Tag: 5 things to watch

Packers vs. Seahawks: 5 things to watch and a prediction for Week 15

Five things to watch and a prediction for the Packers’ Week 15 showdown with the Seahawks.

The Green Bay Packers (9-4) and Seattle Seahawks (8-5) will face off Sunday night at Lumen Field in what could be a playoff preview between one of the top contenders for a wildcard spot and the current NFC West leaders. In fact, if the season ended today, the Packers would be playing the Seahawks in Seattle in the wildcard round.

Can the Packers — who haven’t won in Seattle since 2008 — bounce back from a hard-fought loss in Detroit last Thursday night and beat the Seahawks in primetime?

Here are five things to watch and a prediction for Week 15:

JSN and Charbonnet

Coach Matt LaFleur said the Packers did extensive pre-draft work on receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and running back Zach Charbonnet, two of the go-to weapons for the Seahawks entering Sunday night. Smith-Njigba has blossomed into one of the NFL’s top slot targets, while Charbonnet — who is expected to start in place of Kenneth Walker III — is coming off a game in which he produced almost 200 total yards last week. Expect the Seahawks to feed both of them against the Packers. Jeff Hafley’s defense will need answers.

Offensive line bounce back?

The Packers struggled to block the Lions’ backup defensive front last week in Detroit, especially in the run game and against blitzes early. Can the offensive line bounce back against a strong Seahawks front in Seattle? The Seahawks have five pass-rushers with 30 or more pressures, and they’ve stuffed the run over the last four weeks. Lumen Field will be loud. The Packers need to be much better up front — both in terms of opening holes for Josh Jacobs and protecting Jordan Love — to beat the Seahawks on Sunday night.

Love vs. ascending defense

Jordan Love is first in yards per attempt, second in EPA/play and third in passer rating over the last four games. The Seahawks defense, meanwhile, is No. 1 in EPA/dropback over the same timeframe. Love is finally healthy, and he’s been more accurate and more mobile since the bye. The Seahawks are giving up just 15.5 points per game over a stretch against Brock Purdy, Kyler Murray (twice) and Aaron Rodgers. This is a good test for both — can Love keep playing at a high level against an ascending defense, or will the Seahawks prove their might defensively?

Pass-rush pressure

Geno Smith is completing 76.4 percent of his passes from clean pockets this season — only three quarterbacks have been better. Also, no quarterback has been under more pressure this season than Smith, who has 200 dropbacks under pressure. He’s thrown 10 picks against pressure. The Packers must pressure Smith on Sunday night. Seattle’s offensive line didn’t give up a sack last week but has mostly struggled to protect the passer this season. The weak points appear to be on the right side of the line. The Packers must take advantage. This would be a good time to get the four-man pass-rush going.

Big test for CBs

The Packers will be without Jaire Alexander and Javon Bullard, two preferred starters at cornerback. More than likely, Keisean Nixon will move into the slot with Carrington Valentine and Eric Stokes handling the perimeter against Jaxon Smith-Njigba, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The Seahawks are a pass-happy offense, and Geno Smith is an experienced and accurate passer. Can the Packers cornerbacks hold up in coverage? Surviving might require a big performance up front from the pass-rush.

Prediction: Packers 27, Seahawks 24 (7-6)

The Packers were one play away from beating the Lions in Detroit last Thursday night, so internal belief in going into Seattle and winning should be high, especially coming off the mini-bye and considering Jordan Love’s play over the last month. Then again, the Seahawks have won four straight games, have playmakers all over on offense and can win battles up front defensively with a deep pass-rushing core. Throw in a playoff-like atmosphere in Seattle, where the Packers haven’t won since 2008, and the challenge is clear. This game feels like a tossup. So, what should you do when you see a tossup? Go with the prediction you want. In what could be a back-and-forth contest, I think Love makes one big play and the defense pressures Geno Smith in one big moment to help the Packers escape with a narrow (but very important) win.

Packers vs. Lions: 5 things to watch and a prediction for Week 14

Five things to watch and a prediction for the Packers’ Week 14 showdown with the Lions.

The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions will kick off Week 14 in the NFL season with a pivotal NFC North showdown at Ford Field on Thursday night. With a win, the Packers — who have won three straight — can get back into the division race. With a loss, the Packers will have to focus their sights on the wildcard.

Can Matt LaFleur’s team avenge the Nov. 3 loss to the Lions at Lambeau Field and secure the biggest win of the season?

Here are five things to watch and a prediction for Week 14:

Toyotathon test

Can Jordan Love keep rolling? Since the bye and the start of Toyotathon, Love has three straight games with a passer rating of 100.0 and five touchdown passes and just one interception. Like last year, he’s heating up at exactly the right time. The Lions have 14 interceptions and are giving up only 5.9 net yards per pass attempt this season, so Detroit’s defense — even with so many injured players — presents a big test, especially on the road. In primetime, and at a venue where he produced one of his best games of the season last year, Love can make a big statement.

Physical opportunity

Both teams will be playing their third game in 12 days. While the Packers are dealing with their own injury issues entering Thursday night, the Lions have big issues up front on defense and could be vulnerable to some smashmouth football. Key contributors for the Lions are out at edge rusher, defensive tackle and linebacker. Can the Packers — and running back Josh Jacobs — impose their will early on?

Containing the new Fab Five

The Lions might be without left tackle Taylor Decker on Thursday, but Jared Goff’s offense won’t be lacking weapons. The new “Fab Five” might be the best in football. Running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery have combined for over 2,000 total yards and 22 touchdowns, receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is closing in on another 1,000-yard season, tight end Sam LaPorta has five receiving touchdowns and speedster Jameson Williams is averaging almost 17.0 yards per touch. Can the Packers keep these five from taking over the game? On a fast track at Ford Field, Jeff Hafley’s defense has a big challenge awaiting.

Avoiding negative plays

In the first meeting, the Packers had a pick-six turn the game before the half and made too many self-inflicted mistakes — mostly in the form of penalties and drops. Can Love protect the football and avoid the game-changing turnover? Can LaFleur’s team consistently catch the football and avoid the killer negative plays in the red zone? The Packers have made big strides in all these areas since the first meeting. It’s time for the Packers to prove they can play a clean game against a top contender.

Speaking of contenders…

This is a huge opportunity for the Packers to get a signature win with the playoffs nearing. Last year, the upset win at Ford Field lit up a young, improving team with confidence. This year, a win at Ford Field could keep the Packers surging to start December. Matt LaFleur’s team has three losses — to the 10-2 Eagles, 10-2 Vikings and 11-1 Vikings. But their only win over a team currently holding a postseason spot was a last-second victory over the Texans. The Packers were impressive in dispatching the 49ers and Dolphins over the last two weeks, but a win over the Lions on Thursday night would really prove their title credentials.

Prediction: Packers 27, Lions 24 (7-5)

At full strength, the Lions present the Packers with a ton of difficult problems on both sides of the football. But Matt LaFleur’s team isn’t getting the Lions at full strength, and I think the physical edge the Packers can create on offense is going to be the difference. These teams are playing a third game in less than two weeks, and the Packers have established — through the run game and the ability to create yards after the catch — a tough, physical identity. Playing indoors changes the dynamic somewhat, but the Packers can still attack up front where injuries have devastated Detroit’s first line of defense. Add in Jordan Love’s health and efficiency coming out of the bye, the improvements made in the red zone and the suffocating run defense shown over the last two weeks, and the Packers have the ingredients ready to beat the short-handed Lions. In the biggest game of the season, the Packers ride Jacobs, Tucker Kraft and Jayden Reed and get the one takeaway necessary to escape Ford Field with a huge victory.

Packers vs. Dolphins: 5 things to watch and a prediction for Week 13

Five things to watch and a prediction for the Packers’ Week 13 showdown with the Dolphins.

The Green Bay Packers will host the surging Miami Dolphins for the Thanksgiving nightcap at Lambeau Field on Thursday night.

Can the Packers, who are 8-3 and cruising toward a playoff spot, score a big holiday win over the Dolphins, who have won three straight games after a 2-6 start?

Here are five things to watch and a prediction for Week 13:

Love vs. Tua

This holiday showdown provides a tasty matchup of quarterbacks drafted in 2020 who cashed in with big deals this past offseason. Jordan Love was drafted 21 picks after Tua Tagovailoa in April 2020 and both quarterbacks signed deals worth over $50 million per season this past summer. This is the first time they’ll face off as starting quarterbacks. The last and only time the Packers saw Tagovailoa, a dominant first half from the Dolphins quarterback turned after a head injury, and he threw three picks in the second half of a comeback Packers win on Christmas Day 2022. After missing four games with another head injury earlier this season, Tagovailoa returned and ignited the Dolphins offense — throwing eight touchdown passes and one interception over the last three games. Love will be making his first career start against an AFC East foe.

Freeze out the Dolphins?

Can the Packers make life miserable for their southern visitors in the cold of a late November Wisconsin night? The forecast for Green Bay calls for a windchill of around 15 degrees at kickoff and possibly some flurries late in the game, with the wind a likely factor throughout the contest. It will be cold. The high-octane Dolphins offense has struggled outdoors late in seasons in recent years, and it’s easy to imagine the difficulty of tackling Josh Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson — who both weigh 220 pounds — for four quarters in the cold. The Packers — who are 20-3 at home in Week 10 or later under Matt LaFleur — need to make sure the wind and cold are a big homefield advantage on Thanksgiving Night.

Young vs. old

Thursday night’s showdown will feature the NFL’s youngest team (Packers) against the NFL’s oldest team (Dolphins). Will the age difference matter at all on a short week? On one hand, the Dolphins have a legitimate experience advantage, which could help with the mental hurdles of a short week. But the Packers should have a recovery advantage, and they didn’t have to travel this week. It will be interesting to see how the many Dolphins veterans respond to a short week and playing in the cold — a tough combo for an older body. In theory, the young Packers should have fresher legs, possibly creating an advantage late in the game.

Who tackles better?

The better tackling team might end up being the winner on Thursday night. The Dolphins are coming into Week 13 with the third-worst tackling grade at PFF, and the Packers can challenge their ability to make tackles with dynamic ball-carriers such as Josh Jacobs, Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft. But the Packers must also tackle consistently. The Dolphins run a quick strike passing game that relies on Tua Tagovailoa getting the ball out quick to playmakers. Running back De’Von Achane is dynamic. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have elite speed. Tight end Jonnu Smith is piling up yards after the catch. Can the Packers limit the damage? Tackling isn’t the most fun experience in the cold.

Quay’s encore

Packers linebacker Quay Walker is coming off what might be his best game as a pro. Can he build on the performance in a big matchup against the Dolphins? Miami’s offense is going to stress coverage in the middle of the field and force second-level defenders to cover a lot of space sideline-to-sideline. Walker must help muddy passing windows and also chase down the ball when the Dolphins try quick hitters outside or underneath. If Walker can fly around the field like he did last week, the Packers defense will have a chance to make life difficult on Miami’s offense.

Prediction: Packers 24, Dolphins 20 (6-5)

The Dolphins have a quarterback playing fast and efficient, a defense that hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in almost a month and veteran playmakers on both sides of the football. This will be a tough test for Matt LaFleur’s team, especially on a short week. The Packers should have some advantages built in pre-game — Green Bay is at home, recently had a bye week (providing time to prepare for the short week) and could get a boost from the forecast, which calls for cold and wind. Still, the Packers have to go out and play near their best to beat a Dolphins team gaining confidence. Can LaFleur’s team show the physical and mental toughness to play in the cold on a short week? The guess here is that the Packers run game provides the difference. The Dolphins have struggled to run the ball this season, while Josh Jacobs is really starting to heat up as a punishing tackle-breaker. He is the physical, tone-setting presence the Packers need in a game like this. Also, mark this down: Tucker Kraft — another tackle-breaking machine — will create a play or two with the ball in his hands that changes the game.

Packers vs. 49ers: 5 things to watch and a prediction for Week 12

Five things to watch and a prediction for the Packers’ Week 12 showdown with 49ers.

The Green Bay Packers will attempt to solidify their playoff position and deal a significant blow to the playoff hopes of a postseason rival when the short-handed San Francisco 49ers come to Lambeau Field for a late afternoon kickoff on Sunday.

Matt LaFleur’s team won’t have Jaire Alexander or Edgerrin Cooper, two key playmakers on defense, but Kyle Shanahan’s team will down their starting quarterback (Brock Purdy) and top edge rusher (Nick Bosa) for Sunday’s pivotal showdown.

Can the Packers deliver what could be a kill shot to the 49ers’ playoff hopes?

Here are five things to watch and a prediction for Week 12:

Facing a backup QB

Brandon Allen, a 2016 draft pick, will start at quarterback for the 49ers. He’s an experienced backup but his teams are just 2-7 when he starts overall, and he hasn’t started a game since 2021. Against a backup quarterback, the Packers must start fast, defend the run game and avoid game-changing mistakes. The plan has to be to put everything on Allen’s shoulders. If the Packers go up early, contain Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason on the ground and avoid turnovers, it’s hard to imagine the 49ers escaping Lambeau Field with a win. Don’t be surprised if Kyle Shanahan gets very creative in terms of manufacturing touches for elite playmakers like McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, so the Packers have to be ready for everything. Allen is a backup, but Shanahan is a top playcaller and the 49ers still have talent around him.

Protecting Jordan Love

With Bosa out, the Packers have a chance to dominate the line of scrimmage on offense. The 49ers have really struggled to disrupt the passer when Bosa hasn’t played this season, and the defense essentially crumbled after Bosa went out last week against Geno Smith and the Seahawks. The 49ers have gotten production out of veteran Leonard Floyd and Maliek Collins, but neither is as threatening without Bosa on the field. Jordan Love should have time in the pocket to attack some of the weak spots in the 49ers coverage. Consistently playing from clean pockets is the best way to produce efficiency in the passing game, and the Packers should have it Sunday.

Red zone spotlight, again

Both the Packers and 49ers have made it look easy gaining yards this season, but scoring in the red zone has been a recurring problem for both teams. The 49ers rank 27th in touchdown percentage in the red zone (48.8), while the Packers rank 28th (48.7). Can the Packers finally start heating up inside the 20? The 49ers have given up touchdowns on 20 of 32 trips into the red zone this season, so this isn’t a top red-zone unit. Also, it stands to reason that a backup quarterback will probably struggle to get the ball into the end zone in the scoring area. The Packers need to find an advantage inside the 20 on Sunday.

Turnovers

Last year’s playoff game turned on a giveaway and ended on a giveaway. Jordan Love and the Packers must protect the football on Sunday. The 49ers are starting a backup quarterback and might need short fields to score, so it’ll be imperative that Brandon Allen is facing 70 or more yards every time he gets the football. Love made one bad throw last week and it cost the Packers. He must recognize the situation on every drop back Sunday — a throwaway or a sack or a punt isn’t a terrible result. Note: the 49ers are 1-3 when they fail to get multiple takeaways this season. If the Packers play a clean game on Sunday, they likely win.

Facing 59

The Packers will welcome a familiar face to Lambeau Field on Sunday: linebacker De’Vondre Campbell. The 2021 All-Pro wasn’t particularly happy with the way his final season in Green Bay played out and was excited to join the 49ers, but he’s struggled in 2024. Teams are attacking him in coverage, and he’s missed a team-high 11 tackles. Can the Packers find ways of putting Campbell in tough situations? Josh Jacobs and Tucker Kraft need to be in attack mode when facing No. 59 on Sunday.

Prediction: Packers 23, 49ers 12 (5-5)

Just win baby. As satisfying as it would be for the Packers to take down the mighty 49ers at full strength, any kind of win is an excellent result on Sunday. This is a golden opportunity for the Packers to increase their playoff odds significantly while severely damaging a team that has knocked them out of the playoffs during three of the last five seasons. The 49ers are reeling and shorthanded and hanging on for dear life in the NFC playoff race. Sure, a commanding and comfortable win would be nice, and it’s certainly possible the Packers will produce one against a backup quarterback. But I’m reminded of last November, when the Packers faced another reeling NFC West team starting a backup quarterback at Lambeau Field — and Matt LaFleur’s team grinded their way to a comfortable but mostly unaesthetic 20-3 win over the Rams. I won’t be surprised if Sunday plays out in a similar fashion. The 49ers’ backs are against the wall, so an inspired effort is likely. But it won’t be enough against a nearly full-strength Packers team that smells blood in the water.

Packers vs. Bears: 5 things to watch and a prediction for Week 11

Five things to watch and a prediction for the Packers’ Week 11 showdown with the Bears.

The Green Bay Packers (6-3) are making the short trip south to Chicago to take on the Bears (4-5) coming out of the bye on Sunday at Soldier Field.

The Packers have won 10 straight games in the series and are preparing to play a Bears team that has lost three straight games after a 4-2 start. Can the Packers continue the win streak and keep the Bears reeling?

Here are five things to watch and a prediction for Week 11:

First-year vs. first overall

Sunday will be the first of potentially many matchups between Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley and Bears quarterback Caleb Williams. The rookie has struggled over the last month and is now dealing with a mid-week playcaller change. Can Hafley find ways of disrupting Williams — an improvisor who is struggling to find completions and running himself into sacks — or will the first overall pick embrace the move away from Shane Waldron and show signs of life in his first taste of the Packers-Bears rivalry? Don’t be surprised if Hafley sends athletic linebackers Quay Walker and Edgerrin Cooper after Williams in obvious passing situations.

Red zone spotlight

The Packers spent the bye week trying to figure out what has gone wrong in the red zone. Their first test coming out of the bye? The Bears’ No. 1 ranked red zone defense. Chicago has allowed only 10 red-zone touchdowns this season. It will be interesting to see if Jordan Love — who was a full participant at practice this week — can move around better and create a big moment or two in the red zone this week. Extending plays inside the 20 is usually important for creating touchdowns in condensed areas. The Packers must avoid the self-inflicted errors — think penalties and drops — in the red zone on Sunday.

Protecting the football

Much has been made of Jordan Love’s 10 interceptions in seven starts before the bye. It’s a multi-faceted problem, but one that needs to be corrected over the second half of the season. The Bears — with eight interceptions and 16 total takeaways this season — should provide a decent test of Love’s ability to protect the football. And he needs to pass the test for the Packers to get out of Soldier Field with a win — all four of Chicago’s victories this season came when the defense produced at least two takeaways. Playing a clean game has to be one of the keys to victory for LaFleur’s team on Sunday.

Run game vs. Bears front

The Bears will be without massive run-stuffing defensive tackle Andrew Billings, and edge rusher Montez Sweat is dealing with an ankle injury. Teams are averaging 4.8 yards per rush against the Bears defense this season, so expect to see Matt LaFleur throw the kitchen sink at Chicago in the run game on Sunday. While Jordan Love caught fire down the stretch last season, don’t forget how important the run game was to the offense’s hot streak. In the season finale win over the Bears in January, Aaron Jones rushed for 111 yards This could be a heavy Josh Jacobs game on Sunday.

Passing game

The easiest way for the Packers to go from good to great down the stretch is improvement in the passing game. Will Jordan Love be more accurate and more mobile with knee and groin injuries behind him? Will the Packers start catching passes at a higher percentage? Can the play-action passing game take off? Can Dontayvion Wicks rebound and become a reliable weapon again? Will Christian Watson get more involved? Little improvements in all these areas would create the type of big progression that could turn the Packers into a powerhouse. The first chance for on-field progression coming out of the bye is Sunday.

Prediction: Packers 22, Bears 13 (4-5)

Like the past 10 games in this series, I’m going with the Packers to win straight up and cover the spread. Matt LaFleur’s team has the look of a contender and is mostly healthy coming out of the bye, while the Bears are making big, desperate changes to revive what could be a dead first season under a rookie quarterback. This is a game the Packers need to take control of early and finish off late. I won’t be surprised if it’s a grind, considering the strength of the Bears passing and red zone defense, but the Packers should be able to run the football and pressure the rookie quarterback into a few sacks or mistakes. The guess here is the Packers move the ball consistently but have to settle for a few short field goals, keeping the Bears in the game. And it wouldn’t be a Packers-Bears game if a late interception didn’t seal the deal.

Packers vs. Jaguars: 5 things to watch and a prediction for Week 8

Five things to watch and a prediction for the Packers’ Week 8 showdown with the Jaguars.

The Green Bay Packers (5-2) will attempt to run the win streak to four games when Matt LaFleur’s team takes on the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5) on Sunday at EverBank Stadium.

The Jaguars have won two of the last three games and are returning home after a two-week stay in London. Leading a talented but inconsistent offense is quarterback Trevor Lawrence, the first overall pick in the 2021 draft. Leading a talented but drastically underperforming defense are top picks Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen.

Can the Packers go down to Florida and get a road win after an emotional home win last week?

Here are five things to watch and a prediction for Week 8:

Former Packers

Expect to see a couple of former Packers draft picks on the field for Jacksonville. Tight end Josiah Deguara rarely plays on offense but is a core special teamer, while defensive back Darnell Savage has played both deep safety and in the slot for Jacksonville’s secondary. The Jaguars also have offensive lineman Cole Van Lanen, another Packers draft pick, on the roster. Sunday will be a reunion for a few Packers specialists, too. Long snapper Matt Orzech (2019) and Brandon McManus (2023) both previously played for the Jaguars. Of course, Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson was a long-time backup behind Brett Favre in Green Bay.

Follow up performance

Last week, the Packers defense smothered C.J. Stroud, one of the NFL’s top young quarterbacks. Does Jeff Hafley’s group have an encore in store for Trevor Lawrence? A devastating pass rush combined with coverage downfield to hold Stroud — who was without Nico Collins — to only 86 passing yards. The challenge might be more difficult against a healthy Jaguars offense featuring impressive rookie Brian Thomas Jr. and several veteran weapons. The Packers defense continues to ascend, and no one in Green Bay wants to see a letdown performance. Protecting against the deep ball will be important.

Interception spotlight

Much has been made about Jordan Love’s eight interceptions. Some have been bad luck. Others have been the result of over-aggressiveness. Sunday’s trip to Jacksonville is an interesting matchup of an aggressive quarterback against a struggling defense that has just one pick all season. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown 16 touchdown passes and are averaging 8.0 yards per attempt against the Jaguars this season. Can Love take advantage against one of the NFL’s worst passing defenses?

Pass protection conundrum

The Jaguars have two talented edge rushers in Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen, which has led defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen to be blitz-avoidant this season. The Jaguars rank last in blitz percentage, but there’s a problem: Jacksonville is also pressuring quarterbacks at a below average rate. Will Nielsen send extra rushers against Jordan Love, who has struggled against the blitz at times this season? Regardless of blitz rate, Sunday’s matchup is another good test for offensive tackles Rasheed Walker and Zach Tom. The Packers also listed center Josh Myers as questionable to play with a wrist injury, so a shuffle could be coming up front.

Another RB test

The Packers have allowed 90 or more rushing yards to Saquon Barkley (109 yards), Jonathan Taylor (103), Aaron Jones (93), Kyren Williams (102) and Joe Mixon (115) during the first seven weeks. It’s been a gauntlet of running backs facing the Packers, and Sunday brings another big test in the form of Tank Bigsby, who rushed for 126 yards last week and is averaging 6.1 yards per carry this season. He’s been a tackle-breaking machine in 2024. The Packers might not have Quay Walker, who is working through the concussion protocol. Can the Packers keep Bigsby from controlling the game on the ground? Mixon nearly willed the Texans’ struggling offense to a win last week in Green Bay.

Prediction: Packers 30, Jaguars 20 (3-4)

In many ways, the Jaguars look more talented on paper than the AFC South-leading Texans, especially considering all the injuries Houston was dealing with during the trip to Green Bay last week. The Packers say they aren’t taking this trip to Jacksonville lightly, but they have to prove it Sunday. This is an important test for a young but maturing team — can you go on the road and take care of business against what appears to be an inferior opponent, especially after an emotional home win last Sunday? Games against the Giants and Panthers late last year were disappointing but also immature performances. The difference in 2024? Jeff Hafley’s aggressive style on defense, and the blossoming confidence of Jordan Love and the offense. I think the Packers show why they are a different level of contender with a commanding performance on the road.

Packers vs. Texans: 5 things to watch and a prediction for Week 7

Five things to watch and a prediction for the Packers’ Week 7 showdown with the Texans.

Lambeau Field will be the setting for Sunday’s highly anticipated showdown between the Green Bay Packers (4-2) and Houston Texans (5-1). The two trendy Super Bowl picks entering the 2024 season are hitting cruising altitude — the Packers have won back-to-back games, while the AFC South-leading Texans are riding a three-game win streak.

Can Matt LaFleur’s team score a signature early season win against one of the ascending AFC teams?

Here are five things to watch and a prediction for Week 7:

Another new kicker

After six weeks of the Brayden Narveson experiment, the Packers pulled the plug. But instead of rolling the dice with another rookie at kicker, the Packers brought aboard veteran Brandon McManus, who brings 10 years of kicking experience to Green Bay. Both general manager Brian Gutekunst and special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia like that McManus has been “through the fire” as a kicker, both in terms of pressure kicks and kicks in various climates. McManus will get his first chance to kick for the Packers on Sunday in a big-time game against the Texans. While only an 81.8 percent kicker for his career, McManus has been excellent from inside 50 yards. Everyone in Green Bay is hoping he can stop the kicking carousel for at least the rest of the 2024 season.

Big-time battle on the edges

Keep a close eye on the edges of the offensive line when the Packers have the football because a battle will play out that could decide the contest. Ascending pass-blockers Rasheed Walker and Zach Tom will face their biggest test of the season in Will Anderson Jr. (third overall pick in 2023) and Danielle Hunter (four-time Pro Bowler). The edge rusher duo has 50 total pressures. The Texans need Anderson and Hunter to be game-wreckers because the backend of the defense is going to be missing four of more starters, including two linebackers (Azeez Al-Shaair, Henry To’oTo’o) and two players in the secondary (safety Jimmie Ward, cornerback Kamari Lassiter). If Walker and Tom keep the pair blocked up, Jordan Love and the Packers passing game could pick apart what’s left behind them.

Josh Jacobs and PA passes

Don’t be surprised if the Packers use a heavy dose of Josh Jacobs and the play-action passing game in their attempt to unlock a stingy but injury-plagued defense on Sunday. The Texans have one defensive tackle suspended (Mario Edwards Jr.), another defensive tackle questionable to play (Folorunso Fatukasi), two linebackers who won’t play (Al-Shaair, To’oTo’o) and two excellent run defenders who won’t play (Ward, Lassiter). Matt LaFleur should make the patched together Texans defense prove they can stop the run early and often. And the play-action passing game built off the run could provide a few decisive plays. Consider this: the Texans have allowed five touchdown passes and a passer rating of 126.4 against play-action passes this season, while Jordan Love has four touchdown passes (including one last week) and a passer rating of 132.1 when using play-action in 2024, per Next Gen Stats. Add it all up, and expect 20 or more carries for Jacobs and a few shot plays down the field from Love.

Pressuring Stroud

Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud is the rare quarterback who can thrive under pressure. In fact, he’s completing 61 percent of passes and averaging 9.4 yards per attempt under pressure this season — insane numbers for a quarterback. Stroud is excellent at creating an extra half-second to throw inside a disrupted pocket, and he’ll still attack down the field when pressured. Maybe the Packers can force him into a poor decision or two. Just keep in mind: Stroud has thrown only nine career interceptions on over 700 career attempts. Getting takeaways isn’t going to be easy against Stroud on Sunday.

Elite QB showdown

Elite quarterback play should be expected at Lambeau Field on Sunday. Jordan Love leads all players in touchdown passes since the start of the 2023 season, while Stroud ranks fourth in passer rating. Love threw four touchdown passes against the Cardinals and is heating up in a big way following an early season knee injury. Stroud is down his top target (Nico Collins, injured reserve) but has been consistently accurate (all six games above 63 percent completions) and efficient (five games with passer rating over 90.0.). In big games, quarterback play usually makes the difference. Sunday at Lambeau Field should be no different.

Prediction: Packers 27, Texans 24 (2-4)

The Texans have a top quarterback (C.J. Stroud), a productive and versatile running back (Joe Mixon), a Packers-killing receiver (Stefon Diggs), a veteran and cohesive offensive line, two dominant edge rushers (Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter), a legit top cornerback (Derek Stingley Jr.) and a reliable special teams group. So while DeMeco Ryans’ team is banged up, especially on the defensive side, there’s no taking lightly the challenge of facing the Texans — who have won nine of their last 12 regular season games — on Sunday. Still, it’s hard not to like the Packers in this matchup. Jordan Love’s offense is healthy and starting to catch fire, and they have the playmakers to challenge where the Texans are hurting defensively. And not facing Nico Collins is a big help for Jeff Hafley’s group. I expect a back and forth showdown, but I’d also expect the Texans’ absences to show up in a couple of big spots down the stretch. Packers by a field goal (maybe a game winner from the new kicker?) over the Texans at Lambeau.

Packers vs. Cardinals: 5 things to watch and a prediction for Week 6

Five things to watch and a prediction for the Packers’ Week 6 showdown with the Cardinals.

The Green Bay Packers (3-2) are back at home and set to host the Arizona Cardinals (2-3) on Sunday at Lambeau Field.

One of these two teams will exit Week 6 with a two-game winning streak. The Packers took down the Rams in Los Angeles last week, while the Cardinals came from the behind to beat the 49ers in San Francisco.

Can Matt LaFleur’s team find consistency and create some much-needed momentum entering a key stretch of the season?

Here are five things to watch and a prediction for Week 6:

All eyes on the pass rush

The Packers’ inconsistent pass-rush will be in the spotlight against Kyler Murray, a dynamic playmaker who can extend plays and create off-schedule. The challenge will be keeping him in the pocket and preventing the improvisational moments that create so many explosive plays for the Cardinals offense. Condensing the pocket without getting too far up field or allowing escape routes will be key. The Packers have to walk the fine line between disrupting the quarterback and inviting off-schedule plays. With past experience against Jalen Hurts and Anthony Richardson, the Packers know how to rush an athletic quarterback and limit running opportunities.

Love to Wicks

The Packers offense needs to cut down on penalties, but another key to unlocking the potential of the passing game is the connection between Jordan Love and Dontayvion Wicks. Both players are too talented for this current level of disconnect to continue. Love needs to be more accurate, and Wicks must finish more plays. Could this be the week it happens? Wicks is a master separator, and the Cardinals defense ranks 31st in separation allowed per target in 2024, per Next Gen Stats. A breakout game from Love and Wicks could power a breakout game from the passing game overall.

Can the takeaways continue?

The Packers have multiple takeaways in all five games and rank first in the NFL with 14 total takeaways entering Week 6. Can the takeaway party continue a team that has generally protected the football this season? Kyler Murray has thrown only two interceptions, and he ranks ninth best in turnover-worthy play percentage this season. At some point this season, the Packers defense will need to get stops consistently without relying on takeaways. Maybe Sunday’s visit from Murray and the Cardinals is an opportunity to prove capable.

All-Pro vs. top pick

The potential return of Jaire Alexander could provide an excellent 1-on-1 matchup when the Cardinals have the football. Alexander, a two-time All-Pro, would see plenty of first-round pick Marvin Harrison Jr., who leads the Cardinals in targets, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. The rookie receiver is big, understands leverage within routes and has big-time ability in contested catch situation. Returning Alexander on Sunday could help the Packers take away one of Kyler Murray’s top targets in the passing game.

Packers pass pro

The Cardinals are coming into Week 6 ranked 31st in pressure rate, per Next Gen Stats. Arizona’s defensive front lacks a game-changer and is struggling to affect the quarterback. The Packers added left tackle Rasheed Walker to the injury report with a knee injury, potentially creating an issue. But Sunday’s matchup should be an opportunity for the Packers to keep Jordan Love well protected in the passing game. In fact, Matt LaFleur’s team should probably dominate the line of scrimmage when the Packers have the ball.

Prediction: Packers 31, Cardinals 24 (1-4)

The Cardinals are battle-tested after facing the Bills, Lions and 49ers in the first five weeks, and you can bet Jonathan Gannon’s team is flying high after a dominant second half powered a comeback win in San Francisco last week. Add in the play of Kyler Murray, who can create through chaos, and the Cardinals are a pesky team that can’t be overlooked. I expect a back-and-forth game, but I also expect the Packers passing game to start breaking out. The Cardinals are one of the worst pass-rushing teams in football, and there are weaknesses all over the secondary. Jordan Love should play from comfortable pockets. Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson could both return. It’s time for the Packers to realize potential. The breakout game is coming, and I won’t be surprised if it arrives Sunday.

Packers vs. Rams: 5 things to watch and a prediction for Week 5

Five things to watch and a prediction for the Packers’ Week 5 showdown with the Rams.

The up and down Green Bay Packers will attempt to find the start of some stability out west when Matt LaFleur’s team goes to Los Angeles to play the struggling Rams at SoFi Stadium on Sunday.

The Packers are 2-2, with wins over two AFC South foes and a pair of losses to NFC contenders. A rocky start to the year — highlighted by Jordan Love’s knee injury — needs to smooth out entering this stretch. The Rams, while quarterbacked by Matthew Stafford and coached by Sean McVay, are 1-3, and the team’s one win required an unlikely comeback.

No team — especially with championship pedigree like the Rams — can be overlooked. But this is a game the Packers need to win on the road.

Here are five things to watch and a prediction for Week 5:

Receiver situation

Jayden Reed looks like a star. Christian Watson has an ankle injury and likely won’t play. Dontayvion Wicks is an elite separator but struggling to finish catches. Romeo Doubs missed practices on Thursday and Friday due to a mysterious off-the-field situation. There are a lot of moving parts at wide receiver for Jordan Love and the Packers. With Watson and Doubs both doubtful to play, the Packers will need more from Wicks, Bo Melton and Malik Heath on Sunday. Melton stepped up as a pass-catcher to end last season and has legitimate speed, and Heath could be an important blocker for a run-based offensive plan. Will the Doubs situation be a distraction for the Packers passing game?

Walker vs. Verse

A matchup of young, ascending players at premium positions to watch Sunday: Packers left tackle Rasheed Walker against Rams edge rusher Jared Verse. Walker, while penalty prone early on, has been excellent as a pass protector (5th in pass block win rate, per ESPN). Verse, a first-round pick, is arguably the top rookie pass-rusher. He has 17 pressures and a high pass-rush win rate (8th in pass rush win rate) through four games. They’ll be facing off on most passing snaps on Sunday. Can Walker keep Verse out of the pocket? If protected, opportunities to attack a shaky Rams secondary is possible for Jordan Love down the field. The Rams front is probably underrated — Verse, Kobie Turner, Byron Young and Braden Fiske are a young and disruptive front four.

Rushing battle

Without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua available, the Rams’ top offensive weapon is running back Kyren Williams, who leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns and has a rushing success rate over 50 percent entering Week 5. The Rams offensive line is still settling in, but they rank third in run block win rate. Can the Packers stop Williams and the run game on early downs, forcing Matthew Stafford into obvious passing situations? On offense, don’t be surprised if this is a heavy Josh Jacobs/Emanuel Wilson gameplan. The Rams have allowed 130 or more rushing yards in all four games this season, and Rams opponents are averaging 5.0 yards per rush. Even the Bears were able to run the ball on the Rams. The Packers could lean on the Rams front and drain the life from the opponent’s pass-rushing potential on Sunday.

Love’s encore

The Packers turned the ball over four times last week, including three via Jordan Love interceptions. In his first game back, Love looked a little rusty early, and it certainly wasn’t easy facing Brian Flores’ heavy blitz and disguise scheme after missing two weeks with a knee injury. Expect Love to bounce back on Sunday. The Rams have only three total takeaways in 2024, including just one interception. In fact, opposing quarterbacks have thrown eight touchdown passes and only one pick in four games against the Rams this season. This matchup should be a good opportunity for Love to play his most efficient and mistake-free game of the year. The Rams rank last in passing yards allowed per attempt (9.1) and second to last in passer rating allowed (122.7) in 2024.

Explosive plays

The Packers lead the NFL in explosive plays through four games. While somewhat inconsistent down to down and even penalty-prone at times, the Packers have created scoring opportunities time and time again with explosive plays, both in the run and pass game. Can the Rams’ struggling defense keep the Packers from adding more explosive plays to their league-leading total? One other factor to consider: the Rams are bottom half of the league in the red zone on defense. Is this the week the Packers pair explosive plays with finish in the red zone?

Prediction: Packers 30, Rams 20 (0-4)

My weekly predictions have been the equivalent of falling behind 28-0 in the first half. Like the Packers last week, I desperately need a layup to get back on track. Can the Rams provide something resembling a muffed punt inside the 10-yard line? In many ways, the Rams look like an ideal opponent — Sean McVay’s team is struggling to protect the passer, the team’s top two receivers are out, and the Rams rank 31st in scoring defense thanks to a struggling run defense and iffy secondary. Can the Packers take advantage? Love’s passing game looks ready to explode, even with a few question marks at receiver to end the week, and you can bet the pass-rush will want to bounce back after a slow start. Add in the environment at SoFi Stadium, which could be majority Packers fans, and Matt LaFleur’s team should get a win. The only caveat is the potential distraction of Romeo Doubs’ absences. The Packers can’t let whatever is going on there to spill into Sunday’s performance overall.

Packers vs. Vikings: 5 things to watch and a prediction for Week 4

Five things to watch and a prediction for the Packers’ Week 4 showdown with the Vikings.

Lambeau Field will be the setting for a key early season showdown in the NFC North. In Week 4, the Green Bay Packers — who have won back-to-back games — are hosting the undefeated Minnesota Vikings in the first divisional matchup for both teams.

Both of these teams are surprising in a good way to start the season. The Packers have won back-to-back games with backup Malik Willis under center, while the Vikings have two of the best wins of the season over the San Francisco 49ers and Houston Texans.

The winner of Sunday’s battle will get an important early advantage in the race to be the champion of the NFC North, which looks like one of the NFL’s best divisions in 2024.

Here are five things to watch and a prediction for Week 4:

Return of 33

This storyline has been beaten to death, but it’s still an important one. Aaron Jones coming back to Green Bay isn’t just the return of some over-the-hill former star. In three games with the Vikings, Jones has 325 total yards, two games with 100 or more total yards and two touchdowns for an offense that ranks third in scoring. He looks explosive, both as a runner (5.4 yards per carry) and receiver. Can the Packers contain his slashing style? The Vikings split reps and touches at running back between Jones and Ty Chandler, but you can bet Minnesota will give the Packers former running back a few extra touches on Sunday. Dating back to last season and including the postseason, Jones has seven games with 100 or more total yards in his last eight. As Matt LaFleur said, he is a “problem.”

Pressuring Darnold

Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold has been one of the NFL’s best passers under pressure in 2024. Despite being under pressure on roughly 40 percent of his dropbacks, Darnold has thrown an NFL-high four touchdown passes without a turnover-worthy play under pressure this season. The Packers must keep Darnold disrupted in the pocket and hope regression to the mean arrives. Pressured quarterbacks are the most inconsistent and turnover-prone quarterbacks, and no one should expect Darnold to be this good against pressure all season. The Vikings have two excellent offensive tackles, but there are big issues on the inside, particularly at center (Garrett Bradbury, 10 pressures allowed) and right guard (Ed Ingram, 10 pressures allowed). Devonte Wyatt and Kenny Clark need to be disruptive.

Testing a top run defense

The Vikings are allowing only 3.6 yards per attempt against the run to start this season, but it’s worth noting that Brian Flores’ defense has faced the Giants (no Saquon Barkley), 49ers (no Christian McCaffrey) and Texans (no Joe Mixon) to start the season. The Packers are the No. 1 rushing offense in football and Josh Jacobs is healthy and rolling. In response to losing Jordan Love to injury, Matt LaFleur has devised a deep, complex run game that features a good mix of misdirection and power. Expect him to lean on the run regardless of who is playing quarterback Sunday. The Packers must stay on schedule on early downs and avoid the obvious passing situations that Flores loves. A heavy dose of Jacobs, Emanuel Wilson and even Jayden Reed and other receivers in the run game is likely.

Takeaways

The Packers have generated three takeaways in three straight games to start 2024 and rank first in the NFL with nine total takeaways. The Vikings have generated two takeaways in three straight games to start 2024 and rank third in the NFL with six total takeaways. Winning the ball is a priority every week, and when two teams are so good at taking away the ball, the turnover margin becomes the biggest winning factor. Can Jordan Love or Malik Willis keep the ball protected against a Vikings defense that has confused Brock Purdy and C.J. Stroud the last two weeks? And can Jeff Hafley’s defense force Sam Darnold into a bad decision or two? No one should be surprised if a turnover ends up being the game’s biggest play on Sunday.

Facing J.J.

The much-anticipated matchup of Jaire Alexander vs. Justin Jefferson might not happen. Alexander has a pair of lower-body injuries and is questionable to play. Even if Alexander isn’t available, the Packers must find ways of keeping Jefferson from taking over the game. The challenge is amplified by the Packers’ injury situation at cornerback (Carrington Valentine is doubtful to play) and the return of 2023 first-round pick Jordan Addison. Sam Darnold has distributed the football to a variety of targets without forcing it to Jefferson, so the Packers can’t over-focus on Jefferson and let others go wild. Finding the right mix is the big challenge for first-year defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley.

Prediction: Packers 24, Vikings 23 (0-3)

After two weeks of doubting the Malik Willis-Matt LaFleur magic, we’re back on win-predicting train — regardless of who is playing quarterback on Sunday. The Packers have proven capable of four key winning factors: creating explosive plays, generating turnovers, protecting the quarterback and disrupting the opponent’s quarterback. LaFleur’s team probably needs to do all four to take down the unbeaten Vikings. Protecting the quarterback against Brian Flores’ defense will be a challenge, but if the Packers can handle business pre-snap and at the line of scrimmage, explosive plays could be abundant. And there are good matchups for the Packers defensive front against the Vikings offensive line. One takeaway or explosive play provides the difference for the Packers late in a one-point win.