Turnovers remain one of the biggest winning factors in football, so it’s hardly surprising that the turnover battle looks like it could be a deciding factor when Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers play Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Divisional Round on Saturday.
Coach Matt LaFleur calls the turnover battle “winning the ball.” The Packers must find a way to win the ball to upset the 49ers.
Consider the following…
— the Packers are 6-1 when they don’t turn the ball over this season. Three of the team’s biggest wins — vs. the Chiefs, Lions and Cowboys — came when the Packers finished with zero turnovers.
— The Packers are 1-6 when Jordan Love throws an interception. The only win? A massive fourth-quarter comeback against the Saints.
— The Packers are 5-1 when they get two or more takeaways. Included in the five wins are big wins over the Chiefs, Vikings and Cowboys.
— The 49ers are 8-0 when they don’t turn the ball over this season and 4-5 when they turn it over at least once.
— The 49ers are 9-1 when they create at least two takeaways and 3-4 when they get one or fewer.
— The 49ers are 9-1 when they win the turnover battle. The only loss was a fluky defeat to the Browns when they missed a late field goal.
— The 49ers are 10-0 when Brock Purdy does not throw an interception and 2-5 when he throws one or more, including an 0-3 mark when he throws two or more interceptions.
A few other things to consider:
— The 49ers led the NFL in interceptions during the regular season with 22. They have five players with multiple interceptions and 10 players with at least one interception.
— Love has thrown one interception in his last nine games. From Week 11 on, Love has only seven “turnover-worthy plays,” per PFF, or less than one per game. The majority have been fumbles instead of risky passes.
— The Packers delivered only 18 takeaways in 2023, including just seven interceptions. But Jaire Alexander had an interception setting up a touchdown and Darnell Savage produced a game-changing pick-six in the win over the Cowboys.
— Purdy has thrown six interceptions since Week 10, but PFF charted only four “turnover worthy plays,” the fewest among qualified quarterbacks. He was a bit unlucky on a few turnovers down the stretch.
— Purdy fumbled six times but lost only two in 2023. Love fumbled nine times and lost three.
— Under pressure, Purdy has 11 turnover worthy plays (11th most) and a turnover worthy play percentage of 5.4 (18th). Love has nine turnover worthy plays (9th most) and a turnover worthy play percentage of 4.2 (10th), so he’s actually been a little better at protecting the ball under duress this season.
— The 49ers get their hands on a lot of footballs. They batted 11 passes, defensed 42 passes and forced incompletions on 54 attempts. Charvarius Ward led the NFL with 23 passes defensed in 2023, and his five interceptions ranked tied for fourth.
— Per pro-football-reference.com, the 49ers were fifth in passes defensed and third in interception percentage. The Packers ranked 23rd in passes defensed and 31st in interception percentage.
— The Packers had more defensive touchdowns, 3-1. Green Bay got pick-sixes from Quay Walker and Savage and a fumble return from Jonathan Owens. The 49ers got a pick-six from Ward.
