Tag: advanced statistics

Advanced analytics favor Texas over TCU on Saturday

A deeper dive into the advanced metrics gives Texas the edge. 

No. 18 Texas plays host to No. 4 TCU on Saturday night for an all-important Big 12 Conference slugfest.

Texas enters as the favorite in the ballgame despite the Longhorns being the lower-ranked team and TCU entering this matchup unbeaten on the year.

ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Texas 73% odds of beating TCU on Saturday. Vegas opened up the odds with a seven-point line in favor of Texas.

A deeper dive into the advanced metrics still gives the Longhorns the edge.

Football analyst Parker Fleming released his advanced stats preview earlier this week. His model projects Texas to take down the Horned Frogs about 33-30.

Not much separates Texas and TCU on paper.

Each team’s offense is in the upper echelon in success rate and net points per drive. Texas has the advantage of facing a TCU defense that struggles with the run game. TCU’s uptempo passing attack offers a mismatch vs. Texas’ secondary.

Expect a close game in Austin, Texas on Saturday night.

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Texas Football: Where the Longhorns rank in advanced analytics

Breaking down where the Texas Longhorns rank among the country in Expected Points over Average (EPA)? Plus a look at explosive plays.

Recently Longhorns Wire dove into the statistical rankings for Texas this year. Now we use the advanced statistical model known as EPA. It stands for Expected Points over Average. Much like the baseball stat WAR (wins above replacement). While that measures an individuals contribution to the team, EPA is more of measuring how efficient the entire team as a whole. It breaks down into categories (rush, pass, success rate, overall EPA).

These models use historical scoring odds to estimate the value of each spot on the field based on down and distance. If a team runs a play that improves its chances of scoring next, that’s worth positive EPA. Big plays—such as a 40-yard completion or a conversion on 3rd and long—are worth more EPA than smaller ones, like a 5 yard gain on first down.

EPA Margin

Team Margin Rank
Oklahoma 0.129 16
Oklahoma State 0.063 34
West Virginia 0.054 36
Iowa State 0.049 37
Texas 0.037 45
Baylor -0.015 72
Kansas State -0.017 73
Texas Christian -0.024 78
Texas Tech -0.062 92
Kansas -0.271 122

Texas Offense EPA Ranks

Category Number Big 12 Rank Overall Rank
Offensive EPA 0.014 3rd 64th
Play success rate 38.2% 4th 80th
Rush EPA -0.105 6th 91st
Pass EPA 0.120 2nd 43rd

Texas Defense EPA Ranks

Category Number Big 12 Rank Overall Rank
Defensive EPA -0.064 5th 35th
Success Rate 41.9% 8th 77th
Rush EPA -0.239 1st 13th
Pass EPA 0.072 8th 65th

The Texas Longhorns rush defense has been one of the better aspects of the defense as of late. The EPA rankings confirm what we have seen on the field as of late. They will face the 20th most efficient run teams in the Iowa State Cyclones on Nov. 27. They average 6.0 yards per rushing attempt. The Longhorns counter with a defense that allows 3.9 which is 15th in the country.

Next we dive into situational statistics

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