Super Bowl 54 Prop Bets: Which team will score 10 points first?

Will the Kansas City Chiefs or San Francisco 49ers score 10 points first in the 2020 Super Bowl? We analyze the best bet around this Super Bowl prop bet

Super Bowl 54 is here and BetMGM Sportsbook has plenty of Super Bowl prop bets for your consideration. Among them is: Which team – San Francisco 49ers or Kansas City Chiefs – will score 10 points first in the 2020 Super Bowl?

The race to hit 10 points is a difficult one for a couple of big reasons – both involving Kansas City.

The gang at BetMGM Sportsbook has San Francisco as a very solid -106 to be the first team to score 10 points, with the Chiefs at -110. There is a reason.

In both of their postseason games, the Chiefs fell behind big early – 14-0 in less than five minutes to the Houston Texans and 10-0 to the Tennessee Titans in slightly more than nine minutes.

Those were both a deep departure from how the Chiefs played in 2019.

The last time during the regular season that Kansas City didn’t win the race to 10 points was in late October against the Green Bay Packers when Chiefs QB Matt Moore was the starting quarterback – a span of eight games. The last time a Patrick Mahomes-led offense took the field and didn’t win the race to 10 was in late September – ironically to the Detroit Lions – which is the span of 11 games.


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Do you go with the recent or the time-honored?

What may be the tie-breaker is that we can likely feel safe in the fact that San Francisco is going to get the ball first.

In their two playoff games, the Chiefs (as would be expected with coin flips) won one and lost one. They lost the flip against Houston and the Texans opted to take the ball and scored a touchdown on a 54-yard passing play. Against Tennessee, the Chiefs won the toss and deferred. Tennessee marched the ball down the field before stalling and scored a field goal.

Also see:

This bet reeks of opportunity. If the 49ers win the toss, they’re going to take the ball and try to make Mahomes wait even longer than he has to for the elongated pregame show. You never hand the ball to a high-octane offense with a full tank. You grind their defense for 12 plays and seven minutes and come away with points.

If Kansas City wins, chances are they will defer with the idea that the Niners will run twice and put Jimmy Garoppolo in a 3rd-and-something situation – potentially getting the ball back quickly and having the advantage of an opening second-half drive after a 45-minute preparatory halftime.

Either way, the 49ers are likely to have the ball first and will have one more opportunity to score twice before the Chiefs until one of them does.

Take San Francisco (-106).

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Super Bowl 2020: First Half Money Line

Analyzing 2020 Super Bowl prop betting odds and lines for the first half money line between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs.

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The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs meet at Super Bowl LIV on Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the betting odds and lines at BetMGM to see which side will be leading after the first half.

Super Bowl LIV first half money line

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 12:45 p.m. ET.


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People say that championships are decided in the second half but, leaving out the three first-half ties, the team with the lead going into halftime has a 38-12 record in the Super Bowl.

Throughout the season, the Chiefs have been a better first-half team:  Kansas City has a +7.9 point differential compared to San Francisco’s +5.4 point differential. The Chiefs have a higher first-half possession share percentage at 49.5% versus 49ers’ 49.1%. Powered by offensive eruptions, the Chiefs have jumped out to a lead in the first half in three of their last four postseason games, scoring 21, 28 and 24 in those games. Also, the Chiefs have led going into halftime in 13 games, while the 49ers have led in 11 games after the first half.

Also see:

However, where I give the 49ers the edge, is their ability to play balanced football and the Chiefs’ struggles against the ground game. Granted they did well against Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry in the AFC title game—giving up just 69 rushing yards on 19 attempts. However, they were 23rd in rushing yards allowed per game, 29th in yards per rush and the 29th-most efficient rush defense plus had the 28th ranked defensive line in adjusted line yards, according to FootballOutsiders.com.

Furthermore, I’m going to take a glass half empty approach to factoring the Chiefs’ postseason first-half leads into this handicap. While they’ve held the lead in three of their past four playoff games, the Chiefs have also fallen behind by double-digits in three of those first halves. Their defense is ranked 28th in first quarter points allowed, and the 49ers are ranked third in first quarter points scored. San Francisco’s second-ranked defense in points allowed in the second quarter (actually tied for second with the Chiefs) should help rein in the Chiefs trademark second quarter onslaught. So basically the 49ers should be able to jump out to an early lead and utilize the run game to hold that lead.

BET 49ERS (-106) ON THE FIRST HALF MONEY LINE. 

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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2020 Super Bowl Prop Betting: 49ers-Chiefs first half totals

Analyzing 2020 Super Bowl prop betting odds and lines for the first half point total between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs.

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The public has been leaning to the Over for Sunday’s Super Bowl LIV at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs are expected to light up the scoreboard, with a projected points total for the game set at 54.5 at BetMGM. As far as the first-half total is concerned, that’s currently sitting at 26.5, so jump on it if you’re expecting a high-scoring affair, too. It’s very favorable at less than half of the full-game projection.

During the regular season, the 49ers registered 15.7 points per game in the first half, while yielding 8.4 points. They have logged 18.0 points across the past three games before halftime, while allowing just 3.3 points defensively.

For the Chiefs, they allowed just 10.4 first-half points during the regular season, although they have coughed up 16.0 points in the previous three outings. Offensively, QB Patrick Mahomes and company rolled up 17.6 points per game in the first half during the regular season, topping the charts in the NFL. That includes an impressive 19.7 points per game in the past three outings.

2020 Super Bowl first half total odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 12 p.m. ET.

Line Over Under
24.5 -134 +110
25.5 -129 +105
26.5 -115 -106
27.5 +105 -129
28.5 +120 -154

New to sports betting? A $10 bet at -115 would return a profit of $8.70, while a $10 bet at +110 would generate a profit of $11.


Special sports betting line for the big game

Bet $1, WIN $200 (in free bets) if either team scores a touchdown during the big game February 2, 2020. Regardless of the outcome, you win with a touchdown! Bet now.

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How the 49ers and Chiefs have fared so far

Looking to the first half of the NFC Championship Game, the 49ers fired out to a 27-0 lead over the visiting Green Bay Packers. RB Raheem Mostert led the charge, rolling up three rushing touchdowns (36 yards, 9, 18), but you can expect the Chiefs defense to key on him and try and shut his production down like they did for the most part against Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry in the AFC Championship Game.

Prior to that game, the 49ers threw up 14 points in the first half while allowing 10 points to the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Divisional Round. It’s fair to say the Chiefs have a higher-octane offense than either of those teams, particularly in the pass game, so it will be an interesting first 30 minutes.

Also see:

For the Chiefs, it was all offense and not much defense in the first half of their two postseason games so far. Remember, they fell behind against the Houston Texans by a 24-0 margin before rattling off 41 unanswered points, including 28 to close out the first half for a gaudy total of 52 points in the first 30 minutes. In the AFC Championship Game the first-half total also cashed, as the Chiefs again fell behind 17-7 before posting the final 14 points to take a 21-17 lead into the break.

If you’re playing the first-half total, the OVER 26.5 (-115) is the most intriguing total on the board. It’s fair to say we’ll see at least three touchdowns, and PKs Robbie Gould and Harrison Butker are very dependable, while also kicking in fair weather in South Florida.

Want action on this game or prop bets? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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2020 Super Bowl Prop Betting: First quarter points total

How many points will be scored in the first quarter of the 2020 Super Bowl? Analyzing the 49ers-Chiefs betting odds and lines, with picks.

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Super Bowl LIV is expected to be a pretty high-scoring affair, as the San Francisco 49ers meet up with the Kansas City Chiefs Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. The projected points total for the game currently sits at 54.5 at BetMGM. The Chiefs are projected to score 28 points, while the implied total for the 49ers is 26.5 points.

But what about the first quarter of the game? It is typically the lower-scoring quarter, and the total for the first 15 minutes will typically fall below one-fourth of the game total. Let’s take a look at the betting options, and dig into some numbers to see which side would be best to take for the first quarter points total of Super Bowl LIV.

Super Bowl LIV first quarter total odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET.

Line Over Under
7.5 -175 +145
9.5 -167 +135
10.5 +105 -125
11.5 +105 -125

As you can see, the two teams are expected to combine for about 10 points in the first 15 minutes of action. Note that the payouts for the Over/Under 10.5 total are the same as the 11.5 total. While it’s highly unlikely the first quarter ends with exactly 11 points scored, we might as well take the extra point we’re being given. Therefore, use 10.5 if taking the Over, and 11.5 if betting the Under.

Let’s take a look at what the two teams have done so far this season during the first quarter.

New to sports betting? A $10 bet at -167 would return a profit of $5.99, while a $10 bet at +135 would generate a profit of $13.50.


Special sports betting line for the big game

Bet $1, WIN $200 (in free bets) if either team scores a touchdown during the big game February 2, 2020. Regardless of the outcome, you win with a touchdown! Bet now.

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How the 49ers and Chiefs have fared so far

There have been plenty of points scored early on in both Chief playoff games, as they have trailed 10-7 and 21-0 at the end of quarter number one in their two AFC playoff games. However, more than 10 points were scored in just five of their 16 regular-season games, and they didn’t clear the mark in any of their final seven games.

During that stretch, the Chiefs averaged 5.1 points during the first quarter, while they held their opponents to just 10 points total (1.4 per game). In those seven games, seven points or less were scored in the first quarter five times, though it happened just one other time over the course of Kansas City’s season.

As for the 49ers, there have been more than 10 points scored in the first quarter in 8 of their 18 games (including playoffs), but just three times in their last 10 games. The strong San Francisco defense has held its opponents scoreless through 15 minutes an impressive eight times, including in the NFC Championship against the Green Bay Packers.

Using 7.5 points as the cutoff, the 49ers have landed Under that number just five times on the season. They have surrendered a total of just 73 points in the first quarter (4.1 per game).

Also see:

The Chiefs and 49ers have each played to 10 points or less in the first quarter in the majority of their games this season. For both teams, it has been a more common occurrence during the second half of the year. Therefore, UNDER 11.5 (-125) looks like a solid play here.

Want action on this game or prop bets? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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How to bet on the coin toss in Super Bowl LIV

How should you bet on the Super Bowl LIV coin toss?

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One of the most popular prop bets of the Super Bowl will be the coin toss.

It’s also one of the most difficult to predict because it’s purely luck. Neither the San Francisco 49ers or Kansas City Chiefs will have any impact on the flip, other than the fact that San Francisco (the visiting team) will be the one calling heads or tails; and, unless you’re superstitious, that doesn’t impact which side of the coin will be face up.

So should you bet on the Super Bowl coin toss? And if so, is heads or tails the better call?

The former is completely up to the bettor, while the answer to the latter can be surmised by looking at past history. For starters, though, let’s take a look at BetMGM‘s betting lines for heads and tails – which are predictably the same:

  • Heads -104
  • Tails -104

New to sports betting? -104 juice means if you bet $10 on either heads or tails, you’ll profit $9.62.

Looking back at past Super Bowls, tails has come up more often.

In the big game’s history, the coin toss result has been tails 28 times and heads 25 times. More recently, though, tails has been the better pick.


Special sports betting line for the big game

Bet $1, WIN $200 (in free bets) if either team scores a touchdown during the big game February 2, 2020. Regardless of the outcome, you win with a touchdown! Bet now.

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Since Super Bowl XLVIII, which was played in 2014, tails has come up five times in six years. The only time in that span heads came up was in Super Bowl LII between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons.

Right before that six-year stretch, however, heads was riding a hot streak. From Super Bowl XLIII to XLVII, heads won five years in a row, and six of seven years.

The nine years before that, tails dominated. From Super Bowl XXXII to XL, tails won eight out of nine times.

Also see:

So in the last 22 years, it’s been all about the streaks. Heads and tails haven’t alternated in four straight years since 1994-1997. If heads wins Sunday, it’ll be the first time the call has alternated four years in a row since then.

If you’re going to bet on the toss, there’s really no strategy. It’s all personal preference, but if you like to ride hot streaks, tails is probably the better pick.

After all, tails never fails.

Want some action on the coin toss or other prop bets? Visit BetMGM and place your bets on the big game.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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NFL Prop Bet Payday: 7 Super Bowl LIV player props to bank on

Analyzing seven Super Bowl LIV player props that should be exploited for easy wins.

The Super Bowl that many thought they were going to see has happened, as the pass-happy Kansas City Chiefs offense is countered by a San Francisco 49ers rush offense that has been nothing short of dominant in the postseason.

Here are seven yardage-related Super Bowl LIV prop bets we’re going to be all over:

Saint Patrick

Photo Credit: Paul Rutherford – USA TODAY Sports

The Over/Under on passing yards for Patrick Mahomes is 295½ (-125 over, 100 under), giving the impression that they want bettors to take the under. In his two postseason games, Mahomes has thrown 35 passes and completed 23 in both – throwing for 321 and 294 yards. It’s a big number to hit, but Mahomes won’t get conservative against an attacking defense that leaves cornerbacks on an island. Take the Over.

King James Version

Photo Credit: Kirby Lee – USA TODAY Sports

If you combine both of his postseason games, Jimmy Garoppolo has had a number similar, albeit short, to his passing yardage Over/Under of 238½ (-112 for both the Over and Under). In two games, he has COMBINED to throw just 27 times for 208 yards in eight quarters.

The 49ers are going to try to do what got them to the Super Bowl and not re-invent the wheel in the biggest game. The only logical way Garoppolo hits the over is if the 49ers fall behind by double digits early and forced to throw. That hasn’t happened yet in the postseason; they will try to establish the run and keep it established. Take the Under.

King of the Hill

Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff – USA TODAY Sports

There is no more dangerous receiver in the league in terms of big plays as Tyreek Hill. Because of his big-play ability, he consistently gets a big number and this week in no exception at 74½ yards (-112 for both the Over and Under). But, the reality of his situation is that he hasn’t hit that number in his last seven games, posting weekly yardage totals of 0, 55, 62, 67, 41 and 67. The 49ers may try to let cornerback Richard Sherman go one-on-one with him, but more likely is rolling a safety his way and making Mahomes look to other receivers. Take the Under.

Curious George

Photo Credit: Kyle Terada – USA TODAY Sports

Two things go against George Kittle’s Over/Under of 70½ yards (-112 on both sides). First is that the 49ers have found the secret to their success is eating up the clock with long drives featuring an onslaught of rushes instead of passes. Kittle has just four receptions for 35 yards in two postseason games. Second, if the Chiefs defense is going to pay special attention to any receiver on the 49ers, it will be Kittle who gets double-teams. Take the Under.


Special sports betting line for the big game

Bet $1, WIN $200 (in free bets) if either team scores a touchdown during the big game February 2, 2020. Regardless of the outcome, you win with a touchdown! Bet now.

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Andy’s Travis

Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff – USA TODAY Sports

Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has been up-and-down over the last month or so because teams that don’t double him get burned and teams that do have the ability to shut him down. He has an Over/Under for receiving yards of 76½ (-112 on both sides). The feeling is that the 49ers are going to pay special attention to the deep portion of the field to prevent the splash play that can turn the tide with one throw. As a result, Kelce is likely going to settle into soft spots of the intermediate zone and catch a handful of passes or more, which should allow him to hit the Over.

I’ll Buy a Vowel, Pat

Photo Credit: Cary Edmondson – USA TODAY Sports

49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk is the world’s worst “Wheel of Fortune” puzzle name, but has a very attainable receiving yardage over/under of 12½ (-112 on both). The problem is that Juszczyk has had a role in the postseason offense, but it has been as a blocker. He likely would have to catch at least two check-down passes to hit 13 receiving yards and he has topped that number just once in the last six games and has no receptions in four of the six. Take the Under.

Where There’s a Williams, There’s a Way

Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff – USA TODAY Sports

The Over/Under on Damien Williams’ rushing total is 49½ yards (-118 for the Over, -106 for the Under). It’s a solid number because in two postseason games, Williams has yardage totals of 47 and 45 yards. But, against the Titans, he rushed 17 times. San Francisco’s defense is going to key on the downfield passing game and won’t be stacking the box. If Kansas City gets a lead, the Chiefs will look to run the ball more. This is a very attainable number, especially if Williams can hit the 15-attempt mark. Take the Over.

Run, Raheem, Run

Photo Credit: David Kohl – USA TODAY Sports

Against the Green Bay Packers, Raheem Mostert was almost unstoppable, rushing 29 times for 220 yards and four touchdowns. In the 49ers first playoff game against Minnesota, Tevin Coleman went over 100 yards. If San Francisco is going to have a chance of slowing Kansas City’s offense down, it will mean running the ball early and often. While Mostert’s straight Over/Under is just 60½ yards, there is an enhanced bet that pays out +450 if he tops 100½. That’s a nice return, especially with Coleman recovering from a significant shoulder injury that could greatly limit his playing time availability. Take the Over and hope for a big run or two to pad his stats.

Want some action in any of these prop bets? Visit BetMGM and place your bets on the big game.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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