A couple ways 49ers can miraculously still win NFC West

The San Francisco 49ers playoff chances are slim, but there’s still a (narrow) path to them winning the NFC West.

It appears on the surface like the San Francisco 49ers hunt for an NFC West title is over following a second consecutive blowout loss in Week 13.

The Buffalo Bills annihilated the 49ers 35-10 at Highmark Stadium just one week after the Green Bay Packers thumped them 38-10. Those two losses were preceded by a loss to the Seattle Seahawks, and after 12 games the 49ers are at 5-7 and alone in last place in the NFC West.

As the injuries pile up alongside the losses, it’s hard to believe there’s any real chance the 49ers find a way to win the NFC West for a third consecutive season.  Alas, there is a chance.

The 49ers could win out and finish 10-7 while the other clubs stumble down the stretch to worse finishes. San Francisco could even lose one of their final five to finish 9-8 while the rest of the division dukes it out to 8-9 finishes or worse.

But what if they wind up tied?

Here are a couple of different ways that could look:

San Francisco 49ers (5-7)

Week 14 vs. Chicago Bears: Win
Week 15 vs. Los Angeles Rams: Win
Week 16 at Miami Dolphins: Win
Week 17 vs. Detroit Lions: Loss
Week 18 at Arizona Cardinals: Win

Record: (9-8)

Note: We can flip the Dolphins and Lions games and this still works.

Seattle Seahawks (7-5)

Week 14 at Arizona Cardinals: Loss
Week 15 vs. Green Bay Packers: Loss
Week 16 vs. Minnesota Vikings: Win
Week 17 at Chicago Bears: Win
Week 18 at Los Angeles Rams: Loss

Record: (9-8)

Note: The key for San Francisco is that the Seahawks lose to Arizona and then two of their final four. 

Arizona Cardinals (6-6)

Week 14 vs. Seattle Seahawks: Win
Week 15 vs. New England Patriots: Win
Week 16 at Carolina Panthers: Win
Week 17 at Los Angeles Rams: Loss
Week 18 vs. San Francisco 49ers: Loss

Record: (9-8)

Note: The 49ers just need Arizona to beat Seattle. The rest of them don’t matter.

Los Angeles Rams (6-6)

Week 14 vs. Buffalo Bills: Loss
Week 15 at San Francisco 49ers: Loss
Week 16 at New York Jets: Loss
Week 17 vs. Arizona Cardinals: Win
Week 18 vs. Seattle Seahawks: Win

Record: (8-9)

Note: San Francisco needs the Rams to win those last two NFC West games unless Seattle stumbles and drops two against the NFC North. Then a Seahawks win over the Rams in Week 18 doesn’t affect much. 

In this above situation, the 49ers would win the three-way tiebreaker with the Cardinals and Seahawks because they’d own a 6-6 record in the conference. The three-way tiebreakers in the NFL start at head-to-head matchups, but all the teams split their division games, which also eliminates the division record tiebreaker. They also have the same record in common games with each team landing at 5-5 in their common matchups.

That turns the tiebreaker to conference record where the 49ers would somehow have an edge. San Francisco in this scenario would finish 6-6 against NFC teams, while the Rams and Seahawks would both wrap up at 5-7, lifting the 49ers over both to a home playoff game on wild card weekend as the NFC West champions.

This scenario also works if one of the Seahawks or Cardinals lose an additional game or two and land at 8-9 or worse. San Francisco would still hold tiebreakers over both clubs in a two-team tiebreaker battle.

What about a 4-way tie?

If the Seahawks lose to both the Packers and Vikings, then beat the Rams in Week 18, while the Rams earned victories over the Bills in Week 14 and Jets in Week 16, it would give the 49ers a division win in a four-way tie.

Alas, these scenarios are hyper-specific with not a lot of wiggle room because of the tiebreakers. Still, there’s a modicum of hope for the optimists looking for something to cling to entering Week 14.

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49ers can play spoiler for Bills playoff chances

The San Francisco 49ers have slim playoff hopes of their own, but they can also play spoiler against the Buffalo Bills in Week 13.

The San Francisco 49ers saw their playoff chances plummet following consecutive losses to the Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers.

While the 49ers are still technically in the playoff hunt, their season may be better defined by whether they can play spoiler for other teams. That’s what they’ll be aiming to do Sunday while also trying to keep their own playoff hopes on life support.

Buffalo has dominated a relatively weak AFC East and entered Week 13 with a simple clinching scenario. They needed the Miami Dolphins to lose to the Packers on Thanksgiving night. Green Bay handled business for Buffalo in that one, routing the Dolphins 30-17 at Lambeau Field.

Now the Bills can clinch the AFC East title and a playoff spot by knocking off the 49ers at Highmark Stadium on Sunday night.

While it’s all but a certainty the Bills will eventually wrap up the division, the 49ers should at least draw a little motivation from trying to keep it from happening against them. Not to mention their own slim playoff hopes revolve around winning some games they probably shouldn’t on paper. That starts Sunday in Buffalo where a win would improve the 49ers’ own postseason chances, and delay the Bills’ celebration for at least one more week.

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Which games on Week 13 NFL schedule can help 49ers playoff hopes?

Here are the Week 13 games that impact the 49ers playoff hopes.

The San Francisco 49ers, despite careening toward the abyss of NFL mediocrity, still have a path to the postseason as they enter their Week 13 showdown against the Buffalo Bills.

Yet, thanks to the rest of the NFC West’s tussle with the .500 mark, there’s a clear way for the 49ers to win the division and punch their ticket to the playoffs.

Here are the Week 13 games that will impact the 49ers’ playoff chances and which team the 49ers need to win:

Cardinals (6-5) at Vikings (9-2)

49ers need: A Vikings win. Every NFC West loss is gold for the 49ers.

Spread: Vikings (-3.5)

Seahawks (6-5) at Jets (3-8)

49ers need: A Jets win. See above.

Spread: Seahawks (-2)

Titans (3-8) at Commanders (7-5)

49ers need: A Commanders loss, although the 49ers can render Washington’s involvement moot by stringing together wins while the other clubs in the division start stacking up a few losses. Washington is the No. 7 seed entering Week 13.

Spread: Commanders (-5.5)

Buccaneers (5-6) at Panthers (3-8)

49ers need: The 49ers have a head-to-head tiebreaker on Tampa Bay, but another 5-6 team getting a loss is helpful, so a Panthers win is ideal for San Francisco.

Spread: Buccaneers (-6)

Rams (5-6) at Saints (4-7)

49ers need: Another NFC West game means another game the 49ers need the NFC West foe to lose. A Rams win wouldn’t be terrible since it would further remove New Orleans from the conversation, but the NFC West loss is preferred.

Spread: Rams (-2.5)

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Can Packers win all-important turnover battle vs. 49ers in divisional round?

Winning the ball will be a huge part of any winning blueprint for the Packers in the NFC Divisional Round against the 49ers.

Turnovers remain one of the biggest winning factors in football, so it’s hardly surprising that the turnover battle looks like it could be a deciding factor when Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers play Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Divisional Round on Saturday.

Coach Matt LaFleur calls the turnover battle “winning the ball.” The Packers must find a way to win the ball to upset the 49ers.

Consider the following…

— the Packers are 6-1 when they don’t turn the ball over this season. Three of the team’s biggest wins — vs. the Chiefs, Lions and Cowboys — came when the Packers finished with zero turnovers.

— The Packers are 1-6 when Jordan Love throws an interception. The only win? A massive fourth-quarter comeback against the Saints.

— The Packers are 5-1 when they get two or more takeaways. Included in the five wins are big wins over the Chiefs, Vikings and Cowboys.

— The 49ers are 8-0 when they don’t turn the ball over this season and 4-5 when they turn it over at least once.

— The 49ers are 9-1 when they create at least two takeaways and 3-4 when they get one or fewer.

— The 49ers are 9-1 when they win the turnover battle. The only loss was a fluky defeat to the Browns when they missed a late field goal.

— The 49ers are 10-0 when Brock Purdy does not throw an interception and 2-5 when he throws one or more, including an 0-3 mark when he throws two or more interceptions.

A few other things to consider:

— The 49ers led the NFL in interceptions during the regular season with 22. They have five players with multiple interceptions and 10 players with at least one interception.

— Love has thrown one interception in his last nine games. From Week 11 on, Love has only seven “turnover-worthy plays,” per PFF, or less than one per game. The majority have been fumbles instead of risky passes.

— The Packers delivered only 18 takeaways in 2023, including just seven interceptions. But Jaire Alexander had an interception setting up a touchdown and Darnell Savage produced a game-changing pick-six in the win over the Cowboys.

— Purdy has thrown six interceptions since Week 10, but PFF charted only four “turnover worthy plays,” the fewest among qualified quarterbacks. He was a bit unlucky on a few turnovers down the stretch.

— Purdy fumbled six times but lost only two in 2023. Love fumbled nine times and lost three.

— Under pressure, Purdy has 11 turnover worthy plays (11th most) and a turnover worthy play percentage of 5.4 (18th). Love has nine turnover worthy plays (9th most) and a turnover worthy play percentage of 4.2 (10th), so he’s actually been a little better at protecting the ball under duress this season.

— The 49ers get their hands on a lot of footballs. They batted 11 passes, defensed 42 passes and forced incompletions on 54 attempts. Charvarius Ward led the NFL with 23 passes defensed in 2023, and his five interceptions ranked tied for fourth.

— Per pro-football-reference.com, the 49ers were fifth in passes defensed and third in interception percentage. The Packers ranked 23rd in passes defensed and 31st in interception percentage.

— The Packers had more defensive touchdowns, 3-1. Green Bay got pick-sixes from Quay Walker and Savage and a fumble return from Jonathan Owens. The 49ers got a pick-six from Ward.

3 issues the 49ers must address ahead of the postseason

The 49ers are rolling and playing perhaps the best football in the NFL, but they need to clean up a couple things heading into the postseason. Nicholas McGee (@nicholasmcgee24) broke it all down here:

The 49ers will head into next weekend’s Wild Card matchup with no shortage of confidence having reeled off 10 successive wins to end the regular season.

San Francisco is the second seed in the NFC and the 38-13 thumping of the Cardinals in Week 18 was another demonstration of how dangerous the Niners can be in the postseason.

Yet the 49ers’ coaching staff will be eager to avoid confidence turning into complacency and San Francisco, despite the emphatic nature of its win in the regular-season finale, does have things to clean up.

The Niners are a team without any significant holes, but, as we detail here, there are some emerging issues that will need to be addressed if they are to go deep into the postseason as many expect.

10 plays that defined 49ers’ run to NFC championship

These 10 plays define the #49ers’ second-half run to the NFC championship.

The 2021 season got off to an abysmal start for the 49ers. They lost four in a row after winning their first two, and capped the first half of the year with a 31-17 loss at home to Colt McCoy and the Cardinals. After a dreadful first nine weeks, the 49ers flipped their season on its head and won seven of their final nine regular season contests before chalking up a pair of postseason wins to punch their ticket to the NFC championship game.

A host of factors played a role in the 49ers’ sudden turnaround. They got healthier, some balls bounced their way, and overall they started executing at a higher level than they had in the first half of the year.

There were some moments and plays over the course of their bounce back to relevance that stand out above the others though. We went back through each 49ers game since that loss to the Cardinals and picked out 10 plays that encapsulate San Francisco’s second-half turnaround and jaunt to the NFC championship game.

San Francisco 49ers gear featuring Deebo Samuel and Robbie Gould, NFLPA officially licensed gear by BreakingT

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The San Francisco 49ers will continue on to the NFC Divisional Round and we have some brand new tees and hoodies that can help you represent your favorite team while we make our run to the Super Bowl in Los Angeles.

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How to Watch 49ers vs. Seahawks, NFL Week 17 Live Stream, Schedule, TV Channel, Start Time

Watch 49ers vs. Seahawks Live Online.

In what essentially amounts to being the NFC West championship game for this season, the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks will square-off on Sunday night. With the division title on the line, along with the potential for home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs, the stakes have not been this high for a game between these two teams since their last matchup in the NFC Championship Game.

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49ers vs. Seahawks

  • When: Sunday, December 29
  • Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
  • TV: NBC
  • Live Stream: fuboTV (watch for free)

The San Francisco 49ers (12-3) got a massive win in their last game, securing a 34-31 victory over the Los Angeles Rams with a last-second field goal by Robbie Gould. The Niners were outgained in the game and lost the turnover battle, but they made the plays down the stretch when it counted the most, something that has become a common theme for them throughout the season. If they can make the necessary plays in this game, they could be rewarded with a first-round bye.

Seattle (11-4) lost last weekend in one of the most shocking results of the NFL season, a 27-13 defeat to the Arizona Cardinals. The Seahawks scored the game’s first touchdown, but failed to score another touchdown, settling for two Jason Myers field goals to complete their scoring on the day. Despite facing backup quarterback Brett Hundley for much of the second half due to an injury to Cardinals starter Kyler Murray, the Seahawks could not get themselves in a position to get back into the game and will need to win this week to avoid a wild card slot.

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49ers assert dominance in NFC, stay atop playoff picture

The 49ers are the best team in the NFC, and Sunday proved it.

The 49ers’ spot as the NFC’s top team is no longer in question after they toppled the Packers 37-8 in Week 12. The win allowed them to create separation from Green Bay, and stay a game ahead of the Seahawks and Saints after their wins Sunday.

Here’s what the NFC playoff picture looks like after Sunday’s action:

1. 49ers (10-1)
2. Saints (9-2)
3. Packers (8-3)
4. Cowboys (6-5)
5. Seahawks (9-2)
6. Vikings (8-3)

The Rams are the No. 7 seed at 6-4, but given the level of play in the top six seeds, it’s hard to see them climbing back in. They face the Ravens on Monday Night Football, and a loss could effectively end their season.

San Francisco’s win Sunday over Green Bay was enormous because a loss would’ve knocked the 49ers to the No. 5 seed. Instead, they pounded the Packers and showed why they own the best record in the NFC. While the 49ers’ schedule has been relatively light, they’re dominating teams that’re going to finish below them in the standings. Not to mention their lone loss came in the final seconds of overtime to the Seahawks.

The 49ers are as dominant as their record and plus-169 point differential indicate, and that was on full display Sunday night at Levi’s Stadium.

The race in the conference for a first-round bye and home-field advantage is going to be fascinating. The Packers and Vikings play again in Week 16. The 49ers and Saints play in Week 14, and then San Francisco faces Seattle in the final week of the season.

We may already have the six playoff teams in the NFC, but we’re far from having the order settled with five weeks to go.