Tag: Analytics

Cleveland Browns analytics department named best in football by experts

In an episode of the Establish the Run podcast, hosts Adam Levitan and Mike Leone and guests ESPN’s Seth Walder and Sports Info Solutions’ Matt Manocherian named the Browns the best analytics department in football.

The Cleveland Browns front office was praised as the best analytics group in the NFL. In an episode of the Establish the Run podcast, hosts Adam Levitan and Mike Leone talked to ESPN’s Seth Walder and Sports Info Solutions’ Matt Manocherian about the future of analytics and how it will change football. The episode covers an array of topics from practical applications to speculative fields. The group briefly discussed which organizations had the best analytics departments before unanimously agreeing on the Browns.

The Browns have heavily invested in their analytics department over the decade. Jimmy Haslam hired Paul DePodesta as the chief strategy officer in 2016. Under DePodesta’s vision, the Browns hired head coach Kevin Stefanski and general manager Andrew Berry. The organization has completely embraced data analysis as a tool of the trade.

Berry and Stefanski have turned the Browns from one of the worst organizations into a perennial playoff contender. Andrew Berry has helped usher in the age of analytics. It’s not just the media and insiders who believe in the analytics department. NFL teams have shown a strong interest in Browns’ front office members over the past few years. Assistant general managers Catherine Raiche, and Glenn Cook interviewed for the general manager role with multiple organizations this offseason. The Minnesota Vikings hired, former Browns’ vice president of football operations, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah as their general manager.

The organization has built something special in its front office. The Browns will continue advancing the state of analytics in football, and the league will follow.

The Browns have an easier schedule than expected

The Cleveland Browns have the ninth easiest schedule in the NFL according to a new model

According to a new report, the Cleveland Browns have one of the easiest schedules in the league. X user Deepvaluebettor conducted the preview by combining multiple metrics creating a robust analysis of team schedules. The model examines how travel and rest days can affect teams, contextualizing the difficulties teams face when flying across time zones or playing after a short week. The Browns managed to avoid the brunt of negative situations this season, traveling only 6,000 miles and remaining in Eastern Standard Time for most of the season.

The Browns have the 9th easiest schedule in the league. According to the model, this season ranks in the 30th percentile of hardest schedules since 1999. 

The Browns don’t travel further west than Las Vegas this season. The team also caught a break by hosting the Miami Dolphins in Week 17. The team will fully benefit from home-field advantage, including the freezing temperatures.

The Browns need all the help they can get as they compete for the AFC North title. The division title has eluded the battle-tested team since they came back in 1999. 

The Browns have built a playoff contender, and winning the division is the best step toward establishing a perennial Super Bowl contender.

Warren Sharp isn’t high on the Commanders offensive line in 2024

But the Commanders are ranked second in the NFC East.

The Washington Commanders will likely begin the 2024 NFL season with three new starters on the offensive line. That’s good news, right? When you think of Washington’s offensive line last season, you immediately have this image of quarterback Sam Howell going down.

When you assess Howell’s 2023 season, you’d quickly realize that all those sacks he took weren’t on the offensive line. Some were on Howell, some on the offensive line, and some on former offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy’s offensive scheme.

Howell, Bieniemy, and his scheme are gone. Kliff Kingsbury is the new offensive coordinator, and rookie Jayden Daniels is the new quarterback.

The only returning offensive line starters are right guard Sam Cosmi and right tackle Andrew Wylie. There’s a good chance Wylie would’ve been replaced if general manager Adam Peters hadn’t needed to replace so many other positions. However, the Commanders believe a different voice, a different offense, can help Wylie. Remember, Washington led the NFL in passing attempts last season, often choosing not to run even in close games.

The Commanders’ three new offensive line starters are center Tyler Biadasz, left guard Nick Allegretti and left tackle Cornelius Lucas. Lucas is battling third-round rookie Brandon Coleman for the starting left tackle spot.

Analytics guru Warren Sharp recently released his 2024 NFL preview, and it’s clear that he doesn’t rate Washington’s offensive line highly, ranking them 27th in the NFL.

The good news? The Commanders are ranked ahead of the Cowboys after stealing away Biadasz — a four-year starter in Dallas.

Not only is Washington ranked ahead of Dallas, but another NFC East rival, the New York Giants, is ranked dead last. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Eagles are ranked fourth.

The Commanders offensive line could keep them from making a dramatic offensive improvement in 2024. There is a lot of hype around Daniels, but Washington must keep him upright. Opinions are mixed on Coleman. While most everyone liked him as a prospect, many saw him more at guard. Peters and the Commanders see Coleman as a tackle, and he split time with Lucas in the offseason program at left tackle.

Washington hopes Coleman is the answer. If he’s not, it could be another long season for the Commanders. As far as the interior offensive line goes, Washington is in good hands. Cosmi is a future All-Pro, while Biadasz is solid and reliable, exactly what you need when you’re starting a rookie quarterback.

How bad was the Commanders defense in 2023? This 1st quarter stat reveals how bad

Some really ugly numbers here.

During his four seasons as head coach of the Washington Commanders, Ron Rivera’s teams always seemed to get off to a slow start. Without elite quarterback play, it was always difficult for the Commanders to climb out of an early deficit.

In 2023, the defense was supposed to be a team strength. With four former first-round picks in the starting lineup on the defensive front, the Commanders defense should have made life easier for the offense.

Not only did that not happen, but Washington’s defense was even worse than the offense.

Here are the ugly numbers:

Those are some ugly numbers. Last season’s performance led Rivera to fire defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio and secondary coach Brent Vieselmeyer after a blowout loss to the Cowboys.

If you think those numbers are bad, Warren Sharp had another that showed Washington’s defensive ineptitude.

Insanity is the correct word. Quarterback Sam Howell never had a chance. It’s remarkable that the Commanders allowed so many first-quarter points, and that stat alone tells the complete story of the 2023 Washington Commanders.

Washington’s defense will be better under head coach Dan Quinn and defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr. in 2024. While the Commanders have some question marks, namely at edge rusher and cornerback, Quinn’s defenses always find a way. If nothing else, Washington will force turnovers — another thing it could not do last season.

What grade did ESPN give the Commanders for their entire offseason?

ESPN is lower than most on Washington’s offseason moves.

No NFL team had a busier offseason than the Washington Commanders. It began during the second week of January when owner Josh Harris fired head coach Ron Rivera. Harris hired general manager Adam Peters to oversee football relations and Dan Quinn as head coach.

Then came the release of some veteran players, followed by free agency. The Commanders were busy in free agency, signing over 20 players. Next was the 2024 NFL draft, where Washington selected nine players and signed 11 undrafted free agents.

Now, the question is, how much better are the Commanders in 2024?

We won’t know that answer until the games begin in September, but an improved roster combined with a highly respected coaching staff should yield better results in the fall.

Seth Walder of ESPN recently graded the offseason of all 32 NFL teams. What grade did he give the Commanders? Surprisingly, Walder gave Washington a C+ and explained why.

The Commanders are headed in a new direction with a new coach and, most importantly, a new quarterback in Daniels. How they fare will largely hinge on the Daniels’ performance, though we’re primarily judging how they have elected to build the team around him.

The team made a slew of midlevel free agency moves to improve the roster, signing Armstrong, center Tyler Biadasz, guard Nick Allegretti, linebackers Frankie Luvu and Bobby Wagner, quarterback Marcus Mariota, running back Austin Ekeler and safety Jeremy Chinn. Luvu and Wagner are a fun combination that could turn linebacker into a strength if Wagner has more left in the tank. And Armstrong is a solid edge rusher who recorded a better-than-average 18% pass rush win rate last season.

The Commanders have the second-most cap space in the league (and third-most in 2025) and should have used some of those resources on the offensive line. Of their five projected starters on the depth chart — Brandon Coleman, Allegretti, Biadasz, Sam Cosmi and Andrew Wylie — only Cosmi qualified and had an above-average pass block win rate at his position last season. That’s not ideal for a rookie quarterback.

Kendall Fuller leaving in free agency could sting on defense, as it leaves a weakness at corner.

It’s difficult to disagree with much of what Walder said. Walder said the thing he disliked the most was the Commanders not doing more to fix the offensive line. Most Washington fans would agree with that assessment. While the Commanders signed two free agents to start and selected Brandon Coleman in the third round, it feels like Washington didn’t do enough.

So much of what happens in 2024 depends on Jayden Daniels. That may be a bit unfair, but Washington’s cast of skill talent is much better than some believe. Of course, it does not matter unless the Commanders can protect Daniels.

Based on what Washington did on defense alone, that C+ grade feels low. We shall see in September,

One analytics model has Commanders with fewest wins in the NFL in 2024

One model has the Commanders winning fewer games in 2024 than they won last season.

The Washington Commanders won four games in 2023. They were terrible on defense, finishing last in virtually every metric. Offensively, Washington wasn’t a lot better. The Commanders led the NFL in passing attempts yet finished last in rushing attempts.

Washington had some much-needed change this offseason, starting with general manager Adam Peters and head coach Dan Quinn. The Commanders were busy in free agency and the NFL draft, but fans hope the new and improved coaching staff can help Washington’s returning players rebound from a poor season.

How good will the Commanders be in 2024? Some believe they can win anywhere from six to eight games, which would be a good building block in Quinn’s first season.

However, Sports Info Solutions doesn’t believe in Washington in 2024.

SIS recently used its model to project win totals for all 32 NFL teams next season. The Commanders came in last with a projected 3.2 wins. DraftKings had projected Washington to have 6.5 wins. That’s quite the difference.

It’s challenging to see Washington winning fewer than four games in 2024. Could it happen? Sure. But the Commanders will be better next season, with so much of their progress mirroring rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels’ development.

Could analytics lead the Commanders to choose Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy?

In what world would the Commanders choose J.J. McCarthy at No. 2?

Washington Commanders owner Josh Harris has never shied away from the importance of analytics to his sports organizations. He proved that with the Philadelphia 76ers and the New Jersey Devils. In October, Harris made his first big hire with the Commanders, hiring Eugene Shen to serve as Washington’s senior vice president of football strategy.

Shen quickly made his impact felt, consulting on the trades of defensive ends Montez Sweat and Chase Young for 2024 NFL draft compensation. The trades gave Washington a total of nine picks in the draft.

New general manager Adam Peters’ first big personnel move — no offense to free agency — is who he will select at quarterback?

Peters, himself a strong proponent of analytics, will likely decide between Jayden Daniels (LSU), Drake Maye (North Carolina) and J.J. McCarthy (Michigan) on Thursday night.

Most people believe the Commanders will choose Daniels — the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner. Others think the pick is Maye, who most think has the highest long-term ceiling.

What about McCarthy?

The national championship quarterback may have less buzz than Maye and Daniels for No. 2 overall, but some who know Peters believe he’s firmly in the mix.

And, according to a report from Jason La Canfora of The Washington Post, if Washington allows analytics to help make the decision on the No. 2 overall pick, two other NFL GMs think McCarthy may be the pick.

Two general managers told me they believe that if the Washington Commanders let the analytics guide them, McCarthy is their guess for the No. 2 pick. If the team’s coaches hold significant sway and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s voice resonates, then Daniels would be the selection. Both general managers also believe Daniels would love to be a Raider.

Two things here: How much of an impact will analytics play in the decision for the No. 2 pick? Secondly, how much sway will Kingsbury have?

One note on Kingsbury: does anyone know if Kingsbury would prefer Daniels over Maye?

The 2024 NFL draft begins on Thursday.

This chart says Dennis Allen is the NFL’s best defensive play caller

This chart says Dennis Allen is the NFL’s best defensive play caller. He’s good, and we don’t need advanced analytics to know that, but he isn’t infallible:

You won’t have a hard time convincing New Orleans Saints fans that Dennis Allen calls a mean defense — that’s his best strength, and it was the number-one reason so many people bought into the idea of promoting him to replace Sean Payton back in 2022. It’s Allen’s shortcomings as a leader and team-builder that drew criticism at the time and during the years since.

Still, it’s validating to see information like this plotted out to highlight Allen’s best qualities. NFL analyst Steve Patton ranked every defensive play caller from the 2023 season based on what he calls “coverage and market efficiency with team constraints” which examines how each defense performed relative to absences (for injuries and suspensions) and quality of opposition, among other factors.

And Allen came out on top. You don’t need to invent new metrics to see why. He fielded the league’s fourth-best defense on third downs (allowing a conversion on just 34.5% of downs) and the third-best unit on fourth downs (42.3%, with opponents going 11-for-26). Despite getting little production from his pass rush — the Saints finished with the NFL’s second-lowest pressure rate (15.1%) and fourth-worst sacks rate (5.7%) — Allen’s secondary held up even with Marshon Lattimore missing seven games to an injury. They allowed the 10th-fewest passing yards per game (207.3) and tied for the third-most interceptions (18).

But they weren’t perfect. Allen hasn’t been able to micromanage the run defense after being promoted to head coach, and it shows: even after drafting a first-round defensive tackle and signing two veteran free agents, New Orleans finished inside the bottom-10 in both yards per carry (4.4) and rushing yards per game (119.9). And he has to take the blame for a Saints pass rush that was asleep at the wheel for much of the season. Of their 34 sacks on the season, 15 came in the last five games. Allen’s reluctance to use undersized pass rushers like Zack Baun until the season was effectively over is a major blind spot in his coaching philosophy.

So take this chart’s findings with a grain of salt. Allen’s defensive play calling is an asset, sure, but he isn’t invincible. The Saints lost a pivotal early-season game to the Green Bay Packers when his defense gave up a pair of 80-yard touchdown drives in the fourth quarter. Sean McVay got the better of him in a late-season loss to the Los Angeles Rams that started with a 95-yard touchdown drive, and which got away from him when the Rams scored 20  unanswered points in four possessions before and after the halftime break. In this league, even a good defensive play caller can be outfoxed by an offense firing on all cylinders.

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Data Dump: Where do the Browns rank in the NFL after beating Bears

How the Cleveland Browns rank in various metrics and advanced analytics compared to the rest of the NFL.

In this week’s Data Dump, we look at how well the Browns are progressing as the regular season starts to end and teams prepare for the playoffs. The Browns’ last-second victory over the Chicago Bears has nearly guaranteed them a spot in the AFC playoffs. The team must prepare their struggling offense for a playoff run against some of the top offenses in the NFL.

The Browns’ offense had a miserable showing against the Bears for the first three-quarters. They could not run or pass the ball against a resurging but average Bears’ defense. The advanced analytics will not be kind to the Browns’ offense this week. Although, after throwing over 130 passes in the past three weeks, Flacco should have a large enough sample size to include in charts on quarterback play. Although, throwing three interceptions, including a pick-six won’t help his EPA. 

The Browns defense remains dominant. They nearly shut out the Chicago Bears, ending most of their drives in three and outs. The defense is playoff-ready, and the unit will face off against some of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. The defense proved their tenacity and determination for nearly the entire season. The stats reflect it. The unit needs to finish the season strong as the team will go as far as they take them.

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Data Dump: What the trends tell us about the Browns with 5 weeks left

Examining NFL metrics and analytics to determine how well the Cleveland Browns are playing

The Cleveland Browns finished their two-week tour out west with painful losses to the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Rams. In this week’s “Data Dump,” we’ll see how poorly the Browns did during their mini odyssey. The trip was not kind to the Browns as their great defense faltered against experienced gunslingers and their crafty coaches. The offense returned with more questions at the quarterback position than when they left after Joe Flacco’s Cleveland debut.

The team’s homecoming against the Jacksonville Jaguars allows the Browns to right the ship and control their destiny for the remainder of the season. The Browns and Jaguars game has major implications for the AFC playoff race. The Jaguars are a good, but not a great team, battling to win the AFC South. If the Browns defeat the Jaguars, it will inspire a lot of confidence in the group, both internally and externally.

After 12 games, the Browns are firmly entrenched in their statistical tiers. One game can no longer swing the Browns in one direction or another. Right now, the Browns need to stack the success of multiple games to put a dent in their rankings. The team must finish the season strong and head into the playoffs on a hot streak.