] (6-2 MMA, 0-1 UFC), and [autotag]Victoria Leonardo[/autotag] (9-4 MMA, 1-2 UFC) vs. [autotag]Natalia Silva[/autotag] (14-5-1 MMA, 2-0 UFC).

With the additions, the UFC Fight Night lineup for May 20 includes:

  • Irene Aldana vs. Raquel Pennington
  • Anthony Hernandez vs. Edmen Shahbazyan
  • Joaquin Buckley vs. Andre Fialho
  • Orion Cosce vs. Gilbert Urbina
  • Diego Ferreira vs. Michael Johnson
  • Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz
  • Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Brunno Ferreira
  • Ilir Latifi vs. Rodrigo Nascimento
  • Viacheslav Borshchev vs. Hayisaer Maheshate
  • Nick Fiore vs. Chase Hooper
  • Victoria Leonardo vs. Natalia Silva

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for the UFC Fight Night event May 20.

UFC Fight Night 215 Promotional Guidelines Compliance pay: Lowest payout in program history

UFC Fight Night 215 fighters took home UFC Promotional Guidelines Compliance pay, a program that continued after the UFC’s deal with Venum.

LAS VEGAS – Fighters from Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 215 event took home UFC Promotional Guidelines Compliance pay totaling $80,000.

The program, a comprehensive plan that includes outfitting requirements, media obligations and other items under the fighter code of conduct, replaces the previous payments made under the UFC Athlete Outfitting Policy.

UFC Fight Night 215 took place at the UFC Apex. The entire card streamed on ESPN+.

The full UFC Fight Night 215 UFC Promotional Guidelines Compliance payouts included:

* * * *

[autotag]Kennedy Nzechukwu[/autotag]: $6,000
def. [autotag]Ion Cutelaba[/autotag]: $11,000

[autotag]Waldo Cortes-Acosta[/autotag]: $4,000
def. [autotag]Chase Sherman[/autotag]: $11,000

[autotag]Muslim Salikhov[/autotag]: $6,000
def. [autotag]Andre Fialho[/autotag]: $4,500

[autotag]Jack Della Maddalena[/autotag]: $4,000
def. [autotag]Danny Roberts[/autotag]: $11,000

[autotag]Charles Johnson[/autotag]: $4,000
def. [autotag]Zhalgas Zhumagulov[/autotag]: $6,000

[autotag]Jennifer Maia[/autotag]: $6,000
def. [autotag]Maryna Moroz[/autotag]: $6,000

[autotag]Miles Johns[/autotag]: $6,000
def. [autotag]Vince Morales[/autotag]: $6,000

[autotag]Ricky Turcios[/autotag]: $4,000
def. [autotag]Kevin Natividad[/autotag]: $4,000

[autotag]Vanessa Demopoulos[/autotag]: $4,500
def. [autotag]Maria Oliveira[/autotag]: $4,000

[autotag]Brady Hiestand[/autotag]: $4,000
def. [autotag]Fernie Garcia[/autotag]: $4,000

[autotag]Natalia Silva[/autotag]: $4,000
def. [autotag]Tereza Bleda[/autotag]: $4,000

Under the UFC Promotional Guidelines Compliance program’s payout tiers, which appropriate the money generated by Venum’s multi-year sponsorship with the UFC, fighters are paid based on their total number of UFC bouts, as well as Zuffa-era WEC fights and Zuffa-era Strikeforce bouts. Fighters with 1-3 bouts receive $4,000 per appearance; 4-5 bouts get $4,500; 6-10 bouts get $6,000; 11-15 bouts earn $11,000; 16-20 bouts pocket $16,000; and 21 bouts and more get $21,000. Additionally, champions earn $42,000 while title challengers get $32,000.

In addition to experience-based pay, UFC fighters will receive in perpetuity royalty payments amounting to 20-30 percent of any UFC merchandise sold that bears their likeness, according to officials.

Full 2022 UFC Promotional Guidelines Compliance payouts:

Year-to-date total: $7,634,500
2021 total: $6,167,500
Program-to-date total: $13,812,000

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC Fight Night 215.

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UFC Fight Night 215 post-event facts: Jack Della Maddalena makes waves with third-straight KO

Check out all the facts and figures from UFC Fight Night 215, which featured a number of notable feats.

The UFC closed its November schedule on Saturday with UFC Fight Night 215, a decision-heavy event at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

One fighter who didn’t need the judges, however, was [autotag]Kennedy Nzechukwu[/autotag] (11-3 MMA, 5-3 UFC), who made the most of his makeshift main event opportunity with a second-round TKO of [autotag]Ion Cutelaba[/autotag] (16-9-1 MMA, 5-8-1 UFC) in their light heavyweight clash.

For more on the numbers behind the headliner, as well as the rest of the card, check below for MMA Junkie’s post-event facts from UFC Fight Night 215.