Tag: Analytics

4 Big takeaways from snap counts in Browns vs. Falcons

What can we pull away from the snap count totals from Browns vs. Falcons?

This might be the wackiest-looking snap count the Cleveland Browns have ever had to navigate. As the Browns lost to the Atlanta Falcons, they had to get creative with their defensive personnel. With an injury-riddled defensive line, we were bound to see some high numbers from players who played more snaps than they ever should have. Which was certainly the case in this one.

The OBR’s Anthony Reinhard does a fantastic job week in and week out of breaking down snaps by drive and total snap counts for the Browns. There are some interesting observations that arise when looking over this data.

First, let’s take a look at the snap count totals.

Browns LT Jedrick Wills ranks 2nd in pass block win rate through Week 3

While he catches heat from the fanbase, Jedrick Wills is second in the league in pass block win rate. #Browns

Well, well, well. Despite all of the heat Jedrick Wills takes from the fanbase, the left tackle ranks second in pass rush win rate for the Cleveland Browns through three weeks. Only Minnesota Vikings’ tackle Brian O’Neill falls above him in this metric. This is helping the Browns move the ball at a high level offensively.

Thus far, Wills has faced pass rushers like Brian Burns of the Carolina Panthers, Carl Lawson and first round pick Jermaine Johnson of the New York Jets, and Alex Highsmith of the Pittsburgh Steelers. This is not a bad crop of pass rushers to hit this high standard against.

This may be more of a narrative of what happens when the Browns have a quarterback who can get the ball out in a timely manner as well.

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Jacoby Brissett is exceeding expectations for the Cleveland Browns

As the Browns look to reach a record of 3-1 against the Falcons, the continued success of Jacoby Brissett will be key.

Who would have guessed at this point in the season the Cleveland Browns would be carried by Jacoby Brissett instead of what looked like a stellar defense on paper? That is where we are as the Browns are currently converting third and fourth downs at an extraordinary rate, and fall in the top-ten in nearly every offensive efficiency metric.

To summarize into one sentence, the Browns are operating an offense that is in the same tier as the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, and Miami Dolphins. As the Browns prepare for the Atlanta Falcons, we take a deep analytical dive into the Cleveland offense and the success Brissett has been able to find under center through three weeks.

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Browns converting third downs at extremely high rates through 3 weeks

The Browns are operating an efficient offense that is picking up first downs at a high rate

Through three weeks of the season, the Cleveland Browns are picking up first downs at an extremely high rate. Operating a top-five offense thus far against three defenses with plenty of talent, head coach Kevin Stefanski and quarterback Jacoby Brissett have the machine well-oiled and rolling.

They have an efficient passing game, the top run game in the league, and are scoring at a nice clip. Looking at the way they are converting first downs, it is no shock either. From quarterback sneaks to 30-yard deep bombs, the Cleveland offense has defenses on their heels thus far.

On third downs, the Browns are picking up first downs at a 73 percent clip, and a 78 percent clip on fourth downs. They are up there with the likes of the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, and Philadelphia Eagles in terms of offensive success this season.

They will look to keep up this rate when they travel to take on the Atlanta Falcons this week.

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Chiefs HC Andy Reid provides insight into team’s approach to analytics

Andy Reid provided insight into Statistical Analysis Coordinator Mike Frazier’s role and how the #Chiefs use analytics in day-to-day preparations and on game day.

Analytics has been a hot topic for Chiefs Kingdom lately after Patrick Mahomes was graded as the eighth-best quarterback by Pro Football Focus following his dominant Week 1 performance.

Mahomes joked after the team’s game on Thursday night that he’d be getting a low PFF grade this week after all of his near-interceptions. Speaking to reporters on Monday, Chiefs HC Andy Reid spoke about Mahomes’ comments, Pro Football Focus and how analytics play a role in what they do in Kansas City.

“He stays in tune with everything,” Reid said of Mahomes. “He’s pretty observant of things. Pro Football Focus has done a nice job with their stats and their analysis. I think they’re pretty accurate with things. That’s usable information. If it drives, it drives you, but it’s also pretty real. Mike Frazier deals with all of that. He tells you what’s right and what’s wrong and he gives guys — he’s also putting information out there for us.”

Frazier is the man in charge of all things analytics in Kansas City. That means evaluating the information that is put out there by Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders and other analytics entities, but also developing his own models for tracking and evaluating stats relevant to the team. He is entering his 10th season with the Chiefs in the role of Statistical Analysis Coordinator and his role remains prominent in terms of pre-game preparations.

“So, he can give you just about anything, statistically, that you need,” Reid said of Frazier. “Percentages and stats in certain areas on every situation that you’re talking about. It could be as simple as things that a team does on first-and-10. Their success rate, run-pass, what personnel groups are best and (so on). He gives us quite a little book there of stats that we can look at.”

In addition to the information that Frazier provides players and coaches with ahead of the game, Reid also confirmed he’s on the headset during the game informing everyone of statistics on specific scenarios.

That doesn’t always mean that Reid will listen to him, though.

An example was the field goal at the end of the third quarter which tied the game against the Chargers.

“Absolutely,” Reid said. “He’s on the headset. I mentioned after the game that, statistically, that might be the time that you kick it. And you have to evaluate that. That’s where I come in. I’ve got 51% of that vote and I have to make a decision there on how I feel things are going at that time and the what-ifs and all that. I’d tell, statistically, that’s a time when you normally go for it and you don’t end up kicking it.”

Reid opted for the field goal to tie the game when the analytics might have said otherwise. On the ensuing defensive stand, rookie CB Jaylen Watson had his 99-yard interception returned for a touchdown. It’s safe to say that Reid feels he made the right choice, even going against what the statistics might say in that particular situation.

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Browns offense fifth in Expected Points Added per play through two weeks

The offense of the Cleveland Browns has been surprisingly efficient despite starting Jacoby Brissett thus far.

That’s right, through two weeks the Jacoby Brissett-led Cleveland Browns are fifth in Expected Points Added per play (EPA/play). They fall behind just the Kansas City Chiefs, the Buffalo Bills, the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Miami Dolphins in this category.

EPA/play measures the success of an offense on a play-to-play basis, and how may points would be expected to be added on that play. The Browns currently sit with an EPA/play of just under .2 through this point in the season.

It is early, sure, but this is the blueprint for the Browns to win games with the journeyman spot starter in Brissett under center for the next nine games. It sure would help if the defense was not bottom five in EPA/play, just above the Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks, New York Jets, and Arizona Cardinals.

After blowing a two score lead in under two minutes, perhaps this is the fire that defensive coordinator Joe Woods and his unit needed to shape up to the form they played in during the stretch of the last seven games in 2021.

The Browns will be on a short week, playing their rivals in the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday night.

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NFL analytics expert predicts Commanders’ win total for 2022

How many games do the Commanders win in 2022?

The Washington Commanders kick off the 2022 regular season against the Jacksonville Jaguars from FedEx Field. For Washington, it’s been a long offseason for many headlines off the field. The biggest headline related to Washington’s roster was the acquisition of quarterback Carson Wentz.

In Ron Rivera’s first two seasons as head coach, Washington won seven games each season. Washington surprisingly won seven games and the NFC East in 2020 before finishing with a disappointing 7-10 record in 2021.

With an upgrade at quarterback for 2022, can the Commanders win more than seven games for the first time in Rivera’s tenure?

NFL.com’s analytics expert, Cynthia Frelund, recently previewed the 2022 season and predicted win totals for every team using her formula. Where did Washington land in Frelund’s projections?

Frelund’s projects give the Commanders 7.8 wins. That’s not enough for a playoff spot and third in the NFC East behind the Eagles and Cowboys.

Ceiling: 9.2

Floor: 6.2

FanDuel over/under: 8.5

Terry McLaurin earns more than 1,000 receiving yards in 54.4 percent of simulations and at least 1,100 yards 52 percent of the time, with his most likely TD number being seven. This makes him WR15 — with upside — in my fantasy model.

Frelund’s floor and ceiling appear on target with what many believe the Commanders can accomplish in 2022 with Wentz under center. So much depends on Wentz. If he plays to his talent level and cuts down on some of the head-scratching mistakes, Washington can win more than nine games.

As we’ve stated time and again, the Commanders’ 2022 season is about a bunch of ifs, with Wentz being the biggest.

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Where Auburn stands in final preseason ESPN SP+ standings

Do you think the Tigers are being slept on this year?

Analytics are becoming an increasingly larger part of sports as a whole, and one of ESPN’s college football stats has released its final rankings before the beginning of the college football season.

Writer Bill Connelly’s posted the final rankings (subscription required) on Sunday for ESPN’s SP+ stat, which he frames as a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency.” The stat takes “recent production, recent recruiting and recent history” into account in an attempt to statistically rank college football teams.

The Tigers landed at No. 21 in the rankings, which Connelly noted makes them one of the teams that could play potential sleeper in the SEC this season:

Tennessee, Mississippi State and Auburn are all 15 spots higher in SP+ than in the AP poll. Florida is 12 spots higher, Ole Miss 11 and Kentucky nine. Two main things to take from this: First, SP+ really likes the SEC this season (as we’ll see below). The combination of quality returning production averages and high-level recruiting and transfer portal usage should make for strong output in what is generally college football’s strongest conference.

Connelly also ranked teams by returning production, where the Tigers did not fare so well — they were ranked No. 55 on the list with an estimation of 65 percent returning production.

Auburn will have a chance to put the statistics to the test when it kicks off its season against Mercer on Sept. 3.

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League sources say that the Pelicans …

League sources say that the Pelicans are making a hard push to hire Detroit Pistons analytics ace Sammy Gelfand. Enclosed is a New York Times piece I wrote on Gelfand’s rise to prominence with the Golden State Warriors as part of Steve Kerr’s staff. A move to New Orleans would reunite Gelfand with Pelicans head coach Willie Green after they worked together under Kerr with the Warriors.

The Mavericks, like most NBA teams, had …

The Mavericks, like most NBA teams, had a preexisting relationship with Harrison because of his many years working at Nike. It also didn’t hurt that Harrison already had a close relationship with Jason Kidd, who was the preferred choice of several prominent figures within the Mavericks’ organization to succeed Carlisle on the bench after Kidd’s on-court contributions to Dallas’ first (and only) championship in 2011. Yet I’m told that the Mavericks did lean on Sportsology in their search for a new lead salary-cap strategist — they hired Andrew Baker away from Brooklyn — and for post-hiring counsel on building a front-office structure around Harrison and new vice president of basketball operations Michael Finley.