Tag: 49ers-Chiefs Props

Super Bowl LIV Prop Betting: First quarter moneyline

Should you make a moneyline bet on the San Francisco 49ers or Kansas City Chiefs to hold a lead after the first quarter of Super Bowl LIV?

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Two of the NFL’s best offenses will square off Sunday in Super Bowl LIV at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. The San Francisco 49ers ranked second in points scored this season, while the Kansas City Chiefs were fifth. Below, we’ll look at which team can get off to the better start in Super Bowl LIV with our best bet for the first-quarter moneyline.

Super Bowl LIV First quarter moneyline odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET.

We all know how good these offenses are, but which team will come out of the gates hotter? According to BetMGM, the first quarter moneyline is -110 for both teams. In other words, the oddsmakers don’t favor either the Chiefs or 49ers to hold the lead after the first 15 minutes.

If you’re going to bet on the first quarter moneyline, though, which team should you take?

Special sports betting line for the big game

Bet $1, WIN $200 (in free bets) if either team scores a touchdown during the big game February 2, 2020. Regardless of the outcome, you win with a touchdown! Bet now.

New customer offer; visit BetMGM for terms and conditions.

The Chiefs enter Super Bowl LIV as 1.5-point favorites against the spread, but as we saw in their first two playoff games, they’ve had to come from behind to earn their victories. Against the Houston Texans, they were down 24-0 early in the second quarter before mounting a huge comeback to win 51-31. The Tennessee Titans held a 10-point lead the following week, but Kansas City erased that deficit, too.

The 49ers, on the other hand, haven’t trailed once in these playoffs and were only tied once (after the opening score). They were tied 7-7 after one quarter against the Minnesota Vikings in the Divisional Round, and they led 7-0 after 15 minutes against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship.

Our best bet: 49ers (-110)

(Photo Credit: Kirby Lee – USA TODAY Sports)

So, based on recent history, the 49ers would look like the wiser bet for the first quarter moneyline. They’ve been more in control than the Chiefs this postseason and there were only four games this season in which they trailed after the first quarter. The Chiefs trailed after the first quarter seven times.

Only three teams were better than the 49ers in the first quarter this season. Their scoring margin in the first 15 minutes was plus-40, scoring 106 points to their opponents’ 66. The Baltimore Ravens, New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers were the only teams better in that department.

The Chiefs, on the other hand, were 12th in first-quarter scoring margin (plus-10). They scored 90 first-quarter points but allowed 80 to their opponents, which was 11th-worst in the NFL.

So if you’re going to wager on the first quarter money line, the 49ers look like a solid bet. They may not put up a ton of points with their ground-and-pound attack, but it’ll take the Chiefs some time to get in a rhythm offensively.

Also see:

Want action on this game or prop bets? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Super Bowl LIV Prop Betting: How many passing yards for Jimmy Garoppolo?

Analyzing Super Bowl LIV prop bet odds, and looking at how many passing yards 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo will compile against the Chiefs.

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The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers meet in Super Bowl LIV Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. Here at SportsbookWire, we have you covered for all your prop betting needs for the big game.

Forget the one-player, one-Over/Under stat total prop bets. Check out the board at BetMGM, and we find four different Super Bowl LIV passing yards totals and their respective odds for 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo.

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 6 p.m. ET.

  • Over 200.5: -250; Under 200.5: +195
  • Over 238.5: -112; Under 238.5: -112
  • Over 300.5: +330; Under 300.5: -435
  • Over 350.5: +1000; Under 350.5: -2500

Of course, Jimmy G’s passing stats – or rather, the lack of them – have been a hot topic this postseason as he’s completed 17-of-27 passes for 208 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Those are two-game totals, mind you, as the Niners have employed a whopping 89-30 run-to-pass-play ratio, throwing the game back to the ground-and-pound 1970s.

With San Francisco ripping off 5.3 yards per rushing attempt and the opposing offenses of the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers mustering only 17 total points through the first three quarters, Garoppolo really hasn’t needed to throw in the postseason, so he hasn’t – plain and simple.

Special sports betting line for the big game

Bet $1, WIN $200 (in free bets) if either team scores a touchdown during the big game February 2, 2020. Regardless of the outcome, you win with a touchdown! Bet now.

New customer offer; visit BetMGM for terms and conditions.

The key question for us in deciding how to wager on this passing-yards prop is figuring out what’s likely to happen when the 49ers defense faces more of an offensive challenge than what it has received thus far in the postseason from Kirk Cousins and a less-than-vintage Aaron Rodgers.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs ranked fifth in the league with an average of 28.2 points per game during the regular season. The Chiefs have gone on to score 86 more points in two AFC playoff wins. With the Chiefs favored by 1.5 points and the game’s point total sitting at 54.5 as of Tuesday, Kansas City’s implied point total Sunday is 28.

(Photo Credit: Kelley L Cox – USA TODAY Sports)

When the opposition has scored even 21 or more points this season (seven games), Garoppolo has averaged 35.1 passing attempts, 24 completions and 295.9 passing yards per outing. He has thrown for at least 248 yards in six of those seven contests (five wins and two losses), including all three of his 300-plus-yard games, and no fewer than 200 in any of them.

Flipping things around, the Niners’ implied point total Sunday is 26.5, and in the 10 games this season, including the two playoff contests, in which KC has surrendered at least 21 points, the Chiefs have allowed an average of 274.4 passing yards. Note this is the average from the opposing quarterbacks and not the team passing yards, which deducts the yardage lost on sacks.

So that brings us to … 

Our best bet: Jimmy Garoppolo Over 238.5 passing yards (-112)

The Niners figure to have a decent amount of success running against a KC defense, which ranked seventh-worst against the run (128.2 yards allowed) during the regular season, but has tightened up during the playoffs in allowing an average of 89.5 yards per contest.

Meanwhile, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and Co. are going to put up points, and Garoppolo is going to have to air it out in an attempt to keep pace. Throwing for at least 239 yards would appear to be a strong bet – my quick and dirty projection has Jimmy G finishing with 285 or so – and if you’re feeling frisky, go for the middle by also banging the Under 300.5 yards, although you’ll have to lay a hefty -435 to do so.

Also see:

Want action on this game or prop bets? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Super Bowl LIV Prop Betting: What will be the first score of the game?

Analyzing Super Bowl LIV prop bets between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs. What will be the first score of the game?

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The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers meet in Super Bowl LIV Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. Below, we look at what the first scoring play will be, based on the sports betting odds and lines at BetMGM for Super Bowl LIV.

Here at SportsbookWire, we have you covered for all your prop betting needs for the big game.

First scoring play, 6-way (including overtime)

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 5 p.m. ET.

  • 49ers field goal: +375
  • 49ers safety: +5000
  • 49ers touchdown: +200
  • Chiefs field goal: +330
  • Chiefs safety: +5500
  • Chiefs touchdown: +190
(Photo Credit: Cary Edmondson – USA TODAY Sports)

 With both teams averaging at least 29.8 points per game, including 6.7 (49ers) and 5.4 (Chiefs) points in the first quarter, predicting the likeliest first score might simply come down to whichever potent offense gets the ball first Sunday in South Beach.

So, on that premise, let us begin by examining each team’s opening offensive possession stats in the 18 contests each has played on the road to Miami (including the postseason):

  • The 49ers have scored points on 11 of 18 opening possessions, tallying seven touchdowns and four field goals. One other first drive ended in a turnover: A Jimmy Garoppolo interception in Week 3 against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
  • The Chiefs have scored on half of their 18 opening offensive drives, notching seven TDs and a pair of field goals. All were in games started by wunderkind QB Patrick Mahomes. Another one of Kansas City’s opening drives ended in a missed 36-yard field-goal attempt and another concluded with a Mahomes interception in Week 14 at the New England Patriots.

Special sports betting line for the big game

Bet $1, WIN $200 (in free bets) if either team scores a touchdown during the big game February 2, 2020. Regardless of the outcome, you win with a touchdown! Bet now.

New customer offer; visit BetMGM for terms and conditions.

Defensively, including the playoffs, San Francisco is giving up an average of 18.8 points per contest, including an average of 4.1 in the first quarter. Kansas City is allowing 20.2 points, with 6.2 coming in the opening quarter.

Breaking it down even further, here’s how each of the Big Game combatants fared on their opening defensive possessions through 18 games:

  • The 49ers have permitted points on only six of their opponents’ first drives (four TDs and two field goals). Two other opposing team opening possessions ended in a fumble and a missed field goal.
  • The Chiefs, meanwhile, have surrendered 10 scores (six TDs and four field goals) on opening drives, including one of each in the playoffs. Three other first drives by foes ended in turnovers, with the KC defense recovering two fumbles and picking off a pass.

Our best bet: 49ers TD (+200)

Despite the 49ers’ superior numbers across the board, as just detailed, and Kansas City’s sluggish starts during the postseason, which have resulted in double-digit second-quarter deficits in each game, the Chiefs are slight favorites to put up the first score Sunday.

Wagers on a 49ers TD or field goal as the first score of Super Bowl LIV will return more than their Kansas City counterparts and, again referencing the probabilities based on this season’s early in-game performances, we’ll go with head coach Kyle Shanahan scripting up an early TD drive for the 49ers as the likeliest first score of Super Bowl LIV.

Also see:

Want action on this game or prop bets? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Super Bowl LIV Prop Betting: Which team will score first?

Analyzing the sports betting odds and chance of the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs to record the first score of Super Bowl LIV.

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The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers meet in Super Bowl LIV Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. Below, we look at which team is most likely to score first, based on the sports betting odds and lines at BetMGM for Super Bowl LIV.

Here at SportsbookWire, we have you covered for all your prop betting needs for the big game.

Which team will record the first score of Super Bowl LIV? (Including overtime, conversions do not count)

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 4:40 p.m. ET.

With both the 49ers (-106) and Chiefs (-115) averaging at least 28 points per contest to rank among the league’s top-five scoring offenses during the regular season, and the game’s Over/Under total being set at 54.5, we’d best start right from the beginning.

Both the 49ers and Chiefs rank among the league’s best in terms of first-quarter scoring, with San Francisco averaging 6.7 points (third overall, including the postseason) and Kansas City averaging 5.4 first-quarter points per game (10th).

Special sports betting line for the big game

Bet $1, WIN $200 (in free bets) if either team scores a touchdown during the big game February 2, 2020. Regardless of the outcome, you win with a touchdown! Bet now.

New customer offer; visit BetMGM for terms and conditions.

Getting even more specific, the 49ers and Chiefs also ranked among the league’s best in terms of first-drive scores during the regular season. The Niners scoring on 10 of their 16 opening possessions (six touchdowns and four field goals). The Chiefs scored on nine of 16 opening drives (seven TDs and two field goals). The 49ers scored a first-quarter TD in each of their two NFC playoff games, with one coming on the opening possession. The Chiefs have scored a total of seven first-quarter points in their two playoff contests with no opening-possession points.

Defensively, both Big Game combatants owned top-10 scoring defenses during the regular season. The Chiefs allowed 19.3 points per game to rank a shade higher than the Niners (19.4). During the playoffs, Kansas City is allowing an average of 25.5 points while the boys from the Bay Area have limited foes to 15 points per outing.

(Photo Credit: Cary Edmondson – USA TODAY Sports)

In the first quarter this season (including the playoffs), the Niners are allowing 4.1 points per contest (11th-fewest in the league) while the Chiefs are surrendering 6.2 (28th). In its two playoff contests, the Chiefs have been outscored 31-7 in the first quarter while San Francisco owns a 14-7 advantage.

On opening defensive possessions, the Chiefs have surrendered scores in 10 of 18 games, allowing six TDs and four field goals. The Niners, meanwhile, have given up points on only six of 18 opening possessions (four TDs and two FGs) for the opposing offense.

Our best bet: 49ers (-106)

Going by the just-digested numbers, we have to give the edge to the Niners, who not only have been more productive offensively early in games – a nod to some strong opening scripts by head coach Kyle Shanahan, arguably the game’s best play-caller – but they have been stingier defensively as well, particularly in the postseason. The Chiefs have dug themselves early-double-digit deficits in each of their two contests.

Strangely, though, Kansas City is the slight favorite here, with bettors having to pay a little more juice when siding with the formidable offensive duo of QB Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid.

Everything considered, however, it’s not wise to wager too much either way on this prop as the winning side may simply be determined by the coin toss and which team takes possession first.

Still, if you must have action here, play the percentages and give the nod to the Niners striking first on the scoreboard in South Beach.

Also see:

Want action on this game or prop bets? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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